Preventing Another Cliff Dive
January 19th, 2026
Still a solid QB.
As Joe pointed out yesterday, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is a third-down baller.
Now Joe would like to see more of that third-down baller magic transfer from Mayfield’s legs to Mayfield’s right arm.
When the season began, Mayfield played better than any Bucs quarterback not named “Tom Brady.” By the end of the season, Mayfield was giving off Josh McCown vibes.
It was a stunning collapse. Still, Jeff Howe of The Athletic thinks Mayfield is a top-15 quarterback despite the drop off a cliff after the Bucs’ bye.
Biggest midseason faller
Baker Mayfield emerged as the first trendy MVP candidate of the season, and he remained in the mix until injuries took their toll, and the Buccaneers collapsed down the stretch.Mayfield debuted at No. 8 and got to as high as No. 3 from Weeks 6-10 before a gradual regression and steep decline by the end. Mayfield was a top-nine QB through Week 16, but a lethargic finish doomed his final ranking.
Since the dropoff happened, the Bucs have been extremely tight-lipped about what happened. So what are/were the Bucs hiding?
Are they freaked out Mayfield has reverted to Cleveland Mayfield? Are they trying to hide injuries? Were they trying to protect Josh Grizzard? Why the Manhattan Project-like secrecy?
As the creator, curator and overall guru of Pro Football Talk, the great Mike Florio likes to say, “Silence invites speculation.”
Joe asked Bucs coach Todd Bowles in his season wrapup if the offense changed due to Mayfield’s injuries, meaning did Grizzard suddenly go full-blown turtle/screen-pass-heavy because Mayfield couldn’t throw downfield?
Bowles said no, but Joe doesn’t fully buy that.
Are the Bucs scared to admit they let Mayfield take the field when he shouldn’t have, being otherwise too beat-up to play, because they didn’t trust Teddy Bridgewater?
If that’s the case, it’s understandable how an organization would embarrassed.
January 19th, 2026 at 7:02 am
Draft Diego Pavia in 2nd round.
January 19th, 2026 at 7:19 am
I’m a fan because he’s shown what he can do under Coens direction and of all the Bucs options post Brady he was the best option. That being said if you watched any playoff games you could see the difference between Stafford, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye arm strength vs Bakers. Those dudes threw darts 30-40 yards down field in bad weather. Maybe 2027 we can find That Dude! It’s always about that franchise QB pick.
January 19th, 2026 at 7:25 am
@Todd
Diego Pavia is gonna be going later than that. Probably at least 4th round.
January 19th, 2026 at 7:47 am
Joe you almost gave hope. When I read the title I thought Todd was fired. SMH
January 19th, 2026 at 7:51 am
Nice Manhattan Project analogy. We said.
January 19th, 2026 at 7:53 am
were going to be so bad next year- do you see these playoff teams? they would kill us!!
January 19th, 2026 at 8:01 am
I’ve seen baker shine and regress. Is it about talent? Or coaching? Or injuries? I believe it more about coaching, with injuries compounding the situation.
I’m sure the baker haters will jump on the talent aspect as the main reason.
I’ll add that when you don’t believe your defense can stop the opposing team, you will probably try risky throws, knowing that a one -score lead won’t stand up.
January 19th, 2026 at 8:06 am
We need to have quality backups at every position group. As for the backup QB,
I am inclined to believe Todd pushed for Bridgewater like he did for Mayfield. We desperately need an experienced OC that has experience and knowledge to be a sounding
board for Bowles and Licht. The addition of Bridgewater and Reddick look pretty bad in retrospect. Makes me wonder if licht needs a replacement for Spytec to make wise personnel decisions.
January 19th, 2026 at 8:08 am
Caleb also threw 3 “darts” to the other team. He is not that dude…yet
January 19th, 2026 at 8:15 am
Its so plain to see that Baker played at his level during the 2-7 stretch to end the season. He was healthy and so were his WRs but he couldn’t execute. Its that simple.
Its not like Baker was throwing 4 TDs a game to start the season, he was just clutch on those final drives due to him playing mistake free.
I’m curious as to what the narratives will be when Baker plays the exact same way or worse this upcoming season. Do you think Baker can use injuries, or OC or HC or the organization as to why he isn’t successful….again?
Baker is on his 4th team and this is his 4th season with the Bucs and the same excuses the media gave him in Cleveland hes got here. Rinse and repeat. He’s running out of time, with the Bucs at least. This is probably his last season with the Bucs since they’ll probably look to get younger at key positions.
January 19th, 2026 at 8:17 am
I would also like to see Keith Tandy get a chance at special teams if he is still with the team. In is playing days coaches said he was smart and like a coach on the field.
January 19th, 2026 at 8:19 am
Dont know why in the world they got Teddy.
January 19th, 2026 at 8:25 am
The Bucs need a bonafide backup qb. Bowles is not going to say that Grizz intentionally went turtle because Baker was hurt which could be true but it could also be that Bowles wanted Grizz to win the time of possession battle to keep his defense off of the field. Purplebeard also has a great point about Baker forcing plays because he did not trust the D. This is also the reason why the Bucs drained the clock before half in their final game and settled for a FG as they knew Carolina would score if they left any time on the clock. Bowles had Grizz change his offense to help his bad D but he would not change his own schemes due to either lack of talent, inabilty and/or indifference.
January 19th, 2026 at 8:26 am
The problem was, is and will remain Todd Bowles. IMHO, he isn’t trustworthy enough to believe what he says. They don’t want to admit they made a huge blunder in getting a washed up Bridgewater over Trask as the backup. If you want to credit Bowles with getting Baker, I have to believe he was responsible for Teddy, too.
January 19th, 2026 at 8:29 am
Bob in Valrico. Why didn’t they promote Tandy mid season if he could do the job? McGaughey could have got launched like Smitty. Another mistake by Bowles, too loyal to a friend?
January 19th, 2026 at 8:31 am
Baker is our guy through and through.
FortMyersDave – Agreed, a solid backup QB is needed.
January 19th, 2026 at 8:40 am
Fire Todd
January 19th, 2026 at 8:43 am
Anyone doubting Mayfield injuries should watch the laser darts that Baker threw to Egbuka in the first game vs ATL. Two perfect TD passes deep in the end zone for TD’s. Shoulder injury to an athlete are like no other. The pain is intense. Doesn’t matter if it is the throwing arm or not. Any quick motion sets off a chain reaction of pain. Shouldn’t surprise anyone that Mayfield was willing to play through the pain. He is a tough guy who just tries to push through.
January 19th, 2026 at 8:58 am
The Bucs are presently failing/wasting Baker just like the Browns did in 2021. It’s a team problem and possibly an organizational one. Quarterbacks can’t do it by themselves. CJ Stroud played brilliantly in 2023 as a rookie but the Texans failed to upgrade the offensive line and they paid the price yesterday. Stroud can’t do it himself. Drake Maye was ok as a rookie and the Patriots went nowhere. They made all the right moves this year starting with Vrabel and now the Patriots look like they’re going to win it all. They are a complete team with no obvious flaws in any phase of the team. They have replicated the Belichick model. No stone unturned.
January 19th, 2026 at 9:01 am
Bee. You absolutely don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. Not even close. His last season with the Bucs? You know nothing of what you speak. The only question is how much of a discount will Baker give the team. And I bet it won’t be squat. And the Glazer’s won’t be batting an eye at whatever the amount may be. Baker’s always been a touchdown maker. And a head coach maker. But mainly he’s a money maker. The franchise values a money maker, don’t you reckon? I’m thinking the Glazers have one main goal right now. That is to make sure the goose that lays the golden egg is staying in Tampa. He gets the biggest check the Glazers write every month. And he’s far and away their biggest return on investment. And he’s fixing to get about twice that amount of money. Because the Glazers, like many others who know things, know that Baker is a bargain at twice the price.
January 19th, 2026 at 9:08 am
The first part of the season, they were playing Liam Coen’s offense. Baker was given leeway to call plays and change it up. then Grizz got comfortable and receivers returned and other teams figured out our predictable offense. No option plays, no RPO’s, ALWAYS running on first. Grizz used Rashaad less than he should’ve and teams figured out how to blow by Bucky so Bucky was no help at all with blitzes. Bucky not strong enough to be a Kyren Williams nor an emmitt smith so his upside is limited.
January 19th, 2026 at 9:16 am
I’m going to go with @Bee for this discussion. For those that are paying attention, he’s got it right, and you’re welcome to keep the receipts.
Facts are, Baker is who he is. He’s the consummate underdog and he thrives in that space. Simply put, don’t expect anything from him and he’ll win you a game, but ID him as the MVP and/or favorite and the guy can’t seem to find that next gear. This has been Baker throughout his career. Even 2024 when he had a solid season, we lost games because we couldn’t get 6 and we settled for 3, and blame that on whoever you want, but Baker is the guy under center, who fans think we should be extending him for $50M+ … he’s got to fall on that sword a bit when the offense under achieves.
Fans on here are holding onto the 1 season under Coen in 2024, and just when you think Baker was king building, both former OCs have done just fine without Baker. What I found with Baker, as the line doesn’t hold up, and he’s hearing footsteps, he becomes a first read passer, and it don’t matter if Mike Evans is tripled covered. How many times did we see Otton open on a replay, or White as the check down with days to run if Baker gets him the ball, and yet when you’re in the pinch, Baker is going to go with who he thinks is his best chance to make a play. If that first read is too muddy, once he double clutches, he’s looking to run with it.
Baker is our guy for now, but I’m going to tell you Bucs fans, whether it’s Bowles or any other coach we get, Baker isn’t going to win spit for us. He needs an absurdly good team to hide his obvious deficiencies.
January 19th, 2026 at 9:16 am
Injuries. Bad blocking. Bad play calling. A TE with no wheels and brick fingers. And then injuries to his shoulder. His knee. And God knows where else he was hurting.
Tell me how many sacks they avoided by his ability to move in the pocket. Brady would have been sacked 20 times more.
Who would be surprised that Mayfield regressed with that?
Baker should be given an award for perseverance.
January 19th, 2026 at 9:19 am
A healthy Bridgewater is better than an injured Baker. There’s definitive proof , simply watch the 2025 Mayfield after the bye week and as a bonus watch him play in Cleveland while injured.
Message to Todd, if you want to destroy your legacy as a coach, if you do it again 2026 you will be fired
January 19th, 2026 at 9:27 am
Does anyone else find it funny that several coaches who are considered greater than Bowles have been jettisoned and the Bucs stand for mediocrity?
January 19th, 2026 at 9:33 am
Btw, those fans that are clamoring for a quality backup. Man, if you get a chance there’s a podcast that had Manning and Brady on it, they were there to select their mount Rushmore of receivers, well prior to their selections they spent the first 10 minutes talking about the quality of QB we’re getting in the NFL. The college game leaking into the pro game, combined that with the NIL has essentially regressed the quality of quarterbacks we see coming to the NFL.
To point of needing a quality backup QB, we simply don’t have enough quality starters let alone quality backup QBs, and a lot of that has to do with where the college game is at now. Not too long ago, it wasn’t unheard of for a back QB to overtake the starter. Or drafting a QB and sitting them behind a veteran for a few years before taking over. That’s not even a thing anymore. The biggest benefit that both those great QBs talked about on the pod was that they as college players had coaching continuity. The NIL, and player transfers almost make it impossible to have continuity. The game then gets dumbed down in many ways to accommodate the skill set.
January 19th, 2026 at 9:39 am
@Zoocomics is in here cookin this morning
No, he and I aren’t the same person, you nimrods
January 19th, 2026 at 9:43 am
He needs a great offensive line to be good. Pressure up the middle made him a spasmodic player
January 19th, 2026 at 9:44 am
Old school; you can say what u want about Baker, but his arm strength is not one of his faults..Height compared to other QBs I’ll give u…He also has the fire and competitive spirit that ranks up there with the best
January 19th, 2026 at 10:00 am
First of all, NO QB, including all-world Patrick Mahomes or 2023 Tom Brady succeeds unless his o-line is absolutely solid. That’s just fact – whether you guys like it or not. Our 5 starters played exactly ZERO games together this year… And for most of the season we had at least 2 backups playing…
Did injuries affect Baker? Most likely yes.
Did poor play calling affect Baker? Most certainly.
Does Baker press and try to make plays he probably should not because he does not trust the defense? ABSOLUTELY!
Did not having a capable backup affect the coaching choices? Probably not as much as you would think.
IF you want 2024 Baker back, fix the o-line depth (we desperately need a decent backup guard, consider swapping Barton and Bredeson, and develop Chukwuma). Do what you have to to lure Mike McDaniel to take over the offense. And find a better backup than Teddy B.
BUT, the #1 thing you need to do is DRAFT 2 LINEBACKERS, FIND an EDGE RUSH, and figure out how to light a fire on the defense, which is just plain SOFT, SOFT, SOFT.
January 19th, 2026 at 10:10 am
So the criticism i read,a lot about the Bucs,QB here is choking in big games. Man this past weekend was a big game QB choke a thon. Allen for the bills ha 4 turnovers,and lost anothef playoff ot. Williams for bears had 3 interceptions including one in sudden death over time. Stafford had a fumble but got it back. Texans QB had 4 turnover but was beaten by Drake with five who somehow broke his ankle on a kneel down to set up the winning FG in the Center of the field. The lesson here is have,a competent backup QB or two as Peyton is not fazed and feels comfortable with the the backup. Bakers former backup finally got a playoff win.
January 19th, 2026 at 10:16 am
Allen lofton i disagree Bongwater just socks,whether healthy or not. We should go after Pickens or The 49ers backup.
January 19th, 2026 at 10:22 am
@Fort Myers Dave
Agree and in the Logan Hall article he had excuses and praise for some of his players. Some of which had me scratching my head.
January 19th, 2026 at 10:36 am
@zoonomics
Good point about depth, especially at backup QB.
I’ve said this before but a backup QB under Bowles is a wasted roster spot. Unless the starter is on a stretcher Bowles won’t take him out. Baker won’t sit himself down so we’ll get what we get when he’s “injured”. And I put that in quotes since most players play hurt.
Bowles signed Teddy to get his friend a paycheck not so he could actually help the team. SR asked Teddy if he wanted to win a chip and he responded that it wasn’t that important and hes here to help in any way he can. 😒 These are the types of players Todd likes…