Baker Mayfield: Clutch, Stats Say
July 6th, 2026
Laughs at fourth-quarter pressure.
This sort of puts a crack in the foundation of folks who think Baker Mayfield is a choke artist.
Joe knows people holler that Mayfield too often throws fourth-quarter picks. That’s not true. Both Dak Prescott and Pat Mahomes had more. Super Bowl-winning quarterback Sam Darnold (Seattle) and Denver’s Bo Nix, who led the Broncos to the AFC title game, had just as many (four).
But Mayfield, per NFL senior researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno, was one of the more clutch quarterbacks in the league.
Last year Mayfield guided the Tampa Bay offense to 36 first downs or touchdowns in the fourth quarter when it was a one-possession game. That was good enough for fourth-most in the league.
So in tight games late, Mayfield was adept at moving the ball. That’s a good thing, no?
Mayfield was tied with Nix in the category.
While Mayfield may not be Tom Brady when it comes to having icewater in his veins late, Mayfield’s not bad in a clutch possession.
Most first downs or TD in the 4th quarter of one-possession games in 2025…
1. Josh Allen – 42
2. Matthew Stafford – 37
3. Caleb Williams – 36
4. Bo Nix – 34
4. Baker Mayfield – 34
6. Jordan Love – 32
6. Dak Prescott – 32
6. Justin Herbert – 32
9. Jalen Hurts – 30
10. Drake Maye…— NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) March 24, 2026
July 6th, 2026 at 7:25 am
Let the trolls wake up. Then they will tell all of us just how wrong this article was, and or make excuses for why it’s not relevant. I’ll watch from afar.
July 6th, 2026 at 7:26 am
Over his three regular seasons with the Bucs Baker has committed a combined total of 10 turnovers (7 interceptions and 3 lost fumbles) in the fourth quarter. When he commits a fourth-quarter turnover the Bucs are 1-9 (1-7 reg season, 0-2 playoffs).
During the last 9 games of the 2025 regular season, the Bucs were leading, tied, or losing by 7 points or less in the 4th quarter in 8 games. The Bucs only won one of those 8 games, they beat the Cardinals by 3…barely. The Rams game was a blowout and the other games the Bucs lost by an average of 3 points.
So the big question is where was this clutchness then? Ohhh, lemme guess, injuries? But the team got healthier down the stretch and played worse. Yall give Baker too many excuses. Hes not clutch down the stretch and definitely not in the playoffs.
July 6th, 2026 at 7:30 am
Last year, I believe, Mayfield had 2 picks in the 4th quarter of one score games. But if you delve deeper, you’ll find out that in his career he had 2 picks in the 4th quarter in his previous 47 games that were within one score in the 4th quarter. That’s incredibly impressive. He’s the best QB in the league. Jarheads around here will say he’s a choke artist. They also say he’s inaccurate, especially deep passes. He’s really accurate, especially with the deep ball. Todd Bowles and Jason Licht and Baker Mayfield are all too stubborn for their own good. And they keep receipts. I love our chances this season.
July 6th, 2026 at 7:32 am
Oh yeah. Bee is a moron that doesn’t know his butt from a hole in the ground.
July 6th, 2026 at 7:32 am
“Warren Brooks Lynch Says:
June 24th, 2026 at 8:37 am
Most total first downs “or” TDs?
What’s the actual split between first downs & TDs? and does this count means we combined them?
By this QB-A would be higher on the list with 16 first downs and 6 TDs, than QB-B who generated 10 first downs and 11 TDs
A little fishy, no?”
Deja vu all over again
July 6th, 2026 at 7:40 am
WBL is too stubborn for his own good, also. At least he’s not a moron who doesn’t know his butt from a hole in the ground.
July 6th, 2026 at 7:47 am
The prognosis goes on and on and the season hasn’t started. Once it does we’ll have a better understanding where the Bucs stand. Keep speculating, doesn’t mean much. Keeps sports commentators employed while the NFL season doesn’t start until September for players and coaches.
Just a few months more of the nonsense.
July 6th, 2026 at 7:48 am
I guess that’s a nice way to pretty up his having the 4th highest league total interceptions. I’m not sure what a clutch 28-26 qb looks like.
July 6th, 2026 at 7:51 am
Irrelevant lol…
Baker and Dak missed the playoffs despite being so “clutch” lol
baker had 5 4th quarter turnovers in the month of DEC which doomed our playoff hopes…
keep putting lip stick on a pig lol…
GO BUCS!!!!
July 6th, 2026 at 7:52 am
Faker Suckfield was super clutch vs the Rams in 2025. It was a SB caliber performance. Undeniably clutch!
Then he took on the Joe Montana of our time in Kirk Cousins in prime time ant home and guided the Bucs to yet another classic finish! Astonishingly clutch!!!
If you need further proof, look no further than the Dolphins game vs the future HOF QB, none other than Quinn Ewers. He was stolen in the sixth round!!! That’s the game we saw the best of what Faker has to offer. Generationally Clutch!!!!
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
July 6th, 2026 at 8:01 am
“WBL is too stubborn for his own good, also. At least he’s not a moron who doesn’t know his butt from a hole in the ground.”
Has nothing to do with stubbornness and has more to do with what the stat is specifically tracking relative to the tally number. Any football casual would value TDs over first downs, so to combine them to make a value without saying how many TDs & 1st downs contributed to the number is kind of useless.
Thus the example in my original post when Joe posted this not too long ago. Must’ve been alot of time in the sun, cold ones and sides of cole slaw.
July 6th, 2026 at 8:07 am
8-9, that’s all I care about.
July 6th, 2026 at 8:08 am
LynchMob50. The Rams game was game 11. Game 9 our defense gave up 4 touchdowns of over 60 yards. Hadn’t been done in 25 years in the league. Mayfield threw 3 TD passes and the Bucs had 0 turnovers in game 9. In game 10 Josh Allen accounted for 6 touchdowns for the second time in his career. Mayfield led an offense that hung 32 points and had the ball taken out of his hands on 4th and 3 with 5 minutes to play. By the time we got to the Rams, I’m pretty sure, as they were scoring touchdowns on every single possession of the first half, that Mayfield had probably had about enough of that bullshlt. And yes, that’s on him. Oh yeah, LynchMob50. You’re a moron without a clue concerning the relationship between your a$$ and a hole in the ground.
July 6th, 2026 at 8:21 am
Should ask niner Mike Evans broken collar what he thinks. Clutch for me is season on the line win or go home. What’s that look like? It’s a Bucs life.
July 6th, 2026 at 8:22 am
Kenton Smith has a bee in his bonnet.
In the two playoff losses we saw just how clutch Faker Suckfield truly is.
He threw the INT late in the Lions game that sealed the deal. And fumbled the game away vs the Redskins. Yep, he’s better than Tom Brady!
I’m still trying to find his playoff stats from last year but that data seems to be hidden. I wonder why that is????
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
July 6th, 2026 at 8:30 am
Not sure how our poor defensive play impacts Baker’s performance other than forces him sometime to take more chances because he has to win in a shoot out, like the Seattle game, because the D couldn’t stop the other team.
July 6th, 2026 at 8:40 am
Regardless, they’ll be playing meaningful games in December again and be in the hunt for the playoffs again …Go Bucs!
July 6th, 2026 at 8:40 am
Another meaningless stat. What about the 3rd qtr. when plays can be made to score or stop the other team? Or early in the 4th qtr. Turnovers kill you no matter when they occur, it just looks bigger at the end of the game but you have to look at the whole game in it’s context. That pick six against the Rams came early and Tampa was down 14-0 early, did that play a hand in the game? You bet. Is the defense giving up big plays or extended drives for points the whole game? {See Buffalo game}. It’s not just one guy. If you put him in position to save your bacon all the time typically at the end of a game, the chances that a turnover will happen go up drastically. That’s why a balanced team with good, doesn’t need to be great, defense, special team unit, and offense that can run the ball and move the chains usually wins more than it loses.
July 6th, 2026 at 8:42 am
KS
what about the DEC games?…lol…
GO BUCS!!!!
July 6th, 2026 at 8:43 am
Most Bucs fans want to see Mayfield re-signed…the issue is for how much and what will be the impact on the team’s cap.
2027 Bucs Free Agents, partial list:
Chris Godwin, Vita Vea, Cody Mauch, Chase McLaughlin, YaYa Diaby, Sean Tucker, A’Shawn Robinson
2028 Bucs Free Agents, partial list:
Antoine Winfield, Alex Anzalone, Ben Bredeson, Kenny Gainwell, Calijah Kancey, Tykee Smith, Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving
Mayfield’s new contract will largely determine the Bucs future roster.
Is Mayfield worth $55-60 million per year? He hasn’t shown that up to now.
Does he have the talent? Yes. Is he a CONSISTENT Winner? Not really.
July 6th, 2026 at 8:57 am
First, Bee 🐝 maybe overly biased toward Baker but a moron, no! As far as excuses for Baker, most will agree that something physically was wrong with Baker! The Bucs knew this and allowed him to continue to play. Why did not the NFL, for the good of the league investigate the issue? Pain not only affects the physical aspect of the game but the mental as well. If the Bucs do not win 11-12 regular season games and win 2 or more games in the playoffs, then hats off to to the biased nay sayers!
July 6th, 2026 at 9:04 am
Mostly only the Baker haters have jumped in on this chat! Talk about a bee in the bonnet! Lol! Baker must go! lol! Based on how much Baker is hated by some so called fans, it’s hard to imagine those people being happy if the Bucs win the Superbowl! More likely they’ll be borderline suicidal! lol!
Go Bucs!
July 6th, 2026 at 9:11 am
As is so often the case, most everyone seems to be attempting to boil ‘the issue’ (whatever it happens to be) down to a single descriptor applying over the entire season. Rarely is that an accurate way of looking at an individual’s … or a team’s … performance.
Kenton you gave the ultimate example … Games 9-11 last season. You get a much different perspective of our offense & defense IMO if you evaluate our 2025 season in 3 segments:
o Segment 1 – Games 1-8 (record 6-2): Offense scored 197 pts (24.6 PPG) – Defense allowed 178 pts (22.3 PPG) – Bucs had 5 giveaways vs 12 takeaways (PLUS 7 Turnover Differential). That’s an acceptable prescription for winning.
o Segment 2 – Games 9-11 (record 0-3): Offense scored 62 pts (20.7 PPG) – Defense allowed 106 pts (35.3 PPG) – Bucs had 4 giveaways vs 4 takeaways (Zero Turnover Differential). That’s the ultimate prescription for losing BIG.
o Segment 3 – Games 12-17 (record 2-4): Offense scored 121 pts (20.2 PPG) – Defense allowed 127 pts (21.2 PPG) – Bucs had 7 giveaways vs 7 takeaways (Zero Turnover Differential). That’s the ultimate prescription for break-even-at-best (and we didn’t quite manage that).
So the only segment in which our offense scored MORE points than our defense allowed was in the first 8 games. We also had a great Turnover Differential in that 8-game stretch. Little wonder that was the best of the 3 segments (we went 6-2).
But the next 3 games were utter disasters. Our scoring went down (to 20.7 PPG) while our defense ballooned to 35.3 PPG. BOTH sides imploded. LOTS of reasons why (and I doubt any had to do with loafing). But the point is THAT 3-game stretch crucified us (we got beaten up for 1 thing).
The last 6 games however tell a very bizarre story IMO. Our offense slid a tad further (to 20.2 PPG) but our defense improved significantly (to 21.2 PPG, its’ lowest of the year). And yet we went 2-4 and barely managed that (3 pt win against Arizona & 2 pt win against Carolina, with our defense averaging allowing less than 16 PPG in those 2 games).
And yet all season our defense gave up far too many explosive plays (passing AND running plays) AND we couldn’t make the BIG STOPS when it was critical (allowing 69.8% TDs in the Red Zone last season is kind of a giveaway). Still, it’s not very productive IMO to paint either our offense OR our defense with just single descriptors. Each side of the ball had some good games, some bad games, and some YGBSM games. This year WILL be different … HOPEFULLY.
July 6th, 2026 at 9:25 am
If our defense can hold a lead and our O-line stays healthy, we’ll be fine.
I just wish Baker would slide at the end of his scrambles. That’s the big change we need.
July 6th, 2026 at 9:26 am
Wonderful and acceptable stat to look at.
It is good stat to point out the things that Baker did well.
Are we saying that everyone in the top 10 is “clutch”?
Joe states that NFL Senior writer Tony Holzman-Escareno says that is a “clutch” stat. I don’t see that in his tweet.
Is this going forward going to be the stat that the Joe’s use to prove someone is “clutch”?
Joe hinted at this by mention Mahomes, Nix and others. If someone throws for 34 TDs and 1st downs during that time and throws 6 Interceptions — are they better than someone that throws for 25 TDs and 1st downs and throws 2 Interceptions. Or look at how many sacks the QB took when they got into FG or TD range?
Very good start to look at IMO — but I am not ready to go with this “Joe” trying to suggest this is an important “clutch” stat.
July 6th, 2026 at 9:39 am
It’s funny, when Baker makes a bad play his critics will say “That’s the real Baker”.
Like, his good plays are fake Baker?
July 6th, 2026 at 9:41 am
What about December games?? Ask Cleveland, New York (both team there) Arizona etc.. the list goes on..ask Jacksonville N.E. Seattle how was it to play that late in the season where all the hard work was finally paying off,im sorry my life is really good great wife, grown kids,home on the gulf of America! I dont let a game bring out hate,negativity life’s good Im positively looking forward to Bowles and the Bucs!
July 6th, 2026 at 10:37 am
During last seasons hot 6-2 start Baker had 4 game winning drives. When he had the mostly practice squad O Line, No ME13SF, No CG, No OC , No Bucky, yes baker struggled more, Obviously! Baker hate runs deep in many of you. Sad for you
July 6th, 2026 at 11:22 am
So far, Baker has been clutch quite a bit, except for in the most meaningful games.
So, I don’t really categorize that as clutch in my opinion. (Not yet at least, hotshot that changes)
July 6th, 2026 at 11:23 am
Defense Rules Says:
This year WILL be different … HOPEFULLY.
—————————————————————————–
Thank you for your entire post above, and ALL your postings on this site. It’s nice to read some intelligent posts along with all the others. 😉
This year is already quite a bit different, even before the season starts. Two of the coordinators have been significantly upgraded; many of the defensive starters will have been upgraded. If Hurst is coachable and can be turned into a great route runner, he’s going to be amazing.
I’m cautiously optimistic, because multiple injuries at a position where we lack depth could keep the team from performing anywhere near its ceiling. And some of the rookies for sure need to be developed. But Licht hit a home run in the off-season IMO with the talent he brought in via the draft and free agency.
July 6th, 2026 at 11:50 am
“The last 6 games however tell a very bizarre story IMO. Our offense slid a tad further (to 20.2 PPG) but our defense improved significantly (to 21.2 PPG, its’ lowest of the year). And yet we went 2-4 and barely managed that (3 pt win against Arizona & 2 pt win against Carolina, with our defense averaging allowing less than 16 PPG in those 2 games).”
Those first 12 takeaways in the first 8 games we scored 43 points immediately after our defense forced a takeaway, conversely our defense allowed 10 points off those 5 giveaways. That was before the bye week.
After the bye our offense scored 3 points(FG after the Parrish pick in Buffalo) off 11 takeaways by our defense, and the defense allowed 27 points off the offense giving up the ball 11 times. So yea the margin looks about even, but what happened after wasn’t always rewarding to the winning effort.
That 6 game stretch you’re referring to, we turned the ball over 7 times in 5 of 6 games, we also got the ball back off 7 in takeaways in 4 of 6 games of that final stretch.
Offense scored 0 points off the last 7 takeaways, defense allowed 3 off the offenses final 7 giveaways.
Offensively we ranked 14th in points scored off 23 takeaways w/63 total points.
Defensively we ranked 3rd in points allowed after giveaways w/37 total points (2 TDs & the rest FGs) .
In our last 2 wins we were +4 in turnover margin, but only scored a grand total of 3 TDs, Punted 8 times, went 5 of 6 from FG ranged and 1 INT.
You win and lose games based off what and how you respond to sudden changes of possession. As a team we weren’t synced up there at all.
Also, for the stats are for losers crowd. We get it, math is hard and some of this stuff may as well be cumulus clouds they’re so far above you head. So please, don’t come in here pissing-n-moaning about data you cannot and refuse to even try to understand.
-thx mismanagement
July 6th, 2026 at 11:59 am
Baker was a big reason why the Bucs finished 2-7. Any clutch happened in the 6 wins early. But when times were tough, the games were critical and the Bucs needed late offensive production, Baker gagged.
That’s a fact.
Baker was a big reason, but not the biggest reason. The biggest reason only gets bigger and bigger. And bigger. At least The Hutt has a new crop of rookies and free agents he can help teach regression techniques to.
And finally in 2026, don’t expect the wheels to come flying off after the bye. The wheels won’t even be attached. The infamous swoon starts game 1.
2026 will make last season’s finish look like great football.
July 6th, 2026 at 12:22 pm
Clutch? Or playing from behind? Desperation vs consistency throughout a game
July 6th, 2026 at 12:30 pm
They led Atlanta by 15 points in the 4th quarter.
3rd and 28 happened but so did Baker playing like Dlifer against the Giants on opening day in 1999.
July 6th, 2026 at 1:05 pm
Baker doesn’t play both sides of the ball. 28 points should win a game with a half decent Defense. Baker didn’t allow the 15 points to be given up nor the total of 29. He also didn’t give up the 3rd and 28 or 4th and 14. The defense does their job and what is the team goes to the playoffs. The team wasn’t good enough to go anywhere in the playoffs anyway.
July 6th, 2026 at 1:27 pm
“The defense does their job and what is the team goes to the playoffs.”
Who put the defense back on the field subsequently with 8:22 left in the game and just outside of scoring range?
“It falls on my shoulders,” Mayfield told reporters following the 29-28 defeat. “Can’t turn the ball over, can’t have that interception. And then, just gotta hit [Emeka Egbuka] in stride on that third down. Listen, you can say what you want about being up two scores and the defense right there, but we have to be better on offense, and it comes down to how I play. And this one’s gonna haunt me. This falls on my shoulders.”
“It wasn’t even a disguise, you know,” Mayfield said. “It’s quarters coverage. He’s playing outside leverage, which is really not what he normally does on tape. You gotta go through the reads and if it’s not there, take the damn check down. And it’s plain and simple. This one’s, like I said, it’s gotta beat me up for a little bit.”
Your attempt to serve up an excuse despite Bakers’ own admission on the very play you didn’t mention while recalling what happened in the game. This is why guys gripe about constantly making excuses for Baker, your comment in a nutshell is doing exactly that.
July 6th, 2026 at 1:51 pm
Fool I was waiting for you to jump as I knew you have been waiting to do! Of course Baker took responsibility. The FACT is he didn’t give up 29 points! Atlanta should never been allowed to score 29 points. But you course to want to over look the fact the DEFENSE gave up that many points over the entire game.
July 6th, 2026 at 1:56 pm
The team’s going to suck this year. With or without Baker.
July 6th, 2026 at 1:57 pm
Singlehandedly lost 4 games in a row to cost the Bucs the playoffs… played his worst game of the year in a must win game… but yeah, he’s ICE.
LOL!
July 6th, 2026 at 1:58 pm
“Fool I was waiting for you to jump as I knew you have been waiting to do! Of course Baker took responsibility. The FACT is he didn’t give up 29 points! Atlanta should never been allowed to score 29 points.”
You’re still dancing around the fact he took an opportunity to close the game out with the same drive he gave the ball back to ATL, lol your memory starts and stops with the defense. I find it a little funny, but realize it may be degenerative memory loss. More fatty acids, less whine and cheese.
July 6th, 2026 at 2:15 pm
Statistics are the results of plays. They do nothing to change the future.
For example, we often hear how many times the Bucs rush the ball when they win, and how much they pass when they lose. With the simple solution being “they should’ve just run more.”
Here’s a very simple way to analyze it: why didn’t they win? They didn’t play well enough.
You’re welcome. Get a life.