Assigning Blame; Adding Firepower
March 23rd, 2026
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BY IRA KAUFMAN
Let’s not lose sight of what really happened to the 2025 Buccaneers.
The defense, while still lousy, wasn’t much worse than the 2024 unit. It’s easy to forget the 2024 team won 10 games, despite yielding an average of 22.6 points, which ranked in the middle of the NFL pack. Tampa Bay allowed an average of 24.2 points last year, ranking 20th out of 32 teams, yet the franchise slid to 8-9.
Neither of those numbers inspires confidence, especially for a defensive-minded coach like Todd Bowles. But if you’re looking for the No. 1 reason for the dropoff, focus on an offense that cratered when it counted the most.
You can blame injuries, you can point to the inexperience of Josh Grizzard or you can single out Bowles, but there’s no denying the 2025 Bucs fell off the map with the ball in their hands.
Baker Mayfield
Instead of averaging 29.5 points under Liam Coen in 2024, the Buc offense dropped more than 7 points per game (22.4). Instead of topping 20 points in 14-of-17 games, last year’s team forgot how to score after the bye week.
During their 6-2 getaway, the Bucs topped 20 points six times. The final nine games? Not so much, topping 20 points only three times.
Buc fans are counting on improvement with Zac Robinson calling the offensivfe shots this fall.
You can challenge for a championship by virtue of a prolific attack. The top six scoring offenses last season — the Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, Bills, Lions and Jaguars — went a combined 74-28. All posted winning records while only Detroit (9-8) failed to make the playoffs.
Getting it done on third down is another key metric.
The top clubs in third-down conversion rate were the 49ers, Packers, Chargers, Bills, Bengals, Patriots and Bears. They combined for a 75-43-1 mark, with only the Bengals missing the postseason.
Even without Mike Evans, the Bucs have the makings of a potent offense, especially if Bucky Irving recaptures his spectacular rookie form. Few teams boast a better starting five up front and Baker Mayfield should be hitting his prime. The wide receiver corps, young and talented, will receive a major boost if Chris Godwin plays like Chris Godwin can.
Adding Kenneth Gainwell was a smart move and don’t be shocked if Jason Licht decides to give Mayfield another speedy weapon next month with the 15th pick in the draft.
Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq.
Although the Bucs just re-signed Cade Otton, Kenyon Sadiq could be sitting there, primed for the taking. He posted the fastest 40 time in Combine history for a tight end (4.39) and if the Bucs deem Sadiq the best player available at that point, Licht needs to pull the trigger.
Otton is a solid player, but he’s not special. He has 11 TD catches in four seasons, averaging 9.7 yards per reception. Sadiq has a chance to be special — but only if he wants to be great.
O.J. Howard offers a cautionary tale.
In 2017, Howard had the look of a special tight end prospect, so Tampa Bay selected the former Alabama standout in the opening round. He underachieved, then was out of football at age 28 because he didn’t love the game enough.
Sadiq has drawn comparisons to Vernon Davis, who ran a 4.4 time in 2006, when the 49ers chose him with the sixth overall pick. Davis went on to earn two Pro Bowl berths. From 2009-13, he averaged 9 TDs per season and finished a long career averaging 13 yards per catch.
Will Sadiq match that kind of production? Nobody knows, but you can bet Tampa Bay’s scouting staff has done a deep dive into Sadiq’s passion for football.
When Howard was coming out for the 2017 draft, one scouting service quoted an anonymous NFC GM: “I don’t worry about the talent at all. He could be an All-Pro. I just need to know if he loves football.”
Licht shouldn’t shy away from Oregon’s intriguing tight end just because Howard didn’t work out. Sadiq could end up being the missing piece that turns a good offense into an elite one.
March 23rd, 2026 at 10:26 am
If the defense can hold a lead, the offense would NOT have to play catch-up. Late in games if a team needs to score what are they going to do? PASS! Defenses can tee off and pressure the QB causing errors & turnovers. Fix the Dee and the Bucs will be a competitive team
March 23rd, 2026 at 10:34 am
This is a reasonable analysis but 3rd and 28 is hard to forgive. Even comparing to the 2024 team is a reach – they didn’t get anywhere in the playoffs either. Making the playoffs in a league where so many do is not enough. Buc fans want to be a legitimate contender, annually. Not wait for some weird savior to arrive – Gruden in 2002, Brady in 2020.
March 23rd, 2026 at 10:35 am
I’m disappointed Ira. You admit that the Bucs’ defense was in a freefall in 2024 & 2025, then propose to use our top pick to draft a Tight End. The primary reason our defense stunk these last 2 years is because we lacked TALENT. Bowles is part of the reason to be sure, BUT … he led our 2023 defense (with Devin White as our MLB) to a #7 ranking, allowing only 325 pts.
Our 2024 defense allowed 385 pts (60 more) and our 2025 defense allowed 411 pts (26 more than 2024). To be fair though, our 2025 defense got charged with 21 pts while they were sitting on the bench (blocked punt return for TD, blocked FG return for TD, and Pick 6). None of that happened in 2024, so the defensive results of the 2 seasons are quite similar, despite the fact that the 2025 defense surrendered a LOT more explosive plays for TDs.
Preventing the opponent from scoring has just as much impact on the score as our offense scoring does. Personally I think it’s shameful that our offense scored over 500 pts in 2024 (to rank 4th best in the NFL) yet we ONLY finished 10-7 on the season. I blame that on a defense that allowed 385 pts on the season, and worse, lost 3 games that year (Falcons, 49ers & Commanders) because our defense couldn’t hold the line in the 4th qtr.
We won’t fix that by drafting Tight Ends Ira. Solidify our interior DLine by drafting a beastly NT/DT like Kayden McDonald in Rnd 1 instead so that we CAN hold up better in the 4th qtrs this year. Just as importantly, that’ll set us better for 2027 when our current DLinemen … Vea, Robinson & Kancey … are all UFAs.
March 23rd, 2026 at 10:37 am
The defense has been bad for the last 2 years, and the same guy is running that sh!tshow. The offense better score A LOT of points.
March 23rd, 2026 at 10:47 am
The Sadiq selection is laughable compared to what we need on defense. He ran a 4.39. Culp ran a 4.48, weighing a little more than Sadiq. Do you know what the difference in those times looks like? Minimal. A step. In 40 yards, it’s about 1 stride. So that is the difference in the #15 pick in the entire draft vs a 7th round TE that hasn’t seen the field much? Check out Zach Kuntz, TE in the 2023 draft. At that time had the top RAS ( Raw Athletic Score) score in the history of the combine . Went 7th round to the Jets, has been on the practice squad for 3 years. The combine results are directional, can a guy run and jump? Ok. That doesn’t mean you’re a football player. If Licht takes him he should be fired.
March 23rd, 2026 at 10:47 am
I like Sadiq. Don’t tell me what a team can’t do; tell me what it +can+ do.
March 23rd, 2026 at 10:56 am
It’s not an exaggeration to say special teams cost us 2 victories
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:00 am
Both starting Guards are oming off knee injuries and Mauch is coming off major knee surgery and the Bucs currently do not have capable backups
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:02 am
Always look forward to the Sage. Sage, hope the cataract surgery went well because you must have been blind after our 6-2 start. After the ninth game we played the Patriots in game 10. We threw three touchdown passes and had zero turnovers. Our defense allowed 4 TD’s of 55 to 80 yards, it was said that NO NFL defense had done that in over 20 years. Game 11. Josh Allen had 6!! total touchdowns. My Gosh!! And we scored 32 points! Game11. The worst defensive performance I’ve ever seen in my entire life as the Rams hung touchdowns every single time they touched the ball the first half and they would have done the same in the second half if not for McVay’s respect for Bowles and Mayfield. The last 6 games, Ira, we had two monsoon rain games where our vaunted defense couldn’t begin to stop the superstars Ewers and Shough. One game that was definitely the Offenses fault was the 3rd and 28 game when Mike had come back and hung 135 yards. We led 28-14 early in the 4th quarter and the Falcons scored 3 times. Baker should never have had to throw another pass but when he got one picked it certainly was a given that Atlanta would drive 70 yards with that one turnover. Bowles game planning infected Grizzards play calling last year also, and the offensive injuries were the most limiting factor in our disappointing season. But to sum it up Ira. Your article is a waste of good paper. To “ blame” our offense for the season that was is insulting to real football fans. Like me. It’s our defense that has screwed us all 3 seasons I’ve been a fan. Because our talent has gone to the offense. And Ira. Pick a tight end with our first pick? Hurry up and write us another story please. I’m hoping they didn’t screw up that eye surgery and gave you a lobotomy instead. It happens.
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:12 am
You dont OVER PICK simply to fill a hole. In the first round, you get the best PLAYER. You dont pick a linebacker or edge with a bottom first round or top of the second round grade over a tight end that can add a whole new dimension to the offense. You win by scoring more points than the other team, and the Bucs offense wasn’t exactly great last year either. Would it be preferrable that we draft Bain and freaking Sonny Styles – sure. No crap, but value matters, and the directive is getting game changers. The actual REALITY is that we arent going to cover up every known deficiency to our liking in one off season
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:19 am
Alanbucsfan Says:
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:00 am
Both starting Guards are oming off knee injuries and Mauch is coming off major knee surgery and the Bucs currently do not have capable backups
BINGO!!!!!
and folks laugh when i say Kadyn Proctor from Bama should be our first selection next month
i say select Kadyn Proctor/OG in the 1st AND Josh Braun/OG in the 5th…
GO BUCS!!!!!
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:22 am
Ira is such a Bowles apologist.
Todd thought he was gonna change OCs again, go with a green guy and expect around 29 pts/game?
At what point did he know Grizz was a couple years away, cause at that point his D better pick up the slack.
The most damning part of this article is saying the D was slightly worse in 2025 than 2024. Somehow his D got healthier, added a couple players up front and was starting players in the secondary with some kind of pedigree instead of Hayes and Funderbunk and Todd couldn’t make it any better.
The Bucs HC and DC folks! *applause*
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:24 am
sadly, Baker and his 4th quarter INTs are to blame!!!!
only way to fix that is by improving the run game with a 1st round OG selection!!!!
but yeah, select a TE, improve the defense and watch Baker run for his life behind MJ, Klein, Haggard, Freeney lol
GO BUCS!!!!
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:24 am
Good article.
I’m a firm believer in BPA at a position of need…but…considering hte BPAs usually fall on the offensive side, at some point you just HAVE to draft defense in the first round.
The time and need is now.
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:25 am
813bucboi Says:
“sadly, Baker and his 4th quarter INTs are to blame!!!!”
I agree, but I also look at what caused them.
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:26 am
Saskbucs Says:
“Ira is such a Bowles apologist.”
All Ira is saying is that it wasn’t JUST Bowles…and he’s right.
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:33 am
Sage,why do you call Bowles a defensive minded coach. If he was a defensive minded coach , why does this defense suck so bad.
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:37 am
It’s time to start speaking the truth about Bowles.
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:39 am
Ioane
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:49 am
when talking about the defense one must mention the bad teams in the division. rams could have scored 50 if they wanted to.. josh allen had 6tds. panthers and saints games were in a downpour. lions took foot off the gas. lets not sugar coat the defense. seahawks moved it at will. bourne on 49ers had 140yds receiving. miamis backup took the defense to school
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:03 pm
8 wins, 15 takeaways to 2 giveaways which is a +13 TO margin in our wins combined. Which, sounds even better when you realize those takeaways happened in just 6 of 8 games.
In those 8 games we averaged 21.1* ppg. We had a single-game a high score of 38 points and a low score of 16 points. Our opponents averaged 21 ppg, with a high of 35 and a low of 3 points.
(*= Average includes 12 points scored on defense)
9 losses, 14 giveaways to 8 takeaways which is a -6 TO margin in those 9 games combined. Which sounds even worse considering we turned the ball over at least once in 8 of our 9 losses. While 5 of those 8 games we committed at least 2 or more turnovers.
In those 9 games we averaged 20.1 ppg with a single game high of 32 points and a single game low of just 7. Our opponents averaged 28.5* ppg with single-game high of 44 points and a single-game low of 20 points.
(*= includes 12 points scored off blocked kicks)
Punted 34 times combined in our 8 wins and 29 times combined in our 9 losses excluding 2 of our punt attempts being block. So, you factor in the giveaways to the punts in our wins and losses, we gave the ball back 36 times in our wins without scoring and 43 times in our 9 losses, without scoring.
I know the common theme is “defense bad, defense badder” but our offense, was crap, and just getting healthier is only part of our problem moving in this upcoming season.
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:10 pm
Oxycondomns Says:
March 23rd, 2026 at 11:49 am
when talking about the defense one must mention the bad teams in the division. rams could have scored 50 if they wanted to.. josh allen had 6tds. panthers and saints games were in a downpour. lions took foot off the gas.
*************************************************************
Blame the defense all you want but its tough to win when your QB is giving the other team extra chances to cash in!!!!
Josh Allen had 6 TDs LARGE part because of Bakers INT AND FUMBLE that game…
Panthers and Saints game, Baker threw a 4th quarter INT in both of those games!!!…just as he did in the ATL game
Lions game…YEP baker started off slow and things never got better…plus he threw an INT in that game as well….
Baker and his TOs are the problem!!!
Baker threw a 4th quarter INT in 4 straight games in the month of DEC with our playoff hopes on the line and folks want to blame the defense lol….
GO BUCS!!!!!!
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:20 pm
As far as the offense goes, they relied on Baker way too much in those first 8 games. He was like Houdini at times and got real banged up. Baker has a huge heart and isn’t afraid to take on a linebacker or cornerback. However, that does not spell out long term success for the Bucs team. The Bucs have to get back to running the ball behind that offensive line if they stay healthy. As far as the defense goes, the Bucs can’t win a Super Bowl without a top 10 defense. I don’t see that happening with Todd Bowles running the defense. Let’s hope they bring in Tony Dungy as a special assistant to Bowles, kind of like Tom Moore was to the offense.
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:26 pm
i click submit comment and it does nothing, lol
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:33 pm
So ridiculous – a TE at #15. Sure.
And then let’s add a new speedy X WR in RD2. Then add an additional RB in RD3. In RD4 we should add a new punter and a long snapper in RD5, a return man in RD6 and then an assistant to the equipment manager in RD7.
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:36 pm
I’m more excited about the potential that Gainwell offers this offense. Flexibility.
Sure, a 4.39 TE can make some offensive minds drool; rightly so. But what are the bigger needs of the team to construct a more well-rounded and competitive TEAM?
(Clue: Defense. It’s the defense. Them defenders, they need talent.)
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:43 pm
Ira o usually don’t disagree with and I don’t totally now. However, you can’t deny 3-28, which you can argue the Bucs are in worse shape on defense. Ira, take a look at the now starting corners!!!. Yes could be the worst in the league and they would not start on even a better than average defense. Do they get better maybe but huge gamble. Then no edge rush. Ira I know you don’t expect the new guy to come in and be more than a good rotational player. If he does great, but the Bucs aren’t winning those as of late. Then the LBs, need I say more. So as much as I would love to see a stud TE, the defense is just in shambles and really arguably is no better than last year. Yes if we can score 40 points a game with our offense with the TE sure, but again another gamble.
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:51 pm
Not sold on drafitng a TE early Ira. OJ Howard was a Huge mistake. He looked like a can’t miss but at 19 you gottta be sure. Not convinced any TE should go that high…Well maybe Gronk should have but…2nd round. At 15 we need to fill our LB hole.
Go Bucs!
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:52 pm
“BPA” works better at the back half of the draft than it does in the top 100, and using it in the top-100 means it’s factored in with the needs of the team in mind. Being that all 32 times don’t all have the same exact needs, though there is overlap because NFL rosters are all constructed based on have and have nots.
The Raiders are picking Mendoza with Jeanty already a on the roster, so BPA doesn’t mean drafting Jerimiyah Love first overall in their case even if he is a “better” football player than Mendoza.
Just like if there’s an OT available at 15th overall, we won’t pick him even if he stacks up better than the talent at other positions and can be deemed as BPA.
It’s not pin the tail on the donkey, no team is just just blindly spending picks without the pick having anything to do with what their team needs. Sort of like us drafting Sadiq, and for all this “he’s the same size as Evans” cool, but how often in his collegiate career was he releasing off the LOS having to beat a CB1 or CB2 with his route tree? That answer alone is enough to say why he isn’t Mike Evans, or how superficial that comparison sounds.
March 23rd, 2026 at 12:54 pm
Appreciate the perspective, Ira [as always]. If Sadiq = Vernon Davis or better…then Licht will look like a hero down the road. Concur about passion for football is key metric. What concerns me is whether Sadiq is THAT much better than TE’s available in round 4 (Sam Rouch, Oscar Delp, Max Clare…the other top TE’s can’t block their way out of a wet paper bag). then, factor in historical contributions by rookie TE’s. Will trust the process for the picks and cheer for whoever is on our roster.
Side Note on Most Productive Prospects at #15 for (almost) locks for immediate + long term quality Buccaneers that will start sooner or later in 2026 is what we want, right? Big Board for us IMHO: Sonny Styles, Bailey, Bain, Delane, Ioane, CJ Allen, Hill Jr, Sadiq, Jacob Rodriguez, Kayden McDonald (admittedly high on McDonald as I see terrific production AND massive potential both). Mesidor does have production so feel free to comment/note/profess preference as appropriate. I can’t talk myself into him for some reason.
March 23rd, 2026 at 1:06 pm
Drafting a TE in the first round is just as ridiculous as some are saying draft an O-Lineman in the first round.
Plus, we don’t use the TE position enough to justify drafting one that early.
Winston, oops I mean Baker, is trending downward and should not be resigned.
The defense is the obvious grand canyon like issue for this team. Draft defense early and often.
In the end it will not make a difference either way. Bowles sucks out loud at both his jobs.
March 23rd, 2026 at 1:14 pm
With needs at DT, ILB, MLB, CB, OL…. We should not only NOT draft Sadiq, we don’t need a TE at all in this draft. Need all of the above and some x 2. If we need speed at TE in our offense, Culp ran a 4.48 and was heavier than Sadiq when he did it. The difference in a 4.39 and a 4.48 is not even measurable on the field. If we need blocking , we have Cade,Ko, and Payne.
March 23rd, 2026 at 1:22 pm
This brings back memories of the same exact thing OJ Howard and cam Brate. Otton is brate and oj is Shaq haha