Warren Sharp: Bucs Have No. 10 Strongest Strength Of Schedule
May 12th, 2026
Uphill climb.
So if you believe one of the top handicappers in Las Vegas who has transitioned into a stathead, if the Bucs are going to have to earn their wins this fall.
The full NFL schedule is expected to be released Thursday night. Oh, Joe suspects a couple of Bucs scheduled games will be leaked in the next two days, especially if the Bucs will be playing in a nationally televised game like a primetime game (Joe hopes not) or a Saturday game or an international game.
The networks have their upfronts this week (where networks bring out their stars to help pimp shows to advertising executives in the audience). FOX had theirs yesterday and they announced a few games as a result.
Networks also like to pimp upcoming games on their morning news shows, too.
So when we know who the Bucs will play when, it will give us a better idea how strong their schedule is. But if you listen to noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp, the Bucs have the No. 10 toughest schedule.
Why is Joe bringing this up from Sharp? Because he calculates strength of schedule far differently than most others. Rather than looking at last year’s records to develop a strength of schedule, Sharp goes by this season’s projected win-totals, Sharp typed on his website “Sharp Football Analysis.”
Basing strength of schedule on last year’s records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient.
NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development.
Additionally, the NFL’s 17-game season is a small sample size.
Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.
These factors make prior season records a poor indicator of future performance.
Statistical analysis supports this.
There, Sharp breaks down how, over the course of most of this century, basing strength of schedule on the prior season’s records was so inaccurate.
If the Bucs have one of the toughest schedules in the league, that suggests to Joe our friends in the desert aren’t banking on the Bucs to be a double-digit win team.
May 12th, 2026 at 12:23 am
New formula or not, these never work out the way they’re supposed to. Kudos to him to not use that ridiculous outdated model, but there are way too many variables to prognosticate anything with any kind of accuracy.
May 12th, 2026 at 2:44 am
You can’t really predict SOS anyway because of injuries.
Im sure nobody wanted to play us after we beat Seattle in their crib and everyone wanted to play us at the end of the season.
May 12th, 2026 at 3:16 am
Last year, the Bucs played the AFC East and NFC West who had a total of 77 wins. This year, the Bucs play the AFC North and NFC North who had a total of 67 wins. And, last year, the Bucs played three division winners from the year before, whereas this year the Bucs play three second place teams. So, it doesn’t seem too bad if you look at it like that,
And, while the graph shows the Bucs with the 10th toughest schedule, the difficulty grades of teams 11 through 20 are clustered very close to the Bucs grade, and that includes the Falcons. The Saints are shown having a much easier schedule, and the Panthers are shown having a much tougher schedule.
The Bucs win 9 games and surpass the 8.5 win over/under if they just beat the teams that finished 2025 below 0.500. With a healthy team, a better offensive coordinator, and important improvements on defense, the Bucs should be a much better team this year, and they should win handily against this schedule – if someone can just keep that bastard Murphy out of the mix!