BSPN: Bucs Aren’t Bad Enough To Earn No. 1 Overall Pick In 2027 Draft
September 29th, 2026
Draft prep.
Joe guesses (?) this is a good thing?
With the Bucs dropping to 0-3, perhaps with the worst offense in football, losing their $165 Million Dollar Man at quarterback for at least three weeks, losing a promising, starting receiver for maybe two months, more bad things must happen to the team if they are to earn the franchise’s first No. 1 overall pick since 2014 (for the 2015 draft).
BSPN had a bot/AI thing run the numbers on which team will end up with the No. 1 pick. And it’s unlikely to be the Bucs.
This “FPI rating” has another Florida team landing the first pick. That would be Miami with a 45 percent chance of being on the clock when the 2026 season ends.
Others on the list are:
No. 2: Tennessee
No. 3: Bucs
The Bucs, per BSPN, have an 8 percent chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick. It also has the Bucs with almost a 50/50 shot of a top-five pick (48 percent).
If the Bucs end up with the No. 5 pick, would Jeremiah Smith or Trinidad Chambliss still be on the board?
No football player has ever been in more hell than No. 0 on this play. pic.twitter.com/BWUcYPttSG
— Brandon Walker (@BFW) September 26, 2026
September 29th, 2026 at 9:03 am
Say that to loud. Todd will take that as a challenge lol.
September 29th, 2026 at 9:04 am
Give us a couple more weeks, we got this!
September 29th, 2026 at 9:08 am
The last time Licht had the first overall pick he chose Winston to be the franchise QB.
That was an absolute dumpster fire and a blueprint on how to waste the first pick.
He’s hit on a few draft picks and a few free agents. But that’s all he’s really accomplished.
TB12 made him look smart but his record before and since are what he truly is.
A carnival barker and a complete fraud. He needs to leave with Bowels.
September 29th, 2026 at 9:09 am
Bowles will give us one last FU and finish his typical 8-9. It should get him fired but itll also give us a middle of the pack pick LOL
September 29th, 2026 at 9:12 am
Maybe I’m just out of date and don’t understand the “modern game”, but if you play, you play to win. Every season, every game, every play. Just the word “tank” makes my skin crawl.
September 29th, 2026 at 9:19 am
It’s NFL
PAYDAY
no playoffs
Only PAYDAYS
September 29th, 2026 at 9:21 am
After 0-4 – Every win is a loss…
Let the rebuild begin!
Go Bucs!
September 29th, 2026 at 9:22 am
It’s way too early to think about that just yet. The Raiders were a dumpster fire last year and won the first overall pick. They haven’t even played that kid yet and still they’re 3-0. Just the improvement on coaching has been enough to transform that team.
September 29th, 2026 at 9:22 am
“If the Bucs end up with the No. 5 pick, would Jeremiah Smith or Trinidad Chambliss still be on the board?”
I’d be more interested in Darian Mensah tbh at least at this point, but still a big fan of Jayden Maiava and a few others. No.5 pick we’d have a good amount of options, but nailing down which position to actually draft or to use that pick as a ransom for more picks would probably be on the table.
September 29th, 2026 at 9:26 am
@ warrin
Did you really believe we would be talking about the draft after week 3?
LOL!
Am I still considered a “troll” to you?
JK – I really don’t care bud…
September 29th, 2026 at 9:27 am
Can you imagine the trade value 2027 Bucs HC Jon Gruden could have with the number 1 overall pick. Or we could draft another LT, Pass rusher, top cornerback, WR Jeremiah Smith. We desperately need offensive line help in next year’s draft. Barton is a bust at center, Mauch is not the same player he was prior to injury. Maybe Bucs move Bredeson to center and Barton to guard, like the bucs did with the great Ali Marpet back in the day. Tristan Wirfs is not the same dominant player he was prior to the mysterious/how did he get that injury in the offseason of 2025? Didn’t he have to go overseas to get surgery because he didn’t like the American doctor’s opinion on it. Whatever happened has resulted in possibly Wirfs not ever being the same dominant player again. Either Way Bucs need to get Gruden in here and draft Offensive line in 2027.
September 29th, 2026 at 9:28 am
I think we have a 50% chance at the #1 pick.
This is a really bad team.
I predicted 5-12, back in March.
If Mayfield were healthy- he would single handedly win that many games.
But this line will keep him injured, no matter how many times he tries to come back.
Jaylon Daniels NFL stats
0-3. I sack, 1 interception.
Inspiring.
It’s gonna be a long Season
September 29th, 2026 at 9:28 am
Bucs have a great chance to have the worst record in the NFL. The Bucs defense stinks, the offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. TE is butterfingers, Bucs have decent depth at WR but do not have a #1 receiver and now the Bucs starting QB is out the next three weeks. I would be very surprised if the Buc win a game in the next three weeks.
September 29th, 2026 at 9:29 am
I love Chambliss
September 29th, 2026 at 9:30 am
@Maureen
I never regarded you as a troll because you’re not good at it
September 29th, 2026 at 9:30 am
We are definitely bad enough for the #1 pic !!!!!!
Offense is an utter crapshow and we have worst coaching staff in the league headed up by Bowles, the DCW (dead coach walking).
September 29th, 2026 at 9:35 am
Bucs will finish just ahead of being able to pick the next quarterback
This is what happens when a major organization doesn’t have a SINGLE decision maker!
Crazy dynamics inside the ownership group leaving everyone below them second guessing themselves
September 29th, 2026 at 9:36 am
Chambliss got exposed vs UF!!!!!….he has the same issue as Baker…too small and cant see over his Oline….that kid screams Kyler Murray 2.0….hard pass!!!!
best option with a top 5 pick would be to trade down and get as many picks as you can to fill this roster with talent…OL, DL, LB, S, CB, RB
GO BUCS!!!!
September 29th, 2026 at 9:37 am
@Captain Tim
Brining up JD’s stats when his only experience is being down 7 with 28 seconds to go snd no timeouts is pathetic. Let’s see the kid play. Fortunately for him, Baker didn’t set a very high bar for him to match this season
September 29th, 2026 at 9:39 am
Joe … ‘With the Bucs dropping to 0-3, perhaps with the worst offense in football, losing their $165 Million Dollar Man at quarterback for at least three weeks … ‘
You’ve been VERY consistent Joe in adding the descriptor ‘Kit-Kat-Eating’ in front of Todd Bowles name in most articles you’ve written. A bit ‘adverse'(?) but what the heck.
Baker Mayfield OTOH gets the descriptor ‘$165 Million Dollar Man’ in front of his name. Certainly very positive, especially considering that was a monstrous mistake. Would you consider changing it to something like ‘Flim Flam Man’ or at least something more descriptive of his play since signing his new contract. I checked already BTW, and ‘Dancing Bear’ is taken, so can’t use that.
The $165 million man won’t stick because the Bucs aren’t on the hook for a lot of it, if they choose to move on. Bowles, however, hasn’t quit Kit-Kats to Joe’s knowledge. –Joe
September 29th, 2026 at 9:39 am
Marine Buc Says:
Did you really believe we would be talking about the draft after week 3?
_ _ _ _ _
WOW, we didn’t even make it to October.
Considering average expectations, I don’t remember a worse beginning of a season. All hopium up in smoke
September 29th, 2026 at 9:40 am
doolnutts Says:
September 29th, 2026 at 9:09 am
Bowles will give us one last FU and finish his typical 8-9. It should get him fired but itll also give us a middle of the pack pick LOL
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Exactly!!!!!
i could see us being 2-10 at the start of DEC and Baker and Bowles will win the last 4 games and claim things are turning around knocking us from #4 overall pick to #11 lol…
GO BUCS!!!!
September 29th, 2026 at 9:47 am
If Baker doesn’t turn things around… a man can DREAM 😂
My 2027 Bucs blueprint:
– Take Jeremiah Smith at No. 1.
– Trade up from 33 to 32 for QB Drew Mestemaker, giving him a year to develop behind Baker.
– Add Trey’Dez Green, Kewan Lacy, Chris Cole and Logan Jones.
Then in 2028, move on from Baker and hand the offense to Mestemaker.
Now imagine Mestemaker with Smith, Egbuka, McMillan, Hurst and Green…
**And we haven’t even added a single piece from the 2028 draft yet. 👀**
That’s where this gets REALLY fun.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:01 am
There are no “bowles” in “team”.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:01 am
If we dont win a game that Jalon starts and go 0-7, and that point it’s time to tank for the #1 spot whether the team is that bad or not.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:03 am
@ warrin
What is your win/loss expectation now?
You thought my 7-10 was “crazy”.
You were drinking the Baker kool-aid.
You were all sad about ME13 leaving (he is injured already BTW).
Keep going brother.
What else you got?
September 29th, 2026 at 10:09 am
They are that bad because they play with no drive, discipline or effort by too many supposedly talented players. Serial loafing leads to awful football for anyone to have to watch.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:11 am
Right, because the #1 pick in 2027’s draft will definitely improve the team! (sarcasm!)
September 29th, 2026 at 10:16 am
the latest power rankings are hilarious – Licht would still screw up this team up with fifteen first-round picks next year – and Bowles would still screw up this team if an All-Pro was brought in for every position – pathetic
September 29th, 2026 at 10:18 am
People who blame Licht for picking Winston should be banned from life. The Bucs needed a QB, they weren’t going to pass on drafting one. Winston and Marriota were the consensus #1 & 2 prospects. And in hindsight it didn’t matter which one they chose because neither of them worked out.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:26 am
Here hold my beer…..
September 29th, 2026 at 10:27 am
@Marine,
I will answer, Lord no I never thought we would be having draft talk this early in the season.
Let’s play the hypothetical game. Season is a train wreck and we end up with pick 3-5. My biggest fear isn’t that we draft a qb. My biggest fear is we talk ourselves into a qb for all the wrong reasons. “Don’t expect to be here again” , “If you don’t have a guy you need to get one” that kind of stuff. These are the reasons for an Anthony Richardson or JJ McCarthy.
Now, if in this hypothetical world you can get someone who truly is special you HAVE to do it. Yes I am a Baker fan, but as much of a fan as I am I can see he is limited and can’t overcome a bad situation such as our coaching. Where I disagree with Baker’s detractors is I don’t think he needs perfect, but he needs more support than a true top level qb.
But yes, if this team has a pick that gives them a chance at someone they believe in with their whole being, they have to pull the trigger. It will be a new HC staff, so there are no ties to bind them. And before anyone complains about Baker’s contract, don’t stress it. It’s short and in a few months will be below market value.
But if there is a chance that pick gets you a qb you only “think” is a guy, or one they call a long term project then pass and either get the haul to trade down or get as guaranteed an elite player as you can.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:30 am
I thought Winston was really Lovie’s call.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:35 am
Josh-2027 blueprint before all that other stuff!
“Competent Coaching, GM, ownership” all that other stuff doesn’t matter if u don’t have those 3.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:43 am
Yall trust Licht with another #1 pick?? Lol.. another one.. thats should be your first sign hes not the guy
September 29th, 2026 at 10:45 am
Jason Licht gets way too much disrespect: Seriously what GM hits on EVERY SINGLE PICK
He built a Super Bowl roster that lured Brady to Tampa Bay. Has drafted pro-bowlers like Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Chris Godwin. Given his track record, letting him actually pick and hire the next head coach on his terms is earned. He didn’t get to choose Bowles….
The Dream Offense (Klint Kubiak): If you loved Liam Coen’s scheme(I did), Kubiak is the ultimate target. He runs that same elite Shanahan/Kubiak-style West Coast offense that makes play-action easy for QBs and elevates the run game.
The Dream Defense (DeMeco Ryans): If Houston parts ways with Ryans, bringing him in as DC is the ultimate home run. You pair a young offensive head coach with an elite, proven, player-favorite defensive mastermind to handle that side of the ball completely.
Licht steering the ship, a sharp young offensive HC at the helm, and a heavy-hitter like Ryans fixing the defense is about as good a rebuild blueprint as you could ask for.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:45 am
All I know is
1 game out of 1st.
Starting a new qb,that should make the trolls very happy!
The defense under Bowles is playing very well!
The mighty Rams and McVay are human after all…
Kirk Cousins and the Raiders are in 1st place with him leading in td passes lol!!
I love football!
Goooo Bucs! Any giving sunday!
September 29th, 2026 at 10:51 am
@Maureen
“What is your win/loss expectation now?”
No clue, I’ve seen some wild sh*t in my day.
“You thought my 7-10 was “crazy”.”
No I think you getting your inner Howard Stern schtick off(pause) on this site is crazy in a funny, but really not all that funny kind of way.
“You were drinking the Baker kool-aid.”
Call an optometrist and consult whomever taught you to read.
“You were all sad about ME13 leaving (he is injured already BTW).”
No I wasn’t sad, but I did refute your claim that we “saved” his dead money hit, and explained to you why you cannot “save” $-13M. Also, him being injured doesn’t mean we don’t miss his presence and how it effected the teams ability to move the ball. Mike has as many reception TDs on 16 targets(9 of these went for 1st downs btw) by himself as our whole team has on 95 collective targets, so there’s that.
Keep up the good work
September 29th, 2026 at 11:03 am
I forgot he’s in Vegas now 😭😭😭 We’re just screwed… Nate Scheelhaase and Grant Udinski are out there, but yeah, I don’t like them nearly as much as Coen or Kubiak. Press Taylor, the guy with the Bears, coached under Coen last year and is now learning under Ben Johnson, but he doesn’t call plays. Unfortunately, I really don’t see an answer. Most teams currently have offensive-minded head coaches (teams that are good) and call the plays. Eric Bieniemy maybe??? I don’t know, though. I can’t believe I forgot Kubiak was snatched up by Brady and Spytek—it’s like they stole all the thunder from the Bucs.
September 29th, 2026 at 11:20 am
Jason LIcht is 93-107
Tom Brady wanted San Fran and they declined. We hit the Brady lottery!
Brady brought in AB, ,Lenny and Gronk. WInfield stinks these days. Much is terrible and so is Barton. No true d line stars except Vea.
Licht is mid at best. He’d be selling insurance if it wasn’t for Brady.
Jason Licht MUST BE FIRED with Todd.
September 29th, 2026 at 11:25 am
I did some research and Declan Doyle might be the Bucs only hope if Tampa Bay finally let’s go of Todd Bowles. At just 30 years old, he’s already built a reputation as a Detail-obsessed football junkie who learned under Sean Payton and proved his worth making sharp halftime adjustments in Chicago before taking over the Ravens’ offense this year.
In a league completely dominated by young, hyper-adaptable play-callers, handing the keys to an aggressive young mind like Doyle would give Tampa Bay the modern, pre-snap-heavy blueprint they desperately need to maximize their quarterback and spark a long-term turnaround.
Plus how fun would it be to say OH Doyle RULES!! LMAO 🤣 🤣 🤣
September 29th, 2026 at 11:37 am
@ JustVisiting… agreed, the word “tank” is something to puke over. 50 years of being a Bucs fan, I never tanked on them… well, almost last year.
September 29th, 2026 at 12:04 pm
I believe the quality of our individual players on offense is far above average. Their collective play is below terrible. Drafting more good players will not solve this problem. I hate to say this but, we are only one game behind in our division. Bruce needs to allow the root cause to be fixed before the next game. Bruce was kept around because he is an”offensive genius” right? So, what the hell has he been doing?? Todd’s kit kat eating defence looks good, other than one big play our special teams looks good enough. To me Bruce has not been adding any value to the team in his area of expertise. I don’t believe Todd is or has been calling the shots on offense. I’m hoping behind closed doors he is voicing his displeasure loudly. Hey Joe, Kit kats are now my favorite candy bar. Again Joe, what is Bruce doing to help solve the problem? Is he the obstacle to correcting the problem? I think it’s is a discussion worth having.
September 29th, 2026 at 12:05 pm
First things first. You need to scrap Bowles and replace Robinson.
September 29th, 2026 at 12:06 pm
Oh,and cosmo you can say that for every GM, WTF dude
September 29th, 2026 at 12:22 pm
The defense looks good? Against Kyler Murray slow down this team is a dumpster fire no point on firing anyone cuz no one is coming to save the bucs this season let it just play out like they should have done baker and vea
September 29th, 2026 at 12:50 pm
Are you sure about that BSPN?
ARE YOU REAL SURE with our back up / undrafted QB….
Ok… who’s worse than NO wins to speak of? That goes back to last season and counting BTW!….
September 29th, 2026 at 1:31 pm
Nick Wright claims Bucs still have best chance of any of the 0-3 teams to make playoffs ,,,’we are not dead yet and I’m counting on JD to get us either 2-1 or 1-2 the next three weeks