High-Tech Tandem Rankings

February 26th, 2019

The NFL’s incredible NextGen technology that extracts precise official data from the tracking of footballs and uniforms has weighed in on Mike Evans and America’s Quarterback, Jameis Winston.

Impressive stuff.

The explanation is stat-nerd heaven.

This past year, Next Gen Stats revealed a new metric called completion probability. Instead of anecdotally wondering how difficult a throw and catch was on the field, we now have data to prove it.

Factoring in the distance the ball traveled, receiver separation, pressure on the passer, plus the quarterbacks’ speed (i.e. how fast the QB is moving at release in MPH) and time to throw — there is a lens to view how likely a pass is to be completed. So, which quarterback-receiver connections stood out last year? Let’s turn to Next Gen’s completion probability metrics to find out the league’s most and least QB-WR tandems of 2018:

Joe will translate. The computers determine how likely specific throws/catches are to be completed, and then that’s compared to the actual overall completion between the quarterback and receiver.

Here were the top-6 NFL tandems of 2018:

        1. 1. Russell Wilson to Tyler Lockett
        1. 2.  Drew Brees to Michael Thomas
        1. 3.  Philip Rivers to Mike Williams
        1. 4. Deshaun Watson to DeAndre Hopkins
        1. 5. Kirk Cousins to Adam Thielen
    1.                     6. Jameis to Evans. 

No surprise to see Jameis here. Jameis only has chemistry issues with one receiver, a malcontent.

Jameis’ negative, of course, is turnovers. Hopefully, this is the year those reduce to an acceptable level.

14 Responses to “High-Tech Tandem Rankings”

  1. Bucnjim Says:

    Really like Evans he’s one tough talented player. With the other WR/TE talent on this team they should be able to connect even more. Hopefully in the red zone!

  2. Ndog Says:

    So I guess according to that one bozo that comments on every Jameis article, these stats must have only been taken on throws to stationary targets. SMH at the flipping bozo.

  3. DB55 Says:

    Well that’s great.

    On another note gmc is really terrible watching him on nfln rn and that dude can’t defend a gap to save his life. He might not be worth 1m per year. 🗑

  4. DB55 Says:

    So is Dotson. Absolutely awful

  5. stpetebucsfan Says:

    JW had a great connection with not only ME but also Hump, Brate, Godwin and OJ…he only had difficulty with one receiver.
    If you connect regularly with five targets and miss only one…the one should probably be sent packing…bye bye DJAX and your 10 million liability.

    However some of the JW apologists get carried away. The kid has talent but lacked consistency until the final half dozen games of last season. Let’s hope that carries over to 2019. So all the whining about our lack of running game…our OL is overblown IMHO. They are certainly areas that need improvement but they weren’t the difference.

    We simply need to remedy two areas…JW’s turnovers/decision making…and a horrid defense…and lets not forget some incredible choking in our kicking game at the wrong time.

    Fix JW…he appeared fixed at the end of last season…fix the defense the largest challenge…and find a kicker who doesn’t choke. Improving the OL and getting a good RB to go with Payton will obviously help…but it’s those first three that are essential.

  6. El_Buc941 Says:

    Joe can we get a poll on who we think we should franchise tax out of Kwon, Humphries,or Smith?

  7. Aaron Says:

    Ya and most the other teams have run games we dont!

  8. StoutGospel Says:


    And not on frequency.

    Or even if so, but not really, probably not….

    Anythimg that means anything.

    A “filler” article, again, for @Joe…to hop a plane (earlier) to Indy to…”bring us” 1/5th of what we would provide, over the next 5 days. Bunch of….almost. Roll to PFT to get it.

    Go Bucs!

  9. Jean Lafitte Says:

    Here’s something to ponder:

    Will the absence of DJax impact the Winston to Evans connection this season?

  10. Mort Says:


    Everyone else: Don’t nobody understand the words coming out of your mouth.

  11. BetterBucFan Says:

    We all know Jameis is good at throwing the ball to Mike Evans. But what I wonder, as a stats geek, how many of his interceptions come from targeting Evans vs. other Bucs receivers?

    Seems like some stat the people over at PFF or Football Outsiders would have, and give some ridiculously long name to.

  12. D1QB Says:

    Jameis only had chemistry issues with one malcontent receiver.

    The only context “chemistry” has been used is with completing, long down the field passes. Chemistry = Completion %. ( down the field receptions only)

    Jameis had no issues with anyone but djax.
    Ok, let’s say that’s 100% co..rrect.

    Winston finished dead last in completion % on deep throws.
    10 passes of the 34 attps where measured as accurate. 9 were caught. So Winston isn’t a victim of dropped balls by his receivers.

    So it’s simple, either Winston has chemistry issues with all receivers not named Evans. Or…. Chemistry is just soo much smoke being blown up our butts. And the actual problem lays elsewhere.

  13. Bob in Valrico Says:

    As much as a malcontent as Jackson is, His presence on the field helped Evans get more single coverage than previous years. IMO its the reason they signed DJax . We will need another deep threat to open things up again. In 2018 Evans hauled in 32 of 40 of Jameis’s passes over 20 yards. That chemistry has been a work in progress that is at the level it should be. I credit part of the improvement
    on better ball placement,Jameis and better touch on his passes to Evans.

  14. Z31 BUCS Says:

    StoutGospel says
    “Or even if so, but not really, probably not….

    Anythimg that means anything.

    A “filler” article, again, for @Joe…to hop a plane (earlier) to Indy to…”bring us” 1/5th of what we would provide, over the next 5 days. Bunch of….almost. Roll to PFT to get it.”


    What the HELL is this?
    Is it supposed to be in English?