The Bengals Offense And 28 Points
September 11th, 2026
Slowing down Joe Burrow.
For Joe, the key is 28 points.
Or, more importantly, can the Bucs hold the explosive Bengals offense to under 28 points?
Why does Joe use under-28 points as the bar? Well, former handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp had a very interesting defensive stat and how it affects quarterbacks.
There is only one quarterback in the NFL with a winning record when his defense allows 28 or more points. There is also only one quarterback who has a .500 record when his defense gives up 28 points.
The lone winning quarterback is Josh Allen. The quarterback who has a .500 record when his defense allows 28 points is Jalen Hurts.
Every other quarterback in the NFL has a losing record when their defenses allow 28 points. Baker Mayfield is 1-12 in games when his defense coughs up 28 points.
Slowing down Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense is easier said than done.
“Big challenge, huge challenge,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said this week. “I mean, those guys have been together for a long time in that offense.
“[Joe] Burrow and [Ja’Marr] Chase have been together since college, so they’ve been doing it for a long time. [They are] very precise, know each other very well – not just those two, but [Tee] Higgins and the rest of the guys as well, [Chase] Brown, the rest of the team, very good chemistry there, very good chemistry there. We’ve just got to line up and be very sound at what we do, and we’ve got to make plays.”
Good luck.
Last year, the Bucs’ defense was the worst in Todd Bowles’ regime, averaging 24 points allowed. There have been massive changes to the defense, specifically the front-seven.
The front-seven is not what Joe is worried about with the Bucs’ defense. It’s the Bucs’ corners facing probably the best one-two punch in the NFL, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
If the Bengals ring up 28 points, it is unlikely the Bucs can win, based on history.
team win % by QB when defense allows 28+ points:
0.538 – Josh Allen (7-6)
0.500 – Jalen Hurts (7-7)
0.429 – Patrick Mahomes (3-4)
0.360 – Jared Goff (9-16)
0.333 – Davis Mills (2-4)
0.333 – Brock Purdy (3-6)
0.308 – Lamar Jackson (4-9)
0.286 – Sam Darnold (2-5)
0.286 – Kirk…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 28, 2026
September 11th, 2026 at 5:01 am
Speaking of defense, there was no 3 and 28 conversions for the Rams last night. Now you know why Evans left Joe. He’s chasing a Ring. Kyle Shanahan, Todd Bowles. You choose.
September 11th, 2026 at 5:11 am
I suspect Hodad is correct on his reasoning but the Rams looked horrible last night. SF had the epitome of a dink dunk offense. Let’s see what Todd can do with all his new toys on defense.
September 11th, 2026 at 5:43 am
Get to Burrow, sacks not just pressures… GAME OVER, if we don’t… We’ll be in for a long game. D-Line needs to swarm! LFG
September 11th, 2026 at 6:20 am
They are gonna have burrow running for his life – i think bucky is gonna have a big game as well
September 11th, 2026 at 6:37 am
Evans left because he no longer held head billing (younger guys stepping up and taking touches away). It’s interesting how an over inflated ego affects an individual.
September 11th, 2026 at 6:40 am
burrow is so damn good…as that saying goes…
“you can only hope to contain him”
September 11th, 2026 at 6:51 am
There’s been a tremendous amount of conversation here about how terrific the Bucs will be this year. I hope it’s true, but I don’t expect immediate miracles.
September 11th, 2026 at 7:32 am
Is Joe Burrow better than Kirk Cousins? Yes? Bowles had no answers whatsoever for Cousins the last 2 years. Things to look for:
Bain/Diaby in coverage
ILB’s trying to cover guys they can’t cover
CB’s 10 yards off the LOS
These were a few signs of a failing defense the last few years. We’ll see if Bowles has the capability of adjusting.
September 11th, 2026 at 7:34 am
28? I’ll be surprised if bowles can hold burrow to 48 or less. I’m taking the bengals and the over.
Bowles race to 11 losses starts Sunday.
September 11th, 2026 at 7:37 am
One more key number. 7 to 10 ?
How much yds off the Dbs will be when covering Higgins and Chase.
No matter how much better the pass rush will be it doesnt matter if Burrow can throw in 2 seconds because the WRs will be open from the get go.
Look at all the top Ds last season. Look at the Seahawks, Pats, 49ers from the first couple of games. Look how tight is the coverage most of the time.
Coach Bowles plays a Defense that almost like 90% of the times the coverage is soft and the Dbs are 10 yds off. You will not going to contest a lot of catches like that.
Why you think all QBs (starters, backups, rookies) have great passing games against us more often than not. Its only because the lack of consistent pass rush? Or its also because the receivers are akways open with no defender 3 yds close to them.
Go Bucs
September 11th, 2026 at 7:45 am
We need to see if the Bengals offensive line has improved. If they play the way they did in preseason Burrows might not make it through the game. The Bucs won’t be able to completely shut them down, but they can dink and dunk their way to victory by playing keep away.
September 11th, 2026 at 7:52 am
after that collapse last year hard to believe they can beat those guys on the road but the o line is healthy and the defense is way different, go bucs!
September 11th, 2026 at 7:58 am
I dont know about 28 points. The Bengals offensive line is going to have to prove they can block first
September 11th, 2026 at 7:59 am
Last year’s opening game, Browns held Bengals’ Chase Brown to 43 yards on 21 carries and Burrow was sacked 3 times as Bengals offense was held to 17 points.
Bengals won the game 17-16 as Browns’ QB Joe Flacco was intercepted twice .
So there is the formula- stop the run, pressure Burrow and don’t make turnovers or stupid penalties.
September 11th, 2026 at 8:06 am
Good thing for us is that the Cincy defense is looking to bounce back from a season they finished 29th in points allowed giving up 28.9 ppg last year. Bengals’ Burrow-less offense averaged 24.4 ppg last year.
Maybe our offense, with all their weapons and our OL can actually ring the 28 point bell first and get a quick start on improving our own 22.4 ppg output from last season.
We’ll see, but calling the game a wash if the defense allows 28 points, is kind of an admission that you’ve got no confidence in our offenses ability to match our outscore those totals. Though recent history would kind of support you, we scored 234 of our 380 points off TDs last year, which averages out to about 13.7 points of TDs/2 TDs per game offensively. Again, we’ll see.
September 11th, 2026 at 8:10 am
Interesting enough… Burrow is on that list and only won once. So if our offense can put up 28 pts we should win lol
September 11th, 2026 at 8:26 am
WBL. Burrow played 8 games last year. The Bengals were 5-3 in those games. Burrow sat out 9 games last year. The Bengals were 1-8 in those games. The Bengals scored 27 ppg with Burrow. They scored 22 ppg without Burrow.
September 11th, 2026 at 8:38 am
The Corners best friends are the defensive linemen applying maximum pressure against Joe Burrow and shutting down the 🏃♂️ running game. We are about to see if Todd Bowles and his defensive changes in personnel and strategy 🤔 will rule the day or not. Thr Bucs have had lots of time to prepare for the Bengals. And Baker has said the Bucs are going to surprise a lot teams.
We are about to find out the truth.
September 11th, 2026 at 8:43 am
I almost broke a finger scrolling down that list of QB’s to finally find Mr Mid QB Baker Mayfield.
1-12, boy does that look familiar. Cousins beats Mayfield at everything!!!
Good thing we gave him $55 million a year! Nothing gets the blood pumping like expensive interceptions and losses.
Burrow will show you what a real franchise QB looks like. 55-10
September 11th, 2026 at 8:46 am
The offense needs to do it’s part but running the ball and sustaining drives. Chew up the clock and keep the Bengals offense off the field. That’s the easiest way to slow them down and limit their possessions. We can’t punt more than 4 times this game. That’s the key.
September 11th, 2026 at 8:50 am
Baker needs to be on his game. Can’t have 3 and outs. Can’t miss open WRs and absolutely can’t have turnovers.
People need to realize with this many rookies on defense, it’ll take some time. Can’t leave the defense out on the field all day.
It starts with running the ball and sustaining drives.
Sure, the defense needs to get some stops, but you absolutely can’t keep putting them on the field against that offense and expect great things.
September 11th, 2026 at 8:53 am
Usually at the beginning of the season defenses are ahead of the offenses, which require more timing. It will be inteersting to see. Unfortunately from last year I have no faith in McColumn and I think he is going to be picked on early and often. I think Cinn is going to score a lot of points. I think yes the Bucs need to score 30 in this game to win. I don’t know if the offense is up to that this early. We will see
September 11th, 2026 at 8:54 am
“Can the Bucs hold the Bungles under 28 points?”
With our DC, I’m gonna go with “no” until proven otherwise.
September 11th, 2026 at 8:56 am
Interesting statistic. Can’t play scared. Need to come out swinging and get tuddy on first drive.
September 11th, 2026 at 8:57 am
Hmmmn. This would be some irony:
Bucs lose to the Bengals now…then face them in the Superbowl with a chip on their shoulder.
Bengals would be the favorite to win in that situation…and the Bucs would be underrated.
This is a tough first game…but…I belive our defense will be determined to stop the Bengals. And our offense can score big points too.
I want to see how our special teams do.
September 11th, 2026 at 9:05 am
Fanofdabucs Says:
“People need to realize with this many rookies on defense, it’ll take some time.”
I agree that you are 99% right…but…I think their first game will be different.. They’ll have some nerves in the first quarter…and that could lead to the Bengals scoring (maybe). But after that, the defense will be determined to prove themselves in this game.
On defense, I expect Scott Garnes, and Bain to show up big at key moments.
Bain and Scott have some moves that they work together with.
We could see three sacks and a pick in this game.
I also think Morrison will do his part as a shutdown guy.
September 11th, 2026 at 9:09 am
This game is all about Vea & Kancey. If they can push the pocket, Bucs win. If not …..
September 11th, 2026 at 9:13 am
“Burrow played 8 games last year. The Bengals were 5-3 in those games.”
7 really, 7.5 at best. Burrow didn’t finish their Wk2 matchup against JAX and hurt his toe in the 2nd quarter. Bengals scored 31 points, Burrow only contributed the first 7. Funny enough Jake Browning had 2 pass TDs & 1 rush TD in that game.
My flub as that has to be accounted for when I say Burrow-less, but my mistake was not realizing they had a pick 6 to account for in their score totals. Cincys’ true ppg in games Burrow didn’t start and the one he didn’t finish makes it a 23.1 ppg scored without Burrow. Still don’t understand why offenses get credited with defensive/special teams point generation w/modern data tracking being as it’s own industry at this point.
September 11th, 2026 at 9:25 am
Exactly why you don’t resign Mayfield. If the D has a bad day, you lose.
September 11th, 2026 at 9:29 am
In case you are wondering…
Tom Brady, career. defense allowed 28 or more points:
Record: 26–37 (.413 winning percentage)
Including 5-4 in the playoffs