Is Jason Licht Due For A Slide?

February 24th, 2016

LichtscoutJoe believes in the drafting of Bucs general manager Jason Licht.

The man just belted a grand slam. Team Glazer should erect a statue of him on Himes Avenue for that alone.

But what’s somewhat chilling about Licht’s success last year is the law of averages working against him. This week on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian talked about his career of draft picks. Polian did the math and said only 56 percent of his picks panned out. The remainder were busts.

So 56 percent got the guy in the Hall of Fame. Of course, it helped to have Hall of Fame quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Jim Kelly.

But the greater point is that drafting is very difficult science. Nailing half your picks is good work, especially when you hit on the early-round picks.

Licht has defied a lot of odds. In a league that has trouble developing offensive linemen, Licht has drafted four to date, and three look pretty good, Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet (2nd rounders), and Kevin Pamphile (fifth round).

Again, Joe has faith in Licht. His draft record is strong. Hopefully, Licht can avoid a slide — and the odds.

25 Responses to “Is Jason Licht Due For A Slide?”

  1. Love and Warrick Dunn Says:

    Even with a dip in drafting, still heaps better than Teflon Dom.

  2. The Buc Realist Says:

    Licht has been drafting extremely high!!! When selecting in front of an average of 28 other nfl clubs is a great advantage!!! I will be more impressed when he is drafting and finding players in the bottom 15 of the selection rounds!!!

  3. BuccaneerBonzai Says:

    That’s only if you believe he really did make all the draft picks…which I do not.

  4. Dewey Selmon Says:

    When your first pick is top ten and your second pick is top 30, it is hard to miss. But i have faith in the man to continue good results.

  5. Waterboy Says:

    I don’t think his 2014 draft was all that spectacular. Outside of Evans and Sims everyone else is questionable at best. ASJ still has potential but like Bill Parcels said potential means you haven’t done it yet.

  6. biff barker Says:

    Licht is on record as saying the goal is 5 starters from this draft.

    It sounds lofty yes, but years and years of poor draft day decisions makes it easier to find starters.

  7. ndog Says:

    Look out here comes the negativity. It shows how many of yiu5 are not long time bucs fans with all the early picks we have missed on. Ever hear of Bo Jackson, Vinny T, Gaines Adams, Mark Barron, Kwith McCants, Broderick Thomas . All early picks that were disasters.

  8. biff barker Says:

    Waterboy, agree, the 14 draft was unspectacular. His grade here pivots on if and when ASJ ever flashes.

  9. Tiny Tim Says:

    Some of you are hilarious. It does not matter where you pick. What matters is how you pick and scout. There have been plenty of top ten picks that bust. And you forget all of the trading up and down licht did to draft marpet and alexander. Thats called scouting and identifying talent. The bucs having the number one pick had nothing to do with the drafting of kwon or marpet. Get a clue please.

  10. mike Says:

    i would probably wait a few years before we call last years draft a grand slam. Looks great, but we have drafted plenty of guys that look promising after the 1st year. Kenyatta walker looked good as he started in the SB in year 2. Clayton, Barron, stroughter, Rudd, Sears and more all looked like they would have multiple pro bowls if they were judged after year 1.
    If jason can just hit a home run with the #9 pick and find one more solid starter, the draft would be a home run this year.

  11. Bob in Valrico Says:

    of course he didn’t make all the draft picks He was advised by Robinson ands and all the scouting department.Then he tried to make good decisions with all their imput. for example I heard that imfo on Ali Marpet came from a regional
    scout. A good manager uses all the tools available too him.Licht had full authority over the draft. it is clearly Written in his contract.Now as far as a
    Winston, to keep acrimony on team it would benefit team to have head coaches blessing.
    There is a lot more to evaluating talent than sitting in a basement for a year.
    How does a player play in game situation against quality evaluations would be to players live.Just like Licht and lovie did with Winston.

  12. StPeteBucsFan Says:

    Wow is this a tough crowd. Licht’s draft’s have been brilliant irrespective of where he drafts!!! Kwon was taken in the 4th round…it took a move up to get Marpet who was viewed as a big risk coming out of Div III.

    Then guys slam the 14 draft saying outside of ME and Sims…but that’s the point….we HAVE ME and Sims! And yes ASJ is scheduled to suit up for a 3rd year. And Kevin Pamphile selected in the 5th round started a game for us last year and is considered somebody who may yet compete for a starting position this year or next!

    And then there is #3!!! Yes Fameis turned out great both on and off the field!!!
    He certainly vindicated the beliefs of many here…can you say ’87? But that’s hindsight!!! #3 was NOT the clear top pick and he certainly was NOT the safe pick…that would have been MM. Looking back is easy…JW was the right pick…this time last year the football “experts” were clearly divided!

    50% is considered the norm for success in the draft…this is why Polian at 56% is an HOFer. Licht is off to an incredible start!!!

    It’s a sad day in Tampa Bay when we can’t even appreciate success when we have it. I could beotch and whine about what a boring team our SB winners exciting offense at all…but no..I’m happy that we won the freaking SB by any means necessary!

  13. Tampa Tony Says:

    Better than Dominik’s 5% success rate in drafting

  14. biff barker Says:

    Key to this draft is mining a second DE in the 3rd or 4th round. Maybe a hybrid LB/DE if M. Smith is going to mix looks up front. The going rate for a FA is getting insane.

    We can go FA at WR, CB and Safety as needed.

    I trust Licht and Co. will have another strong showing even without John Robinson.

  15. William Walls Says:

    SPBF, you forgot to add “#DropMicWalkAway”. That was spectacular.

  16. Bob in Valrico Says:

    @st pete buc
    great point,without the wheeling and dealing to get in position to make these picks the draft would not have been so successful.
    and as you pointed out with Marpet,The self professed meathead has the stones to take a chance.

  17. Pick6 Says:

    i hope we execute a couple of lucrative trade-downs. the only way to truly improve your chances of a good haul in a given year is to pick more players

  18. StPeteBucsFan Says:


    That was the Bobby Beathard philosophy and his teams reached quite a few SB’s.

    The draft is a crapshoot so anytime he could leverage a pick into multiple picks he generally jumped on the deal.

  19. MadMax Says:

    Sign DE Mario Williams, draft NT Andrew Billings and DE Kevin Dodd….CB/Return Cyrus Jones….and WR Pharoh Cooper….theres 4 starters from the draft…..add a kicker and theres 5.

  20. biff barker Says:

    If this draft is as deep as the experts profess it to be, teams will be holding on to their picks. I’m all for trading down but doubt we’ll be getting multiple picks.

    Hoping like hell I’m wrong too.

  21. biff barker Says:

    Max, you could make a run for Benjamin and cover two positions. I like your thoughts on the DL though. It’s going to take more than two players to fix it.

  22. MadMax Says:

    Thanks….Benjamin would also be ideal for us. Reason I want Billings so much is the middle needs to be fixed too. Spence is awesome and great depth….but Billings is much more disruptive. And if GMC gets injured again, instant plug in.

  23. mike Says:

    ndog… that was my point. If you remember, we were all very happy w the gains pick after the offseason. He had a big sack in the playoff game vs the gmen and it looked like the probowl was the next stop. Barron had a very good rookie year as did clayton. Im encouraged by last year, but let see what we have in a few years.

  24. BucFanForever Says:

    By my math, Jason Licht has only 53.8% of his picks that have panned out or are highly likely to pan out, which means he can do a bit better next draft, and stay right on the average of the greats.

  25. StPeteBucsFan Says:


    We’d like to see your scorecard. The 50% ratio is for the top three rounds..after that it’s even a bigger crap shoot.

    Who are you saying counts and who are you counting as busts? 6th round stabs for a kick returner are not the same as the first three rounds.