Bucs A Leader In Havoc
December 20th, 2025
If you don’t count sacks.
Often when Joe discusses stats, Joe mentions being leery of stats that use “expected” (whose expectation?) or “adjusted.” That’s playing games with numbers.
As Joe learned in high school, one can twist numbers any which way to prove a point he or she wants to make.
Now Joe isn’t saying NFL stathead Ian Hartitz is trying to play games, but Hartitz’s stats for a made-up stat demonstrate what Joe is referring to. Hartitz cites a stat called “havoc.” Joe has heard of this stat, so Joe isn’t aware whether Hartitz hatched it or someone else.
Havoc, at least how Hartitz defines it, is when a defense gets a pressure, a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, a pick or a pass breakup. The bus rank sixth in the NFL in “havoc.”
Did you notice a stat that Hartitz left out? It probably is the biggest havoc play on defense outside of a takeaway. That would be a sack.
Nope, no sacks here. But if you did include sacks in Hartitz’s calculations, Joe is very confident the Bucs wouldn’t be anywhere close to No. 6 in the league.
See how someone can play with stats?
Top NFL defenses in "Havoc" which is the % of plays a defense gets a pressure, TFL, forced fumble, INT, or pass breakup:
1. Texans (43%)
2. Seahawks (42.7%)
3. Broncos (41.4%)
4. Chargers (41.3%)
5. Browns (41.1%)
6. Buccaneers (39.8%)
7. Jaguars (39.7%)
8. Patriots (38.7%)
9.…— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 18, 2025
December 20th, 2025 at 12:13 pm
Not much havoc caused on that 4th and long last week
December 20th, 2025 at 12:14 pm
I’m dubious of any stat that shows us near the top of the heap
December 20th, 2025 at 12:17 pm
Bucs rank 16th in sacks….middle of the pack…..not terrible….average
December 20th, 2025 at 12:17 pm
LOL!
December 20th, 2025 at 12:19 pm
49ers are at the Bottom in sacks …The stat that is important is Points allowed..That havoc stat is a great one ,only the Bucs are the outlier as the rest are all good defenses.,,Get 5 sacks but allow 30pts what good are they…The Bucs got a key sack vs Atlanta to cause 3rd and 28 how did that sack workout.Good defenses cause 3 and outs or allow maybe 1-2 first downs on a drive…Bowles defenses have always got sacks .
December 20th, 2025 at 12:21 pm
A sack falls under a TFL, he’s just bunching them together…so, yes, Bucs rank 6th
Now if you throw in rankings on 3rd and 14 plus…
December 20th, 2025 at 12:26 pm
Jordan .. Also Not all sacks are a TFL a split sack is not and a some sacks are 0 yds loss when the QB get back to the LOS.
December 20th, 2025 at 12:26 pm
Semi related
Braswell in the fourth (maybe it was the 3rd) caused a lot of pressure havoc for Cousins on an important drive for the falcons. He was purely edge rushing, creating containment and breaking down the pocket. It was honestly a great sight to see. Unfortunately, the success was quickly lost on the following drive when Braswell had to drop in coverage. The success was also stunted by our D giving the ball back to baker and the P and then failing to produce points. Maybe our defensive scheme would have been better with more points on the board (ie, being able to rush the passer more than going into turtle mode to protect against the pass)
I’m convinced when we get the correct defensive players at depth that we’re better in coverage, that this linebacker unit will shine. We have to find the right role players, right now we have great run stopping ability at that position, we need guys who can cover.
December 20th, 2025 at 12:27 pm
The Havoc plays are probably why we are 7-7 instead of 3n11
December 20th, 2025 at 12:30 pm
This type of measurement has to be balanced with a negative weight, in this case for big plays given up. The “Havoc” rankings do a fair job in that most of the teams we know to be strong are represented. But for example the Bucs earn their place through excess blitzing and other high risk tactics. We who follow Defense Rules — and the Joes in general — know how the team is giving up an unusual number of splash plays for both the run and the pass. And this “Havoc” stat mainly shows one part of a team defense “WAR” — and the Bucs are clearly below average in total average both in yards and points.
December 20th, 2025 at 12:34 pm
Imagine if they had an edge rusher?
December 20th, 2025 at 12:38 pm
Exactly. That hasn’t stopped Mr. Clean from having a decent defense. Not having an edge rush is not ideal. At all. Good coaches find a way to have at least a credible defense.
Generally, if you don’t have an edge rush, you are screwed.
December 20th, 2025 at 1:09 pm
Edge rushers help but not with this defense ..Until they shut down the middle of the field and underneath it will not matter on edge rush.
December 20th, 2025 at 1:17 pm
‘Pressure’ doesn’t mean anything if the play is successful and accomplishes its’ intended objective (convert a 3rd down to a 1st down or whatever). Thus ‘havoc’ is meaningless unless it prevents a play from being successful. Not sure where Ian Hartitz was trying to go with this one.
December 20th, 2025 at 1:30 pm
Bucs defense =mayhem
December 20th, 2025 at 1:33 pm
Fire Todd
December 20th, 2025 at 1:34 pm
Bucs are #1 in the league in havoc created amongst the fanbase.
December 20th, 2025 at 2:09 pm
Pressure is the only one of those stats that is impossible to quantify. I’m sure there are degrees of pressure no matter how you define a pressure and those varying degrees can make all the difference in the outcome of the play. A millisecond can make all the difference and that is impossible to calculate. There are different types of pressure also. Some pressures are of the slower and more gradual type where the blocker is walked back towards the quarterback. In that situation the quarterback can hang in there and make the throw.That’s a Bucs type of pressure. Then there is the dam break type where the defensive rusher manhandles the blocker and is in the quarterbacks face in no time. That’s the truly disruptive type and the kind that our line allows right now.
December 20th, 2025 at 2:20 pm
So called Pressure rate makes it impossible to reliably judge a quarterback’s performance under pressure as well . Time to throw, how often a quarterback is hit or sacked are the only reliable metrics to judge a quarterback’s performance under pressure.
December 20th, 2025 at 2:26 pm
They ‘stat’ everything.
December 20th, 2025 at 2:46 pm
4th and 28
December 20th, 2025 at 2:54 pm
3rd and 28. I’m pretty sure we could have stopped them on 4th and 28.
December 20th, 2025 at 2:56 pm
Well, fairly sure.
December 20th, 2025 at 3:13 pm
anyone miss the all pewter look?
December 20th, 2025 at 3:20 pm
We all know what’s coming at the conclusion of the season.
December 20th, 2025 at 3:27 pm
The only team in the NFC South that has real playoff experience is the Bucs. that includes doing what needs to be DONE to get into the playoffs. Carolina is up an coming, no doubt. but this is 2001 Saints at Bucs all over again. Bucs win big
December 20th, 2025 at 3:57 pm
Hmm. The Bears have added DL Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to the practice report. He missed practice for personal reasons. His absence was not injury related.
December 20th, 2025 at 4:00 pm
“See how someone can play with stats?”
Like when someone selectively posts stats that make the defense look as bad as possible while repeatedly giving the dysfunctional offense a pass ? Or takes a good defensive stat and shades it with a “but if” ? 🙈
December 20th, 2025 at 4:13 pm
In 14 games, Bucs have allowed 4156 passing yards, 24 passing TDs & 16 rushing TDs. We’ve gotten 33 sacks, 105 pressures, and our defense has gotten 12 INTs & recovered 8 fumbles. Extrapolate those to 17 games and that becomes 5,047 passing yds, 29 passing TDs allowed, 19 rushing TDs allowed, 40 sacks, 128 pressures, 15 INTs & 10 FRs. Assuming our current rankings hold, we’d be ranked #24 in Points Allowed, #9 in Rushing Yds Allowed, and #30 in Passing Yds Allowed. Compare those numbers with the Bucs’ stats from 2022 when Todd’s first became HC AND DC here …
o 2024: 4147 Pass Yds Allowed – 27 Pass TDs – 13 Rush TDs – 46 sacks – 175 Pressures – 7 INTs – 11 FRs – #16 in Points Allowed – #4 in Rushing Yds Allowed – #29 in Passing Yds Allowed
o 2023: 4232 Pass Yds Allowed – 23 Pass TDs – 11 Rush TDs – 47 sacks – 136 Pressures – 13 INTs – 13 FRs – #7 in Points Allowed – #5 in Rushing Yds Allowed – #29 in Passing Yds Allowed
o 2022: 3461 Pass Yds Allowed – 29 Pass TDs – 12 Rush TDs – 44 sacks – 144 Pressures – 10 INTs – 10 FRs – #13 in Points Allowed – #15 in Rushing Yds Allowed – #9 in Passing Yds Allowed
If trends hold, this’ll be the worst defense, by quite a bit, that we’ve fielded since Todd took the HC reins in 2022. In those years, we’ve had major personnel turnover, and it hasn’t benefitted us.
December 20th, 2025 at 4:29 pm
At least Falcons fans won’t rub that 3rd and 28 in our faces because it’s reminiscent of their 28-3 Super Bowl blunder.