Projecting Rueben Bain’s Rookie Season
May 7th, 2026
Bucs DL Rueben Bain.
UPDATED: For those who believe this research and think Rueben Bain is going to go full-blown Joey Bosa this fall, well, perhaps that won’t quite happen.
Think more like YaYa Diaby as a rookie.
Say, before 2015, rarely did defensive ends/edge rushers light up the league. That’s become more common.
Over at SI.com, Eva Geitheim thinks Bucs fans should temper expectations for first-round draft pick Bain this fall. Geitheim thinks Bain, as a rookie, will max out as an above-average Todd Bowles-type edge rusher.
Rookie stats prediction: 50 total tackles, seven sacks, one forced fumble
The Buccaneers got the edge rush help they desperately needed in Rueben Bain Jr., who surprisingly fell to No. 15 in the draft. Bain notched 9.5 sacks in his final season at Miami, and should help improve Tampa’s edge rush as he reaches the NFL.
Bain’s predicted numbers from Geitheim are pretty close to what YaYa did as a rookie in 2023; YaYa started seven games with 38 tackles and reached his career (so far) peak of 7.5 sacks that season. YaYa also had two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.
Let’s compare Bain’s projected numbers with a couple of other Bucs defensive linemen as rookies.
Vita Vea, playing for former Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith in 2018, had three sacks, 28 tackles and no forced fumbles or fumble recoveries in eight starts and 13 games.
Calijah Kancey, playing and starting in 14 games in 2023, had four sacks and 26 tackles with no forced fumbles or fumble recoveries. But Kancey did have a pass defensed!
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka started 6 games in 2021 and played in all 17. He had four sacks and 29 tackles with no forced fumbles or recoveries. JTS defended 3 passes.
Joe does not want to see Bain defending any passes this fall. Just. Rush. The. Quarterback!
May 7th, 2026 at 12:11 am
So…Darby bookends, a hurt Cancey and a limited snaps/ aging Vea by week 6? Oh plus another FA pass rusher cashing waning career checks, blitzing rookie linebacker who can’t cover and blitz special rookie nickel. Plus all the greatest hits of last years secondary. How does this go well? Bain better we’ll be more special than that forecast. I’d settle for a guy that demands double teams at some point.
May 7th, 2026 at 12:19 am
Meh, he seems more like a pass coverage inside linebacker,. Probably out of position on the edge. Needs to be in coverage more for sure. See what he can do in the open field covering some wide receivers..(Sarcasm)Todd will fix this. It’s a long off-season Bucs life.
May 7th, 2026 at 3:09 am
The good news is that we didn’t get Mesidor so there is a whole extra contract worth of time for him to get it right.
I think people are overlooking his coaching and his vast toolbox.
His 1st year stats should be more like 55 tackles, 13 TFL, 8-10 sacks, 2 FF, 1 FR.
I do agree with a better rotation he won’t eclipse any of those.
Unless he is a True Freak!!
May 7th, 2026 at 4:13 am
Im thinking Bain does substantially better than that since he already has the tools he needs to excel in the NFL and was coached by someone with plenty of experience. Im going to say he starts with double digit sacks and goes up from there.
May 7th, 2026 at 6:20 am
Sounds about right for a rookie.
May 7th, 2026 at 6:35 am
Bain will be a force right away I think. He’s played against the best that college has to offer and has dominated against the best that college has to offer. That translates over in my view.
May 7th, 2026 at 7:13 am
At this point, I can’t imagine Todd Bowles NOT keeping 6 OLBs on our opening season roster … Diaby, Bain, Muhammad, Nelson, Braswell & Walker. There are only so many opportunities for those 6 guys to get on the field. Some of those opportunities will be projected as Pass plays; some as Runs. Some OLBs pass rush better than others; some play the Run better. And yes, some are excellent at both.
YaYa tends to be reasonably good at both. He’s got excellent size (6’4″ & 270 lbs) & speed (4.51 sec 40) & durability (never missed a game). Probably why he’s averaged 700 def snaps each season in his first 3 years. He’s in a contract year, and my guess is that he’s not going anyplace.
Bain has shown in college that he’s reasonably good at both also. Like Diaby, he’s got excellent size (6’2″ & 263 lbs), decent speed (someplace around 4.7 sec purportedly). Guess though is that Bowles will focus his use more on pass rush situations.
Muhammad intrigues me. Good size (6’3″ & 250 lbs) but not super-fast for an OLB (4.88 sec in 40). His 11 sacks last year (age 30) looks like an anomaly (only had 15 sacks in his first 7 yrs … average of 2 sacks per year). Still, last year was a banner year for him, and who knows, maybe he can duplicate it here.
Nelly is huge (6’7″ & 271 lbs), not super-fast (4.82 sec in 40), but VERY CONSISTENT. Has been averaging right at 500 def snaps each year & 4 sacks per year for last 4 years. Excellent at playing the run (only 4% Missed Tackle Rate) & I suspect that’s how Bowles will use him this year.
Braswell is also good size (6’3″ & 255 lbs) & quite fast (4.60 sec in 40) but hasn’t been able to translate that to playing time (only averaging 300 def snaps per season). Excellent availability though (17 games each of his first 2 seasons) & plays the run very well. He & Nelly fill a definite need in that niche.
Walker is still a giant unknown far as I’m concerned. Like the rest of our OLBs, David’s good size (6’2″ & 260 lbs), had a great college career, but unfortunately missed all of his rookie season. I’m expecting that Bowles will use him almost exclusively in Pass Rush situations. Personally don’t expect that he’ll get huge numbers of def snaps this season though now that Bain & Muhammad are on the roster.
All-in-all I believe our OLBs will have their best year since 2019 (when the OLB group got 34 sacks & 92 pressures). That’s not just because our OLB group is more talented (it is), but even more-so because our interior DLine is much beefier & nastier, and that SHOULD help our OLBs greatly.
May 7th, 2026 at 7:59 am
What intrigues me the most about Bain is his ability to rush from the inside. He also kicks a$$. Not aware of any coach having too many players that like to kick a$$.
May 7th, 2026 at 8:32 am
Agree, he was brought in to be an edge rusher/disruptor. Get him focused and be good as a rusher. The Bucs could be a top 10 defense. Have high expectations. The old saying of be careful what you wish for. Injuries hurt the Bucs last year. The backups lacked the talent which ended the Bucs season.
Flush last season 😢 it’s over. The Bucs draft was really good 👍 and the injured players have had the off season to heal.
The Bucs should expect to win their division. Have that expectation. Push the team to have high expectations. SUPER BOWL OR BUST mentality.
May 7th, 2026 at 9:10 am
Yes agree, he looks like more of an inside guy. Hopefully he will be good moving around because it appears that is what Bowles is going to do. Keep in mind most d line guys it takes a couple of years to reach their potential. Look at Sapp. I think we need to slow down that Bain is going to be a force in his first year. Others around him will need to play.
May 7th, 2026 at 9:32 am
Bain will be successful IF bowles puts him in position to be successful!!!….play to his strengths…let him rush the passer and stop the run…
next year, after he’s had a full season in the system, THEN, you canthink about adding more things to his plate…but for now, just have him rush and stuff!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
May 7th, 2026 at 9:53 am
Bain is better then Yaya, bain has a similar strategic mind set as kancey when it comes to pass rushing and defending the run, Yaya depends more on his athletic ability and strength to win.
May 7th, 2026 at 10:11 am
Todd. Bowles. That’s all.
May 7th, 2026 at 12:01 pm
@StPeteMatt,
I agree with your take on expectations for Bain’s rookie season.
He got coached for 3 years by a former pass rusher who’s in the Hall of Fame and knows what was needed to prepare Bain for success in the NFL.
May 7th, 2026 at 2:06 pm
Prob see more sacks from Scott. Coming in unseen this s a little easier then going straight into the lions den. Scott will run around most lineman or squeeze thru a seem. Same with trotter. Still will be nice tho getting pressure from both edges with yaya and Bain and having Robinson and vea collapse the pocket. I’m not like JOE I like Bowles creativity. It’s what won us a SB we don’t win it without his defense BUT he did have all star players on his defense some nasty SOB and honestly we prob have 2 SB if not for that busted coverage in the rams playoff game.
May 7th, 2026 at 5:30 pm
I could see him maybe getting DROTY.
May 7th, 2026 at 8:37 pm
That’s actually not a bad stat line for the rookie but yaya sacks are going up and if kancey stays healthy his sacks will go up with that upgraded d line. Bowles blitzes the inside linebacker and slot corner a lot so that’s a good stat line.
May 7th, 2026 at 8:55 pm
It all depends on the Dline ,the push up front will determine how Bain does off the edge !
May 8th, 2026 at 2:43 pm
Insanity can’t be cured.
May 8th, 2026 at 6:49 pm
Being in a rotation at edge doesn’t mean Bain would have to come off the field, he can slide inside for another down and be even more devastating against a guard.
7 sacks would be my target, but playing against the heavy elite offensive tackles in the NFL every week will slow him a bit. He’s a beast, can’t wait to see that first step and violence on the field.