How Will The Bucs Lose In The Playoffs — If They Lose?

December 17th, 2021

Bucs DC Todd Bowles

It’s hard for Joe not to think the Bucs will be playing in Los Angeles in February. Why?

Well, first the Bucs have the best record in the NFL eight days from Christmas. Joe never thought he would see the day. And since we are supposed to be in a good mood during the holiday season, Joe is thinking positively and dreaming of another long run in the playoffs.

Maybe another Super Bowl?

But as Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders points out, statistics demonstrate teams that make the postseason often lose at some point (obviously). So he tries to get a read of how each playoff-bound or playoff-hopeful team may/will trip up.

NFL Week 15 – According to analytics, 93% of the NFL teams that reach the postseason end up losing. Therefore, your favorite team will almost inevitably lose sometime in the postseason. And Walkthrough is here to bring a little sunshine into your midweek by telling you why:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Too many first-down running plays; punts and field goals in manageable conversion situations; not to mention some plays where Tom Brady just heaves the ball downfield in search of a penalty, only to have that penalty offset because one of his linemen held.

Well, if the Bucs are going to trip up (provided common sense rules the day at One Buc Palace and furniture-tossing, bicycle-throwing, fake-V-card-flashing Antonio Brown returns), it won’t be because they aren’t scoring points. It will be the defense.

The fact the Bucs lead the NFL in missed tackles is mindblowing. How can a team with the best record in the NFL a week before Christmas lead the NFL in missed tackles. That just doesn’t compute.

The defense will be the Achilles heel if the Bucs get bounced Somehow, someway, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has to come up with a scheme where the defense doesn’t crumble the moment a starting corner walks off the field. Frankly, Joe’s seen enough of that.

36 Responses to “How Will The Bucs Lose In The Playoffs — If They Lose?”

  1. Bbro Says:

    Defensive backs failing to stop the pass.

  2. Defense Rules Says:

    Aahh yes, I see a ray of optimism this morning. Oh wait, I read it wrong. No sunshine there. Of course, same held true last year when we were 7-5 then ran the table. Hmmm, how’d that work out?

  3. 2021 Year of the GOAT Says:

    Of course, same held true last year….. TB12, Will play a huge role in motivating everyone …. the question is how bad do you really want it. Our defense was playing like there hair was on fire in the playoffs 2020. 1. They believed they could do 2. They wanted it bad enough.

  4. JimBuc2 Says:

    Looking at you Jameel Dean. If Alex Cappa can play half a game with a broken arm, howcome a headache sends you to the sidleline? Be glad Bill Parcel aint your coach. Nutup man.
    Go Bucs!

  5. Medicated Pete Says:

    Failure to draft CB’s in rd #2 & #3 and poor Special Teams although Licht said “this is a SPECIAL TEAMS DRAFT” lol smh.

  6. Larry Says:

    Don’t sleep on the Saints. The Bucs have lost to teams with a running QB and the Saints still have a good defense. Anything is possible in the playoffs. Good and bad.

  7. BuccaneerButters Says:

    I’m not worried. There’s no way we take our foot off the gas in the playoffs

  8. Bucsfanman Says:

    Missed tackling is obviously a big issue, as is staying healthy. As Jim points out above, we need our starters.
    I’m going to go off the beaten path and say it will be the offense, despite all the scoring. There HAS to be balance. There HAS to be the threat of a run-game. One-dimensional teams rarely, if ever, do well in the playoffs.

  9. Bobby M. Says:

    From a talent perspective there’s not a single back up CB on our roster that has the potential to be a starter which is why we end up in zone so often when a starter goes down. Bowles is merely trying to force the other team to drive the field, burn clock and ultimately have to settle for a FG. IMO….he’s handcuffed in that regard. It is what it is, we’ve had back to back winning seasons, should win the division, will make the playoffs….as a fan that’s all you hope for. Much like last year, you get in the playoffs and anything can happen.

  10. Bob in valrico Says:

    Tanier has a point .IMO when the offense sputters for whatever reason, its puts our defense on the field too much. Its been a patchwork defense through much of the year due to injuries mainly to DB’s and LB’s. Good running teams often have two good running backs that complement each other. I think we need some new wrinkles in the run game. It is very dependent on Fournette. What will the team do if teams figure out howto shut him down or he gets injured;

  11. alton d green Says:

    I keep using the same analogy. Double their best receiver and hit the tight end at the line. If we meet the Chiefs again this year. I like to call it the “Bilichick Recipe” When I saw the highlights of the KC and LA last night, I had to wonder if the Charger’s coach has ever seen the Chiefs play. How in &^$# does a tight end get 191 yds????????????????????? Double Tyreek and hit Kelce at the line. Mahome boy reminded me of when i was a kid playing football in the school yard. He just ran around in circles all night knowing that SOMEONE will eventually get open hahahhaha

  12. Stanglassman Says:

    Jimbuc does someone really need to explain to you the difference between a head and arm injuries?

  13. alton d green Says:

    this is the best and most accurate article Joe has ever posted. Those constant freakn 1st down runs. You have to do it sometimes but not 90% of the time. It’s like playing poker with 3 cards showing all the time. We are getting better at challenging the receivers. We used to play 10 yds deep and stand there and wait for the receiver. Slingblade could get a 1st down playing like that hahaha

  14. Beeej Says:

    We simply don’t match up well against the Saints. Aside from that, they ALWAYS seem to know what plays we’re running on both sides of the ball

  15. Alanbucsfan Says:

    The defense will be the Achilles heel if the Bucs get bounced –
    It will depend on injuries and turnovers.
    If Bucs D is relatively healthy and the offense doesn’t turn it over, then Brady will find a way to lead the team to another SB.

  16. Jerry Says:

    X-favor is COVID. Over 100 players have now tested positive in the past week across the league. The Browns are down to their 3rd string QB. Vaxed or unvaxxed doesn’t matter. Omicron can go around it. How long before this outbreak hits the Bucs and we have entire positions out?

  17. Doctor Stroud Says:

    We don’t know what Jamel Dean went through, but I suspect that it was more than just a “headache”. We should be more supportive of players who are suffering from head injuries. Consider this recent report about the late Vincent Jackson, whose family had his brain analyzed after his death: “Jackson never had a diagnosed concussion during his 12-year NFL career, something he said was “fortunate.” But while diagnosed concussions are contributors to CTE, less severe but repeated hits can also cause damage. According to the CTE Center at Boston University, around 20 percent of people who are diagnosed with CTE never had a diagnosed concussion.”

  18. PSL Bob Says:

    No matter how many times you say it Joe, it doesn’t make it so. The Bucs do not have the best record in the NFL. By your logic, you could say either Arizona or Green Bay have the best record in the NFL. You can’t have 3 teams, each with the best record. They are tied for the best record. I love where the Bucs stand, but would rather see both the Cards and Packers drop one and the Bucs win out, so we could rightfully say the Bucs have the best record in the NFL.

  19. Listnfrmafar Says:

    Simple answer if the Bucs don’t score 30+ they lose. Yes the D played great in the Saint, GB playoffs & SB but Bucs still had to put up 30 in all except SB. Secret to success keep duct tape BA & BL’s mouths shut so Brady can do his thing and D get off the field on 3rd downs. Obviously penalties & turnovers come into play. Every offense sputters EVERY game, what team scores on every drive or every other drive? In the Bill’s game Bucs had one 4 & out in the 3rd qtr and 1 3 & out in the 4th. I couldn’t believe it until I did the math, D gives up 23 points a game, that’s a lot. I’m amazed they are 10-3.

  20. VabucSINCE’97 Says:

    Secondary going down with injuries 2 out of the 3 the only way we lose if we’re healthy we will be champs

  21. Tampabaybucfsn Says:

    If we lose, it will be turnovers, penalties & special teams…just like any other game

  22. Joe Says:

    By your logic, you could say either Arizona or Green Bay have the best record in the NFL.

    Exactly! No one has a better record than the Bucs. That’s just the plain simple truth.

  23. Joe Says:


    Those constant freakn 1st down runs. You have to do it sometimes but not 90% of the time.

    These annoy Joe too. But you know what? At the end of the day the Bucs are leading the league in scoring despite the running up the middle on first downs.

    So Joe cannot quibble too much. 🙂

  24. Biff Barker Says:

    Was not a fan of BL as a player. Not a fan of his as a coordinator either.

  25. alton d green Says:

    I cringe everytime I read that Tom has 10 int’s. I can name at least 4 that were not his fault. If you’d like to see why just google “passing sandbags for a hurricane” A person gets it in his hands and passes it to the next guy. Lennie just did that against the Bills. Tom put the ball right in his hands and he tried to pass it on. Thankfully, there wasn’t a defender there to intercept it. I have said for many years “TAKE THOSE DAMN GLOVES OFF AND CATCH THE BALL!!!!!!!” you’re catching a ball that probably doesn’t even weigh a pound and is full of air. You are not a brick mason. How many QBs have you seen with gloves on their throwing hand????

  26. sauron's eye Says:

    I see much more vulnerability on the defensive side of the ball. If we don’t have ALL the starters playing, we tend to be pretty bad on defense. That has been the story all season. Offense has been carrying and bailing out the team. The person who wrote the blurb did not watch much film.

  27. Vinny from Vermont Says:

    Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders makes several good points, and I do not believe that it is happenstance that his first observation is “Too many first-down running plays.” (especially up the middle).

    I realize that I am beating a dead horse, but it is my contention that way too often (80+ percent?) we are throwing that 1st down away with a run first strategy. It mystifies me as to what the logic is, especially when the opposing defense knows that’s what we are going to do.

    It would be different if PFF or someone could point to statistics that prove the effectiveness of this strategy, but I have consistently maintained that the yards gained on average would be less that 3 yards per carry. So, again we are looking at 2nd and long. Last I checked, we still have 3 downs to make a first down or punt to our opponent. So how in God’s green earth can we afford to p*ss away over 33% of our opportunities to keep a drive alive. PLEASE….someone prove me wrong!

    In a game where the smallest percent improvement or decline can mean the difference between winning or losing, and we can afford to throw away a first down because someone calling the plays has OCD?

  28. John Olmstead Says:

    At the current rate, the superbowl champion may be the team least impacted by covid.

  29. Steve fan Says:

    Someone like Todd Bowles needs to tell the defensive backs their job is to block passes. They may not know that. Standing safely in their assigned zone watching receivers make completions from 7 yards away will not cut it. Last night the Chief’s defensive backs were like shadows.

  30. Joe in Michigan Says:

    Medicated Pete, a few questions for you:

    1) Do you know more about the Draft than Licht and his scouts?
    2) What CB’s did you want?
    3) Are you sure that Trask and Hainsey are not assets for the future?

    If you can’t answer (by name) the CB’s you wanted in the 2nd and 3rd, like a lot of other JBF posters can’t, then you’re admitting you don’t know what you’re talking about.

  31. Cobraboy Says:

    On a positive note, I read there will be no more punishment for Brown and Edwards.


    Not that there was any doubt in my mind, although the casual Karen’s scream “Off with their heads!”

  32. Leighroy Says:

    According to analytics….. or you know, simple division 13/14=.93 LOL

  33. View from 132 Says:

    Nicely done Leighroy. Analytics = math

  34. Scooter Says:

    I think Arizona will get a 4th loss in one of their last 3 games. Packers have an easier remaining schedule. They face a backup QB at Baltimore and their only tough game left is at home against the Vikings.Last season the Bucs beat the Pack easy at home and at the frozen tundra in the NFC championship game. Maybe the Pack felt a Florida team would cave in at Green Bay in January. Aaron Rogers caved in both games from the Bucs defensive pass rush. Bucs match up good with the Pack, don’t want to play the Rams.

  35. Merlin Says:

    Again with the run on first down nonsense. Tampa runs on first down 26% of the time. Only 6 teams do so less often

  36. Merlin Says:

    22.8 points given up per game is not a lot. In fact it’s dead middle. And 1ppg away from top 10