Bucs Running Backs Did Better Than Expected (No, Really)
June 23rd, 2026
RB Bucky Irving.
No, Joe isn’t talking about dumb EPA.
Joe learned in high school that numbers can be twisted any which way to prove a point. So whenever Joe hears the statgeeks rattle off a stat named “expected” or “adjusted,” Joe’s brain immediately switches off. <click>
Now if you watched each Bucs game, you likely thought the Bucs were rank when it came to running the ball last season. But it may not be that bad.
Per stathead Ian Hartitz, the Bucs “ranked” 11th in the NFL. Granted, Hartitz used an average of handpicked stats (see Joe’s previous paragraph on twisting numbers). But what Hartitz did unearth is how opposing defenses viewed targeting Bucs running backs attack in the pass game.
An example of this was in Week 4 against Philadelphia, a good defense, Bucky Irving was wide ass open on his 72-yard catch-and-run down the left sideline.
Joe is surprised the Bucs ranked No. 18 in the league in yards before contact. As awful as the Bucs’ backup guard play was, and the number of games without tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, being almost middle of the pack in the NFL is surprisingly good.
Or at least better than expected.
June 23rd, 2026 at 10:04 am
A pig who wears lipstick is still a pig. Better suited for Pinkertons .
June 23rd, 2026 at 11:04 am
If healthy, this new Zac offense will let the Rb group shine. Healthy means the RBs and most of the OL. We should have better depth at OL with added pcs and experience that many backups got last year
June 23rd, 2026 at 11:18 am
We do NOT have a RB that will “always” get that crucial 2-3 yards.
June 23rd, 2026 at 11:34 am
We do, we just don’t give him the ball until somebody is hurt.
June 23rd, 2026 at 11:36 am
Remember first and goal at the 1 and failed 4 out of 5 attempts or so in 1 game? Yeah we were great. Lol
June 23rd, 2026 at 11:39 am
If you’re going down the road in your canoe and the wheels fall off, how many pancakes does it take to make a doghouse?
None, because ice cream has no bones.
That’s how much sense these stats make!
June 23rd, 2026 at 11:50 am
One thing I get out of this is we need to target our running backs more. It would further lower pressure on Mayfield. The other is with our guards in we will easily be top 5 in yards before contact. I also thought Atlanta’s offensive line was better than this but apparently Bijan Robinson is just *that good*.
June 23rd, 2026 at 12:02 pm
Joe, “expected” usually just means “on average” and adjusted is often just the difference between some instance and some average. Yes, lots of stats can be twisted. But honestly almost any useful stat is either an expected value or else is differenced from an expected value. So maybe don’t just filter on that? When you see “expected” just think some sort o average and when you see “adjusted” just think relative to some sort of average, then look to see if the specific stat makes sense in the specific case. Sometimes it does not. Sometimes it does.
June 23rd, 2026 at 12:38 pm
RE: 3.28: A troll who changes their name constantly is still a troll!
June 23rd, 2026 at 1:39 pm
I’m telling ya… Been saying it! That Bucs O-Line really impressed me last season with how well they held up under the circumstances. They were NOT a bad offensive line. Definitely, nowhere NEAR the worst. We had a Quarterback who was inaccurate, made poor decisions, could not read defenses pre snap, and head into the ball for way too long. They gave him a clean pocket, with PLENTY of time to throw it! This O-Line just got a BAD rap for various reasons, but it wasn’t based on the ‘reality’ of their overall PLAY. It was just based on assumptions and EXCUSES (for Baker’s poor play). They were just an easy target. But, we also lacked EXPLOSIVENESS. We don’t have any ELITE Playmakers, and it shows in the “before contact” rankings. Then, you throw in them deciding to continue FEEDING Bucky the ball, when old RWhite was CLEARLY the better, and more ‘explosive’ running back last season. But, he rarely touched it. Not even in the passing game, when he is at his best.
June 23rd, 2026 at 1:45 pm
There are very few “PERFECT” Offensive Lines to begin with in the league, and THIS “Bucs O-Line” at least gave them a CHANCE. You really can’t ask for anything more than that. They did THEIR job.
June 23rd, 2026 at 2:01 pm
@ 74 Bucs Fan Says: “Remember first and goal at the 1 and failed 4 out of 5 attempts or so in 1 game? Yeah we were great. Lol”
That’s a lot more to do with the play-calling. Too Predictable. They came out and just lined up in the exact same formation (TIGHT), and they run the play clock all the way down, & then straight up the GUT and into a WALL. It was sooo hard to watch. PATHETIC. Then, they might try to go “quick” one-time, but with the exact SAME result… Ran straight-up there to the line, just to THEN ‘run-it’ straight into them out of a SUPER ‘TIGHT’ formation. It’s just not going to work in THIS LEAGUE. It’s just way too PREDICTABLE. They did it ALL YEAR.
June 23rd, 2026 at 2:02 pm
ZERO motion, or ANYTHING.
June 23rd, 2026 at 2:14 pm
@ Stpetematt Says: “apparently Bijan Robinson is just *that good*.”
Well, YEAH. Duh. I mean, it took THIS list for you to have just figured this out!? I believe even a half ‘blind person’ outta one eye, could’ve SEEN THIS in under 5-minutes. So, talkin bout the biggest understatement of the day… “Apparently!?” He is an ELITE of the ELITE Playmakers in THE LEAGUE.
June 23rd, 2026 at 2:28 pm
WOW. The NFL just completely shut the door on the the entire Sorsby saga, until the 2027 Draft. The 2026 “Supplemental Draft” is now CANCELED. Don’t blame them one bit. The very last thing the NFL needs right now, is all the BAD press that would come along wit it.. Having to constantly answer questions about it, & etc. A real smart move on their part. It gives Sorsby time to work on HIMSELF, which he obviously NEEDS. Cody Campbell’s STILL giving him his $5-MIL, and allowing him to keep it anyway!!!! Campbell KNOWS he put him in a HORRIBLE spot to begin with. Just used the kid. Someone HAS TO put Cody Campbell on ICE. He is absolutely DESTROYING College Football by himself, AND he’s trying to screw over THE SEC and BIG10 with this CORRUPT Bill in Congress. The SEC and BIG10 has to get ALL of their Senators on board, or ELSE. There has to be BIG CHANGES to this current proposed “BILL.” It’s complete BS in it’s current form. You CAN’T have that type of “Bill” without THE SEC and BIG10 having the most input. There is A LOT of jealously. It’s like, Washington State (and others) are just trying to STICK IT to THE SEC and BIG10, over hurt feelings.
June 23rd, 2026 at 2:30 pm
WOW. The NFL just completely shut the door on the the entire Sorsby saga, until the 2027 Draft. The 2026 “Supplemental Draft” is now CANCELED. Don’t blame them one bit. The very last thing the NFL needs right now, is all the BAD press that would come along wit it.. Having to constantly answer questions about it, & etc. A real smart move on their part. It gives Sorsby time to work on HIMSELF, which he obviously NEEDS. Cody Campbell’s STILL giving him his $5-MIL, and allowing him to keep it anyway!!!! Campbell KNOWS he put him in a HORRIBLE spot to begin with. Just used the kid. Someone HAS TO put Cody Campbell on ICE. He is absolutely DESTROYING College Football as we know it!!!!