Unlocking Second-Down Mystery May Get The Bucs An NFC South Title
July 4th, 2026
Improving one small element could produce big results.
As much as Joe is triggered by the 2-7 post-bye collapse of the Bucs last year, they were one win away from a division title.
And despite Joe wanting to go scorched earth on a team that choked like dogs with a quitting defense down the stretch (even though the offense got healthier) just one play here or there may have made the difference between watching the playoffs at home and hosting a Wild Card game.
Joe was reading Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, which is chock-full of deeper-than-deep stats on all teams last year.
Sharp had an interesting graphic (see below). With the offensive line and receivers ravaged by injuries, Baker Mayfield (who was badly injured himself) was middling throwing on first and third downs. Joe actually thinks that’s pretty good when you remember how many starters were out for prolonged periods.
The Bucs’ passing success percentage on first downs ranked No. 12 and on third downs was No. 18. Again, average until you factor in how Mayfield too often played behind two backup tackles and two lousy backup guards — while too often throwing to receivers who were a seventh-round pick, an undrafted free agent and a washed veteran who is currently unemployed.
But on second downs? Mayfield and the Bucs were one of the worst in the league.
(A successful second-down play by most NFL statheads is when the offense gains at least 70 percent of the yards needed for a first down.)
Why did the Bucs rank No. 27 on second downs but were average on first and third downs? If the Bucs can just maintain their first- and third-down success and improve the second-down passing success rate league average, that could result in one additional scoring drive per game.
The Bucs lost six games last year by just one score. So improving one small element of the offense could transform into a pretty big result.
July 4th, 2026 at 12:56 pm
I personally don’t need the stat nerds to break down percentages for me when it comes down to the bucs last year . The defense was straight up lousy in gang tackling , flying to the ball & read n react when it mattered most . It also didn’t help that baker was giving the ball away in crunch time . The coaches were horrible & if they don’t get their heads out of thier asses , then we have a total rebuild coming.
July 4th, 2026 at 1:11 pm
They won 6 games by only one score as well, so it’s kind of a wash. Don’t see a total rebuild coming at all actually. A change in coaching staff is likely all that’s needed to get this team beyond the 1st round of the playoffs. Easy to see todd is the biggest thing holding them back.
July 4th, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Coaching matters. Good coaching is important . Bad coaching should be eliminated.
Glad Jason stuck with Tdod and waved goodbye to a hall of famer.
July 4th, 2026 at 1:53 pm
I don’t think Shepard was ‘washed’ at all. He made some clutch catches last year.
July 4th, 2026 at 1:59 pm
So does injurys obviously
July 4th, 2026 at 2:02 pm
In ’24 we were used to getting 4-5 yards running on 1st down via a variety of methods. Last year….quick screen rinse and repeat
July 4th, 2026 at 2:08 pm
Beeej, spot on.
July 4th, 2026 at 2:40 pm
If, could, should, might, maybe, probably, hopefully.
These are words that form a mantra for losers to fail upwards.
Bud Licht chose Toad Bowels over Mike Evans.
Just pure genius.
July 4th, 2026 at 3:08 pm
Why is it RBs(smaller than Baker) can get tackled 20 plus times a game and they do & are expected to pop right up and be ready to take the rock and be fed more BUT Baker decides to scrabble and run a few times per game EVERYBODY swears he is playing with injuries even thou NO REPORTS say he has any injuries!! hmmmm I wonder
July 4th, 2026 at 3:14 pm
RBUC… the difference between the QB and RB and how injuries affect performance is called a throwing arm.