Secondary And Improvement

May 25th, 2019

Health a key.

There are two ways one can look at last month’s draft.

One would be Bucco Bruce Arians thought the returning defensive backs were just one step above four piles of fresh feces.

The other would be that Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht (and perhaps Arians, too) didn’t trust the returning defensive backs to stay healthy.

And while Joe has rightly pounded former defensive coordinator Mike Smith for building the worst defense mankind has ever seen, Vincent Verhei of Football Outsiders pointed out something Joe has frankly overlooked.

The Bucs secondary was completely decimated by injuries last year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (46.4) had the second-most defensive back AGL we have ever measured. Nobody here missed the entire year, but they did undergo the following season-ending injuries:

* CB Vernon Hargreaves: labrum tear, Week 1
* S Chris Conte: PCL tear, Week 3
* S Justin Evans: injured toe, Week 10 (he did play with the injury in Week 13 but was limited to 25 snaps)

And that’s not counting the assorted back, groin, knee, and foot injuries that knocked M.J. Stewart, Carlton Davis, and Brent Grimes out for a total of 11 games.

Now Joe is confident upon reading this many Bucs fans will slam their pints of Bud Light on the table startling their Hooters waitress and perhaps spilling beer on their phones — careful now! — hollering that the Bucs secondary was trash to begin with.

Joe won’t dispute that. But if the starters were trash as some believe, how would one describe the backups? If a team is decimated at a particular position by injuries, it will suffer. There’s no way around that.

Could just the not-so-simple goal of staying healthy improve the Bucs secondary alone? Could the Bucs have just a competent secondary by avoiding injuries?

29 Responses to “Secondary And Improvement”

  1. Jonathan Limpchimpi Says:

    Looking forward to the premium picks Licht Weight spends on back-up secondary players in the 2020 draft. You can never have enough middling secondary players and a winning percentage of .3375 isn’t Licht’s fault!

  2. Bucsfaninchina Says:

    The frick is AGL?

  3. Joe Says:

    AGL = Adjusted games lost.

    Joe is not into voodoo stats where the word “adjusted” is used. That’s nonsense like Joe learned back in high school that you can take numbers and stats and twist them any way to prove a point.

    The focus of this element of the Football Outsiders’ story is that the Bucs were ravaged by injuries in the secondary last year.

  4. JGhoti86 Says:

    Yea Joe! You can’t just be throwing out AGL without describing to your audience what that is. All I gathered was it’s a percentage related to injury. Does that mean 46.4% is the percentage of snaps that our opening day starters played for the season (or is it the opposite and that’s percentage of snaps missed for the season). Or neither? Is that percentage related to all of our DB’s (starters and backups)??

    Is that percentage related to snaps played or missed? If not what does that percentage entail. And what does AGL stand for…

  5. passthebuc Says:

    I took a masters course in college called how to lie with statistics. It kept me ahead of the game for 60 years.

  6. J Says:

    “The frick is AGL?” LMAO!!! I had no idea what AGL meant either, but the response had me rolling!

  7. stpetebucsfan Says:


    Love the metaphors you obviously enjoy creating.

    “just one step above four piles of fresh feces.”

    Yes our entire defense played like a bunch of “deavers”.

    Deaver=10 lbs of manure in a 1 lb bag.

  8. Duthsty Rhothdes Says:

    When will vh3 be released or why not try & trade him for duke johnson or leonard williams

  9. Joe Says:

    Is that percentage related to snaps played or missed? If not what does that percentage entail. And what does AGL stand for…

    Asking the wrong person.

    The real issue is the injuries. Didn’t hit Joe that it was that bad.

  10. Concerned Oneyed buc Says:

    Vh3 is not worth more than a 7th rounder and that’s pushing it. Why Licht head exercised his 5th year option is beyond me.

  11. Joe Says:

    When will vh3 be released or why not try & trade him for duke johnson or leonard williams

    Not sure about VHIII but he hasn’t done a good job of winning over the new staff. Of course, he has three months to change that.

    Unlikely they trade for Leonard Williams. The Bucs don’t have $14 million laying around now. Coaching staff from what Joe hears is content with the running backs. Is that blind optimism or hubris, time will tell.

  12. JGhoti86 Says:

    @ Joe

    No worries! Was just curious. Didn’t realize it was that bad either. Probably none of them (VH3, 15 games) missed the entire year, like you stated, it was just a constant rash of injuries regarding that position specifically.

    Good reporting though. Definitely wasn’t aware it was that bad.

  13. JGhoti86 Says:

    Probably because ** none of them

  14. Concerned Oneyed buc Says:

    Joe it’s very blind optimism and a Jason Licht cap strapped payroll.

  15. Joe Says:

    Good reporting though. Definitely wasn’t aware it was that bad.

    Give credit to Football Outsiders. They dug it up. Didn’t realize it was that bad. More you think about it, no wonder they were so bad. Backups and rookies to guys not that good (though when motivated, Grimes was good) aren’t going to win too many games for you.

  16. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    I actually think it is a bit of both……not happy with depth…..not particularly happy with starters….we just got much faster and perhaps more aggressive.

    Let’s let this play out a bit before pressing the panic button.

    And, Joe….relax, enjoy your Memorial Day Weekend….you seem to be quite engaged today.

    I’ve always thought you were quite positive… know, with the “America’s QB” ……I mean, you can’t get more positive than that….borders on delusion…..
    And, don’t run me for the delusion reference…..delusion is a necessary component to being a longtime Bucs fan.

  17. JGhoti86 Says:

    Hat tip Football Outsiders. And no kidding! Cant really blame them for drafting DB heavy this draft…and that already made some sense before I even knew of this info and to what extent the injuries played.

    At this point, I’m just hoping for one of these 5 DB’s we drafted the last two years, in rounds 2 and 3, to pan out and become at least a quality starter (not to mention a 1st rounder w/ VH3 and a 2nd w/ Justin Evans). We need it to happen and everyone knows it.

  18. Bird Says:

    I hope Justin Evans camel toe gets healthy

  19. Bucnjim Says:

    Probably not a popular opinion but I feel the Bucs will be playing way more nickel and dime packages this season. Three down lineman allows teams to be way more creative in their blitzes but even more so with their coverage. With so many passing teams the 3-3-5 could be way more of a standard defense instead of strictly a third down D. Also trending with a lot of college teams is the 3-2-6. Haven’t read a lot about it but seems similar to basketball where they look to take away passing lanes.

  20. GrayBalls Says:

    The way I read AGL is sort of like the WAR stat in baseball. Instead it simply shows the total accumulated games lost from those starters. 46.4= 46 games + 24 minutes in play clock time(due to injury/injury related issue). Again, just how I read it

  21. Alanbucsfan Says:

    Injuries were a factor, but soft scheme was main problem-
    Just watch the Bengals overtime again and try not to get ill

  22. ManzielMadness Says:

    Lol was Conte actually injured? I figured Vance McDonald ended his career.

  23. First Down Tampa Bay Says:

    Rumor has it that Conte is still stuck underneath the turf of Raymond James Stadium because of Vance McDonald.

  24. SenileSenior Says:

    J Says:
    May 25th, 2019 at 2:28 pm

    “The frick is AGL?” LMAO!!! I had no idea what AGL meant either, but the response had me rolling!

    Me too! LMAO! I immediately went to The Free Dictionary. It did not appear on the list of 40+.
    Watching and learning what is really going on among our LBs and DBs in Bowles defense will be a real challenge for me. It will be new and exciting for me. I will read who are the official starters and who are the backups when the season begins.

    My re-education continues for the rest of this summer. I am enjoying it so far.
    Go Bucs!!!

  25. Rod Munch Says:

    Chris Conte + Ryan Smith is literally the worst defensive back duo in NFL history. That is not hyperbole.

  26. Bucsfanman Says:

    And THIS, Buc fans, is ‘exhibit A’ of why the Bucs drafted so many DBs in this year’s draft.

  27. BucsBall80 Says:

    ADR. Adjusted Depression Rate. I learned along time ago pen jockeys can twist and manipulate negitive voodoo words to prove a point. And the depression can be charted on a graph.

  28. Anonymous Says:

    Watch the great defensive teams of the 97’ -03’ seasons and what they did best was pretty simple, they TACKLED!!! New staff has to teach them how to tackle and the D is instantly better.💪

  29. Bucbob511 Says:

    No one ever mentions the simple fact that our defense can’t friggin’ tackle, until they can do that consistently they are gonna suck