Theo Ash: Let Baker Mayfield Walk
June 8th, 2026
Popular NFL analyst reacts.
Joe can already tell that the Baker Mayfield contract debate will fuel Bucs fans and fill the sleepy gap from Bucs minicamp — next week! — through the start training camp in late July.
If one follows NFL analyst Theo Ash on Twitter and TikTok and reads between the lines, he’s not much of a Mayfield kind of guy. Doesn’t hate him, just thinks Mayfield is mid.
For those who don’t know Ash, he decided to start his own NFL thinktank, solo, using various social media platforms as his stage. Joe doesn’t always agree with Ash, but his takes are usually reasoned. Between Twitter and TikTok, Ash has nearly a half-million followers.
Ash seems to think Mayfield’s camp is looking at Josh Allen-type money. And if you compare Mayfield’s numbers to Allen’s — which Ash did — they’re so close it’s spooky.
Ash leans towards letting Mayfield sign elsewhere. In a best-case scenario, he said the Bucs should franchise Mayfield for 2027 (roughly a $50 million commitment) because Mayfield isn’t worth Allen money. Allen, Ash, maintains, at least leads his team deep into the playoffs. Mayfield? Well…
Ash is quite adamant the Bucs need a dramatically better defense to win the NFC. And if the Bucs pay Mayfield an Allen-like contract, the Bucs then don’t have the Team Glazer loot lying around to adequately improve the defense.
The Joe typing here has long maintained a desire to see what Mayfield does this fall before putting a contract in front of him to sign, though the Bucs already made Mayfield an offer. With next year’s draft expected to be rich with quarterbacks, the Bucs do have options if Mayfield repeats his 2025 struggles.
At the end of the day, both Joes are confident Mayfield will be barking signals for the Bucs to start the 2027 season.
Stats from 2022 to 2025.
@theoashnfl The Bucs shouldn’t offer Baker a 50+ million a year extension #nfl #football #sports #buccaneers ♬ original sound – Theo Ash
June 8th, 2026 at 4:07 am
Bottom line, the Bucs own him for the next two seasons. Baker may hate it, but it would pay him 90 million over the next two years. He’ll just have to cut back a little, lol.
June 8th, 2026 at 4:23 am
If Baker is a top 5 QB next season that probably means the Bucs are a 11+ win team and he will get paid, if he’s mid like every year but 1, then the Bucs will win 7-10 games and will probably sign for Darnold type money around $40-45, if Baker gets injured or plays poorly then we should be close enough to draft a top prospect and get a new HC, so I don’t see why the Bucs would want to sign him this year
June 8th, 2026 at 5:48 am
At $50M with a $300M salary cap, one player is getting 1/6th of the money that has to pay the team’s top 51 players.
Dak Prescott is not worth that.
Josh Allen is not worth that.
Baker Mayfield is not worth that.
No one is really worth that.
The only time that it makes since is in a Bucs-Brady situation where the pieces are there for a championship, many still on their cheap rookie deals, and you can afford to spend crazy on a QB for a year or two to buy a shot at the trophy.
The Bucs should look hard and long at who they could win with for $20-30M if they spent that extra money to help make it possible to keep Wirth and Mauch and Diaby next year.
But, if keeping Baker looks like the smart move, which emotional bias makes me in favor of, look at the Franchise Tag as Plan B and take the following approach as Plan A.
The Salary Cap has been going up about 8% per year. On a four year extension, the salaries may zoom right past a player who wrecks his team by demanding top money up front leaving a gold plated QB on a team that isn’t competitive because it can’t afford to keep or compete for free agents.
So, offer 4 years at $45M per year for 2027-2030, fully guaranteed, but add escalators equal to each year’s salary cap increase for every year that results in a playoff appearance.
This is a win-win. The Bucs take a smaller cap hit up front. Baker doesn’t get left behind. Keep winning, and he never plays for that $45M number.
If the Bucs make the playoffs this year, as they certainly should, Baker’s escalated 2027 salary would be about $48.6M.
Make the playoffs again, and Baker’s escalated 2028 salary would be about $52.8M.
Keep winning, and 2029 would escalate to about $56.7M, and 2030 would escalate to about $61.2M.
If that is not good enough, use the money to keep building a solid team and give some other QB a shot at resurrecting their career.
June 8th, 2026 at 6:03 am
Never heard of him. Combined Theo has half a million followers? Joe, the followers on one app are almost nearly the same on the other. Take your number and divide by two. Not even going to bring up bots.
June 8th, 2026 at 6:46 am
With all the Baker-Haters on this site, if he was 0-2 in the AFC Championship games like Allen is, they’d say he was a choker. Baker’s numbers rank third best in passing yards and TDs over the last three years – and that’s with a bad defense. Pay the man!
June 8th, 2026 at 7:01 am
toopanca
Do you know what is not worth
Scrambling to find a starting Quarterback if Baker is not signed to a market value NFL QUARTERBACK
.
The Glazers
The General Manager
The Head Coach
.
Are shaking on thin ice and it’s gonna be a hot mess, actually it is a HOT MESS
.
Liam Coen disaster
June 8th, 2026 at 7:15 am
It’s crazy, isn’t it?
June 8th, 2026 at 7:28 am
Let him go. He has a track record of dissolving when he gets paid. He has had an incredible WR room over the years with lackluster numbers. Tank this year for a QB out of next years draft.
June 8th, 2026 at 7:41 am
I hear Kyle Trask is available on the cheap
June 8th, 2026 at 7:45 am
I can’t remember when it happened that the QB was anointed as the most important player on the team? Just because he touch’s the football on every snap does not make him the most important. Hell the center does too. He carries out the play from the snap but his job isn’t anymore important than the rest of the players on offense. Or defense for that matter. So why should they, as a collective, make more than anyone else on the team? Why make contracts known to anyone but the player? Whose business is it anyways. Tom Brady was effective, and so was Mahomes, because he had players around him. He knew it wasn’t a 1 man show and he actively recruited players he thought could help the team win. I love how peeps always said it was cause Brady’s wife made so much that he could afford to leave cash on the table. WTF? It was called pride and smart. He wanted to win CHAMPIONSHIPS. Period. And he knew what it took to do it. So how many QB’s that are getting paid a kings ransom have won multiple SB’s? not many if any. Soon the teams are gonna see how out of control this has gotten and start reining this craziness in. The “market” is broken and at some point it has to be fixed. I keep thinking about the Seahawks and how they built the team and then got Wilson. He helped the team get there but the main reason they won? Defense and a solid run game. And he had time to do his job when he threw.
June 8th, 2026 at 7:47 am
Assuming we have a new HC next year, would he want Mayfield or to draft his own guy?
June 8th, 2026 at 7:50 am
Baker isn’t worth the charmin extra soft he wipes his butt with.
June 8th, 2026 at 7:57 am
Let Theo Ash go. He’s no better than a fan. Without social media he would not exist.
June 8th, 2026 at 8:16 am
Josh Allen has 48 rushing TD’s to Mayfield’s 6.
I’d love to see a comparison of the 2 QB’s 4th Quarter stats.
They’re not that close and Bucs fans would be all on board with a straight up trade of Mayfield for Allen.
June 8th, 2026 at 8:17 am
Is Theo 16? Younger?
What tweens and their iPhones can do these days! AMAZING! 🙄
The only way we let Baker walk is if we tank the season trying to get one of the better QBs in this draft. That’s kind of like start over mode. That won’t happen. And remember what happened when four “good” QBs came out in Bakers draft year. One became a franchise qb, two took a while to become good starting QBs and one flamed out completely. It’s very risky trying to assess these guys. No guarantees.
I’ll ride with Baker. If we have to pay him over 50 million, that’s the going rate. Other teams are paying their QB a decent penny and still can maintain winning records and being in the playoff hunt annually. You just have to draft like a genius, give raises to players that are truly producing (and continue to produce), work the free agent market efficiently/shrewdly (see the second point about producing) and have some luck with injuries (this one can’t be controlled)… no wasted money on the Reddicks of the world.
June 8th, 2026 at 8:28 am
You have to wonder if Jason Licht already has Brendan Sorsby circled on the draft board. With Baker’s contract situation looming, waiting until you’re desperate is a losing strategy — always have a succession plan before circumstances force your hand.
June 8th, 2026 at 8:31 am
@Ballwasher61:
The thing that makes the QB the “anointed one” most importantly, is ball distribution. He has to know to whom and when the ball should go to a certain player and when it shouldn’t. Additionally – changing plays mid snap count as dictated by the defense. All of this in what seems like a brief second or two. Very few guys on this planet can do that and do it well.
June 8th, 2026 at 8:37 am
I would prefer to wait and see how the season plays out. No need to rush a deal since we have the franchise tag option in our back pocket. Let Baker play for a contract. Last year’s free fall can’t be ignored or explained away due to injuries.
June 8th, 2026 at 8:41 am
Gotta love how far the football world has come and how we’ve gotten to a point where people quote kids who start YouTube channels and open Twitter accounts. I’ve been a Buc fan since the beginning. Dont remember much about the late 70 teams as I was just a kid, but deeply recall the 80s and 90s growing up a Yucs fan. Remember the days of my pops and I foing to the games every Sunday when the Yucs were truly terrible and selling our other 2 tickets for enough to buy a couple hot dogs and sodas. Ive watched more football 1000x more football, especially Bucs football than this kid has in his short life.
But he started a Social media following and somehow people care what he has to say. I’m not saying he’s wrong or right, it’s just mind blowing that he actually gets quoted.
June 8th, 2026 at 8:42 am
Jason Lite should have drafted a starting quarterback if he didn’t want to pay his starting quarterback
STARTING quarterback MONEY!
Run Baker Run 🏃
June 8th, 2026 at 8:54 am
Why are fantasy points even remotely a part of stats used in a contract discussion? That alone should disqualify that clown’s opinion
June 8th, 2026 at 9:01 am
Luv, i doubt sorsby will get drafted…you know his gambling issues right? Just get mestemaker, even if we keep Baker….have a true bu, one waiting in the wings.
June 8th, 2026 at 9:01 am
If you’re picking between the 2 nobody’s picking Baker over Josh…
Look at the receivers Josh has had to work with versus what Baker Mayfeild has had here in Tampa. When you look at it from that standpoint it’s not even close. As a lifelong Bucs fan, I will not cry over losing Baker; we could literally bring Jameis back and get similar numbers…
June 8th, 2026 at 9:05 am
Baker mayfield numbers are better than love as a starter (Bucs tenure) also baker has a better playoff record as well
June 8th, 2026 at 9:14 am
Baker is not the guy.
June 8th, 2026 at 9:51 am
How are we saying that Mayfield and Allen’s numbers similar when Allen has twice the rush attempts for twice the yardage and FORTY TWO more rushing touchdowns in the timespan being measured?!
June 8th, 2026 at 10:36 am
Hey Lt Dan I get that and it’s the only thing I left out of my post but again it’s in the job description as part of his job. Defense have to make adjustments too my only take is that doing that doesn’t make them exponentially more important than the other guys. he needs the time to do that, the receivers to do that as well. I’m not down playing the role the QB has and what he has to do at all, it’s again just part of what he has to do at his position.
June 8th, 2026 at 10:42 am
What do Santa, the Easter bunny, and well developed Buccaneers rookie QB have in common?
None of them have ever existed!
Please do not expect them to all the sudden after 50 years to have figured it out.
We took a 4 year flyer on Winston and it was not good.
We can’t hold onto a Offensive Coordinator, what chance does a rookie QB have here?
June 8th, 2026 at 11:29 am
To Jason Licht: PLEASE RELEASE BAKER! Let him go to a team that will appreciate him and pay him what he’s worth. That will also allow the haters here to squirm and bitch about the rookie QB you draft for the next 4 years.
June 8th, 2026 at 11:31 am
So I hope this meets the requirements of that dork WWW, who brings nothing valuable or insightful to the table, he just proofreads like a 70 year old English teacher. He ignores all football topics to check for grammatical errors. Like phones can’t automatically change your words. I’m glad during his 3rd shift break at the plant he had time to proof read tho. So because the team whiffed on some guys before means to never take one again? Sure Cincy took Carson Palmer and Joe Burrow but they also took David Klinger and Akili Smith. Again,hate to defend Winston but he was not able to compete inTHIS version of the NFC south. The Saints were one game behind us and they had Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattier. The year before we barely best out a washed Cousins and a rookie Penix, it came down to week 18. Was Buffalo known for making QBs when they took Allen? A new regime is going to come in here and not care about the past. It’s time for a change. He’s been here long enough. Got here at 28, this his 4th year.
June 8th, 2026 at 11:38 am
Surf: Stop. Baker has better raw numbers and Love have better efficiency numbers. He has just been a starter 3 years and gets to the playoffs every year in THAT division. Are you really pimping your chest up at 1-2 vs 1-3? I’m not counting Baker 1-1 in Cleveland from 2020. Baker has 3 winning seasons in 8 years. Love has 3 winning seasons in 3 years. Love is 27. Baker got here at 28. Plot twist: put Baker on Green Bay and put Love here. Baker will be playing in a much tougher division and Love will be in a much weaker one. In a honest , straight up no grills response I asked chat gpt. It said Love relatively comfortably. I asked how many Gms would take Love over Baker it said 26-30. That’s a fair, objective,unbiased result from chat Gpt. Funny you guys went from comparing Baker to Allen and Mahomes and Lamar to Goff and Darnold now you have worked your way to Jordan Love. Love is better and we haven’t seen his Prime.
June 8th, 2026 at 11:39 am
PLEASE RELEASE BAKER! Let him go to a team that will appreciate him and pay him what he’s worth. That will also allow the haters here to squirm and bit-h about the rookie QB Tampa eventually drafts for the next 4 years.
June 8th, 2026 at 11:42 am
It’s so funny to try to put logic on the quarterback market it doesn’t matter what your feelings think.
June 8th, 2026 at 11:49 am
People really have forgotten that we haven’t had a decent QB in a long time outside of Brady and he was a rental. You don’t let QBs walk out of the building unless you like being unemployed.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:02 pm
Brady always took less money to win. I expect the same for Bake.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:08 pm
No, Baker is not Allen and he shouldn’t have the same type of contract as Allen. Allen has a 350 million contract with much of that guaranteed as part of a 6 year deal. I’m sure Baker is not asking for that nor does he deserve that type of contract. But he does deserve the 50 million per just not for 6 years with 5 years guaranteed. That’s a big difference. Allen has a great QB won/loss record and he deserves a lot of the credit for that but he’s also had the benefit of playing for a very good head coach for his entire career to this point. Some OC turnover but not the level of constant change that Baker’s had to deal with. The way Allen plays, I wouldn’t be surprised if his career might be shortened. Another shallow and lazy take by a so called expert.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:09 pm
These comments are making for really interesting reads.
Lots of fiction
Lots of bat-sh*t crazy hypotheticals
and as always those without an opinion complaining about the opinion of others.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:10 pm
The nerve of comparison smh. This is sad asf. Like that wise man said “ LET HIM WALK” and Check behind door number 2.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:15 pm
I have an aversion for getting deep into the weeds for statistics and such. I just want to be entertained by the game develop a fondness for certain players and appreciate it from a simplistic viewpoint. My approach is different from most. I had known of the franchise tag details but those details evaporate in my mind. I now look at the Baker situation from an entirely different perspective. The 2 first round picks dangling in front of Jason for not matching an offer must have him licking his chops. That is a timeline that works for the Bucs. If Baker plays well the Bucs have options. If the defense falters and this season doesn’t go well the Bucs have options. Baker’s only options are play or ask for a trade. I now don’t think he will likely do that. But who knows ? Quite frankly I’ve grown tired of all sports with the exception of hockey and it’s fading for me. I’m an old school guy and sports are moving in a direction that fails to provide me with enjoyment now. There are many other things that do that for me these days.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:16 pm
The salary cap goes up 20-30 million EVERY YEAR. There’s no reason on earth we cannot afford Baker and we would be insane not to sign him! He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL! Tank this season? Are you NUTS? This is a playoff team that can go far if it stays healthy!
June 8th, 2026 at 12:17 pm
Fanofdabucs he is using math to analyze the situation, you can be young and VERY good at math, and people always respect good math.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:26 pm
I love Baker’s competitive spirit and it’s infectious to the other players on the team, but Baker is who he is and that’s not a top ten QB, in order for Baker to become a top ten QB, he needs to have more consistency in his game and less below avg play, that will help the team to get more wins. Having said all that, he definitely deserves a new contract and pay raise, I hope he and the Bucs can come to some sort of compromise that’s beneficial to both him and the team.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:32 pm
Comparing Josh Allen to Baker is nuts. Is there anyone on this site that would rather have Baker? If so, they don’t watch much football.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:34 pm
50/3/100,,, baker deserves a good fair started salary ,, top 10 money , not top 5 money,,, this ash guy must be a saints fan
June 8th, 2026 at 12:40 pm
The advantage of building through the draft is that you pay less.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:41 pm
I still say the contract length is the hangup, not the dollar amount.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:43 pm
Yeah whoever this guy is, he’s hoping *his* team can sign Baker. Within a year or two, a 55 million dollar contract will sound like peanuts. Also, we still have at least a couple underperforming vets that could use a pay cut. Baker isn’t one of them. Not remotely. We don’t have the money OR THE PLAYERS we could sign to suddenly become a top 5 defense. We get there through the draft which keeps those players cheaper! Sign Baker. He’s the best chance we have and allows us to remain competitive every year! And will be the best chance we have for a long time. For every example this kid gives like Jalen Hurts there’s 3 who failed like Michael Penix.
June 8th, 2026 at 12:44 pm
I know, lets let the unemployed Joe Buc fans internet agents decide Bakers contract, lol
June 8th, 2026 at 12:44 pm
I know lets let the unemployed internet agents decide Bakers contract, have at it guys
June 8th, 2026 at 1:01 pm
BM will not quit on the team, its not in his DNA. A deal will get done, but he needs to know he is not getting Josh Allen money. Until he out performs his peers, it is what it is.
June 8th, 2026 at 1:34 pm
The stats are fairly similar when you overlook the Allan’s 45 more TDs and 20 more wins than Mayfield. But who’s counting 🙄.
Mayfield is an above average at best QB who took a SB contender and turned it into a fringe playoffs team (Bowles fault too). The question is why in the world would you pay him when you know that the rest of the team will suffer by doing so?
FYI Joe, Allen kept a rebuilding team relevant and competitive with little to no receivers. They are not the same, not even close!
June 8th, 2026 at 1:52 pm
Mayfield is under contract for the 2026 season. The tag for the 2027 season is about the same as it is reported that Mayfield desires. Is it smart to sign Mayfield to a long term contract after the disastrous last half of the 2025 season? I think the smart move is to let Mayfield play the 2026 season to evaluate whether or not to sign Mayfield to a contract based on how he plays in 2026.
June 8th, 2026 at 2:10 pm
gotta win in the playoffs if he wants big money…
time for baker to put up or shut up
GO BUCS!!!
June 8th, 2026 at 2:57 pm
Last year, Allen signed a six year, $55 million/ year contract. No, I wouldn’t offer Baker or practically any QB a contract like that. Of course, last year’s $55 million is this year’s $60 million and by the time Allen’ s contract expires, it’ll be up to $70 million.
Baker would probably be happy to sign a four year $208 million deal with $150 million guaranteed.
June 8th, 2026 at 2:59 pm
“Last year, Allen signed a six year, $55 million/ year contract. No, I wouldn’t offer Baker or practically any QB a contract like that.”
This is what he got paid for:
“The Bills and MVP QB Josh Allen have reached an agreement on a new deal that will keep him in Buffalo through 2030, the team announced Sunday.
Allen was named the AP NFL Most Valuable Player in 2024 after recording 4,269 total yards, 41 total touchdowns and the fewest turnovers of his career (8). Among his many NFL records set this season, Allen became the first player in NFL history with 5 straight 40+ total TD seasons.”
June 8th, 2026 at 3:06 pm
LOL! This is the only place where numbers lie!