Jameis No. 5
June 7th, 2018
Stats don’t lie.
So, you’ve likely heard from the haters that America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, is inaccurate, eh?
Well, if one is to believe that tripe, Football Outsiders is here to educate you.
Specifically, it is the research of Scott Kacsmar.
In the NHL, there is a grading system for players called “plus-minus.” When a player happens to be on the ice when a goal is scored, they get a point. When a player is on the ice when their team gives up a goal, they are subtracted a point. If a player has a positive grade, it means more likely than not, good things happen while he is on the ice.
Well, Kacsmar decided to invent a similar stat for quarterbacks, a plus-minus grading system. Typing for Football Outsiders, Kacsmar takes the average completion percentage of the NFL, then looks to see how better or worse a quarterback’s completion percentage is to the league average that season.
“[blockquote]Passing plus-minus estimates how many passes a quarterback completed above or below what an average quarterback would have completed, given the location of those passes. It does not consider passes listed as “Thrown Away,” “Tipped at Line,” or “Quarterback Hit in Motion.” Player performance is compared to a historical baseline of how often a pass is completed based on the pass distance, the distance required for a first down, and whether the ball was thrown to the left, middle, or right side of the field. Note that plus-minus is not scaled to a player’s total attempts.”[/blockquote]
Last year, Jameis’ plus-minus was the fifth-best in the NFL.
Only three quarterbacks in the top ten of plus-minus didn’t make the playoffs. That would be, in order, Jameis, Stewart McClown and Russell Wilson.
So if Jameis is really as inaccurate as the haters claim, it doesn’t show in the numbers.
June 7th, 2018 at 5:43 am
Only his long stuff to Desean stick out. Short and intermediate he’s usually right on point except occasionally in the first quarter. That goes back to his college days. He gets too amped for games and sails some pass in the first. I wish he’d either calm his a$$ down or lower his aiming point then. Otherwise he’s a pretty accurate qb.
June 7th, 2018 at 5:47 am
Joe, the haters already have their opinion. They won’t let you confuse them with facts. We will read a lot of posts stating, in short, this is “fake news”.
I am sure they will complain that he kneeled the final snap before winning a Super Bowl 3 yards behind the LOS while 1 yard would have been enough.
Go Jameis, go Bucs!
June 7th, 2018 at 6:41 am
Go Jameis
June 7th, 2018 at 7:04 am
Stat Carriers vs Stick Carriers
June 7th, 2018 at 7:07 am
I’m going to need a shrink with all these Jameis articles!
The WHOLE team needs to be better. 5-11 says so. PERIOD! End of story!
June 7th, 2018 at 7:10 am
Joe Joe Joe
The only thing I hear and see is on THE LONG BALL he is not accurate !
So haters are correct till numbers show different. Under 30 JW is fine.
Brad Johnson was lost accurate but all he did was dump to the back 15-20 times a game.
June 7th, 2018 at 7:27 am
German Buc you are correct!
June 7th, 2018 at 7:32 am
I’m for more dinks & dumps…..his accuracy is very good within 25 yards and that’s enough to win….
I’d like to see fewer difficult passes on 3rd & 5, for example…..we always seem to choose the 20 yard pass instead of the 6.
June 7th, 2018 at 7:37 am
Winston is clearly the best QB in the NFL hence why the Bucs are always winning games. We all know and have seen the great QBs like Brady and Montana carry their team and win games year after year just like Winston.
June 7th, 2018 at 8:01 am
You can create ANY set of “stats” to prove or disprove your love or hate for a quarterback. But there’s only one stat that matters.
June 7th, 2018 at 8:14 am
So, would the Bucs be the same team with McCown or better since, they probably would have used that first overall pick on the best pass rusher instead of Jameis?
Joes, you guys have to lay off of the “McClown” insults as he won more games last year was less talent! Per your own article, they are similar in accuracy. I would contend that they’re similar in other ways too… five acceptable plays; one WTF? McCown didn’t cost the #1 pick either. Please, don’t call him a backup. If they switched jerseys, (aside from the skin color) we probably wouldn’t notice a difference.
June 7th, 2018 at 8:17 am
…WITH less talent!
June 7th, 2018 at 8:19 am
donuts — This gave me a good laugh not going to lie… None of these stats or debates will matter this season. IF we can’t find a way to win games this season Winston heads into a contract year with a new Head Coach and likely front office. A new head coach and front office that will have NO ties to Winston or his success/failure. We all have different stances on Winston but I don’t see a new management group dropping a 100 million on him IF he continues as is.
June 7th, 2018 at 8:40 am
Technically the data is useless in regards to Winston because of the following:
A) Its only 3 yrs worth of data…..If you discarded the highest and lowest rating, he would only be left with one piece of data which is his second yr. The range of the data is so vastly different you couldn’t make a worthwhile decision from it. Year 1….Winston was rated -14.5….Year 2….+3.5…..Year 3….+18.5.
In simple stats….your Mean is 2.5….yet standard deviation is 13.5
B) A) He was injured last year on his throwing shoulder……yet somehow statistically his numbers jumped from +3.2 to +18.7. Did his style of play change to protect the injury? Did that inflate his accuracy stats by attempting throws/play calls that put less stress on the shoulder?
The glaring trait that stands out with Winston is he’s inconsistent…..You simply dont know what you’re getting yet with him because he’s kind of all over the place in so many different ways.
June 7th, 2018 at 8:43 am
Donuts,
Love the sarcasm but Walsh and belichek will go down as 2 of the greatest coaches ever. They know how to put their players in positions to succeed. Can’t discount coaching but you also named 2 of the greatest QBs of all time so verdict is still out on 24 yo jameis. Here’s going to be a great one though.
June 7th, 2018 at 8:44 am
He’s
June 7th, 2018 at 8:55 am
Winston is #1 in my book….and that’s the only book that matters…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!….GO BUCS!!!!
June 7th, 2018 at 9:10 am
Two best QB’s in Bucs history:
Steve Young and Jameis Winston
HOWEVER the
Bucs were smart to trade Steve. I know he won multiple MVP’s, several Super Bowl Rings and is in the College and Pro football hall of fame, but he was 3-16 with the Bucs and did absolutely nothing to improve the Bucs running game and defense.
Jamies is doing the same thing Steve did. Jamies has not helped the Bucs improve the worst defense in the NFL nor has he kept Doug Martin from doing drugs or running for more than 3 yards per carry and lastly Jamies did nothing to improve the accuracy of the Bucs once great kickers Roberto Aguayo or Nick Folk.
The Bucs should know better it’s time to trade Jameis for the same compensation the Bucs received for Steve Young. It worked before it’s time to do it again.
June 7th, 2018 at 9:17 am
We have the worst starting receivers with route running and separation skills.
“So that the Buc Sheep can finally be taught and to reason correctly, I suggest to sticky Kobe Faker daily posts at the top of the page”
Kobe Faker
June 7th, 2018 at 9:27 am
Based on the title, I thought this was an article about NFC South QB rankings.
I kid, I kid. But seriously, any time I see something Bucs related with “No. 5” involved, I go fetal with Josh Freeman horrors.
June 7th, 2018 at 9:40 am
This “Winston sucks and is inaccurate” stuff gets old.
Take away half of his bonehead throw-into-tight-coverage and fumbles, and the guy is outstanding. Not HoF stuff, but top-tier outstanding.
June 7th, 2018 at 10:07 am
Do these stats factor in the number of passes that a receiver has to make a miraculous catch to make it a completion? Balls thrown behind or too low or too high? Thats why we have no yac to speak of..
I don’t need stats to tell me he’s not accurate, I got eyeballs…has he ever thrown a receiver open? Not much.
Stat Carriers indeed….
June 7th, 2018 at 10:17 am
And Joe
There’s only one stat that matters
June 7th, 2018 at 10:22 am
Realbucfan941 Says:
“He gets too amped for games and sails some pass in the first. I wish he’d either calm his a$$ down or lower his aiming point then. Otherwise he’s a pretty accurate qb.”
I don’t have any proof of this, but I have a theory that Jameis has been told that it is better to overthrow than underthrow, because it results in fewer interceptions.
Having WRs who can leap for the ball (outside of DJaz) helps…but if this is the case, it must be hard to adjust to DJax.
June 7th, 2018 at 10:26 am
Bucs have been a dumb franchise for most of its existence and apparently the stupidity trickles into the fanbase through osmosis.
The Bucs are very lucky to have Jameis Winston as their QB. If the Bucs can give him an average defense and an average running game I am confident he can do major damage in the playoffs.
June 7th, 2018 at 10:27 am
jmarkbuc, I see your point, even if it is biased. I can only say that most quarterbacks do the same sort of things.
I recently rewatched several of the games from last year…Jameis was playing injured and he was still highly accurate.
Another thing to consider…he never had a problem connecting with Mike Evans when going deep. For there to be this much of an issue, the problem has to be with the WR…DJax.
DJax does not make catching the ball his primary concern…he makes avoiding getting hit his primary concern. I cannot wait for him to be gone, because Jameis and Evans were doing fine before he was here…and Godwin smells blood. He knows he can take the job from DJax this year, so be ready to see his numbers sky rocket.
June 7th, 2018 at 10:38 am
Bonzai
I don’t disagree with you about Djax..if the ball doesn’t drop into his hands perfectly he won’t make an effort..that being said, the other QB’s he’s played with must have been really good at doing just that..kinda proves my point.
Not sure what you mean by biased..I would love for JW to do well, just don’t see it. I’m a Buc fan, no one player comes before the team. Any body with eyes can see his game is off. My greatest hope is that we actually do get an adequate run game, and defense then there will be no more excuses for Jameis lovers everywhere
June 7th, 2018 at 11:25 am
For someone who always claims that stats are for losers, Joe sure is intrigued by stats when it supports his argument. So now we can all rest easy cause Joe found a made of stat that makes Jameis our hero. Oh wait, does that make me a hater? smh
June 7th, 2018 at 11:26 am
*correction* made up stat
June 7th, 2018 at 11:45 am
The only thing holding Winston back from becoming an elite QB is the fumbles. Averaging 1 pick per game as a young 20 something QB is right inline and an improvement there is expected. If the OL and running game jell to where it becomes an actual threat Winston will be the biggest beneficiary. 9 out of the top 10 rushing teams made the playoffs in 2017. Only Dallas did not. 7 out of the top 10 rushing TD teams made the playoffs in 2017. Only Dallas, San Fran and Baltimore did not. Run the ball better and Winston and the Bucs will benefit.
Go Bucs!
June 7th, 2018 at 11:57 am
The top 6 teams in last years playoffs were the top 6 teams in points per game.
You would need one of the top scoring defenses if you plan on making the playoffs with scoring 20.9 points per game.
June 7th, 2018 at 12:06 pm
A lot of ignorance is reading it’s tupical head in the comments above.
Anyone who watched Jameis after came back healed from the injury last season saw the truth:
A top ten NFL QB who is only held back from being higher because of turnovers (mainly fumbles).
And he is just now 24 years old.
Let the haters stew in their misery,
I could t be more excited.
Combine that with the most beautiful thing this offseason and the wins will come.,,
KEEP FIXING THE TRENCHES AND FUX THE BUCS!!
June 7th, 2018 at 12:10 pm
Same ppl calls stats are irrelevant in JW case but use stats to defend GMC.
June 7th, 2018 at 12:46 pm
#FreeTheAmishRifle
June 7th, 2018 at 2:58 pm
Well said TONY LA
June 7th, 2018 at 6:09 pm
QBs don’t win championships. Defenses do.