BSPN Publishes Bucs’ Draft Percentages
October 6th, 2026
What would Jason Licht do?
In some circles located on MLK Jr. Drive just east of Himes Avenue in Tampa, this won’t go over well. But Joe has a simple solution:
Don’t knock yourself out of the playoffs on the first Sunday in October.
Over at BSPN, their numberscrunchers published the percentage chances of the Bucs landing the No. 1 overall pick and a top-five pick. Basically, they give the Bucs a coin-flip chance of securing a top-five pick.
BSPN sees the Bucs with the No. 4 overall pick in next spring’s draft.
This isn’t a bad thing. (A terrible thing is losing your first four games of the season.) If the Bucs do get a top-five pick, there are just enough really good college quarterbacks to attract desperate team(s) looking to trade up and draft one.
So the Bucs could have major leverage to take a team to the cleaners. Joe is thinking the Jets, since they have three first-round picks (though Joe doesn’t think the Jets would be dumb enough to trade all three to move up).
Imagine what Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht could do with that haul?
Then again, would the Bucs be hungry enough to pick a quarterback, or Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith? Or how about Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, who Joe guesses won’t get ruined by Todd Bowles? Just make sure he doesn’t act like a dude who has to “go” but can’t find a bathroom.
For those who may want the Bucs to draft a quarterback, Joe hears ya. Rather than a first-round pick, why not USC quarterback Jayden Maiava on Day 2 to purposely push Baker Mayfield and CYA the team?
October 6th, 2026 at 3:25 am
Seattle doesn’t win the Super Bowl without drafting high several years in a row and accumulating studs on rookie deals such as Byron Murphy II, Devon Witherspoon and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It’s time for the Bucs to reload.
October 6th, 2026 at 3:25 am
Bucs have to be in front on Tennessee cuz they won’t take a QB and probably take Jeremiah smith from Ohio. Bucs desperately need a true #1 wr and he’s definitely got juice
October 6th, 2026 at 3:39 am
Bucs will somehow win a game that puts someone like the Titans or Chargers in front of them to make sure that Jeremiah Smith eludes them. Then Licht will probably trade down like he did with Buffalo in 2018 or so for several picks of which half or more will be busts. If someone besides Licht were shopping for the groceries, I would be more confident.
October 6th, 2026 at 4:23 am
Joe, we don’t need a quarterback to push Mayfield.We got one,Jalon Daniels,he’s doing great.
October 6th, 2026 at 4:53 am
Jason, if the Jets offer three first-rounders, answer the phone before they sober up.
October 6th, 2026 at 5:04 am
My hope is that Licht is long gone before he gets to mess up another draft. He can join the fired GM Hall of Fame.
October 6th, 2026 at 5:49 am
I pray to God that Licht isn’t making the pick next year. I am going to sacrifice a live chicken in order to ensure that the Glazers punk him into dumping salary and trading away his underperforming/overpaid draft picks of yore. He will push back when they tell him to make those moves and the Glazer response will be, “Jason, we aren’t asking…”
October 6th, 2026 at 6:06 am
JoeBF says, “Don’t knock yourself out of the playoffs on the first Sunday in October.”
It seems our only hope is the “NFC South Dumpster Fire”. The Falcons and Panthers both seemed to have found their groove @ 2-2, but the Saints seem pretty beat up on defense. It is not looking like we have enough game to win the division. Unless they come together and start winning games, starting this week!
Go Jalon — 0 pics = a win, maybe?
October 6th, 2026 at 6:07 am
[If Licht is as horrible as you claim he is, please explain in great detail how the eff did the Bucs ever win the Super Bowl in 2020 if Licht didn’t know how to draft players. Are you suggesting Joel Glazer drafted that team? It sure as hell wasn’t Mark Dominik. Were those players all the result of Jon Robinson and John Spytek? Who were hired by … JASON LICHT! If anyone has Stockholm Syndrome it’s you. Sober up dude. —Joe]
October 6th, 2026 at 6:28 am
Smith and Hurst on the outside with Egbuka in the slot! I truly believe this would give us the best trio of receivers in the NFL. I can dream if I want to!
October 6th, 2026 at 6:33 am
Do NOT for Bowles.
Let him “keep coachin’ em up.”
0-17 is the goal.
October 6th, 2026 at 6:40 am
I respect Licht and the work he’s done, and blame most of the bad defensive picks on the lack of a DC to develop them, but I’m not sure the Glazers keep him when the Bowles finally gets kicked to the curb. So the real question is what the new people in charge will do with the #2 overall pick.
October 6th, 2026 at 6:47 am
Ring of Honorable Mention GM has a bad track record of second round picks
October 6th, 2026 at 6:53 am
So let’s celebrate about being so bad we can get a high draft pick? Wonderful.
October 6th, 2026 at 6:55 am
@ Joe – sure Jason Licht built a solid roster in 2019 (that still only won 7 games the season before Brady came to town).
THAT WAS SEVEN YEARS AGO JOE!!!!
What has Licht done since?
Pathetic my guy…
October 6th, 2026 at 6:58 am
Those are draft probabilities. Not percentages, whatever those are.
October 6th, 2026 at 7:02 am
Also – most of the best players on that team were free agents NOT JL’s draft picks.
Also – take a look at your favorite GM’s 2nd round draft picks… totally gross and incompetent IMO…