Why Are The Draft Gurus, Simulators Going Wrong With The Bucs?
April 12th, 2026
“Mr. Glazer, I’m sending out more smoke than the streets of Ybor.”
When it comes to the Bucs, a respected year-round draft guru is in line with a published ESPN draft simulator result based on a formulaic compilation of “mock drafts, scout rankings and team needs.”
And people wonder why Joe uses the term “schlock drafts.”
So the PFF frauds/tribesmen at Pro Football Focus — publishing content for the general public — finally were bascially put out of their misery. That means their wing of the company was bleeding money. The last content posted on their home page was posted six days ago.
Longtime PFF draft guru Trevor Sikkema, a renowned Bucs fan, has escaped the Tribe but remains co-host of a very popular and credible draft podcast called NFL Stock Exchange.
Somehow, Sikkema’s study of all things Bucs and all things NFL Draft let him tie himself to an NFL Stock Exchange mock draft last week that has the Bucs drafting Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane at No. 15 overall next week. And on Friday, the BSPN Draft simulator handed the Bucs at No. 15 Georgia left tackle Monroe Freeling.
Joe’s hands are in the air.
On what planet will Buccaneers Ring of Honor general manager Jason Licht add a blue-chip offensive lineman to an offensive line that already has two first-round draft picks (Tristan Wirfs and Graham Barton), two second-round picks (Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke), and a starting left guard with a guaranteed contract and quality play on his résumé?
Oh, and every one of those Bucs starters is 28 years old or younger.
Tampa Bay drafting a stud offensive lineman at No. 15 is not the equivalent of the Bucs picking Emeka Ebuka last year. Tampa Bay didn’t have a “need” at receiver, but they also had old stud receivers with uncertain futures. That’s not the case on the Bucs offensive line.
Joe is trying to figure out what the mockers are seeing or hearing, but Joe continues to draw a blank. Still, something is driving this (Joe’s seen other mocks calling for the Bucs drafting O-line in Round 1.)
Could it be private smoke screens coming from Licht to help draw a trade-down offer? Little else makes sense.
April 12th, 2026 at 2:53 pm
I think it has to do with bpa which unfortunately doesn’t coincide with the bucs needs. thats why saddiq is a popular option but im not a fan of his height and short arms not much of a catch radius like a loveland for a te.
April 12th, 2026 at 3:12 pm
It’s likely due to the fact that both of those guys are ugrades over Bredeson, and Mauch is coming off a major injury and is in the last year of his deal as well. There’s already big money tied up at L/RT, so having another top notch G on a rookie deal to replace Mauch or Bredeson next year would make sense. Having said that, there’s still some solid OL prospects that’ll be available on Day 2 and early day 3 as well. Ideally Licht is able to trade down and get another day 2 pick at a minimum. Still see EDGE, LB & CB as the top 3 needs at this point.
April 12th, 2026 at 3:17 pm
To be fair to Trevor, I’ve seen him doing multiple mocks & he typically goes Edge or LB in the first depending on if there’s a trade-down or not. Like many of us, he likes to change it up on occasion just to see how the draft unfolds. Not getting an Edge & LB in the first 2 rounds without a trade-down though can really make things dicey as the draft goes along.
April 12th, 2026 at 3:20 pm
It would make sense if you believe Mauch’s knee is a question mark, or they want a real cheap alternative. Remember Mauch is in a contract year, coming off a knee. A first round guard is an inexpensive way out four 4 years. They paid Goedeke, Wirfs, and will have to pay Barton. Can’t pay everyone. Wouldn’t be the first RG Licht drafted that he didn’t resign. Forget his name he left for Cinncy. Our guard play wasn’t that good, or deep last year.
April 12th, 2026 at 3:25 pm
Flboy84 – agree. The middle of our line with bredson, and barton is pretty average. Not bad, but average. It’s not like Barton is Quentin Nelson or some generational talent either. If we can improve starting group, as well as depth – I’m not exactly going to call my company’s EAP over it for f sake. The draft lacks a lot of elite talent. Pretty thin and unexciting first round grade talent after the first 15 guys or so. The Bucs offense was a complete disaster when we had just a few guys dinged up. You won by scoring points and protecting the quarterback
April 12th, 2026 at 3:26 pm
I could understand Ioane cause than we have the best O-line with a quality backup at guard and center in Bredeson.
But Ioane never gets past Baltimore as he is exactly what they need, so we can just draft Sadiq or one of the two CB’s 🙂
April 12th, 2026 at 3:29 pm
Trust me Joe’s, we need Ioane badly! I know its not a sexy pick but Ive been pushing for him for months now. Bredeson can be our bu swing guy, and if Mauch has issues, at least we’re covered. Maybe Ioane goes RG, Bredeson C and Barton at LG. Somehow, some way, we have to keep Baker upright and safe….we saw what happens when hes running for his life and already injured.
Its common sense to me, has been for months, but others want the shiny toy on D and i DO NOT TRUST Todd….sorry. Protect Baker with the first most important pick, then all D from there.
April 12th, 2026 at 3:30 pm
Agreed Oxy. Definitely some question marks with drops and some other things with Sadiq. He would definitely be bring a new element and is a wiling blocker but is it worth spending that high pick for that is what I’m wondering. Guard would be nice and is much needed. If the grades are accurate, Bredeson took a step back last year and is serviceable but not really good. Then there is zero depth behind them.
April 12th, 2026 at 3:31 pm
The Bucs offensive line is the most overrated line in the NFL.
.Ioane and Feeling will probably start, if giving a fair opportunity
This offensive line stunk last year, before the injuries
Go back to the preseason game against Pittsburgh backups
The first game of the season against Atlanta
Against Atlanta Baker was the leading rusher with 39 yds
April 12th, 2026 at 3:32 pm
These guys look at last year’s stats only. O-Line wasn’t good last year. Therefore, the Bucs need to draft O-Line. No research on injuries, contracts, or history.
April 12th, 2026 at 3:32 pm
I think what makes the NFL draft so popular is that technically there are no right or wrong pics until several years after the fact. So the speculation is fun, unless I guess you’re an NFL GM.
Everybody has seen the probability odds of success by round. I’ve read a lot about the BPA over “need” proponents. I honestly wonder how much “BPA” has effected odds of success over the years? No real stat for that.
I agree with Joe on this one. The “need” versus “already stocked” in this scenario is absurd!
Bottom line for me is that if it’s a crap shoot anyway why not roll for your biggest need?
April 12th, 2026 at 3:34 pm
@FlBoy84 and @Hodad are speaking the truth. To add … if Bucs go all-in on the Baker Mayfield train, they absolutely have to protect his interior because he is an undersized QB, they can’t have big DTs climbing up over the interior and getting in his face. We have ZERO depth at IOL and Bredeson and Mauch are coming off injuries—and when last did we go a whole year without injuries on the O-line? Ask this another way, who is likelier to go to the Pro Bowl, Messidor or Ioane? Makes so much sense and I hope Licht goes in that direction, if those players are available.
April 12th, 2026 at 3:35 pm
When the o line plays well, Baker and the offense do great things. When they don’t we get injuries, no running game and losses.
April 12th, 2026 at 3:37 pm
Let me go a step further and say that Licht should double-up on O-line. He is great at hitting on O-line drafts, and quite hit-and-miss at EDGE.
April 12th, 2026 at 4:12 pm
We can’t keep moving the line around this is effing ridiculous
April 12th, 2026 at 4:16 pm
Mauch is probably our second best O-lineman so replacing him is a bad idea. Pay him. We don’t need a guard until at least the 4th round. We are planning on starting Christian Rozeboom, for God’s sake! He’s as much of a liability in the passing game as Lavonte and SVD were last year! Draft Rodriguez. Yeah it’s a bit early but not as early as you think. Make Rozeboom a special teamer and backup.
April 12th, 2026 at 4:23 pm
I have no doubt that whomever the Bucs select, that player will have unlimited potential!
April 12th, 2026 at 4:30 pm
The low point of the OLine came against the Saints in week 8
The Bucs had 1 and goal from the Saints 1
The Saints jumped offside, so it’s first and inches for the TD
The Bucs ran the ball 4 straight times, and we’re stuffed each time
They couldn’t even gain a few inches on 4 tries
April 12th, 2026 at 4:37 pm
Looking at the next article it’s like the Joes read my mind.
April 12th, 2026 at 4:39 pm
Mauch is our road-grading mauling guard. We sure missed him all season, Lakeland.
April 12th, 2026 at 5:19 pm
Good!!!
April 12th, 2026 at 6:05 pm
Well at least an offensive lineman is less likely to be totally ruined by the defensive genius.
April 12th, 2026 at 7:39 pm
Liking the smoke screen theory. But man, how cool would it be if you could guarantee protection for the Bake to cook. A healthy Baker is a good Baker. Or am I just blowing smoke?