“9 Or 10” Wins

May 18th, 2016

Pressure cranks up

Flames are rising around Dirk Koetter.

Right now, they’re warm and inspiring.

This afternoon on WDAE-AM 620, lunchtime host J.P. Peterson flew solo and ranted about how the Bucs had another strong draft, made smart win-now moves in free agency, and he happily chirped that the Bucs’ “culture change” is moving so quickly that great things are coming this season.

Peterson expects “9 or 10” wins in 2016.

Joe understands a lot of readers are now saying to themselves. “Joe, who cares what J.P. Peterson has to say in May?” Fair question, but Joe’s looking to Peterson’s words in the broader scope of the immense pressure on Koetter, a newbie head coach. Local voices are expecting a winning season, so are loud national voices on NFL.com.

Outside of Chucky, no Buccaneers head coach launched his regime with higher expectations than the ones now on Dirk Koetter’s back.

Sam Wyche took over a 3-13 team in the dumps. Father Dungy inherited Wyche’s mess and the 27th-ranked offense and defense. Little was expected out of the gate from Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano. Every sane person knew Lovie Smith couldn’t contend the minute he named Josh McCown as his starter in March 2014.

Koetter has massive weight on his shoulders. Joe has written repeatedly that Koetter will face unemployment if he can’t produce a winning season in the next two years.

Team Glazer has no patience for mediocrity. Rightfully so.

Look for more and more bold predictions for the 2016 Bucs, equaling more and more pressure on Koetter in a very tough division.

Joe, right now, has simpler goals for Koetter and the Bucs. After opening at Atlanta and at Arizona, followed by home games against the Rams and Super Bowl champion Broncos, before a trip to Carolina on Monday Night Football, Joe wants to see the Bucs figure out how to enter the bye week at 2-3.

That would be a great first step for a new head coach facing a brutal early schedule.

47 Responses to ““9 Or 10” Wins”

  1. GhostofSchiano Says:

    I see a win at Atlanta, Arizona…maybe, if our “D” has vastly improved. The Rams, again, if our “D” has vastly improved as we most likely face a rookie QB in only his third NFL start. Then the Broncos…..against that Defense….might be Aguayos game to win or lose. GO BUCS

  2. Brenden Says:

    I can’t disagree with your take on Koetter’s situation. I disagree with your statement about the Glazers. They’ve saddled this team/community with mediocrity since Gruden left. They are in it for one thing and it’s not winning.

  3. K2 Says:

    I agree that expectation are building. However, I think one of the main reasons that Lovie lost his job was the lack of adjustments or answers. So while I agree that Glazers want improvement…I don’t think they make change for the sake of change. They are businessmen that understand that not every move falls to the bottom line immediately. I give them credit for understand that Lovie was telling the same story and expecting a different result. The big question is how are we going to build a better team in the coming year. The Glaziers will look at the vision and the execution not just the record.

  4. Dewey Selmon Says:

    Dirk gets a pass this year. He is a first year HC with a 2nd year qb, a DC implementing a new defense and a brutal schedule. Winston will not throw for 4,000 yards(he had alot of garbage timeyards last year). The Bucs will finish 7-9 and then make the playoffs in 2017 and everyone will stop talking about bad hires and sophmore slumps.

  5. DallasBuc Says:

    Who forced incompetent Lovie Smith and his lapdog GM to pay Trash McCown $5mil a year for 2 years only to win a single game with that loser?
    As I recall, the expectations were quite high despite their woefully misguided roster disasters.

  6. DallasBuc Says:

    Expectations for Koetter should be high. There are no excuses with a QB like Winston.
    Time to raise the standards around these parts and it is now possible with incompetent Lovie Smith soiling another football program far far away from here.
    Go Bucs

  7. tmaxcon Says:

    I’m going with 8 wins. 1st year head coach koetter will match the incompetent ones 2 year win total. I agree bucs will seriously contend 2017… Winston will earn his second pro bowl birth. GMC will miss 4 to 6 games putting more pressure on Spence. Verner and Banks will rebound. The new WR coach will get through to Evans and he will be a terror. Unfortunately vjax will miss games thus costing bucs some wins. Bell get his first catch but will not be a difference maker. WR and DT will be high priorities in next draft

  8. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    I agree with Dewey Selmon…….

    You won’t find a more hopeful optimistic fan than TBBF……I would be very happy if we could go 8-8 with this schedule……and could beat Carolina at least once.

  9. tmaxcon Says:

    i forgot to mention on my prediction GMC will miss 4 to 6 games but will be healthy for the pro bowl. he would not want to miss any tv time.

  10. Kevin Says:

    I dont think koetter feels pressure. He knows that if he does his job and does it well everything will fall into place. Stay in your lane as koetter always says….stay in your lane and all will be fine!!!!!

  11. 813bucboi Says:

    im expecting 10 wins and playoffs….with all the moves licht has made, his actions suggest win now….no way in hell dirk gets a pass this year….he has a talented team, franchise qb, great defensive staff and talent on the defense….not buying the schedule excuse…teams that made it last year will take a step back and teams like the bucs will take a step forward…it happens every year…he has everything in place…10wins with playoffs or someone is on the hot seat(licht)….GO BUCS!!!!

  12. GhostofSchiano Says:

    @813bucboi….Which teams on our schedule do you think took a step back? I expect Denver to maybe take a step back, but Oakland? I think San Francisco, San Diego, rebuilding, but the rest of the schedule is going to be tough.

  13. d-roca Says:

    5-0 before the bye. Does a real bucs fan ever expect to go less than 16-0 before the games are played? Not this one. Go bucs

  14. 813bucboi Says:

    @ghost…you could throw in panthers and seahawks….seattle has a very shaky oline and even tho the panthers went 15-2 I doubt they can duplicate that same success…they did go 7-9 the year before with basically the same exact team….not worried about atl…with the 3 I named and 3 you named that’s 6 teams right there….GO BUCS!!!!

  15. Tampa Tony Says:

    Anything less than 7 wins is a disappointment

    Returning a top 10 offense and there is enough talent on d to be competitive

    First year HC and a lot of 1st and 2nd year players in key roles is not a recipe for instant success

    As always go Bucs

  16. Bob in Valrico Says:

    Koetter has already accomplished what Lovie failed to do in two years build a qualified staff to put players in a position to succeed.I think Glazers have noticed the improvements and the fans optimism rising.One of their goals is to put fans in the seats.

  17. Buc1987 Says:

    tmax…my crystal ball sees 8 wins too with +1 or -1 margin of error.lol

    So it’s 8-8, 7-9 or 9-7. Want to be wrong and get to 10 though.

  18. Buccaneers Says:

    Sure I’ll poke the fire.

    If Lovie Smith was so “incompetent” like I just read then how was he able to get handed the keys of a struggling franchise and now have us setup to go on a playoff run?

    Now I can agree with the rebuttal that if they retain Lovie expectation might be lower. But rebuilding a bad team into one expected to win doesn’t just happen. And it won’t be possible if the guy in charge is incompetent.

  19. GhostofSchiano Says:


    I think a lot has to do with Lovies insistence that the Bucs run an archaic form of a defense, a scheme that for whatever reason (Coaching / players) could not implement. I think Mike Smith has evaluated the players and will run a defense based on those evaluations playing to their strengths and hopefully correcting any weaknesses. GO BUCS!!

  20. LordCornelius Says:

    9-10 is fair . We have a QB for once in our lives

  21. OneBuc55 Says:

    Yes we do begin the season against some good teams on paper…but in reality, the only QB that we face in the first 5 weeks I’m worried about is Cam Newton…I have officially drank the kool – aid…I believe we can and will shock the league this upcoming season…for the first time in a long time (possibly ever) we have a stud or 2 at every position (even kicker lol)…this also by far the best coaching staff we’ve had here in a really long time…1 thing is for sure, we won’t have to wait very long to see what kind of team we have…man, the season can’t start soon enough…

  22. Mike Johnson Says:

    its the..Koetter praise show! Open up yer hymnal to page 5 and join us in singin, We just gon fly away!!! You guys are a trip. Koetter ain’t done one iota yet but show his colgate smile. I do agree with Joe though. You got 2yrs Mr. Koetter. Just like everybody else had. 31 other teams have tough schedules too. Win or join your buddies in pew no 5 singin, We shall not be moved!

  23. DallasBuc Says:

    Buccaneers- if by setting us up for a playoff run you mean being so incompetent as to having earned the 1st overall pick in the draft to get Winston by dubious virtue of coaching the worst team in the league by a mile and worst in Bucs history in decades then yes, he set us up well by being so damn incompetent. I suppose I should thank him for that but I would rather give the Glazers credit for firing him immediately after acknowledging what a bad mistake they had made in his hire and seizing the opportunity to put a real football coach in charge of the team.
    The contingent of incompetent Lovie Smith apologists is still live and well!

  24. Buccaneers Says:

    Strengh of schedule is a cope out IMO. If you think we can’t go to playoffs because of SOS then you have to say we are a not a good team, at least not playoff good.

    Playoff teams find a way to win big games to put themselves in a playoff position. And SOS doesn’t matter because if they are a playoff team they are good enough to beat other good teams to do so.

    True contenders don’t make it because of their schedule they make it because when they need to win a game they man up and take it. Guarantee you Patroit or Seahawks fans don’t predict an 7-8 win season when they look at their schedule. If you don’t think we are good enough just admit it.

    I think we could be good enough but have a lot to prove. I’ll make my optimistic prediction at 10-6 and wildcard…..we will beat the panthers Atlanta NO twice, Rams, upset Denver, upset Seattle, revenge Chicago, SD and ummmm fielders choice. Don’t care if I’m wrong, the Bucs have gone under my projected win total for about fifteen years now. But I do believe this is entirely possible if this team gets a winning attitude.

  25. Pickgrin Says:

    8 or 9 wins sounds about right to me with the level of talent and experience we have right now and considering the implementation of a new defensive system and tough schedule. We could exceed expectations and get to 10 wins with good play and some luck – but 10 wins only gives about a 50/50 shot or worse at making the playoffs unless you win your division.

    The important thing to me regardless of the # of wins and/or playoffs this year is for the team to be competitive in most every game – and also to get better as the season progresses. If the Bucs can be “in it” in the 4th quarter more often than not – then I guarantee you will see Jameis Winston leading come backs if necessary and winning games.

  26. Buccaneers Says:

    Dallas-That’s a weak argument. It’s takes a heck of a lot more then a franchise QB to create a playoff team…….think you need to try harder. I also like to point out that Lovie didn’t put the franchise into the hands of the wrong QB which could cost a franchise another decade or so. Giving the franchise to the wrong QB is something this team has made a mistake on before. I think you know the name.

    Ghost-I can agree with you there. Lovies sideline coaching did not look anything close to playoffs. My point is that he was asked to do a lot more here then coach the sidelines.

  27. LakeLandBuc Says:

    I have said that we should win 11 games this season, if Carolina can win 17 games, , why can’t we win a measly 11 games?

  28. Defense Rules Says:

    Why not 9 or 10 wins? I wonder if Ron Rivera and the Panthers thought they’d finish 15-1 last year. Rivera and Cam Newton arrived in Carolina same year: 2011. Their records since then:

    2011 6-10
    2012 7-9
    2013 12-4
    2014 7-8-1
    2015 15-1

    Their offense certainly improved during those years, but it’s their defense that really made the biggest difference. And it’ll be the same with the Bucs. IF our defense steps up the plate this year and plays up to its’ potential, why not 9 or 10 wins?

  29. Buccfan37 Says:

    Every losing season the Bucs have had I’ve always thought they would get more wins before the season started, homer whatever. I see about half wins but there is plenty of time to fine tune that guess. I agree that a 2-3 start would be a good start.

  30. Buc1987 Says:

    Buccaneers…Lovie slashed 50% of the roster and made a bad team worse.

  31. LakeLandBuc Says:

    Buc1987, I agree 110%

  32. Fsuking Says:

    We can beat the Falcons, Rams, Cardinals and Panthers. Will we? Probably not. But I promise we will beat the Panthers once this year. Not sure if the Cardinals offense will be the same as it was last year but I know we can beat their defense. The Broncos D will crush us unless Donovan Smith gets new cleats that weight less than 15lbs a piece

  33. A-Train Says:

    STOP with the Lovie talk… He is GONE because he sucked as a coach. He only did one good thing and that was to lose enough games for the Bucs to get Jamies.. (was not a Jamies Fan but I was converted)

    Lovie was so good that the only team that wanted him in Ill.. HAHA Joke..
    So you Lovie Lovers go walk the Ill on ESPN the OCHO to see him coach..

  34. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Says:

    I most agree with Dewey Selmon, and see a 7-9 or maybe an 8 and 8 year for us. But, like every Tampa Bay Bucs fan, I hope we go undefeated, and win the Super Bowl. Yes, we have gotten better, but it must be remembered that so have the other teams we will play.

  35. Buc1987 Says:

    Lovie : Hmmm what to do, what to do? Revis or Jenkins? Hmmmm Jenkins it is!

  36. Buc1987 Says:

    Hmmm Joe Montana or Trent Dilfer…

  37. Fsuking Says:

    I can’t wait to see who Lovie blames when his cover 2 gets brutally abused in the Big 10 and he still refuses to adjust it. I can just hear him now, “It’s a process”. “We just need more talent”. “I’m a big dumb idiot”

  38. Dreambig Says:

    ok, off topic. Hockey just pisses me off.

  39. Trubucfan22 Says:

    The big ten is full of run first teams. And the cover 2 is great against the run. So I don’t see his defense scheme struggling too much. More of just his entire coaching style and management skills sucking the rest of the of life out of the football program.

  40. Dusthty Rhothdes Says:

    vegas has the bucs at 7.5 wins and that is spot on 8-8 will be great w this schedule

  41. FLBoyInDallas Says:

    Bovada sports book released their over/unders yesterday and they have the Bucs at 7.5. Personally I think 7-8 wins this year so to me that sounds about right.

  42. FLBoyInDallas Says:

    The homers shout “10 wins” every single year so you can’t listed to people like that. Gotta look at it objectively. Hitting the 9-win mark would be icing on the cake. We’ll see.

  43. Brent bull/buc Says:

    Pressure should be on licht too. This is his 3rd draft. We have improved roster but are still thin at receiver dt and safety.

  44. BigPoppaBuc Says:

    Home opener vs L.A. Should be a good measuring stick for what the season will look like. They dominated our defense with a garbage QB last season and pushed our O-line around a bit. It’ll be week three and if there’s really been a mentality change at OBP it should be noticeable by then.

  45. 1sparkybuc Says:

    The only way Koetter is on the hot seat is if the team implodes. That’s not going to happen. The Glazers should have fired Gruden after 3 or 4 years. They nailed it with Raheem and Lovie, and jumped the gun with Schiano. They will be patient with Koetter. He produced as an OC and brought in the right people to fix a terrible defense. They know that he is well liked and respected by the players. Cursing won’t be a violation in the locker room any more. Koetter and Licht have the franchise on the right course. I’m sure the Glazers can see that.

  46. The Buc Realist Says:

    There are no measuring stick number of wins this year!!! in 2014 7 wins won the NFC South, in 2015 15 wins won the division!!! We want to see the Bucs start, and I mean start to climb the NFC south ladder!!!

  47. Bob in Valrico Says:

    in the first five games we will face 4 top defenses.How Jameis handles the
    defensive pressure will dictate our success.Jameis needs to get a lot of work
    in preseason to prepare.