“Where Does Need Meet Value?”
April 17th, 2017
GM Jason Licht has Dirk Koetter talking the talk
The Jason Licht draft philosophy has been burned into the brain of Dirk Koetter.
It was evident when Koetter repeated himself in less than five seconds at the NFC Coaches Breakfast last month in Phoenix.
Asked about the very deep running backs class in this draft, Koetter said Licht is all about, “Where does need meet value? Where does need meet value?”
One more time and Joe would have had Koetter’s pulse checked to make sure he wasn’t a robot.
So where, in fact, does need meet value for the Bucs?
Joe can type and type and type about what is the right play for the Bucs and what the Bucs are probably thinking in the draft. But the reality is neither Joe, nor Booger McFarland, nor anyone in the media is privy to the Bucs’ actual grades on players.
The Bucs pick 19th. Nineteenth! That means 18 other teams have a shot at snagging Tampa Bay’s top targets. Thats’ in addition to not knowing how the Bucs have ranked players on their big boards.
Licht’s personnel team has placed “value” and assessed the Bucs’ “need” in ways that would not be considered traditional or popular multiple times in past drafts.
So predicting the need/value chart is brutally difficult when it comes to the first round. And when it comes to first-rounders, throw in the fact ownership could always be a wild card partner in the call. After all, they have access to background research on all players and, well, it’s their team.
It’s fun to put a foot down on the Bucs’ first-round pick. And why not? But it’s really a mystery to nearly everyone not named Licht, who will host Joe and others for a news conference today at 11:30 a.m.
April 17th, 2017 at 10:05 am
Silly Season!! 10 more days of this nonsense. Can’t wait for it to be all over. It’s been worse than the Winston vs Mariota offseason.
April 17th, 2017 at 10:36 am
“Where Does Need Meet Value?”
Hopefully at pick #27 with the selection of Budda Baker after the Bucs trade down w/ KC and pick up additional 3rd and 5th round picks.
If Howard, Cook or Davis are on the board – then please JL, go that route. Otherwise I hope we can find a trade down partner to get extra picks in this deep draft.
April 17th, 2017 at 10:37 am
I agree JTHV! It’s been the Dalvin Cook/Adrian Peterson/Joe Mixon show.
I’m ready for real football!
April 17th, 2017 at 10:38 am
Where need meets value… AKA drafting the BPA, that aligns with a need, which is what all good organizations do….
April 17th, 2017 at 11:02 am
Been preaching this for a while. This is Lichts job and this is the first year he will truly be tested in this area. The first-third rounds this year are super critical How he maneuvers will define his draft. Moving back at 19 will be really tough due to the dearth of players in that zone. Moving up into the late first/early second will be possible, but it has to be done with precision. The amount of good players really makes this draft difficult but entertaining.
April 17th, 2017 at 11:03 am
NEED = RUNNING BACK/:/:/:MIXON =BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE/:/:/:VALUE IS UNBELIEVABLE/:/:/:HE IS THAT DAMN GOOD!!
April 17th, 2017 at 11:03 am
What he 👆said.
April 17th, 2017 at 11:04 am
– Unbelievable that is
April 17th, 2017 at 11:09 am
Countless top RBs across the NFL have been picked in later rounds.
This draft is full of RBs.
Drafting one in the first round is down-right irresponsible.
I just keep hoping someone grabs Cook before us so that we can draft a different position.
April 17th, 2017 at 11:18 am
I’m starting to think that last win against Carolina is gonna cost us a chance at a great player.
April 17th, 2017 at 11:23 am
Budda Baber at #19 is a reach.
Better value at Safety in the later rounds.
Best to draft a safety with size vs. an ankle biting midget that is too short to cover and too light to tackle
April 17th, 2017 at 11:26 am
We don’t know for a fact what their draft board looks like and what players they will pick? Feeling very informed suddenly after having perused this gem.
April 17th, 2017 at 11:37 am
Need meeting value has to depend on the value of the position that is the need, if that makes sense.
I keep saying this. RBs are undervalued in the NFL. So imo drafting an undervalued position early is overvaluing the need.
But if Booger is right and RB in the 1st round is already a forgone conclusion, then I hope Licht cleared up all the questions around Dalvin Cook.
April 17th, 2017 at 11:39 am
“So predicting the need/value chart is brutally difficult… ”
Not for “Infamous Dave!”
In Licht We Trust!!!
April 17th, 2017 at 11:57 am
Best value..offensive lineman..we should be able to get the best in this draft
OR trade down.
April 17th, 2017 at 12:11 pm
When you consider 3 Q.B.’s, 2 D.E.’s, 1 or 2 L.T.’s, at least 2 C.B.’s, 1 safety, 1 R.B., at least 1 W.R. will be picked before we’re on the clock, we actually have the 8th pick in the draft. Someone good will be there, probably D.Cook. For all clamoring for us to pick a safety with that pick, consider. Last game of the season our offense scored a grand total of 10 points. Everyone seems to forget K. Tandy had 12 solo tackles in that game, and two picks. Now you tell me where our greatest need is.
April 17th, 2017 at 12:13 pm
Next to Tandy
April 17th, 2017 at 12:32 pm
Pickgrin
I like the way you think. If we can’t get Dalvin or Howard at 19 and could pull off a trade down that would bring a couple of extra picks I’d be on board.
April 17th, 2017 at 12:39 pm
The ‘where does need meet value’ question is difficult when looking at 1st rnd options, but imagine how much tougher it gets when folks start trying to evaluate the 2nd rnd, or 3rd, or 4th down to the 7th rnd options. Those scenarios get infinitely more complex, and my suspicion is that it gets to be a ‘pull it out of your tail’ gut instinct reaction down towards the end. Jason Licht has shown that he can be a bit of a gambler, but I just hope that this year he doesn’t gamble too much with our rnds 1-3 selections. Bucs need to find a top-dog RB, a Safety capable of starting, and a DE capable of rotating in who can pressure QBs and hold his own against the run.
April 17th, 2017 at 12:45 pm
There is going to be a lot of trades in this draft. Some Teams have immediate needs and some teams can be patient. Litch is sitting pretty comfortable right now, especially since we have a good foundation across the team. Obviously we need more talent in certain positions and even some upgrades but we are not so desperate that we need to mortgage our future on a risky player. We do not have any need so desperate that we need to trade up either. Litch is going to just watch the draft unfold in the first 15 picks and see who falls.
several things for sure will happen. There will be trades, prospects will fall, there will be a run on a specific position, QBs are in high demand and some team will overvalue a prospect causing a movement in the draft that will create a frenzy.
So I love that fact that we are sitting at 19. Litch can take BPA or trade back and get ammo for another trade or more picks.
Would you rather have.
1. RB Cook
2. TE Engram
3. FS Marcus Maye
Or Trade back for extra 3rd and 5th. Use extra 5th to move up in round 3
1. TE David Njoku (just as fast as WR)
2. FS Budda Baker (instincts and ball skills)
3. DE Jordan Willis (pass rusher)
3. RB Marlon Mack (multi purpose)
The above prospects have been heavily scouted by the Bucs
April 17th, 2017 at 1:04 pm
PA I too believe their will be a number of trades this draft. My only issue with your list tho is Budda Baker. Can the kid cover is what I’m curious to know. Last year it was the kid from West Virginia the Missile they called him( don’t recall his name ) because I don’t recall ever seeing a highlight of him last season. I think alot of fans become enamored with these in the box safeties but do they fit our system because I can’t recall the last time I witnessed a Buc safety at the los. When I watch his highlight I see a awful lot of los play from the kid.
April 17th, 2017 at 1:22 pm
We go through this every year, that philosophical argument that involves value, need, and best Available player. I have always wondered whats so valuable about picking a low need player. I think Need has precedence, Value is subjective, and Best Available is only relative in later rounds. Unless you are a perennial Super Bowl winner in which case you have figured out that coaching and disciplined cap management are by far more important than Need, Value, and the 32 contesting opinions over Best Available. 10 days and counting.
April 17th, 2017 at 1:53 pm
studies show that monkeys throwing darts are better at beating the market than stock brokers.
Same with the draft ill bet.
I know a monkey would have done miles better than the rock star.
April 17th, 2017 at 1:58 pm
Baker has excellent coverage skills NOS. Quite a few mockers have moved him into their “nickle” category and he sits either 1st or 2nd on everyone’s list at that designation.
The knock on Baker and only reason he’s not talked about as a for sure top 20 pick – is due to “concerns about his size”. Which is meaningless in my perception of Budda. Just watch the tape. Dude is a baller. GREAT instincts. And VERY fast w/ his closing speed. A sure tackler and he can bring the wood as well as make athletic plays on the ball downfield.
IMO, Baker is going to be a very good all around safety in the NFL.
April 17th, 2017 at 2:08 pm
@NOLE….karl joseph for the raiders…..he began the season either on IR or the PUP list….played pretty good vs the divisional opponents(the only raiders games I saw were vs the bucs, chargers, broncos and chiefs)….he can cover and hit like a mack truck…..he took nate allen’s job and played well next to reggie nelson….that kid is a beast….he’ll only get better with a full offseason to train instead of rehab….bubba baker is a good player but I like Justin Evans from TAMU….GO BUCS!!!!
April 17th, 2017 at 2:10 pm
@NOSBOS
The list I produced above comes from 3 things that are not my personal choices. As far as Budda Baker will instincts overcome physical traits at Pro level?
The above lists are based on the Bucs scouting
1. General Average Prospect Ranking (ex Cook 20 and Mixon 50)
2. The highest amount of Interest from Bucs (Private Work/Meet)
3. Total number of prospects per position. (ex Bucs have scouted 9 RBs)
I take that and then make a breakdown and find which positions are scouted most, cross that with ranking (bucs pick) and cross with highest interest.
RB is high priority but only Cook has a 1st round grade of all the Rbs that the Bucs have scouted. However the Bucs have scouted lots of RBs in 3-UDFA rounds. So pick/availabilty/talent = value. My belief is we will see BPA(RB) rounds 2-UDFA. The bucs have scouted no WRs in the first either. They have scouted TEs heavily in the first 2 rounds. They have scouted DTs, OL and WRs heavily in rounds 2&3.
What I am saying is that if you look at all of that data, you see the Bucs really interested in late 1st through mid 3rd. I think they will maximize their effort in that area for extra picks.
April 17th, 2017 at 2:12 pm
I agree with Pilgrim!! Howard, Cook or Davis or trade back!
April 17th, 2017 at 7:04 pm
813 Pick and PA I’m more educated now. Salute.
April 18th, 2017 at 1:03 am
We will have a real trade partner in either KC or Cleveland. KC want their value QB ahead of Houston and each other at 19… Licht please trade back and get a couple extra picks. If Cook slides pick him at a better value otherwise Immediate Impact, W for W and D youth!!!!
1. TE David Njoku (Immediate Impact) ME13, Brate, DeJax and Njoke and Henderson(Rd3) on the field, Defensive nightmare
2. CB Adoree’ Jackson (will spell Grimes and replace Shep as ST returner)
3. DE Jordan Willis (pass rusher, will replace Gholston and retire Ayers next year)
3. WR Carlos Henderson (will push Hump this year and retire DeJax next year)
4. RB Dontae Foreman (Steal of Draft, New Buc Thunder) have enough lightning (Martin, Simms, Quizz, Barber)
5. CB Rasul Douglas (could Start day one, will beat Jude for Nickle)
5. SS Eddie Jackson (slides due to injury) will start next year and be ST ACE with Jackson above….
6. WR Taywan Taylor (Second Most productive WR no one is talking about this stud, major steal)
7. C Toms (Freak Athlete) Will push Marpett back to RG where he belongs next year