How Good Is Arians?
July 13th, 2019
Liked by big-time analyst.
So this week, Joe took the plunge.
Joe shelled out the cash to buy Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview. It’s pretty solid. Think of Phil Steele’s college football preview each year, only for the NFL.
For those unaware, Sharp is considered one of the top NFL geeks out there. He’s an analytics guy and a gambler of some repute. Each year Sharp is invited to speak at the “Sloan MIT Conference,” which is the top pocket protector convention for sports in the land.
Only top-shelf sharpies are invited to speak at the conference, often including Ira’s buddy Jay Kornegay, the shot-caller at the world-renowned Westgate Las Vegas Hotel & Casino SuperBook, which basically is the tail that wags the sports gambling dog across the country.
Regular listeners of the Dean of Tampa Bay sports radio show, “The Big Dog,” the late, great Steve Duemig, may remember Sharp. He was a regular guest of Duemig’s during the football season.
Joe will provide tidbits in the coming days from the preview, but what Sharp wrote about Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians is interesting. Sharp is a huge fan of Arians and believes, based strictly on data, Arians is among the cutting edge coaches in football.
“If you think Arians retired because his offensive philosophy wasn’t working, you are sorely mistaken. But his players couldn’t stay healthy. The 2016 Cardinals fielded the NFL’s sixth-most injured offensive line. derailing Arians’ deep-passing style. …
“2017 was more of the same. The Cardinals were the NFL’s fifth-most injured team, including the NFL’s fourth-most injured offensive line. They lost David Johnson for the season in Week 1. Carson Palmer went out for the year in Week 7. John Brown could never get right. Out of sheer desperation, the Cardinals traded for aging Adrian Peterson midyear and watched as he too landed on injured reserve after six games. …
“Arians coached his butt off to get that team to 8-8.”
A funny item later in the Arians’ piece was Sharp citing a line from Arians prior to the 2017 season. Arians, per Sharp, indirectly took a very public swipe at Cardinals general manager Steve Keim for assembling a rotten group of receivers. Arians said he had “maybe two” receivers who were NFL quality.
And despite Sharp’s obvious admiration for Arians, Sharp writes, in so many words, the Bucs hiring Arians would be sort of like hiring Chester Nimitz to captain the S.S. Minnow. Sharp forecasts six wins for the Bucs this year.
July 13th, 2019 at 12:10 am
You paid to find out he gives us six wins? *pffft* When will this nightmare end? I’m afraid I’m runnin” outa time.
July 13th, 2019 at 12:20 am
Arians is a very good coach. However, he is not a miracle worker.
The O-Line, the QB and the secondary will have to seriously overachieve for Arians to turn this ship around. I wish him luck
July 13th, 2019 at 1:31 am
“the top pocket protector convention for sports in the land”-nice
July 13th, 2019 at 2:04 am
“… the Bucs hiring Arians would be sort of like hiring Chester Nimitz to captain the S.S. Minnow.”
.
.
Another nice one.
July 13th, 2019 at 2:15 am
We have had a ton of coaches since Gruden. Apparently They all sucked. This one sucks until he proves otherwise. Ready to get camp started. Not blowing sunshine up anyones backside until they earn it.
July 13th, 2019 at 2:19 am
Quote from article, “But his players couldn’t stay healthy. The 2016 Cardinals fielded the NFL’s sixth-most injured offensive line. derailing Arians’ deep-passing style.”
And the Bucs decided to not to draft any Olinemen? No big free agency or trades for an Olinemen? WTF
July 13th, 2019 at 2:19 am
Man the Buc’s news is going as fast as Berry is over Nawlins.
July 13th, 2019 at 2:29 am
Arians Offensive requires the Quarterback to stay in the pocket a few seconds longer, meaning the Olinemen will have to stay in play a bit longer – more risk to injury. And we decided not to add anymore descent Olinemen in the draft or free agency.
Just curious if Arians believes we have any descent backups much less a descent starting right side?
July 13th, 2019 at 3:12 am
Best Line of the Year Award goes to … “Bucs hiring Arians would be sort of like hiring Chester Nimitz to captain the S.S. Minnow”. Incredibly descriptive, to those who’ve studied Admiral Nimitz role in WWII and remember ‘Gilligan’s Island’.
Warren Sharp’s prediction of 6 wins MAY very well come true; no way to know at this point obviously. But going from 6 wins to 8 wins or even 10 wins isn’t as big a stretch as some might think. For instance, scoring a TD instead of settling for a FG (4 point differential) would’ve won us FOUR more games last year (lost the Steelers-Bengals-Giants games by 3 points and the Falcons game by 2 points). Settling for a FG instead of scoring a TD was the margin of victory, and the difference between going 5-11 versus 9-7. Or looked at from the defense’s perspective, allowing 1 TD in each of those 4 games versus stiffening and forcing our opponent to settle for a FG represented the margin of victory.
For all practical purposes, Arians broke even his last 2 years with the Cards. And he did it as you said Joe with a team riddled with injuries both years. That tells me a LOT about BA’s coaching ability. Sharp’s right; Bruce Arians is “among the cutting edge coaches in football”.
July 13th, 2019 at 4:11 am
If Arians is truly as good as Sharp says (I’m hoping so), then I have to think that will count for more than one win.
The offense should be as good this year as Koetter’s. Maybe better, if they have better balance and stay healthy. Oh, and find a RG.
The defense… can it really be worse? We had Mike Smith’s soft scheme and injuries all over that defense. These rooks and prove it players partnered with new coaches, new culture, new scheme, and the Suh swap might just make this a serviceable defense with room to grow in the future.
I don’t think Arians would tank this season as it would likely cost Jason Licht and Jameis their careers here. So I will assume he is going all out and bring no less than 7 wins. I’ll take the over 6.5.
July 13th, 2019 at 5:16 am
7-9 and I’m sticking with it
July 13th, 2019 at 5:24 am
Ha ha. I read that as Warren Sapp at first and I was terribly confused.
July 13th, 2019 at 6:34 am
Jean Lafitte Says:
July 13th, 2019 at 12:10 am
You paid to find out he gives us six wins? *pffft* When will this nightmare end? I’m afraid I’m runnin” outa time.
lol I live near Detroit who’s fans have been frustrated for 65 years!
July 13th, 2019 at 6:34 am
We have another coach that likes to go deep in the passing game. We
need some pieces on the right side of the line. At minimum we need a replacement for
Benonoch and a sub for Dot in the running game. We are going to need
somebody with equal or better pass blocking skills to Dot in the near future.
At this point ,I wonder if we have too many swinging doors in pass blocking
for the “No Risk it No Biscuit style to be successful.
That said , we may have to revert to the intermediate passing game until
the O Line is fixed. Not to mention this is where Jameis is most successful,IMO.
July 13th, 2019 at 6:35 am
Well…..finally the Bucs are underdogs!!!
July 13th, 2019 at 7:12 am
Wow! Richie Incognito is more f’d up than Tyler Durden but he can block. Lord forgive us for our trespasses as we forgive those who trespass against us.
July 13th, 2019 at 7:16 am
12 days….Talent > Coaching ….
July 13th, 2019 at 7:24 am
No question arians coaches his butt off and knows how to connect with players.
Most qualified coach we’ve had since Gruden
Two things still concern me about comments above :
1) arians will not be calling plays
2) it talks about cardinals teams struggles after injuries. Let’s face it , the Bucs depth is not great and an injury here or there could be a disaster ( example – injury to Ali Marpet – injury to mike Evans – injury to Lavonte – injury to Suh)
With that said , looking forward most to Arians influence on Jameis . QB is by far the most important position on the field. No question football is a team sport. But with rules in favor of the offense now , QBs are more responsible then ever on the outcomes of games. I will still put our receivers and tight ends up against any team in NFL even with loss of Hump and DJax
I hope that arians can take Jameis out of that middle of the pack group. We need a top 15 QB performance and top 10 or 12 even better.
8-8 bucs
But
9-7 would be even better. . Just think they need another year or two of bringing in arians and Bowles guys to transform team to their styles.
July 13th, 2019 at 7:27 am
BA doesn’t care hes on paid vacation. Win or lose he will retire again within two years.
July 13th, 2019 at 7:31 am
DB55
He wanted to cut his dead fathers head off at the funeral home . And was threatening to shoot anyone that tried to intervene.
This is after he thought the NSA was spying on him at the gym so he thru a dumbbell at the guy
And he blamed his grandmother for his fathers death so he punched a hole in her wall
Yah …that’s a guy we need on the team.
He is one wrong act from being banned from nfl forever. He is so unstable. Can’t beleive any team would want this crazed individual on his team.
July 13th, 2019 at 8:24 am
I LOVE that nobody is giving us a chance! For I don’t even know how many seasons we “won” the offseason. We were NFL Network darlings. Now, we’re the “6 wins if we’re lucky” team.
GOOD! Nobody will be expecting us.
Arians is a Hokie! You’re going to find out.
July 13th, 2019 at 8:30 am
Incognito needs help more than he needs football at this point. Two games
for somebody that is a danger to himself and others ? Go figure.
July 13th, 2019 at 8:31 am
If all the star’s in the night sky align perfectly and no long term injurie’s prevail i see the Bucs record this year at 8-8 and being honest sport’s fans i will take it. So it was said so it is written.
July 13th, 2019 at 8:32 am
What a disaster and for the Buc Fans, just a huge waste of time!!!!!!! 6 wins???????? How is that any imporvement????? They should all be fired if they embarrass themselves like that!!!!!!! The last regime got 5 wins with a lying, suspended QB, and massive injuries on the defensive side, only to face the highest ranked in the nfl!!!!!!!!!!!!! The schedule is way softer than last year, and ole coach stale biscuit is going to fail!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Years to late, but hopefully the Glazers just hit the reset button at one buc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2019 will reveal answers to the sheep, that the “real” fans already know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
July 13th, 2019 at 8:33 am
“Anybody know what will happen if Leftwhich is terrible calling plays? What happens after 3 games and our OC cant move the offense and score
Is our semi retired Delegator going to step out of the Golfcart and coach the players and call plays or is he going to just delegate?”
Kobe Faker
July 13th, 2019 at 8:52 am
“Interesting QB draft comingup if JW and the Bucs falter
Bucsfans will be watching the top college QBs saturdays with anticipation. This coming draft will be utmost momumental level ever in the history of this francise if we bypass a QB
*The Realist will be watching every Clemson Tigers games with a long blond Trevor Lawerence wig”
Kobe Faker
July 13th, 2019 at 9:36 am
2012 Vikings improved from 3-13 in 2011 to 10-6 in 2012.
How did they do it under head coach Leslie Frazier?
Well, they had a running game- AP ran for 2000 yds.
And who did they draft that year? 2 safeties, a kicker and an OLineman.
Again, OLine roster for Bucs is not completed yet- expect another transaction or 2.
July 13th, 2019 at 9:45 am
5-11 with a gm who took a 4-12 team and buried in the NFC South since he took over
July 13th, 2019 at 9:51 am
If Arians and his staff of 56 coaches can fix
The defense
The O line
The run game
Jameis
Kicking game
Tampa should put a statue of him in City Hall
5 or 6 wins maximum
July 13th, 2019 at 9:59 am
So youve got what he consideres to be one of tge best coaches in the league and expects the same results….riiiggghhht.
LETS GET THIS THING GOING, IT WAS ALWAYS COACHING!!!!!
July 13th, 2019 at 10:16 am
They said we were going to go 0-3 last year anything is possible any given Sunday !
July 13th, 2019 at 10:23 am
Bucs lost
Best pass rusher
Nearly 1600 combined yards and 10 TD’s from Hump and Djax
Capable backup that won 4 starts in two years compared to our starters 6-16 record in two years
Bucs didn’t add a pass rusher, a rb or o line help and people expect them to be better?
Don’t do drugs kids
July 13th, 2019 at 10:37 am
“This man is literally SICK. I do not wish to beat up on Incognito, just all the people who keep pimping for him here. That’s the ticket…let’s introduce some mental illness into our locker room.”
I say, if they had hired Incognito, he would have hunted down and destroyed JPP’s Ferrari before it sh!t canned the 2019 football season.
I wonder if he just hates prancing ponies or all horses? Could it have something to do with the Denver Broncos? Would D White’s horses be safe?
July 13th, 2019 at 10:48 am
This is the year to bet the ‘over’ for Win Total…
They will see us coming after this season.
July 13th, 2019 at 11:00 am
Warren Sharp is a scam artist. He no longer lists his yearly record on his website. Why? If he could win 60 per cent, he wouldn’t be selling picks, he’d be playing them and be a billionaire.
July 13th, 2019 at 11:04 am
@VA Tom, me too. I thought “holy cripes, Warren Sapp is a math genius”… and then re-read. Whatever Sharp (or Sapp) says, we landed the best coaching staff we could ask for… but who knows how many wins that will generate? Sure looks like 8-8 is possible… injuries or too much bad Jameis could make it worse… and creative D and just enough good Jameis could raise to playoff level. Injury bug, changed D scheme and schizophrenic QB play all defy statistical projections.
July 13th, 2019 at 11:35 am
Roughly same team went 9-7 just a couple years. I don’t get why fans don’t think they can do it again. Bucs are much better team this year. Coaching is a huge reason why.
July 13th, 2019 at 11:36 am
*years ago.
July 13th, 2019 at 12:03 pm
Alls I can say is..Arians has talked cash Sh** since his arrival here in the Bay. All hail Arians right? I can recall a lot of you posters here showering coaches named Koetter & Smitty with these same praises. Arians had better win. He forgets, us Buc fans are past desparado points. We will ride him out of Tampa quicker than hurricane winds!
July 13th, 2019 at 1:05 pm
BA or BS we shall see in september.
July 13th, 2019 at 1:56 pm
MJ, i showered Koetter, guilty as charged…HOWEVER I ALSO SAID HIRING MIKE SMITH WOUKD BE THE END OF HIS HEAD COACHING CAREER!!! GO CHECK THE COMMENTS!!!!
July 13th, 2019 at 2:31 pm
Lol who cares about an analyst forecast its irrelevant but even if true at 6 wins he’ll still always be head and shoulders above Dirk koetter and everyone else the past decade. It’s kinda dumb to forecast anything not knowing what kind of impact this new staff will have on coaches. Certain things motivate players ala Doug Martin only two good seasons, rookie year and contract year. Maybe guys will play out of their minds, who cares if its because of a possible big payday
July 13th, 2019 at 3:13 pm
“Bet the jockey, not the horse.”
July 13th, 2019 at 5:18 pm
On the hand Nimitz might have helped those folks on that island to build a seaworthy raft good enough to get them off the island and back home to a safe port.
Who knows! ;D
_________________
Go Bucs!!!
July 13th, 2019 at 6:12 pm
From a pure STIB perspective (phrase courtesy of the late great Chris Thomas), Arians is a win-win as there will be a higher percentage of overs to play this year with the Bucs versus some of the dreadful games to gamble on with numbnuts as coach last year.
-This is not financial advice and I am not a bookie. Please consult your own personal adviser as how to play each game week to week.
July 13th, 2019 at 7:59 pm
Dork Kutter is gone. Team will be much better!
July 13th, 2019 at 8:56 pm
Im gona go with 8-8 this year and thts being optimistic. I read somewhere that we hed the 6th easiest schedule. White will be the DROY for sures though.
July 13th, 2019 at 9:02 pm
@Loyal
The Bucs didn’t LOSE anything. Some players with offensive stats left…there is no NFL rule that says we’re not allowed to replace them.
I like Hump but he’s not a pimple on Godwins butt talent wise.
The Bucs did not draft a DE with a top choice…they did select a the best inside LB of the draft who blistered his 40 time…has size..athleticism and yeah…he’ll get a sack or two as will LVD and others from the back seven.
This team was totally cursed last year. Seriously! Coaching?
Star player suspended in a controversial manner bringing all kinds of upset to the start of the season and resulting in a QB controversy during the season. Two starting cornerbacks go down early replaced by raw…I mean RAW MEAT rookies. Our best safety who was just starting to play well gets injured…
Our kicking was beyond horrible and cost us 2-3 games last year.
We do not need a raft of great breaks…we need an absence of bad breaks and injuries and we’ll be fine. And I hope the kicker is at least average and doesn’t miss extra points and game winning FG’s from inside the 30.
July 13th, 2019 at 9:26 pm
We have the worst GM in the NFL so it doesn’t matter. 3-13 at best.
July 13th, 2019 at 10:22 pm
No we don’t have the worst GM in the NFL. BA is a great Coach and he likes Licht. Why do you think that is? Licht was a scout for BA and found diamonds in the rough for him, and BA knew exactly how to develop such players to turn their great potential into great production without having to spend big on Free Agents and to avoid having to draft all first rounders to have a strong OL like the Cowboys did and have not won a Super Bowl since, while the Patriots keep winning Superbowls with lower draft picks that they find who are diamonds in the rough that they fully developed. And Licht was a scout for the Patriots too! How many of our players are players with potential that never had it developed til now. So called experts often only predict based on past production statistically and don’t recognize undeveloped potential but BA does. Remember what he said about our players from the first and after watching three years of our practices and all our games. He will prove it to you this year!
July 14th, 2019 at 12:07 pm
IMO, there is a reason BA wanted to come to the Bucs, and not just because of Licht.
The guy knows football. I suspect he looked at the roster and saw a ton of unmet potential and thought “easy turnaround.”
He’s already been multiple “Coach of the Year” in the NFL, a high mark. Turn the Bucs around…and I truly believe he can and will…and he may be eligible for a bust in Canton for a career’s work.
That said, are there any coaches in the HoF that didn’t win at least one SB?
The Bucs have not had close to decent coaching since Gruden got the apple and road map.