Playoff Percentages Jump

October 28th, 2020

Postseason percentages.

If you are like Rays manager Kevin Cash and numbers on a computer screen dictate your every move, common sense be damned, then you should be a very, very happy Bucs fan this morning.

No, not because Cash choked away the last hope of the Rays winning their first World Series — he will have to wear that scarlet letter the rest of his life. But if you are a slave to numbers, the Bucs will make the playoffs.

If the Bucs beat the Giants on Monday night — they better! — the Bucs will have a 6-2 record at the midway point of the season. If you stretch that out to the end of the season, that means the Bucs could finish with 12 wins. You’re damn right that will get you in the playoffs!

After the waxing of the Raiders, a few numbers outfits think the Bucs are damn near set to play meaningful games in January. models have the Bucs with an 80 percent chance of the playoffs. The same outfit gives the Bucs a 28 percent chance of reaching the NFC title game. will put an even bigger smile on Bucs fans’ faces. Football Outsiders has the Bucs at 90.4 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 64.7 percent chance of winning the NFC South division.

And, a full-blown stat-geeky site that never met a number it didn’t like, gives the Bucs an 87 percent chance of the playoffs and a 65 percent shot at winning the division.

If/when the Bucs secure a postseason berth, there is a 100 percent chance Joe will get drunk that night.

13 Responses to “Playoff Percentages Jump”

  1. Colonel Angus Says:

    Cash sh!t the bed. You don’t take out a pitcher who’s dealing like Snell was last night. He opened the flood gates.

  2. August 1976 Buc Says:

    12-4 or 13-3 is a real possibility, I said 12-4 in a post earlier today. The 2 hardest games KC and the Rams are in Tampa, and so is the Saint game. But the Saints are a notch below those 2 teams GO BUCS!!!!

  3. ben Says:

    Joe .. does being drunk add to you being a happy man ? ok,If so just don’t drive :>))

  4. Swampbuc Says:

    Joe won’t be the only one getting drunk that night!

  5. PieRat Says:

    I can go with that. I do think we are post season bound, but FiveThirtyEight was preaching Trump had no chance of beating Hillary in 2015/16.

  6. Iamabuc Says:

    Well I said 12-4 way before this all started. On this here site. Look it up. (Not to brag. A glance at the schedule gave me that kinda vision)…lol

  7. 813bucboi Says:

    colonel and 1976

    i agree 100%!!!!!

    RAs HR set the tone offensively and blake set the tone as well….cash k!lled the mojo….

    GO BUCS!!!!!!

  8. Tye Says:

    I seem to remember a season the Bucs were 9-3 when the wheels came slap off the thing and they lost the rest of their games.

    I don’t see that with this team though.. I think 11-5 or better is quite likely..
    how far into the playoffs will be the true indicator as to whether this team is for rea or not!

  9. Rod Munch Says:

    This is one of those years where a team might end up 11-5 and not make the playoffs, even with the expanded spot. The NFC East is so bad they could run up the score for everyone else, in particular the NFC West which is matched up with them. Also while the Bears aren’t a legit 5-1 team, they’re still going to manage perhaps a 11-5 record by beating up the Vikings and Lions. In the South, we have the Saints, who people seem to be writing off for some stupid reason, you know they’re going to be at least 11-5, and the poor fellas out west, they might end up beating up on each other and hurting each others records, but I could also see the worst team there being 9-7, and ending up with two 11-5 teams.

    So in my mind we could have the Bucs, Saints, Packers, Bears, Seahawks, Cardinals and 49ers all at 11-5 or better, then a 5-11-1 Eagles winning the East. But the Rams could be there too, and frankly the Panthers are way better than anyone expected them to be. This is a year where there’s a bunch of really bad teams, which lets everyone else run up lots of wins.

  10. Rod Munch Says:

    FiveThirtyEight also gave Hillary over a 90% chance of victory about 2 months out (they tightened it up to around 70% by election day to cover their rears a bit), so let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

  11. Brandon Says:

    Our SB team went 3-1 in each quarter of the season, so far we went 3-1 and stand at 2-1 for the 2nd quarter.

  12. PSL Bob Says:

    I think in Joe’s pre-season polls, the majority of fans had the Bucs at 11-5 this year. Joe can verify. Contrary to Rod Munch, I think 11-5 will definitely get you into the playoffs. But with this roster, simply making the playoffs is a low bar. We will win the Division and have a good chance of getting a bye the first week of the playoffs. That should be the goal, having one of the top two records in the NFC at the end of the season.

  13. orlbucfan Says:

    538 needs to stick to sports predictions. The politics forecasting sucks. It will be a trip if the Bucs are the first team to host a Stupid/Stupor Bowl.