Bucs Offense Is The Pits With Stat Nerds; Second-Worst Drop In NFL
September 29th, 2026
Bucs’ geeky numbers are bad.
Joe is not anti-stats, but within reason.
Joe was taught to be suspicious of stats, whether it was the famous cry of noted Washington Post columnist Norman Chad (“Stats, damn stats and USA Today.”) or a teacher Joe had in high school who often said anyone can twist numbers to prove whatever point they want to make.
So when Joe sees stat nerds parrot something called “EPA” — and it has zero to do with the environment — Joe quickly dismisses the stat because it uses the word “expected.”
To which Joe always asks, “Whose expectations?”
(Another one is “adjusted.” Nah, nah, nah. “Adjusted” is playing games with numbers. Why are you adjusting numbers? What are you covering up? See Joe’s high school teacher reference above.)
But Joe knows so many stat guys push “EPA” as if it is Gospel. Well, consider Joe a sinner.
This stat is used so much, maybe these guys are onto something?? If so, this stat demonstrates just how terribly Bucs offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has wrecked the Bucs’ offense.
Only one team has had a bigger dropoff in EPA than the Bucs. And, as Mike Sando of The Athletic points out, no team has a worse EPA.
So take that for what it’s worth. Joe is sure some will find this interesting. The main number Joe is worried about growing is 0-3. No one expected that.
Is it too late to trade for Josh Grizzard?
September 29th, 2026 at 7:15 am
Of which Mayfield’s EPA is -0.226 (-0.3 when passing). Meanwhile, Purdy has the highest EPA (0.52) in the league. Are we still debating why Evans left? As an aging WR tired of treadingwater, would you rather hang on to a boulder or take hold of a bouy?
September 29th, 2026 at 7:16 am
Yesterday Todd cited 3 reasons why the Bucs’ offense was not thriving, including offensive line struggles. All three pointed at Baker. Holding the ball, missing open receivers and another one that I forgot. He didn’t even mention abandoning the pocket before real pressure startsand ducking and cowering, not keeping his head downfield while escaping.
I’m not saying he’s a finished product but I have a feeling JD will bring some calm and a W to the offense. I think Baker is still traumatizad and hasn’t gotten over last seasons’ beatings he took.
September 29th, 2026 at 7:28 am
Right. An undrafted QB will lead the Bucs turn around and things will be calm. Check your coffee.
September 29th, 2026 at 7:28 am
This statistic seems ludicrous because there are two many assumptions being made in its formula and way to many variables that are unmeasurable. It seems to rely heavily on previous years in an ever changing game and also that the team will have the same mindset with regard to aggressive versus conservative offensive style. Overall, it just seems to be a stat created to explain the struggles of some teams when we can all simply watch and see the problems.
September 29th, 2026 at 7:35 am
Joe Bob Pigskin,
It’s not what people are drinking….rather, everyone loves the backup QB when they are placing the blame on the starter. The cruel thing about this is that Daniels looked really poised in a few brief appearances against scrubs, although those same fans seem to ignore the last preseason game when the offense was pretty anemic at his helm. They truly want to believe that we have stumbled upon a lot of gold. Don’t we all. Unfortunately, they will likely see what an undrafted free agent rookie looks like against scheming defenses playing for real. I am sure it will not get ugly though because the offense will give him a very short rope to keep him from big mistakes. Expect to see the Bucs play real conservative and try to win with the defense…which they hope will keep things going from last week.
September 29th, 2026 at 7:35 am
Are the Bucs a disappointment? – yes.
Is the Buc’s offense the worst in the NFL? – yes.
Is our head coach extremely lackluster? – yes.
Is our QB an overpaid wannabe fullback? – yes.
Is this franchise a dumpster fire? – yes.
Did I forget where I was going with this post? – yes.
Things are bad folks but trust me when I say this – It can and probably will get worse…
Go Bucs!
September 29th, 2026 at 7:42 am
All three pointed at Baker. Holding the ball, missing open receivers and another one that I forgot.
September 29th, 2026 at 7:42 am
^^Penalties
September 29th, 2026 at 7:51 am
The Vikings held the Bears to three points then the Bears turn around and crush the Eagles with a backup Quarterback. Crazy start to the NFL season. I’d like to see the Bucs have similar success because they won’t see a defense like that for a while
September 29th, 2026 at 8:16 am
Last night was a great display of “coaching” from Ben. Get ur back up QB in rhythm early with easy throws, run the ball, and it was curtains from there. We haven’t had “coaching” like that around here since Mr. Coen left. I am really starting to shift the blame for this s h i t show from Bowels to ownership, this is as bad as the Perkins/Williamson/Culverhouse days. WTF were these owners thinking?
September 29th, 2026 at 8:21 am
I believe we will see an improved offense with Daniels at the helm for several reasons.
The addition of multiple RPO plays that will create positive yards on first and second down minimizing third and long.
Holding penalties will be reduced by more running plays-statistical fact.
More strict adherence to 3 step drop and 2.5 second or less throw time.
Jalon will do fine and we WILL win some games starting Sunday.
September 29th, 2026 at 8:22 am
Interesting chart if only for the fact that 3 out of the first 4 teams are traditionally power houses. Also interesting is that the Falcons (without Zac) made the top 5.
September 29th, 2026 at 8:23 am
Too many stats. We could have won all three games. Fumbles in one, rain in 2_ and punt return for td in 3. Bring in Jimmy Garrapolo.
September 29th, 2026 at 8:27 am
Army was,always so positive. My division was Pattons,hell on wheels. Marines,are so negative Buc boy. We will turn this around. Long season in a weak division. Go back to Parris island curl up in a ball and give up Marine Buc. Patton never gave up.
September 29th, 2026 at 8:39 am
Marky mark: Navy doesn’t really translate to football like the infantry/Marines…it’s all about the ships. Maybe bobsled?
September 29th, 2026 at 8:42 am
The team will rally around JD10 and he’ll produce more Ws than baker this season….
GO BUCS!!!!!
September 29th, 2026 at 8:48 am
We already knew Bowles is terrible..and needs to be fired, but shockingly the defense kept us in the game.
Zac Robinson on the other hand.. has made over offense worse. The oline went from looking top 5, to dead last.. Wirfs doesn’t even look good at times. I mean at least Bucky looks good this season so far. Only positive from the offense.
September 29th, 2026 at 8:50 am
Something that hasn’t been acknowledged in discussion is not just that Baker was missing his reads, the receivers, and scrambling too quickly, but the impact that has on the O-Line.
Goes back to something everyone noticed when we got Tom. All of a sudden, our line was one of the best in the league, and the penalty (*cough* holding rate) went way down. The lineman fully admitted it was easier to hold your blocks, or adjust your blocks when Tom was manipulating the pocket, not trying to escape it.
As angry as we get at the line for all of the holding penalties, you have to consider what is a blocker supposed to do when he’s fighting as hard as possible to stop a 300lb man from getting past him and then the QB scrambles the opposite direction and all of a sudden that same guy is now trying to beat you to the other side.
This was the effect of going from Jameis scrambling “make plays” to Tom moving around in the pocket to make the throw.
September 29th, 2026 at 8:51 am
@ Marky Mark
Thanks for your service.
My prediction since mid-summer has been 7-10.
If the Bucs go 0-4 – they are better off tanking the season.
Maybe that is why they left Bowles in place?
Every win after 0-4 is a loss for the future rebuilding of this dumpster fire of a franchise.
September 29th, 2026 at 8:57 am
Honestly, this whole team is a bloody mess. I don’t really care about that “expected” angle of the dangle crap. We know it’s always gonna be equal to the mass of the azz anyway. Good teams find ways to win. Bad teams find ways to lose. I don’t care about anything else. I have noted that people keep telling me that the defense has gotten a little better. To those people I will point out that we were ten points ahead in the third quarter of game two. That defense played just exactly well enough to put us down by seven late in the game. Would you say that’s statistically better than last year? Not by my math. The talking heads can take all that number salad and stick it where the sun don’t shine. As far as Jaylon Daniels is concerned: how much worse could he possibly make things?
September 29th, 2026 at 9:03 am
There’s only one stat that matters. Wins. Currently we are without one of those.
But according to our resident defensive guru and HC mastermind, 0-3 equals one game out of first.
That mentality has ruined this franchise. Settling for being top of the turd pile is not a recipe for success.
3-11 in our last 14 games. 1-7 in our last 8. Will 1-10 in our last 11 be enough to fire a putrid HC\DC????
September 29th, 2026 at 9:45 am
Scott, your evaluation of the QB situation is guarded and well founded, but I don’t have that faint hope that conservative playing calling and a strong defense will give us a real opportunity. We can only hope.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:04 am
I don’t understand some of you. You want to blame everything on Baker. He’s the sole reason why this team had their epic collapse last year and are 0-3 this season? What a bunch a BS. This is a complete ORGANIZATIONAL effort that starts ALL the way at the top with The Glazers and Jason Licht. It is 100% on them for:
1) Keeping Todd Bowles – should have been fired after playoff loss to WASH in 2024
2) Extending players like ZM, Baker, Goedeke, etc. Yes – Baker has been horrible since the bye week last season.
3) Keeping Todd Bowles
4) How many failed draft picks and FA signings?
5) Did I mention keeping Todd Bowles
6) No pass rush – poor scheme defensively – I will say the defense showed a pulse against the Vikings but it’s the same defense that couldnt get off the field against the Browns.
7) Zack Robinson
8) What the hell happened to our offensive line?
9) Special teams still stinks
10) Lastly – while our players say the right things about how much they love Todd Bowles, they sure don’t show it on the field. We have been hearing the same BS for how many games now dating back to last season? There is a serious culture problem and I think it starts with Glazers and JL – everyone is down right delusional. This is not a good team. This is not a talented team. This is not a well coached team. Because JL tells you it is you believe that non-sense? 2-10 ppl over the last 12 games!
And now we turn to an UFA rookie. The real carnage is going to start now. It’s one thing if Daniels were to have a good support system… you know, a solid OL and run game… good coaching to scheme things easier for him. The Bucs are going to ruin this kid before he ever has a chance. Sure would be nice to turn to a Case Keenum, Marcus Mariota or a competent backup.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:20 am
What gives you any kind of hope that Daniels will have the support to do well on Sunday? By support I mean a solid OL, run game and competent game plan? Remember – this is a todd bowles coached team. And you are asking the defense to show a heart beat two weeks in a row. While GB is not playing well at all, Jordan Love is a far better QB than Kyler Murray.
September 29th, 2026 at 10:25 am
Curious what that stat is for the Bucs last year but after the bye week.