Jameis And Accuracy

September 10th, 2017

Lives for pressure.

So opposing teams want to pressure America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston?

Careful what you wish for.

If Joe has to swallow stats, then Joe much prefers the Football Outsiders crowd than the PFF tribe. At least the Football Outsiders crowd tries to be objective. If their numbers don’t particularly match what they see, they say show.

The PFF tribe? Slaves to numbers, no matter what happens on the field.

Scott Kacsmar, who types for Football Outsiders, decided to dive deep on the Bucs for his 2017 prediction (he has the Bucs going 10-6 but missing the playoffs). He noted something about Jameis that ought to — but won’t — calm critics who nitpick the guy to death.

One issue the nitpickers have with Jameis is accuracy. There is a reason Jameis doesn’t throw for a high completion percentage, Kacsmar says.

Winston really is Cam Newton’s doppelganger. They both throw the deepest passes in the league at over 10 air yards per attempt. They led the NFL in off-target throw rate, partially due to the difficulty of their throws.

And there you have it. If a quarterback is more often than not trying to thread needles into tough spaces, of course his completion percentage will suffer.

As far as off-target throws? Joe noticed in training camp Jameis throws differently depending on his target. To O.J. Howard, Mike Evans and to a lesser degree Cam Brate? Jameis is throwing high.

As winning Bucs coach Dirk Koetter has told him, “Give your receiver a chance to make a play.” With those big guys, high throws are where they use their bodies and height advantage.

Jameis throws quite differently to DeSean Jackson, Rudy Humphries and, to a lesser degree, Chris Godwin. Those guys, with perhaps Godwin being an exception, can’t go up and make plays because they are not that big.

Additionally, Kacsmar, using BSPN’s QBR rating system (don’t ask Joe what it stands for or the accuracy of it), found that no quarterback under pressure in the past 10 years had a higher QBR rating than Jameis.

So, you still want to pressure Jameis?

11 Responses to “Jameis And Accuracy”

  1. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Speaking for Pablo

    “As most JBF posters know, both Jameis and Pablo are blessed with elongated arcs. Pablo knows Jameis’ “arc” doesn’t affect his accuracy because Pablo’s “arc” is very accurate…..Pablo always hits the bulls eye….proof of that is Pablo’s many, many, many Childrens”

  2. Oj "I Got The Juice" Howard Says:

    Saying they are doppelgangers is somewhat of a stretch. Yes they have similarities but they are very different quarterbacks. I believe that same article that you’re quoting, also mentions how Winston has one of the highest qbr’s against the blitz in the last decade. Or something to that degree.

  3. uckinator Says:

    Pablo – Sounds like you have a very fertile squeeze.

  4. Tampabaybucfan Says:


    Speaking for Pablo

    “Several fertil las mujeurres, cahitas and a couple of skank putas….muchos skank”

  5. bucnut2 Says:

    I just read the entire article. Its hard to argue with any of Scott’s points. I think Panthers and Falcons edge us out this year. 10-6 sounds just about right for us. I also like his points about Winston. Stay safe everyone!!!

  6. Cannuckbuc Says:

    Sorry to go off topic but please all Bucs fans and Florida friends please be safe

  7. Leighroy Says:

    Randy Moss just ranked Jameis ahead of Cam for NFC south QBs! Saying on the pregame show, “I prefer a passer, not a runner.”

  8. Iamabuc Says:

    Hogwash! They are not the same by any stretch. I’ll take Jaboo over Scam Newton, everyday and then some!

  9. Jack Burton Mercer Says:

    Sounds about right.

  10. Jack Burton Mercer Says:

    Additionally, Kacsmar, using BSPN’s QBR rating system (don’t ask Joe what it stands for or the accuracy of it), found that no quarterback under pressure in the past 10 years had a higher QBR rating than Jameis.

    QB under pressure. Hmm. Maybe get him some tackles and let’s see what happens.

  11. NFLNut Says:

    QBR is the most important stat for a quarterback and it always shocks me when I realize someone I’m talking to doesn’t even know what it is … it’s the king og QB stats and far more relevant than all others.

    By the way, Jameis has a higher career QBR than Mariota and Derek Carr by quite a bit.