A Trade Down Option
January 24th, 2018
Offers his top prospects.
This angers some fans, but Joe really doesn’t give a s(p)it about mock drafts until Mike Mayock releases his the week of the draft.
What Joe does give a s(p)it about are player rankings. Joe wants good players and pays attention to that, not what some yahoo on a podcast based in Hutchinson, Kan., thinks a team will draft.
Joe is a big believer in Daniel Jeremiah’s opinion. Schooled in the art of scouting by Ozzie Newsome (who learned at the feet of Bill Belicheat), Jeremiah knows what NFL folks look for. Joe also knows Jeremiah is tight with many NFL suits who also value his work. So indirectly, what Jeremiah puts out is likely what scouts/general managers are thinking as well.
Jeremiah has a fresh prospect list and, yes, Saquon Barkley is atop his list. If it gives Bucs fans a sense of calm, Jeremiah has Bradley Chubb as the No. 4 prospect.
Now Jeremiah has UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen at No. 7. Yeah, Joe understands the draft rarely goes by prospects, but by needs, and about a third of the NFL teams need a quarterback.
But just for the fun of it, if Rosen was sitting there at No. 7, Joe suspects Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht would get a nice offer from a team or two in order to trade down. With an extra pick, perhaps Licht could land both Harold Landry and Marcus Davenport?
It’s not like the Bucs couldn’t use two edge rushers, because they have none as it currently stands. And drafting two high gives the team better odds that one (or both) develop into a weapon.
January 24th, 2018 at 4:12 pm
Trade down is so hard to predict it takes two for it to happen. Plus the two teams behind us have a QB for the future. Why would a team trade up to #7 to get one when you can trade to #9?
Reality is the Bucs may reach for need with an edge rusher. Personally in the 1st round draft the best player on your board. If it’s a DB, OL, RB or hopefully an edge guy. Draft talent you want to reach for need then take DE in the ,3rd 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds and hopefully one develops.
This team has drafted for need in the past and ended up missing on talent. Gaines Adams instead of Adrian Peterson comes to mind.
January 24th, 2018 at 4:14 pm
Chubb, Nelson or Davenport looks to be in play for the Bucs, if they stay in the top 10, and I would be good with any of those players.
January 24th, 2018 at 4:17 pm
Being a Bucs fan since I was a kid, talking about the draft in November, December and January is pretty much an annual ritual.
January 24th, 2018 at 4:18 pm
Davenport got dominated in drills yesterday.
January 24th, 2018 at 4:24 pm
Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Jackson, Mayfield
I have been posting this for weeks……we should have an opportunity to pick one of these 4 players.
Chubb, Barkley, Nelson, Minkah
Why? Because if none of these are there at 7 then there would be two of the above QBs on the board at 7. There are several teams below us that need a QB and trading up to 7 is a lot different than trading up to 3, for example.
We are in a good position to get a solid pick or trade down.
January 24th, 2018 at 4:25 pm
Pardon me, three of the above QBs would still be there.
January 24th, 2018 at 4:31 pm
@HolyBuc
The reason why a team would come up to 7 is because they don’t want another team to…..simple as that….if a team tries to wait to 9…..what happens if another team trades up to 7,8 or 9 in front of them?
The concern would be teams trading up to 3, 4, 5 or 6….thus leaving us without a trade down partner….but if that is the case, they will come up for a QB and that leaves one of the 4 top prospects still on the board.
January 24th, 2018 at 4:31 pm
Chubb is our guy if he somehow makes it to #7. Seems unlikely but ya never know.
Aside from landing Chubb – Trading down would be the best case scenario as we have more needs than high picks.
The idea of getting Nelson is intriguing though. The need is there for sure. Perhaps OL is not as big a need as DE – but I would content that bad guard play in 2017 was the main reason the Bucs offense was not what we all had hoped it would be heading into the season.
If Nelson is as good as a bunch of “experts” seem to think – he could go a long way towards helping our offense “click” in 2018 and beyond for many years.
January 24th, 2018 at 4:33 pm
bucs get davenport and landry…..I hear ya joe….one can dream!!!!….GO BUCS!!!
January 24th, 2018 at 4:38 pm
Chubb
Barkley
Nelson
GTFO
That should be the top of our draft board.
I would love to see a trade back and use the extra picks to trade back up into the first again. Imagine Vea and Key/Davenport/Landy….or Derwin James
January 24th, 2018 at 4:46 pm
Pickgrin Says:
January 24th, 2018 at 4:31 pm
Chubb is our guy if he somehow makes it to #7.
I hope your right……
chubb in the first
guice or Michel in the second
taven bryan in the third
GO BUCS!!!!
January 24th, 2018 at 5:12 pm
LOL
Next time Joe talks to Jason Licht, he will offer up this option to gauge interest.
ROTFLMAO!!!!
January 24th, 2018 at 5:15 pm
I wonder if Daniel.J would be a good GM.
January 24th, 2018 at 5:21 pm
Cleveland Browns new GM John Dorsey has been in the NFL for 33 years. As a player, Scout, Director Of Player Personnel, GM. It’s hard to imagine a man of his knowledge, experience passing on Bradley Chubb twice. They spent the top pick on Myles Garrett last season. Now they need to add another DE for Garrett to reach his full potential. When you have 4 draft picks in the Top-35 picks and $111 Million in cap space. You have flexibility , you have options. Cleveland is the key to this draft.
January 24th, 2018 at 5:22 pm
Joe, why aren’t you in Mobile covering the Senior Bowl?
Just not worth the money/time on Joe’s end. Prefer to invest the time in the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl week.–Joe
January 24th, 2018 at 5:27 pm
I respect guys like Mayock and Daniel Jeremiah but the FACT is that they are offering opinions not facts.
This is a game we play every year because there is no football right now. The Combine…draft…and FA is the only thing left for football fans.
But seriously…just because Jeremiah has Rosen slotted at 7 doesn’t mean that’s the best pick or that it will happen. Rosen COULD be the 7th best player…then again he might end up as a bust….50-50!!!
He has Nelson at #2…Barkley #1…I think they are the only truly generational talents in this draft. Minkah and Chubb are not far behind and would make great picks as well.
I’d like to get Nelson or trade down.
Walter Football changes their mock regularly. They moved us off of Key at #7 and now believe we take Nelson in that spot. Previously they had Nelson lasting until 9.
January 24th, 2018 at 5:30 pm
Lakeland…
There is one way he could pass on Chubb twice…..
First pick….QB of his choice or Barkley… Fourth pick….a trade with someone else who wants the QB of their choice.
Our problem for Chubb will be the Colts @ 3….but they may have a trade offer also.
The Browns can get the RB an QB…..that is very hard to pass up for a DE.
January 24th, 2018 at 5:38 pm
Tampabaybucfan
Free Agency start March 14
The draft starts April 26
Some of these QB needed clubs will sign QBs in Free Agency
John Dorsey and John Elway are two GM that may go that route
January 24th, 2018 at 5:46 pm
It makes more sense for John Dorsey to sign Kirk Cousins than spend a top pick on a QB. They just signed Todd Haley as OC, they have 3 young QBs on their roster 25 and under. Sign a proven veteran like Cousins, they have the money.They have 4 picks in the Top-35, just get the BPA.
January 24th, 2018 at 6:01 pm
Minkah Fitzpatrick is a bad man
January 24th, 2018 at 6:06 pm
We won’t have a clear picture of the draft until late March, after Free Agency and the Combine. Right now it’s just the early stages of a long process.
January 24th, 2018 at 6:15 pm
Maybe anther TE. Will fall to us at 7 when we have Brate already that would be awesome!
January 24th, 2018 at 6:24 pm
If Chubb, Barkley and Fitzpatrick are off the board, look for the Bucs to take Nelson (assuming he’s there). Licht has always been “safe” with his first round picks. Evans was almost universally considered the 7th best player in a draft that had 6 elite prospects, Winston was going to go 1st or 2nd overall, VHIII (despite how his career has turned out) was considered by many (not all) the best pure corner in that draft (Ramsey being a S/CB hybrid) and Howard was a Top 5 talent that fell due to his position. None of these were risks
January 24th, 2018 at 6:39 pm
The last position the Bucs need is QB. If Ray Lewis can be at a murder scene and still make the HOF, certainly a crotch grab even if proven true seems insignificant. Then again, millennials run our society.
January 24th, 2018 at 6:39 pm
would love to see Licht trade down and get Landry n Davenport both!
Bucs need to retool their coaching/training staff in regards to CB and DE. We need to get 2 good DE that have right size and right motor and make them into weapons.
January 24th, 2018 at 6:45 pm
@Buc. Scotty
LOL!
first round wide reciever
second round tight end
third round kicker
fourth back up kicker
fifth round back up tight end
sixth backup linebacker
were good then and 2018 season ready
January 24th, 2018 at 6:46 pm
AJ McCarron to the Browns? He may become a UFA and sign with Cleveland
Will Case Keenum follow Pat Shumur to the Giants?
Will Kirk Cousins sign with the Denver Broncos?
January 24th, 2018 at 7:01 pm
@JamesWalker
If I understand your post correctly and your slam at millenials I take it you’re fine with crotch grabbing? Your daughter or wife? Guess we know who you voted for.LOL
January 24th, 2018 at 7:02 pm
If one of the 3 qbs are somehow still there at 7, highly unlikely, Licht would be a fool to not trade. Even if its only a 2nd or 3rd depending on who is calling we should do it. This draft is loaded with 2nd and even 3rd round talent. That would give us an extra starter possibly more
January 24th, 2018 at 7:17 pm
With the success of Winston, Mariotta, Goff, Wentz & Watson…..it’s really hard for GMs….to pass on good young QB talent….sure there will be FAs available….but usually that is a short-term strategy.
I think there will be plenty of teams in the QB market…
And, yes….Winston was a successful pick.
I didn’t include Trubiski, Lynch or Mahones because there really isn’t enough to tell if they will end up being winners.
January 24th, 2018 at 7:32 pm
This is going to be one of the more interesting drafts I can recall. And the Bucs are actually looking pretty decent at #7 which is a very pivotal position.
Not too many drafts with 3-4 QBs rated very high. Don’t rule out the possibility of the Colts trading away their pick. The right QB is well worth a huge trade up in this league.
Cleveland could literally go in four different directions at #1……Our best chance might be if QBs start slipping then Licht will have to beat off the offers with a stick. They better be prepared for a wide range of options, unlike our gameday plans
January 24th, 2018 at 8:05 pm
Good thing we beat the saints….
January 24th, 2018 at 8:08 pm
Cleveland could pick Orlando Brown at #4….. why not? Makes sense to me.
If we do trade down a few spots and land Vita then thats a good deal (if Chubb and Nelson are gone). Get an edge rush next pick.
January 24th, 2018 at 8:29 pm
maybe we can draft, gaines adams, or Reagan Upshaw, Or Marcus Jones, or Daquan Bowers, Or Adrian Clayborn, some other bum, and let micheal bennit leave. we are what we say we are.
January 24th, 2018 at 8:37 pm
I can imagine Kirk Cousins throwing to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. I’m sure John Elway envision it every night.
January 24th, 2018 at 8:41 pm
If the Bucs want a edge rusher, Shaquem Griffin out of UCF is the guy! Very disruptive player with speed and a passion for the game!
January 24th, 2018 at 8:41 pm
https://www.landof10.com/big-ten/nfl-mock-draft-2018-first-round-projections-top-players-2018-nfl-draft-order-january-24
This mock has us landing Chubb at #7 and Vita going 26th…..if Vita drops that far, we better work on a trade back into the first for him!!!
Chubb and Vita as 1 and 2…..thats my dream. Then RB Penny if we dont sign someone VERY GOOD in FA.
January 24th, 2018 at 9:52 pm
My friend’s Tampa Bay Mock Draft has Jason Licht basically giving our entire draft away this year, to move up and take Chubb.
January 24th, 2018 at 10:32 pm
@Chris – I don’t see that happening, like others have said here the way the draft is going to play out is good for the Bucs no matter how it plays out. One of the players who fills a clear need will be available but if something crazy happened above us and Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Nelson, Barkley, and I will add in James are all gone then there will be a choice of QBs left to draft and we will be able to trade back in the draft more than likely.
January 24th, 2018 at 10:33 pm
@madmax – that would be a dream draft and if they added some CBs in FA that would be a near perfect offseason for the Bucs
January 24th, 2018 at 10:56 pm
Saquon, Chubb, Minkah or Nelson … or TRADE DOWN with the Bills for at least #21 and #22 … that’s it.
January 24th, 2018 at 11:09 pm
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LAKELAND,
I’ll respond to your post in the other thread here as this seems like the hot new “Draft Thread”.
I do NOT see the Browns taking Chubb. I see them going Saquon #1 and either Josh Allen or Minkah #4.
Now, I do understand your point of view on pairing Chubb with Garrett and I’m not saying you’re wrong to think the Browns SHOULD do that … I just don’t think they WILL do that for the following reasons:
1. I believe they desperately want Saquon and if they don’t take him at #1 they are not getting him at #4 as I believe the Giants will probably take him at #2 and the Colts will definitely take him if the Giants don’t.
2. As I believe the Browns will take Saquon #1, I simply think they will prioritize a QB like Josh Allen who has ELITE arm talent and who is on the record saying he WANTS to play for the Browns, over another defensive end.
3. I believe Saquon AND Chubb will both be off the board in the first 3 picks (Saquon #1 and Chubb #3) but I definitely believe that at least one of them will be taken by the Colts at #3 … so … whichever guy the Browns take at #1 is the only one they’re going to get as the other will be gone by #3 … I think it’s incredibly unlikely that the Browns get BOTH Saquon and Chubb.
ALL OF THE ABOVE SAID … there are two things that could blow up my current Browns mock, and they are:
1. The Browns sign Lev Bell … I actually think this could happen as I think he’s upset with Pittsburgh and I don’t think Pittsburgh wants to pay him what he wants, whereas I think the Browns will bank up the Brinks truck for him. If that happens, the Browns certainly are not taking Saquon.
2. The Browns sign Kirk Cousins or trade for Alex Smith … if either of those things happen I don’t see them drafting Josh Allen or any QB in the first round though I could still see them grab a guy like Mason Rudolph in the 2nd round if they don’t believe in Kizer.
Finally, JOE is spot on about Mayock’s mock … it’s the only one worth anything really imho as it’s post-free agency and due to his connections and mind for the draft. We’re all just guessing for now based on if the teams drafted tomorrow … in fact, I think I could nail 70% of the first round if the draft happened tomorrow … but it doesn’t … and one will have a much clearer picture after free agency has played out.
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January 24th, 2018 at 11:11 pm
You’ve been reading the threads, Joe. NFLNut has been talking about this for several weeks with numerous threads exploring the variants of this option.
And it doesn’t matter if there are 4-6 really good QBs, a team suffering for years without a good QB will just about sell their mother for the QB they covet. Consider the reaches for Ponder, Manuel, Mansfield, Trubisky, etc.
January 25th, 2018 at 12:01 am
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Just for fun … here’s my current “looking into the future, past the free agency period mock draft”:
BROWNS: Saquon Barkley
JETS (Trade with Giants): Josh Rosen
COLTS: Bradley Chubb
BROWNS: Josh Allen
BRONCOS: Quenton Nelson (I think they sign Kirk Cousins)
GIANTS: Mike McGlinchey (I have the Giants sticking w/ Eli+Webb at QB)
BILLS (Trade with Bucs): Sam Darnold
BEARS: Minkah Fitzpatrick
RAIDERS: Joshua Jackson
49’ERS: Denzel Ward
DOLPHINS: Roquan Smith
BENGALS: Tremaine Edmunds
REDSKINS: Baker Mayfield
PACKERS: Marcus Davenport
CARDINALS: Lamar Jackson
CHARGERS: Da’Ron Payne
SEAHAWKS: Orlando Brown
COWBOYS: Calvin Ridley
LIONS: Viti Vea
*** BUCS: Derwin James
*** BUCS: Arden Key
RAMS: Donte Jackson
PANTHERS: Sam Hubbard
TITANS: Billy Price
FALCONS: Isaiah Wynn
SAINTS: Carlton Davis
STEELERS: Rashaan Evans
JAGUARS: Kolton Miller
VIKINGS: Mason Rudolph
EAGLES: Connor Williams
PATRIOTS: Isaiah Oliver
SO … if the above happens I believe the Bucs can either stay put at #7 and take Minkah Fitzpatrick or trade down with the Bills and take both Derwin James and Arden Key … oh and by the way, if Sam Darnold is there at #7 and that is the QB that the Bills are trading up to get I, I actually think the Bucs will get a bit more than the #21 and #22 … perhaps an extra 2nd or an extra 3rd … nice, especially considering that IF Arden Key has his head screwed on straight and is in shape, he is by far the best sack-master in the draft … way ahead of Chubb … maybe being an LSU dude, Kwon and Beckwith will be able to keep him motivated!
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January 25th, 2018 at 12:02 am
NFLNut,
Thanks for responding
It’s early, a lot will change before the draft.
January 25th, 2018 at 7:25 am
With all of our needs. trading down to get 2 for one in the 1st rd would be the sensible..smart..and Wise thing to do. CHUBB’S gonna be gone. But notice I smentioned 3 qualities which are foreign to our Bucs. It won’t happen.
January 25th, 2018 at 8:58 am
I guess I’m in the minority of not wanting Chubb. As good of a player as he is… He had a major knee injury already in his career. I think it’s just too much of a Gamble to use a top 10 pick on a running back with a bad wheel. We just have too many other needs to risk it. I’m all in favor of trading down. But the focus regardless should be on defense. Great running backs can be found in the mid rounds… Just ask the Saints about Kamara
January 25th, 2018 at 10:03 am
Nfl Nut,
The Browns taking Chubb to pair with Garrett? Basically, it’s two players who are /were top prospects at the same spot. The duties of the right DE and the LF DE aren’t the same and the skill sets aren’t interchangeable. That’s one point.
The second is I don’t know if it’s possible for either one to switch sides and still maintain their level of play. Playing from the right side is different from the left side I’m terms of how a player moves. How He uses his legs and arms and the techniques are way different.
That in mind, it’s not likely for the browns to go with Chubb. But when has making sense and the Cleveland browns ever been so close together.
January 25th, 2018 at 11:20 am
Nfl Nut,
I have to mention that the browns took ogbah what 2yrs ago, I think if it’s a DE,
it wouldn’t be Chubb, it’s Davenport. Not saying they will, but I think it’s a great fit.
January 25th, 2018 at 11:26 am
@Joe,
I like the idea of trading down for 2 pks, Davenport and Gonzalez. I doubt Davenport is available past 15 so get him early then bolster the O line with Gonzalez. He’s a big guy with a nasty style of play. The guy is who sweezy was supposed to be.
January 25th, 2018 at 11:33 am
So touchdowntampabay,
You think that QB is the team’s biggest need? Should the team trade JW and draft or trade for a veteran?
January 25th, 2018 at 11:44 am
Touchdowntampa is an upset snowflake who’s upset he didn’t get 8 more years of handouts. And we’re you in the uber to see the alleged “groping”? Nah just more assumptions I guess.
January 25th, 2018 at 7:17 pm
Yeah I make $150k a year and work 60 hours a week it I’m looking for handouts. You and your Orangeman can gfo!
January 26th, 2018 at 12:10 am
TouchDownTampaBay,
You could also only make $6k a year and work 15 hours a week … no one knows and no one cares imo.
WHY do you hate the Donald so much? It’s very strange …
January 26th, 2018 at 1:40 am
Joe I have a question for you, I happen to think the best move in the draft if all the special players are gone by 7 is to trade back and draft Derwin James. I feel like he is a player that can change the whole culture of a defense. Isn’t rated high but I think he will tear up the combine and rise. I am not an FSU fan, just think he has ramsey type potential.
January 26th, 2018 at 1:51 am
If Chubb is off the board the player I like with our first pick is CB Denzel Ward (5-11 190) Ohio State. The need for a shutdown CB with or without Brent Grimes re-signing is there. Ward has speed, ball skills and can lock down a receiver. In coverage he plays in the pocket of his opponent and plays great against the run. The other top rated CB is CB Joshua Johnson (6-1 192) Iowa. Size is what Johnson has and exceptional ball skills. He produced eight interceptions and 18 pass break-ups. Either one would make a big difference in our secondary. The thought of trading back would make sense with both of these players projected to go somewhere between the 10th and 15th picks. Somehow trading with Buffalo for the 21st and 22nd picks, even if the Bucs have to do something to insure it happens, would give us two quality players. That would move us to be able to draft DT Christian Wilkins, (6-4 310) Clemson.
January 26th, 2018 at 1:56 am
Spooked by his knee.
January 26th, 2018 at 2:46 am
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^ I’m with Joe … but in my mock with the Bucs trading down with the Bills I did have them drafting both Derwin and Arden Key … both guys have issues that could drive them down into the 20s but if both are healthy (physically and mentally) they could be the two most dynamic defensive players in the entire draft.
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