Hot Streaks, Cold Streaks, Super Bowl Runs And Data

January 9th, 2022

Late-season trends.

Now this is a really cool story that sure gives Joe a chance to exhale.

Typing for BSPN, Aaron Schatz, the shot-caller at Football Outsiders, decided to do a deep dive on how teams that win the Super Bowl finish their regular seasons.

We have come to believe that if a team enters the playoffs hot, that’s a team to look out for. And we all remember how the Bucs flipped the switch after the late bye week last year and ran the table winning the Super Bowl.

This year, the Bucs just aren’t playing well down the home stretch. They got blanked by the slimy Saints and last week needed a Tom Brady miracle to beat the lowlife Jets with 15 seconds left in the game.

So are the Bucs doomed to repeat because they aren’t playing sharp football now? Schatz typed that a playoff team playing poorly as the season ends is OK. There is really no trend he can find that says hot teams win it all, or sputtering teams cannot.

When you put all that data together, you don’t really get a clear picture either way. It’s probably better to finish the season strong than it is to start off strong and stumble at the end. But the difference is small. A hot end to the season isn’t necessarily a sign of a team that’s ready to march to the championship, and a bad December doesn’t mean you have to write off your favorite team as it enters the playoffs.

Schatz offered up examples of teams this century that basically backed into the playoffs and won it all — and teams that were hot and shat on themselves and lost early.

Schatz cited the 2012 Baltimore Ravens, the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 2008 Arizona Cardinals as teams that backed their way into the playoffs. Baltimore and New Orleans won it all and Arizona took Pittsburgh right down to the wire before losing the Super Bowl.

Additionally, Schatz noted that the 2010 New England Patriots and the 2009 San Diego Chargers were hot as firecrackers entering the playoffs and they puked all over themselves in the postseason.

So in so many words, whatever happens today with the Bucs, Schatz would advise Bucs fans that a whole new season starts next week and we really have no idea how that will shake out.

28 Responses to “Hot Streaks, Cold Streaks, Super Bowl Runs And Data”

  1. Here's Johnny Says:

    Brady is the goat. Our defense needs to make stops in the playoffs. We need Shaq, LD and JPP badly. Its hard to imagine us winning the divisional round without them.

  2. Bird Says:

    Odds seem very small they can pull off without godwin / AB

    However , if someone can do it …its brady.

    They need lvd, lenny , jpp, shaq and others all back. Fresh legs.

  3. Defense Rules Says:

    So after all his research, Schatz concludes that anything can happen in the playoffs? Whodathunkit? Hope he didn’t spend too much time on that one.

  4. Says:

    It just matters which team has the healthier roster next week.

  5. Rico210 aka wutdaBucisthis Says:

    This is why I love this game. Any given Sunday. Health will be a major factor. Hopefully we can get past today clean.
    Go Bucs

  6. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    We must get healthy to win….we need Shaq, LVD & Lenny……

  7. Listnfrmafar Says:

    He missed the 2007 Giants vs undefeated Patriots. I’ve been trying to out a finger on it and I figured out why I am not a fan of this coaching staff besides the play calling. They are stoic statues that lack emotion. I like a coach that high fives players and gets jacked when great plays are made. I will excuse BA for fear of a stroke or injuring another achilles. The other two are just BLAH. Thank God they got Brady to cheer them on or get in their faces when the team is underachieving. Oh well it is what it is. GO BUCS!

  8. Hodad Says:

    The biggest factor is lady luck.

  9. Rico210 aka wutdaBucisthis Says:


  10. Bobby M. Says:

    Throughout the entire season we saw examples of how on any given Sunday, a much lesser team can knock off a playoff contender. I think it starts with how lucky you are with the health of your players, then execution….being at home….lucky bounces/calls…etc. The Jags beat the Bills, Lions beat the Cardinals, Jets nearly beat us….on any given Sunday in the playoffs we can be king of the hill or out. I’m just glad to see us in the playoffs, we have a shot at home. As a fan, that’s all you can ask for.

  11. Pickgrin Says:

    Listn – go watch clips of the sideline as TB hit Grayson for the TD last play of the Jets game. Coaches going crazy with excitement – BL especially.

    You sure seem to talk a lot of crap about our stellar coaching staff.

    Probably because you basically just got here and aren’t really a Bucs fan – more of a TB follower so I’ll “root for” his new team kinda “fan”.

    Some of us have been supporting this team through mostly ‘tough times’ for over 40 years…….. How long have you cared anything about whether the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win or lose?

  12. Show Me the TDs Says:

    Listnfrmafar, what a moron. You couldn’t be more wrong if you tried. Here’s four of the most stoic coaches you’ll ever see. Bill Belicheck, Andy Reid, Nick Saban, Bobby Bowden. Here’s four of the greatest coaches of all time. Bill Belicheck, Andy Reid, Nick Saban, Bobby Bowden. Amazingly, it’s the same list!!

  13. Listnfrmafar Says:

    Pickgrin & show, I am a TB/Gronk follower, why would I waste my time following a losing franchise? Are you really comparing this coaching staff to 4 of the greatest football minds ever? BA did nothing on his own until Brady took him by the hand last season and the other two? Please. I will give credit where credit is due, Bowles game plan for SB was epic. Other than that, not so much.

  14. Buc1987 Says:

    Listnfrmafar…thanks for explaining why you’re annoying AF….now go find another site to annoy people. Try Pewter Report or something.

  15. Bucs Win Says:

    BA won coach of the year twice and is 84-50-1 dude, get your facts straight.

  16. BucsBeBack (Artist formally known as: BringBucsBack) Says:

    Listn, you are aware of Belecheat’s record without Brady, right? It’s worse than BA’s without Brady!

  17. Listnfrmafar Says:

    WOW, now BA is compared to Belichick? Brady grew up in Belichick system, Brady will tell you it was Belichick who taught him situational football and discipline. I doubt BA could come off a losing season and make the playoffs with a rookie QB. BA couldn’t even make the playoffs with Jamais. Bradys last season they went 12&4 with a team that has NO way as.much talent as the Bucs and NO playoffs in fact a losing record 7-9. I put BA in the Mccarthy, Zimmer, Dungy, Rivera category. The other two not even top 10 in the OC, DC this season.

  18. DavidBigBucFan99 Says:

    We have Playoff Tommy and hopefully Lenny who know how to turn it up in the playoffs. You know no matter who he has to throw to Tom will have the boys ready to play!

  19. Tackleblockwin Says:

    I want to see our O keep a RB on the field more. Keep opposing defenses guessing and let TB12 use play action. No more 5 WR sets unless we are trailing by two scores. On D it is obvious. Get healthy, stay healthy, and play better.

  20. DavidBigBucFan99 Says:

    Linstn don’t put all the blame for 2019 on BA. Winston and all his horrible turnovers were a bigger reason for that debacle.

  21. Listnfrmafar Says:

    So when BA wins give him credit and don’t blame him for a undiscipline QB? Turnovers are lack of focus and discipline, a coaches job to fix that. The difference from a above average versus great coach is two words, WORK ETHIC, that’s where BA falls short, oh and keeping long time friends as coaches. Special teams is awful and was last year to.

  22. Buc1987 Says:

    Listnfrmafar…like I’ve said before you don’t belong here….you belong on a Pat’s site and I believe you’re just here to troll.

    Go away.

  23. Listnfrmafar Says:

    Brady doesn’t play for the Pat’s anymore. Don’t worry next season when Brady is gone I will revert back to trying to get the warm and fuzzies for Mac Jones. That is unless Brady finishes his career as a 49er.

  24. Bird Says:


    Dude. Get bent. All these pats fans on here talking smack. Our losing franchise ? So what. Its true. We have been the yucs. Yungry. But we are still real fans. We arent going to be fans of another team when our favorite player leaves To another team.

    And we got 2 super bowls so its not like we are the bills. 😂

  25. stpetebucsfan Says:

    “WOW, now BA is compared to Belichick? Brady grew up in Belichick system, Brady will tell you it was Belichick who taught him situational football and discipline”

    Do FACTS count in this debate?

    FACT…Belichik record WITHOUT Brady is a LOSING coach and it’s not even close!

    Before Brady…41-55 reach .500? Hell that’s .427!!! One winning season out of his first six in Cleveland and NE and FIVE LOSING SEASONS!!!

    Brady leaves last year and Belichick AGAIN is a losing coach! Add that 7 dash 9 to his 41-55 and you have a 48-64 .428 LOSING RECORD WITHOUT BRADY.

    His record this year will improve that a bit but odds are that he has been such a loser without Brady that’s he’s run out of time to get his career record to .500 without Brady as his QB.

    Can you imagine ANY coach called GREAT with a LOSING RECORD?

    Meanwhile how did the loss of Belichik’s “great” leadership and game planning harm TB12. Oh an SB and he’s sitting at 23-9 a .660% win % without Belichick.

    Now if you wish to look at these facts and still believe Brady needed BB more than the other way around you simply do not accept SCOREBOARD! Brady has it ALL OVER BB.

    I do concede that BB is an HOF worthy Defensive Coordinator…both for Parcells and later for Brady.

  26. Listnfrmafar Says:

    Ok what’s BA’s record with the Bucs without Brady? C’mon, Belichick went 11-5 the year Brady got hurt and went 3-1 during his 4 game suspension. I’m not saying Brady wasn’t a big factor toward the Patriots success but please you can’t discount Belichick’s coaching.

    Out of respect to all the real Bucs fans I will not post any negative comment from here on. I want your team to repeat and it would bring me great joy if Bucs played Pats in SB and won. Go Bucs!

  27. Ne+ bucs fan Says:

    Listen from afar,,I’m with you,,if Brady went to Dallas I’d be a Dallas fan,,if he went to the saints,, actually nevermind,,I became a bucs fan,, with them on the slimy saints,,but pickgrin we can’t be bucs fans cause we haven’t followed them for more than 10 years,,I’ve never said one bad thing or would I ever,,I see myself as a guest on this site,, but why does it bother you that we followed the goat,,wish the bucs continued success post Brady,,I did become a bucs fan because of Brady,,true,, welcome us,, don’t shat on us

  28. Ne+ bucs fan Says:

    But listen from afar,, you said some mean stuff,,lol