Projecting Mike Evans’ Numbers
March 18th, 2017
Good times ahead.
Yes, when the Bucs signed receiver Flash Jackson, immediately folks thought about how much he could help America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.
And while studly receiver Mike Evans should also be a beneficiary of DJax on the other side of the field, this element almost was forgotten amid the glee of Bucs fans giddy over the signing.
How much, however, can Evans take advantage of defenses being forced to play honest with DJax on the other side of the field?
Buccaneers.com multimedia maven Scott Smith suggested look no further than DJax’s former teammate in Washington, Pierre Garcon.
Last year, while Jackson was racking up 1,005 yards and 17.9 yards per catch, Garçon led the team with 79 catches on 114 targets, a success rate of 69.2%. In the three years that Garçon played with Jackson, he caught 219 passes on 330 targets, a rate of 66.4%. In his other five, non-Jackson seasons, Garçon caught passes on 57.7% of the plays he was targeted. … There’s a good chance that Jackson’s presence will make the 23-year-old rising star even better.
Now think about that for a moment.
In three of Garçon’s first four seasons in the league, playing at Indianapolis, he had Peyton Manning throwing to him. In Washington, it was mostly Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball.
No one in their right mind would suggest Cousins is better than Manning, but Garçon had three of his best seasons in Washington playing alongside DJax.
So Smith has hit the nail on the head. Given this information, it is not out of the realm of possibility Evans could totally blow up with DJax drawing so much attention.
March 18th, 2017 at 10:05 am
I can see Evans catching around 80 balls for 1000 yards and 10 TDs
March 18th, 2017 at 10:05 am
But Joe Evans can’t catch, remember? KY Hands if I recall correctly.
Sometimes it takes time to clear all traces of lube hands. –Joe
March 18th, 2017 at 10:06 am
Cousins is a lot better than people think I tell you that! The skins are just a very bad organization!
March 18th, 2017 at 10:14 am
If MIke Evans kep the same work attitude during off season and positive attitude on the field, he will be devastating !
March 18th, 2017 at 10:26 am
No excuses for ME…
March 18th, 2017 at 10:40 am
I would say 110 rec.- 1550 yds – 10/12 TD is doable if our defense improves and gives the offense two or three more possessions a game.
March 18th, 2017 at 10:47 am
It all comes down to The Messiah. If he has time to throw I’ll give Evans 18 TDs about 1800 yards. If the Messiah is running a 5k between snaps then maybe 1100 yards and 6-10 TDs. That is of course if all the trace amounts of KY have evaporated. 🙃
March 18th, 2017 at 10:57 am
i don’t think he’ll put up too crazy of a number for yards but forsure double digit tds i’m gonna go with 80-90 catches 1200 yds 11 tds and d jax gonna go for 50-60 catches 1000 yds and 6-8 tds gonna be nice don’t sleep on humphries and brats tho they might benefit most from this move with people now mostly concerned with stopping mike and d jax the underneath and intermediate stuff is gonna be wide open and that’s were these guys make their money
March 18th, 2017 at 10:59 am
ME should crack 100 with DJax and Humphries around 60 and 40 respectively.
I like to see the ball spread around to the RBs, Another WR (rookie and Murphy?) Brate, etc…
March 18th, 2017 at 11:02 am
They do need to get another speedster in the draft.
If DJax gets hurt, the entire offense will change drastically.
March 18th, 2017 at 11:08 am
Somewhere around 100 catches.
1300+ yards
9-11 TDs
D Jax will also see 1000+
5-7 TDs
Barring any injuries, of course.
March 18th, 2017 at 11:16 am
I would not be surprised if his numbers go up… But his numbers are already really freaking good…
The number that I will be paying attention to most will be his YAC… Assume he gets the same amount of targets MAYBE LESS because others will have the same benefits as ME…
The difference will be the coverage or lack thereof. He should be able to break more tackles this year regardless because he is getting stronger at this point…
Imagine a Terrel Owens type year… Less targets higher catch rate due to better routes and less coverage… coverage factor equals more room to run a truck DBs…
Im calling it now. 1500 yards with less contact at time of catch add another 300 yards or less… Should be able to run in another 5 TDs… So I will give him at least what he has done before and say 12 TDs
So lets make if offical and say,
1650 yards 12TDs with 500 yards coming in the form of YAC…
However, WHEN we RESIGN VJax those TD numbers might take a huge hit…
But NO DOUBT DJax will put the pressure on the D and open up all the windows Mike Likes to run through…
DJax will benifit too… He should get close if not exceed his career year… RESIGNING VJax would help make that possible as well… MORE FIRST DOWNS EQUALS MORE OPPORTUNITY. VJax would be a 3 down specialist for sure!!!
March 18th, 2017 at 11:33 am
The big question is what will jujus numbers be?
March 18th, 2017 at 11:45 am
1200 yards and 11 TDs
March 18th, 2017 at 12:17 pm
1965 yds 24 TDs
hallelujah.
March 18th, 2017 at 12:38 pm
It will be interesting to see the impact D-Jax has on the offense. Winstons weakest attribute is his deep ball accuracy, and Jackson will be dependent on that. Cousins was one of the best at 50%, and Jameis was one of the worst at 35%. Will Jackson actually improve Winstons numbers, or will Winstons deep ball bring Jackson down? We’ll see. Hopefully they can connect often enough to keep the threat alive. I think that will be Jacksons biggest contribution.
March 18th, 2017 at 12:41 pm
And Evans is on a different level then garçon. It’s gonna get filthy
March 18th, 2017 at 12:55 pm
ME13 will do very well as will DJAX and Brate and Hump.
But I am totally unconcerned with their individual stats. I really don’t care who catches the ball as long as we win our division and a first round bye in the playoffs. We should SERIOUSLY be thinking about how to get to Minneapolis.
March 18th, 2017 at 1:03 pm
ME will catch 106 balls for 1,388 yds and 12 TDs.
Jackson numbers depends on who the Bucs draft at WR and TE in the early rounds.
March 18th, 2017 at 1:37 pm
I think winstons deep ball average was so low cause no one on the team could catch up his passes. He’s got a cannon of an arm, for sure. But our receivers weren’t exactly running by DBs. He needs to work on his accuracy and ball placement but now that he has a true burner I don’t forsee him overthrowing djax. I feel like he would chuck the ball as far as he could in hopes the receiver would beat his man and ultimately score a TD. Maybe he was used to getting away with that in college, idk.
March 18th, 2017 at 1:52 pm
A new name is in the talk for the second round that would really help!
Chris Godwin.He would really open up the passing game and even better if they get a TE in the 1st!
Zay Jones is most likely working his way to late 1st or early 2nd round.
March 18th, 2017 at 2:01 pm
These kind of projections are silly. Evans will get his 1000 yards, but the numbers might be down with DJax grabbing his share. Humphries will catch some. Brate, plus possibly a rookie TE, not to mention the rookie WR we draft, all will get their share. And if they get the running game going, we may not pass as often as we did last year… There’s too many variables to account for to make such projections.
March 18th, 2017 at 4:20 pm
Agreed projections are silly hence mine was 1 more yard and TD than the current NFL records. Its silly season.
I have said this a few times but this team needs OL help for #3 to meet the expectations; we simply do not have enough quality or depth at the moment. #3 needs time or he tends to overthrow under pressure. Im not sure why we and most of the league has passed on Mangold but there must be a reason.
March 18th, 2017 at 4:33 pm
SoCal – I like both of those WRs and Curtis Samuel as picks for the Bucs.
March 18th, 2017 at 4:43 pm
1100 and 10 should be well within reach for Evans
March 18th, 2017 at 4:51 pm
We should move up to get WR John Ross and then get RB Mack from USF. I love the way Licht approached the draft last year with VH and Spence.
12-4 and a Bye would be sweet….StPete!
In Licht I trust!!!
March 18th, 2017 at 11:35 pm
I don’t think it changes Evans numbers in the least. Hopefully this means Dirk will open his offense back up after being awful with the play calling last year and and doing his best Mike Shula 1999 impression of just running up the middle on every first down and thinking you’ll somehow catch the other team off guard. Hint… when the other team has 17 people in the box on first down and you run right up the gut until you’re down by 2 scores, no, that’s not a recipe to success. When Ray Perkins was here you could gameplan out the entire game on Wednesday, it was run left, run right, throw deep. Replace left with middle, replace right with left, and that was 75% of the Bucs playing in 2016. Dirk needs to step it up and mix it up and get back to what he was doing in 2015. Of course in 2015 he wasn’t the head coach and he got to sit in the box and see the entire field, something he wasn’t able to do last year. In fact last year I thought they should have moved Mike Smith to the sideline and had Dirk up in the box, I’d have been fascinated to see how it would have went with that one change.