Smart Money Is On Tom Brady For 2022 MVP

May 29th, 2022

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BY IRA KAUFMAN (aka The Sage of Tampa Bay Sports)

If this is indeed Tom Brady’s final rodeo in a Buc uniform, there’s only one way to send him out in style — another league MVP award and another Super Bowl ring.

Nothing less will suffice for the greatest winner the NFL has ever seen.

While we don’t know who will be crowned MVP, let’s assume it’s going to be a guy under center. Since 2007, 14 of the past 15 NFL MVP awards have gone to quarterbacks. The only outlier in that span is Adrian Peterson, who averaged a startling 6.0 yards per carry while running for 2,097 yards in 2012.

We also know team success almost always plays a pivotal role among the 50 voters assembled by the Associated Press, including yours truly. Peterson is also the last MVP to represent a club that won less than 11 games as the Vikings finished 10-6.

As a quarterback who plays for one of the league’s most talented rosters, Brady’s in good shape on both counts. His biggest problem is the fierce competition.

Aaron Rodgers is coming off back-to-back MVPs, giving him four overall. That ranks second all-time to Peyton Manning’s five awards.

Brady is tied with Brett Favre, Jim Brown and Johnny Unitas with three.

“Punk,” writes Ira Kaufman, one of the 50 selectors of the annual MVP award.

Rodgers is still around, and even though elite wide receiver Davante Adams is now a Raider, Green Bay should remain an NFC power. Rodgers may be a punk, but he’s skilled enough to go for the MVP three-peat and catch Manning at the top of the list.

Brady, who turns 45 in August, shows no signs of slowing down after leading the NFL in pass attempts, completions, passing yards and TD throws. Sacked on only 3 percent of his passing plays as a Buccaneer, he hasn’t taken many wicked hits.

That’s a tribute to a prideful offensive line and Brady’s quick release.

According to Caesars Sportsbook, Josh Allen has the shortest MVP odds at 7-1. After watching Allen lead Buffalo’s furious comeback bid at Tampa last year, Buc fans know how good Allen can be.

And unlike Brady, he can hurt defenses with his mobility.

Next up is Patrick Mahomes at 15-2. Tyreek Hill has taken his skills to South Beach, but the Chiefs have added some intriguing targets and former Buc Ronald Jones could re-establish himself as a No. 1 back in K.C.

The data says MVPs need numbers and Ws, writes Ira. Where will the targets go?

Brady is listed third at 9-1, despite some questions about his targets. Rob Gronkowski remains unsigned, Chris Godwin is coming off knee surgery, Antonio Brown is history and newcomer Russell Gage is nursing an unspecified injury.

The Wild Card

Rodgers is right behind Brady at 10-1 before we come to a 24-year-old wild card with a big arm and a huge upside. Justin Herbert is the fifth choice at 12-1. That’s quite a compliment for a guy who is 15-17 as an NFL starter, with 25 interceptions through two seasons.

Making just his third NFL start, Herbert staked the Chargers to a 24-7 advantage at Raymond James Stadium in 2020 before Brady rallied Tampa Bay to a 38-31 triumph.With no complementary ground game that day, Herbert completed 20-of-25 passes for 290 yards and three TDs against the eventual Super Bowl champs.

The Chargers are in a killer division, facing Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Derek Carr twice a year, but Herbert figures to be a viable MVP candidate if Los Angeles wins the AFC West.

Another MVP award would mark a suitable sendoff for Brady, who became the first unanimous MVP in 2010, when he threw 36 TD passes and only four picks. Brady also won the award in 2017 and 2007, when he fired a then-record 50 TD passes for an unbeaten Patriot team during a historic regular season.

Brady has also finished second four times and third on two occasions.

A year ago, Rodgers won in a landslide as the Packers captured the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Brady received 10 votes compared to 39 for Rodgers, with one ballot cast for the remarkable Cooper Kupp.

As one of the 10 who voted for Brady, I was swayed by his knack for raising the level of his teammates. His leadership skills dwarf those of Rodgers, who tends to pout when things go awry.

At 9-1, Brady seems like a smart bet for league MVP. It’s an important piece of hardware — even if his sights are set on that Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Ira Kaufman got his big break as a New York Giants beat writer in 1979 though some might say he got his break when he was hired by in 2016. Ira’s popular podcast can be found here and on many podcast platforms.

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Ira drives a 2020 Ford Escape (cherry red).

15 Responses to “Smart Money Is On Tom Brady For 2022 MVP”

  1. Goatfarmer Says:

    Rodgers did not deserve it last year. Punk is right. Gagger. Choke artist. Biotch.

  2. Mike Johnson Says:

    Nope. I disagree. Smart money is on praying Brady stays upright and whether
    this Defense can meet the challenges it faces to get better.

  3. Buczilla Says:

    Brady got robbed of the mvp last year. Even with Brady our players have to play twice as good as the next guy to get any recognition. Fire 95% of the voters, put Ira in charge to select new voters, and let’s bring some credibilty to at least one aspect of the nfl.

  4. Buc1987 Says:

    Eh Mike…. you bet with smart money, you don’t pray with it.

  5. Goatfarmer Says:

    1987 – ROFL! Gold my man!

  6. Cobraboy Says:

    It’s a sham of a travesty of a fraud to name MVP before the Super Bowl.

  7. sasquatch Says:

    Dumbest kind of prediction. How the hell can you project this? He deserved it last year and was snubbed. Offseason predictions are asinine pretty much across the board.

  8. Mr. Editor Says:

    A Super Bowl and an MVP would be a great way to go out, but I hope that this is not his last year!

  9. Craig Says:

    Put Burrow in the place of Rodgers and it looks better.

  10. Pickgrin Says:

    “Brady received 10 votes compared to 39 for Rodgers”

    WTF is WRONG with these voters Ira?

    2021 Tom Brady was #1 among QBs in all the important categories – attempts, completions, yards and TDs!

    Karen Rodgers was barely top 10 in some of those stats.

    Brady had a much better year than Rodgers and it really wasn’t even close – but the idiot voters saw it differently apparently (eye roll)…

  11. Goatfarmer Says:

    Rodgers enjoys time alone with male donkeys.

  12. Joe in Michigan Says:

    But, but, but…The Bucs would have to win games for Brady to win MVP.

    But, but, but…How are the Bucs going to win games with the worst coach since Lovie, according to some Bucs “fans”?

  13. 1#bucsfan Says:

    Really don’t understand how Karen won mvp last year over Brady. Didn’t Brady have better stats ?

  14. Mike Johnson Says:

    Say Buc1887, not a typo. Let me pray the way I want to.

  15. Goatfarmer Says:

    I’d love to pray with some smart money. I would accept truckloads of it to pray with.