Behind The Nonsense

January 21st, 2019

Thomas Bassinger performed a deep dive into the great Buccaneers con job delivered by Dirk Koetter in late 2017 and through the first half of 2018.

Joe railed about it over and over at the time, and the Tampa Bay Times numberscruncher/reporter invested the time recently to expose it further.

After the Bucs’ 5-11 stinkfest of 2017 (not this season’s) Koetter said repeatedly that the Bucs played so many one-score games and lost so many of those compared to the Falcons and other teams, that those results should let everyone know Tampa Bay was close to turning around its fortunes.

It was flawed logic then and it always will be. Bad teams lose a high percentage of close games because they have issues, not because they’re on the cusp of greatness. At the time, Joe noted the 2017 Bears were 2-6 in one-score games and fired their head coach, despite a No. 10-ranked defense and signs of life on offense. The Bucs were 3-7 in close games and were somehow gaining confidence from it.

This season? Tampa Bay was 4-7 in one-score games. (Watch out for the Giants next season; they were 4-8!)

Bassinger further illustrated the absurdity of it all.

Guess which team has had the best win percentage in one-score games over the past three seasons.

The Patriots?

Nope. They rank third.

The Steelers?

Nope. They rank fourth.

The Eagles?

How about the Dolphins?


That’s right. Miami — Miami! — has won 20 of their past 26.

And Dolphins coach Adam Gase? He was fired the day after the end of the regular season.

Obviously, good team usually win a good percentage of close games or hammer their opponents consistently. But losing close games doesn’t make you close to good. It never will.

New head coach Bucco Bruce Arians’ won two-thirds of his one-score games in Arizona, Bassinger noted. That’s meaningless but comforting nonetheless.

22 Responses to “Behind The Nonsense”

  1. William Walls Says:

    Winners win.

  2. Bucs fan #7423 Says:

    We’re gonna really enjoy watching Bucs not do something embarrassing when the game is on the line

  3. Coburn Says:

    Good teams find ways to win (often just enough.. no bonus points for nore) , bad teams fine ways to lose (even if just barely).

  4. Tbbucs3 Says:

    The Patriots are always in close games, it’s the NFL…..but Belichick And Brady always find a way to win, that’s what good teams do….make adjustments and are competitive in close games.

  5. AlteredEgo Says:

    Oh…the Ole’ Stat clingers vs those standing in the winners circle

  6. Tbbucs3 Says:

    The Bucs the last few years have just played sloppy sloppy football games.

  7. AlteredEgo Says:

    And more nonsense….those daring to compare Hump to Edelman …

  8. AlteredEgo Says:

    I know you are not supposed to post vid links but perhaps Joe/s can find a way…priceless and so cool…

  9. Bucs fan #7423 Says:

    Only thing Edelman and hump have in common is that their white receivers

  10. stpetebucsfan Says:

    Close to 50% of all NFL games are decided by 7 points or less.

    The two biggest margins of course are 3 points and 7 points.
    15% are decided by three points.

    With three points being 15% of all games do we suppose we should do our very best to get a great kicker. I was not upset that Licht spend that 2nd rounder on a kicker…they are incredibly important…anybody want to do the research on how many games the Bucs lost because of horrid kicking?

    The problem with Aguayo wasn’t the 2nd round pick it was the person it was spent on…how did Licht mess up so badly. While kickers are very important you have to draft the RIGHT one.

    Watching LA yesterday almost made me sick and I was rooting for the Rams. But watching that guy make a 47 yarder with ease and then kicking the game winner in OT from 67 freaking yards…ball had enough distance to go through from close to 80 brought all the memories of when we played well in the 4th quarter and moved into easy FG range only to CHOKE the kick.

    And we haven’t even discussed extra points.

    I’m not advocating we spend a high draft pick on a kicker…although I would give a lot for that Rams kicker. We DO need to put forth maximum energy…$$$…whatever it takes to get a kicker who is money from 50 in.

  11. “That guy” Says:

    Wow joe…. just wow, thanks for wasting my time. I am currently dumber then I was before I read that article.

  12. AlteredEgo Says:

    “I’m not advocating we spend a high draft pick on a kicker…although I would give a lot for that Rams kicker. We DO need to put forth maximum energy…$$$…whatever it takes to get a kicker who is money from 50 in.”

    that was the thinking in drafting Aguayo…all those 3 points

  13. Conte Piscatelli Says:

    Good teams put games away when they have a lead. Good teams may occasionally win a close game because they fell behind and really to win. Bad teams talk about the games they almost won, because it distracts from the handful of curb stompings that took place as well. Bad teams blow big leads, or quit after one bad play a couple minutes into a game.

  14. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    We saw yesterday what a really good kicker can mean…….For the Rams…..48 to tie the game…..57 to win in OT.
    How many teams would risk losing that field position in OT and trust their kicker with a 57 yarder?

    As far as 1 score games……I think there is not a simple answer…..sometimes it’s coaching sometimes it’s kicking….sometimes defense…..sometimes the QB…..sometimes it’s a bad official….sometimes it’s simply luck.

  15. Tom G Says:

    Point taken about winners win and losers lose. That said, if just going on the ‘close game’ w/l stats.. In the last two years our Kickers were responsible for at least 4, maybe 5 losses. ..just sayin.

  16. ToesOnTheLine!!! Says:

    I supported Koetter last year, but it was the right call booting him once it became apparent the Bucs had an upgrade on the hook (BA). Just watching the Pats-Chiefs game yesterday was a display of good coaching. Example…odd as it sounds I’m pretty sure both Belichick and Reid allowed the other teams offenses to score on a couple late 4th quarter drives knowing that their respective offenses could make the necessary score, but only if they had enough time left on the clock. Sounds stupid, but it’s actually quite smart situational football awareness vs. wasting time on the clock trying to stop a good offense when your D either sucks or is gassed. You know Dirk would have tried to stop a top tier offense, burning all timeouts in the process, only to watch the clock run down to 30 seconds as the other team scored on 4th and goal. Arians has proven he has good game flow situational awareness, Koetter…not so much.

  17. Lord Cornelius Says:

    Multiple loser coaches have cited this stat.

    Meanwhile no one would speak to the absolute blow outs that occur every year where the team is out of the game by 1/2 time or midway through the 3rd quarter. That’s been like a quarter of each season which is unacceptable.

    1-2 bad losses total a year is one thing – especially if early in the year. Even the Pats have those stumbles. But not getting blown the f*ck out one in four games on average would be nice. We’re giving away 4 games a year basically and having to win 90% of our close games to make the playoffs.

    We should be blowing out 2-4 teams a year. Having maybe 1-2 bad losses. And the rest should be relatively close games with us winning the majority. If we were truly a competitive team

  18. Duthsty Rhothdes Says:

    Stats like this are for losers. Bottom line is the bucs do not have the talent or pro mentality to complete games and finish them from a dunderbox gm who has no clue regarding what an nfl kicker is to the mental midgets that are all over this squad. The LVDs and GMCs with the we werent prepared or whatever. Tom BRady said it the best when he said he is “I am the baddest MF on the Planet” we dont even have the baddest dudes in hillsborough on our team

  19. BucEmUp Says:

    They were score games because the opposonh team lated down in the fourth quarter knowing they coukdnt lose. Its veen countless times they got blown out in the first half and magically got back into it because the other team was laughing at the bucs on the sidelines. Same reason JPP and MIKE EVANS dont get voted to the pro bowl….no respect.

  20. westernbuc Says:

    Koetter is a good man and it’s chicken sh- for Joe to compare him to a con artist.

    There’s no evidence he didn’t try to win and by all accounts he was well respected.

    I’m fine with joke descriptions, but they have to be accurate and fitting, not cheap and cruel. I’m disgusted by you guys right now

  21. Jean Lafitte Says:

    Those one score games are a result of playing up to the level of competition or down to the level but not good enough to win the game.

  22. lambchop Says:

    “That guy” Says:
    January 21st, 2019 at 9:40 am

    Wow joe…. just wow, thanks for wasting my time. I am currently dumber then I was before I read that article.

    The irony.

    It’s dumber THAN, not then, Einstein.