Not In The Numbers: Brady Was Off
November 16th, 2020
Joe’s going to quote one of Joe’s favorite broadcasters at maybe his lowest point. “Pardon me while I stand up and applaud.”
Jack Buck, father of St. Petersburg-born Joe Buck, said this when Mark McGwire tied Roger Maris’ then home run record for a season. The year was 1998 and Buck was well past his prime, two years before his death at 77 years old. Joe still cringes thinking of this.
But it came to mind when Joe was reading the following from Sharp Football Analysis. Joe just wants to give stat geeks a Standing-O when they look beyond the numbers to the actual game.
Joe really, really appreciates it when (some) stat geeks tap the brakes and say, “Well, these numbers don’t make sense.” That’s not unusual for the Football Outsiders crowd, which is why Joe respects them a great deal.
It’s called having an open mind.
The Football Outsiders crew sprinkles in common sense with math unlike outfits that are total slaves to numbers — Joe’s looking right at you, you PFF tribe. They’ll stomp their feet and order you to believe the numbers because it is the absolute truth! You know, like how E.J. Biggers was one of the better cornerbacks in the game, and how Aaron Rodgers had a turrible game despite throwing five touchdowns and over 300 yards with no picks because GD-it, that’s what the numbers say!
That brings Joe to Dan Pizzuta of Sharp Football Analysis. Yes, it’s Warren Sharp’s outfit. Joe likes Sharp, a gambler stat nerd, who does a nice job peeling back the onion skins. Pizzuta did something Joe respects: he admitted the numbers do not tell the story in this case of park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, jet ski-losing Bucs quarterback Tom Brady.
Brady had a strong day yesterday, but Pizzuta writes that in reality Brady was off. And despite this, the Bucs blew out the Stinking Panthers. That’s good news for the Bucs and it’s evidence the Bucs have many ways to beat teams.
Brady was consistently bailed out by his receivers who turned some off-target passes into completions and Brady had some strange misses, especially early on in the game. He had Antonio Brown open downfield for what could have been a touchdown early in the first quarter and missed Mike Evans a few times around the goal line. Even his completed touchdown pass to Evans was a high fastball the receiver was able to bring in.
This could eventually be a positive for the Buccaneers, as it was on Sunday. This receiving corps is supposed to be the strength of the team and the ability to help the quarterback out should be included in that. That was certainly the case with some adjustments to passes and the ability to get open. The way the Buccaneers were built, they were supposed to be able to win in multiple ways and still stay competitive if one player or unit was off.
Pizzuta is right: Brady overthrew a few receivers for what would have been touchdowns. Even Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians said he thought the Bucs left 20 points on the field.
And Joe remembers Chris Godwin making a sick adjustment to a Brady pass along the right sideline when he had maybe a blink of an eye to react.
So yeah, the numbers say one thing. But as Pizzuta points out, watching the game can tell you something else.
November 16th, 2020 at 12:37 pm
Having the best WR group in the NFL means your QB can get away with some inaccuracy. A big reason why Brady signed here in the first place.
November 16th, 2020 at 12:45 pm
I saw at least 3 overthrow deep passes that all would have been TD’s. Bucs can’t afford to consistently be missing these deep throws. Leaving way too many points on the field. But they still often overcome their mistakes and end up scoring 40+ regardless. This years losses come from the qb being inaccurate and off the entire night.
November 16th, 2020 at 12:49 pm
I was waiting for this ridiculous article. Bailed out? Please. I watched the game too but I saw a different story. Brady was inaccurate deep which is a bit rare for him but that was his only blemish. The receivers made nice catches on some of his not great throws and they also dropped 4 passes that were right in the hands. As much as I love ME13, 2 of them were on him. It should be noted that he did make a sick catch for a TD. The drops and the nice catches even out. Brady wasn’t his greatest but he was definitely on point. I will not sit back idly while an inaccurate attempt is made at minimizing the amazingness of the GOAT. just enjoy 7-3 and realize that you are in the presence of greatness with TB12.
7-3!!!!
November 16th, 2020 at 12:51 pm
Bowles was asked what he’d observed about Brady in training camp. He said, “He has good misses.”
Brady missed a lot of longer throws yesterday, but he missed them in locations where the only person who could potentially make a play was the WR.
Tom is not willing to throw a 50/50 ball. It ensures the Bucs get another down and/or doesn’t give the other team any momentum.
November 16th, 2020 at 12:54 pm
Brady had too much mustard on some of his throws for the receivers to have a shot at catching it for a TD, but otherwise a great game from him.
November 16th, 2020 at 12:55 pm
@SlyPirate
Exactly. That’s not Brady’s style. And why should it be? This receiving corps is too talented to settle for 50/50 balls even if ME is great at them. It’s still way more risky than necessary. In my opinion, the time to complain was during the game with the rollercoaster of emotions that comes with it. Not after a dominating 46-23 in which our QB once again took great care of the football and put the team in position to win. I just think we aren’t used to being 7-3. It’s okay to accept that the team is pretty good. Despite the shock value, it’s okay to understand that at the age of 43 Tom Brady hasn’t lost a step or an ounce of power in that right arm.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:01 pm
Brady did seem off on some long balls. Couple bad drops around the field as well. That 3rd down grab by Godwin was one of the most WTF how did that happen completions I can remember. Amazing play by QB and WR. You have to figure with more field time the longer passes will be improved upon. A lot of rough edges that 20 yrs in NE had polished over need to be worked on. If that game was not the best it is likely the best is yet to come.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:14 pm
@cmurda: +1, right on.
How about the throw to ME13 that floated right to Mike, or the tight spiral right to Cam Brate’s hands at the goal line. Three TD passes, no turnovers, 46 points scored, and yet he was OFF? Thank God for that!
tickrdr
November 16th, 2020 at 1:23 pm
I live here in Charlotte and I would like to say that it was very windy yesterday. I believe on the two overthrown passes to Evans and I think Gronk, Brady probably put some heat on the ball to cut through the wind. If you noticed, both of those overthrows were going to the same end zone. Just my two cents.
Go Bucs!!!!
November 16th, 2020 at 1:33 pm
Also important to note there were several drops yesterday as well, incl. at least one that should’ve been a TD. Brady was uber-sharp but all things considered he played well. NEED to do better in the red zone.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:00 pm
brady has been inaccurate this year….some of it it timing but he’s missed a bunch this year….
i’ll take 46points, the W and a “off” day from brady…
GO BUCS!!!!
November 16th, 2020 at 2:03 pm
cmurda…exactly…I get a kick out of posters and such when they try to criticize the GOAT. You’re a Bucs fan, you have the GOAT and you still complain. smh
We all saw the overthrows. No big whoop though cause he had enough good ones to make up for it which is why they won.
Go Bucs!!!(Hopefully to the SB)
November 16th, 2020 at 2:04 pm
That hard fastball to Tyler Johnson that happened to hit one of Johnson’s hands was uncatchable.
It did prove one thing….Brady still has his fastball.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:12 pm
Tampabaybucfan
Dude. That was a missile. I still think it should be caught but I have borderline unreasonable expectations for receivers. Speaking of Tyler, I think the arrow is pointed up for that kid.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:35 pm
Overthrew some long ones, but had some great shorter throws drop. Was mostly good with room for improvement
November 16th, 2020 at 2:55 pm
Brady did start off a bit jittery. Worst pass of the day was the miss to AB for an easy TD. AB was wide open in the middle of the field. He makes that throw 99/100.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:21 pm
Yeah, Brady was off more so than he normally is — but in fairness he had a couple of drops as well. Two stand out in the endzone, one was to Evans and another was pretty much a perfect pass to Tyler Johnson. The Evans catch I’m thinking about was difficult, but you expect Evans to catch it – the one to Johnson was a straight fastball but it hit him right on the hands.
It’s hard to complain when you put up 47 points, but the Panthers defense was bailed out a few times by Brady missing guys – if those didn’t happen you’re talking about breaking the Bucs single game scoring record. Doing so in the den of douches in Charlotte, where good games go to die, would have been something.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:37 pm
If he starts missing guys short, then I will worry.
Although, I do wonder if the inaccuracies on the long ball are because he’s having to use more effort to make those throws than when he was younger.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:51 pm
I thought the same thing while watching the game. Regarding the ME 13 td pass. Brady made that catch waaaaay harder than it had to be. Missed a few open guys as well.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:51 pm
Joe that is brilliant stuff about EJ Biggers and Aaron Rodgers.
I want to thank you for exposing the fraud and lies from PFF. The BS you have shared with us over the years has taught me never to trust them. Keep exposing these frauds Joe. In sure you get new readers everyday…..and you are helping keep the fanbase educated about these clowns. This does not go unappreciated.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:57 pm
On more than a few passes yesterday it seemed that TB was throwing bullets when if he threw with a little more touch and less speed the result would have been better when the receiver was clearly open. It’s as if he were a pitcher he was trying to throw fastballs all the time rather than a couple of change-ups.
I know that chemistry is still a work in progress, so no worries for now….at least as long as they win, right? The next two are BIG games that will tell us a lot about our Bucs. They are a playoff team, but are they a title contender? Much yet to learn.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:01 pm
This is exactly what I said yesterday!
He had some bad misses AND Godwin and Brown both bailed him out of some bad throws.
I’m optimistic his accuracy will improve as the season goes on, especially in the long balls.
Isn’t it funny how deep throws used to be a huge topic of conversation when a certain other QB was here? I guess winning does cure all lol.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:03 pm
And yes the catch by Chris was amazing.
That whole first TD drive was amazing with 3 extremly tough throws and 3 extremely tough catches…..To Mike, Chris and then Brate in the endzone.
On the throw to Chris it kinda looked like Brady had nowhere to throw it so he just fit ot into a spot behind the DB where nobody can get it. Kinda just threw it away and figured maybe Chris could make a great play and get to it……..Tom amd Chris really seem to be clicking right now and I expect it to get better next week.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:08 pm
That miss to Brown was sickening.
Classic Brown route that Big Ben made ALL THE TIME.
Just throw it out in front of him damn.
Fitz did it to Jackson a few years back.
One of my biggest critics of Winston was throwing a fast ball down the seam when the are running right or left.
Just stupid.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:13 pm
Keep in mind that even though we’re in week 10, how much time has Brady actually spent with Godwin and to lesser extent Evans? I know Evans likes to go up high and catch those balls, but man, Brady really is putting them up – that catch by Evans in the endzone was amazing. The other pass that Evans dropped was much easier, but it was still behind him and a little high, if Brady had a bit more touch that was an easy TD – but still it’s a catch Evans generally makes. Overall they seemed to really be forcing the ball to Evans to try to get him some numbers – which some might have an issue with, but I do not. Evans has been hosed so far this year and rewarding him should be something the Bucs try to do when it’s not going to cost them a game. Also, if you force the ball to Evans, for the most part he’s going to come through and get you yards and points.
But as for Brady throwing those fast balls – fantastic! Favre threw fast balls constantly, it wasn’t on him to add ‘touch’, it was on his WR’s to catch the ball. The fact that Brady can still throw ‘too hard’ at 43 is an asset, not a detriment. IF the WRs can just, as a group, stay healthy and get into a routine of practicing, it should clear up any remaining timing issues. But also Brady was mad after last week, and his balls showed it.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:23 pm
Rod dont worry. Look at the last 4 games of the season. Mike is getting 1000 dont even worry about it. Heck we play the Falcons twice. He could probably net 500 yards in just tose 2 games if he really wanted to.
November 16th, 2020 at 5:22 pm
JimmyJack – Oh, I agree, I’ve also been pointing out he has right at 100 yards in PI calls against him, when factoring that into his pace, that’s 200 yards on the year alone. It’s going to be close on getting that 1000 yards, but I really do think they’re going to try to get it done.
As for the Falcons, while I think the Bucs will put up points, just keep in mind since Raheem has took over they’re 2-1, and should be 3-0 if Gurley just takes a knee like he was told to do. I don’t think those games are going to be pushovers, in particular since I don’t think the defense is going to be able to stop the Falcons offense, at least not until the 4th quarter when Matty Ice throws his big INTs.
November 16th, 2020 at 9:19 pm
Me thinks cmurda is a closet Pats fan, where do you live cmurda ? Revere, MA? Hopping on for a ride with Bucs fans ?
November 17th, 2020 at 12:38 am
No cmurda has been around here forever. Def not a pats fan lol
And I agree about Atlanta- can’t look past them like those are easy wins. They can always put up points.