Prediction Markets And NFL Coaches
January 7th, 2026
Percentages.
Predictions markets are the new legalized gambling.
What are prediction markets? Places like Kalshi and Polymarket will let people wager on damn near anything, in all 50 states. Sports, news, music, rasslin,’ you name it.
Crazy stuff too, like, “Will the United States seize the Panama Canal?”
And yes, NFL predictions are part of all this. Take Kalshi, for example. Yesterday, Kalshi placed the chance the Bucs move on from Todd Bowles at 33 percent.
This was slightly higher than the percentage Baltimore would can John Harbaugh.
We all know what happened last night.
Joe hasn’t checked Kalshi this morning but Joe wonders what the percentages are now for the Bucs and Bowles?
Most Likely NFL Coaches to be fired this offseason, per Kalshi:
33% — Todd Bowles
28% — John Harbaugh
21% — Aaron GlennWho’s getting sacked? pic.twitter.com/JBIbK3SzMi
— Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) January 6, 2026
January 7th, 2026 at 9:03 am
Todd must have naughty pictures of one of the glazer boys lol
GO BUCS!!!!
January 7th, 2026 at 9:05 am
I think the Glazers were working on something for a while and when Harbaugh became available they had to re-evaluate. They don’t do 2 things:
Appear to make snap decisions
Let anyone outside The Pentaverat know what they’re doing.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:06 am
I would take Harbaugh and Monken over Todd right about now. The crows had an awful start to the season. They never once looked like they gave up on the season or looked lethargic as we did this year. Harbaugh’s worst year is still better than Bowles best year. I could live with that.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:09 am
Oh great, we will get 8-9 wins next year!
January 7th, 2026 at 9:11 am
The coaches at Plant High School would be an improvement over Bowles and his staff.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:14 am
Predictions market are the new lotto. A fool and their money….
January 7th, 2026 at 9:14 am
This is turning into the trade deadline all over again. Other teams seek improvement while the Bucs stand pat.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:15 am
Never forget that Ed Glazer (Fredo) gave us Greg Schiano.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:21 am
Harbaugh is a proven coach…he has won a super bowl and has connections with Jason Licht in his philly days back on the early 2000’s. Todd Moken was in the running for the OC job in Tampa last year and passed it up for the Ravens and Jackson at QB. This team has gone as far as its going to go with Gizzard at the OC and Bowles as the Head coach…..I watch this offense and Defense collapse after the bye week. Bowles lost this locker room and the players. I do not believe a rebooted Bowles team next year will make any dents in the playoffs or the NFC South. The Glazers are the best ownership in pro football, I believe they know the Tampa Bay fan base and realize we are not going to support a lack luster product on the field. We have suffered long and hard for decades and this fan base deserves nothing less than the best staff and players we can find. I believe Harbaugh would be a huge step up from Bowles who only has a super bowl ring because Arians is a legendary coaching mind. I saw a huge drop off after he left and we have not been back to form yet.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:24 am
Word is Bowles will get released later today.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:25 am
81% he’s gone on Kalshi
January 7th, 2026 at 9:29 am
Kalshi has Todd jumping to 81% chance as of this morning…
January 7th, 2026 at 9:29 am
That last presser by the fraud was the last straw for me. What an arrogant desperate man. The Glazers are absolute fools for giving him an extenstion for no reason whatsoever last offseason. Morons.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:34 am
@KC Buc
88% now
January 7th, 2026 at 9:35 am
@KC Buc
Nevermind, I can’t read.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:42 am
I live in Baltimore since 2005…but grew up in Tampa in the 80s..90s..and early 2000s…im a ultra Tampa fan..point is since seeing the Slavens up close by default..john is mega overrated..he had lamar 8 plus years and literally has done nothing…same with Brady and Belicheat…the QBs carried these trash coaches..
HE MAKES HORRIBLE DECISIONS constantly…He literally the same as Bowles..
Most Tampa fans may not agree BUT IM FOCED TO HEAR BALTIMORE RADIO DAILY ETC…this guy is not the answer…HE WASTED LAMAR EVERY YEAR..tgey changed OCs many times and it never worked because of the HC..
Brian flores had vikings D electric…
We got a glimpse last year with coen on what we can be with PROPER COACHING…
January 7th, 2026 at 9:42 am
Hopefully odds are the Bucs get a better HC than the Falcons BUT I got a bad feeling the way the things have been with the Bucs lately, Falcons will get the better of the 2!
January 7th, 2026 at 9:42 am
@Baker Bowl
No worries! Reading is overrated – if we close our eyes and wish for Todd to be fired enough, we can get it to 88% or higher in no time!
Hopefully Glazers are just strategizing how to navigate the Rooney Rule requirements with a Harbaugh hire.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:45 am
Dolphins in touch with Harbaugh and Todd Monken meanwhile Tampa is satisfied with mediocre Bowles.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:48 am
88% is too low IMHO
January 7th, 2026 at 9:49 am
The portrayal of the Glazers and the Bucs shown in Raise the Flags doesn’t come close to agreeing with the actions of the current regime.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:52 am
Yeah, Raise the Flags seems more and more like political propaganda and basically Horse S—!!!
January 7th, 2026 at 9:53 am
Easy, people.
Gruden wasn’t fired until January 15th after the 2008 December swoon.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:56 am
I really don’t understand why BA gets such high praise from this organization. I mean without Brady we would have been stuck in the decades of darkness. He had no effect on Jameis before Brady got here and they were still playing undisciplined. mistake heavy football even when Brady was here. I mean he was supposed to be the QB whisperer but is seems like the only QB he whispered to was a 45+ year old GOAT?
January 7th, 2026 at 9:57 am
Tye Says:
January 7th, 2026 at 9:42 am
Hopefully odds are the Bucs get a better HC than the Falcons BUT I got a bad feeling the way the things have been with the Bucs lately, Falcons will get the better of the 2!
———————-
My fear as well. That ATL defense is stacked and young, Super Bowl caliber for sure.
Then you have a young Bijan and London on the offense with room to grow and attract veterans.
Bucs don’t have that kind of level of personnel currently, and with a QB approaching a contract year with a sub par performance, we’re looking more like the team to stay away from IMO
January 7th, 2026 at 9:59 am
Should be 100% in no time.
January 7th, 2026 at 9:59 am
What a hoot! Now it says Bowles has a 60% chance of being canned before september
January 7th, 2026 at 9:59 am
Tye Says:
January 7th, 2026 at 9:52 am
Yeah, Raise the Flags seems more and more like political propaganda and basically Horse S—!!!
I haven’t watched it and probably will never do so because just looking at the previews I got the same feeling
January 7th, 2026 at 10:02 am
Curse of Gruden and Tye: the way Malcolm Glazer handled things and his kids do seem to be a lot different with the exception that they both want to maximize coin. I am guessing that they figure with home games against teams like the Steelers and Packers will ensure at least 2 sellouts so they might be okay if a ton of us fans cancel our season tickets over Bowles as they have other avenues for coin. If fan sentiment mattered one iota to the Glazers, Bowles would have been fired one minute after the Falcons/Saints game went final.
January 7th, 2026 at 10:13 am
Monken was great with Stetson Bennett he would do awesome with Baker
January 7th, 2026 at 10:14 am
This is just how this family group of owners operates. They fired Gruden like two weeks after the season was done. Bowles isnt safe until the divisional round of the playoffs.
January 7th, 2026 at 10:22 am
FIRE HIM OR YOU WILL LOSE YOUR FAN BASE QUICKLY
January 7th, 2026 at 10:24 am
You guys really need to stop talking about the coach and start talking about the players…so
Ridiculous….what happens when we get this supposed next great coach and nothing
Changes because we still have the same players…the talent on this team is lacking…
January 7th, 2026 at 10:24 am
It’s at 60 percent right now
January 7th, 2026 at 10:25 am
Glazers have to get a lot of ducks in a row before making a move. I believe they still must satisfy the Rooney rule even if they know they want Harbaugh or anyone else.
January 7th, 2026 at 10:26 am
One thing I ve learned over the years with the Glazers is patience. And to me that’s a good thing so they don’t put themselves in a bind like the Raiders,Jets and Atlanta, replacing HC every 2 years. I understand the fans, I one of them like, darn what’s taking so long but in all it’s good
January 7th, 2026 at 10:31 am
I think an coach would be an improvement from the lame duck we currently have.
January 7th, 2026 at 10:52 am
I’d listen to Buccaneer56, his random and unnecessary praise of the Glazers as owners leads me to believe that Guy works at 1Buc place. Only real explanation fit that propaganda speak
January 7th, 2026 at 11:40 am
The Rooney Rule applies if the team decides to follow it. Lots of teams haven’t followed it and there was never a penalty. Worst case the owner gets fined.
January 7th, 2026 at 12:55 pm
I did not want Gruden fired.
I wanted Rah and Schiano fired but felt sad.
I was surprised Lovie was fired but happy.
I felt like Dirk could’ve been good with a proper defensive coordinator and could have lived with him another year.
I’ve never wanted anyone fired more than I want Bwloes fired. He deserves it. He’s earned it. I will dress in a grass skirt and dance the hula when it happens.
January 7th, 2026 at 2:17 pm
Majority of fans and speculation markets hit it. But why can’t the owners see he is a bad business decision. A lot of my friends are not getting season tickets to sit and endure horrible losses. It’s very disappointing and not good for the players or fans.
January 8th, 2026 at 7:07 am
How many more times do I have to explain that both guards out and replaced with third stringers or worse destroyed our team? We had our tackles out too several times but seemed to be a little better covering for that. Mayfield had no time to throw and no way to step into passes- especially on timing plays. And our running playbook was extremely limited to quick hitters. There were always 2+ players in the backfield in a second or two! Get a healthy O-line then see how we do with Grizzard. He never even got to use 90% of the playbook or more.
January 8th, 2026 at 7:13 am
A large percentage of our positive plays from scrimmage probably ended up as rollouts/pass rush evasions. Sure seemed like it!