Magic Numbers For Mike Smith

November 22nd, 2016
New job in six weeks?

New job in six weeks?

UPDATED: 10:02 a.m. Don’t look now, but Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith is racking up impressive data through 10 games.

At this rate, Smith will have his second head coaching job in six short weeks.

If you’re unfamiliar with the dominant history of Mike Smith defenses, then click here for an instant education. The man was masterful with the Jaguars over a five-year stretch, and he didn’t have any Hall of Famers to work with.

Quietly, the Bucs defense is jelling, and it’s healthy.

((Previously written here was some inaccurate data. Apologies.))

Teams are only completing 62.7 percent of their passes against Tampa Bay. Lovie Smith’s Bucs last year allowed a whopping 70 percent rate for opposing quarterbacks. In 2014, it was 68.4 percent complete against the Bucs.

You’d have to go back to the Raheem Morris administration to find a Bucs team allowing less than a 62.7 percent completion rate. And keep in mind Mike Smith’s group is still getting its communication down — and its pass rush talent is weak.

Overall, Smith’s defense is on the upswing and could find itself middle of the pack statistically by the end of the season.

Nothing against Smith, but Joe sure hopes Smith somehow is not a hot candidate for a head coaching job. But Joe is confident Smith will emerge in that realm soon.

Smith’s resumé is too strong to be ignored. In 2008, he took over an historic mess in Atlanta and had an 11-5 record that launched quite a run.

35 Responses to “Magic Numbers For Mike Smith”

  1. Bucsfanman Says:

    I like what he’s done, but it’s a small sample size.
    Overall improvement is not saying much. This defense was awful last year. Keep working Smitty! I like what I’ve seen the last 2 weeks.

  2. Trev Says:

    Joe edited. Thank you.–Joe

  3. Doctor Stroud Says:

    The stars will have to align just right for Smith to become head coach again. There are so many younger coordinators out there who will get their shot, and front offices want to look for the next Adam Gase who has experienced some success so far. The top (or bottom) jobs will probably be: Jacksonville, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, and maybe San Diego and Cincinnati. Living in NE Florida, I can tell you without a doubt that Gus Bradley is gone. The players “learn” from their losses every week. I mention this because that could be a possible destination for Smith. Could Bradley wind up in Tampa as a DC? That would be consistent with our recent history of recycling coaches from Jacksonville/Atlanta. I would not support that move.

  4. SB with Jameis Says:

    Ok BigHog and Kobe Faker……………care to chime in??
    Oh that’s right Kobe is gone.. 🙂
    Maybe just maybe, BigHog is seeing the light too.

  5. Ryan Says:

    Hey joe, those look like our offenses’ numbers. Defense is at 25.9 ppg and 381.7 ypg, good for 24th and 26th.

  6. The bucfan 88 Says:

    Omg please don’t go mike

  7. MarineBucsFan Says:

    With this so called pack that he and Koetter have, i wonder if he even wants to leave. Specifically if the Bucs turn the corner this year and become a true contender ( I compare this to a late game thats already determined, pad your stats Coach Smith. You will be a Head Coach again in this league).

    Most of us believe that Coach Hayes (Dline) is the next Defensive Coordinator of the Bucs once Coach Smith moves on to a Head Coaching gig. This makes me wonder with consideration to Banks comments; if Coach Hayes will be running the same defensive scheme, tweak it a liitle, or completely change the scheme.

    Go Bucs.

  8. pabucfan55 Says:

    Yea those numbers arent right. Wish our defense was ranked 11th.

  9. Glennongrad Says:

    The stats don’t tell the whole story, even if they are accurate. Eyeball test will tell many coaches that our defense really ain’t lighting up the field. I would be surprised to see him leave unless the defense truly turns the corner and shuts down maybe… Dallas and Sand Diego 🙂

  10. Warrenfb12 Says:

    Ya they have also been really bad. I think that it will take him another year of solid production.

  11. MnBucsFan Says:

    I think mike smith will be the jags next head coach based off of his previous success as a head coach and his history in Jacksonville

  12. Defense Rules Says:

    I hope that Smitty does get a HC job when 2016 ends. He’s a great guy and deserves another HC opportunity. If it comes though, my guess is that it’d be Jacksonville and I suspect that he’d do an excellent job there … they’ve got some excellent talent; they just need a little more of it and then to put it all together, especially on defense.

  13. Tampa Tony Says:

    I love it when the Joes post something that is unintentionally hilarious. Smith ain’t going anywhere. Playing the Bears and Alex Smith isn’t gonna get him a head coaching gig. His scheme is way to passive to get him another job

  14. DCBUCSFAN Says:

    You’re getting waaaaaaaayyyyy ahead of yourselves!

  15. gotbbucs Says:

    I’m hoping as a close friend to Dirk that he wouldn’t pull something like that on him. I could see him possibly leaving in 2 or 3 years.

  16. Dreambig Says:

    All depends on what happens from here. This defense did give up 1000+ yards in two games and that was just a few weeks ago.

  17. pick6 Says:

    let’s hope people are scared off by his niceness and white hair. Among many other things, I’d hate to see how much further Lavonte might regress with a new coordinator, since he seems to get worse every time we make a change at that spot

  18. JonBuc Says:

    Don’t just pump the brakes….lock them up.

  19. MarineBucsFan Says:

    Im aware of the poor performances early in the year, i just think everyone looks more comfortable in the scheme the past two weeks.

  20. LUVMYBUCS Says:


    You’re getting waaaaaaaayyyyy ahead of yourselves!

    Lol, U aint neva lied

  21. feelthepewterpower Says:

    Joe, the pass rush efficiency metric on Warren Sharp’s website has them in the top half of the league (14th overall). That was with the Buccs missing Ayers, McCoy, McDonald, etc. for a game or more as well.

    Though I will say, I noticed too that the Buccs have mostly played weak passing offenses. The offenses they face that were near the top in that regard, they gave-up 24 or more points (Atlanta 2x, Oakland).

  22. feelthepewterpower Says:

    Actually, pass protection efficiency metric is 13th* overall…their pass efficiency rating is 14th overall….but again they’ve played easy passing offenses mainly.

  23. BigHogHaynes Says:

    I’m here SB/J, get to 9 wins and I will see the light, we should get to 9 wins, I never said Play-offs, just get the 9th win, SEATTLE, DALLAS are on the horizon, that is when I’ll use the smell test, I did say 9 wins and I see the light!! We were 6 and 6 last year and we all know what happened! I’m not looking for that to happen, I’m looking for 9 wins in any means necessary!

  24. celly Says:

    Best case scenario: Smith gets a job as a HC somewhere due to the great job our Defense has done. Jay Hayes gets promoted to DC and we can hopefully add some pieces to generate a stronger pass rush.

    Worst case scenario: Smitty doesn’t get a job as a HC. We get some pieces to help improve our pass rush. Our defense has another season in the same exact system and they can improve even more next season.

    Sounds like a win/win scenario to me.

  25. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    If any team thinks he’s done a good enough job to hire him, that team better be ready to lose. He hasn’t done THAT great of a job. I do think things are a little better, but this defense is nowhere near where it needs to be.

    Personally, I think coordinators should be required to honor at least two thirds of their contracts before they can be hired away.

  26. NickTheKnife Says:

    We can only hope he gets a HC job he is an awful DC.

  27. Bucsfanman Says:

    Yeah Bonzai! It’s nowhere near enough of a resume IMO. At least based on this year’s D anyway.

  28. America's Commenter Says:

    Two weeks ago, Mike Smith was being lambasted on these pages for the horrible performance of the defense. Now, two weeks later, he’s a potential hot head coaching candidate? Does not compute!

  29. unbelievable Says:

    Gotta agree w/ Tony on this one. KC and CHI are not good offenses. Let’s see how they fair against Seattle, Dallas, and San Diego before we go prognosticating Mike Smith as a HC next year.

  30. ManzielMadness Says:

    Don’t know if he’ll leave, but if he does i hope the new DC doesn’t completely change the scheme…. getting tired of waiting for a DEF to gel every friggin’ year

  31. Bird Says:

    NO chance!

  32. JBF_Addict Says:

    Bird sucks.

    In other news, let’s win a few more first before we really begin to believe in this defense.

  33. Warthog Says:

    Um yeah Joe cmon man Smith is doing a little better the last two weeks but he’s still no defensive mastermind. Be real son.

  34. Robert G Says:

    Buccaneers beat the falcons who have the best offense in the league. Only team remaining on schedule they should worry about is the chargers. All the rest have middle of the league offenses. Bears and chiefs had middle of the league offenses and the buccaneers handled them. Seahawks and Cowboys can be beat by this buccaneers team.

  35. MegaDaveUK Says:

    He won’t go anywhere and i’d bet my guitar on it. He is here with Koetter to build a franchise and win a superbowl. Maybe then, maybe after some playoff races and atleast a championship – but he’s committed and unless Jason or Dirk physically fight him, he’s got no reason to leave