Playoff Percentages For Bucs Still Favorable
December 3rd, 2025
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
Playoff hopes that were damn near a cinch a month ago have fallen off since the Bucs got slapped around for three straight losses, and then finally snapped the losing streak Sunday with an uninspiring, slogging three-point win over a team that has lost 9 of its last 10 games and is cruising toward a top-five draft pick.
Good thing the Bucs play in the NFC South and not in college football. North Texas and South Florida may have jumped the Bucs in the playoff rankings by now.
Alas, one reason the Bucs’ playoff chances have dropped is that the Stinking Panthers are making a real charge to take control of the NFC South.
On a bye this week, Carolina (7-6) is a half-game behind the Bucs on the heels of upsetting the Rams, the same team that absolutely seal-clubbed the Bucs a week ago.
* The Athletic put out their playoff predictor and they have the Bucs at 79 percent to make the playoffs.
* At BSPN, the Bucs also have a 79 percent shot of hosting a playoff game (by winning the sorry NFC South).
* NFL.com is a bit more kind to the Bucs. The league’s house organ has the Bucs at an 84 percent chance of playing in the postseason.
* Aaron Schatz, the inventor of DVOA and former chieftain of Football Outsiders (RIP) has the Bucs at an 83 percent chance of making the playoffs. Based on DVOA, naturally.
* And the website PlayoffStatus.com has the Bucs at 78 percent to make the playoffs.
(You don’t want to know what these sites have for the Bucs’ chances to win the Super Bowl.)
So yeah, the national data models say the Bucs will still make it. Perhaps they believe the Stinking Panthers will trip over themselves a few times in the final five games?
Now we need a Bucs Strongest Man competition 👀💪 pic.twitter.com/YIilpIaSu4
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 2, 2025
December 3rd, 2025 at 12:16 am
Sure we got shot for the playoffs, fellow buc fans say, yea but we’re 7-5 of course we have shot, but we can’t tackle. I never seen so many big plays as Bucs fan 20+ years it’s so bad. I feel like ok if you dropping Lb’s in coverage have the players who can do that. Dropping Ant Nelson is not healthy.
Where are our leaders on the field saying no more. When we watch the Bucs as fans rarely can we sit back and say we got this, it is always something.
December 3rd, 2025 at 12:17 am
Joe, for some reason Todd Bowles offseason “epiphany” keeps popping into my head. Whatever it was hasn’t seemed to flash just yet.
December 3rd, 2025 at 12:17 am
Hmm.
Rams clubbed the Bucs like Todd was a rented mule.
Canales beats the Rams with 31 points when Todd and a supposedly superior offense managed 7.
Seems like Carolina is the one with the 79% chance of winning the division unless there is a dramatic and unexpected intervention with the Loafaneers head coich/defenseless curdinator / deer-in-headlights Gizzard / Mr Magoo. These hippodreciians are trying to be a stellar quartet with a trio of pablum spewers.
December 3rd, 2025 at 12:18 am
That vid is great. The article about playoff chances pfffft. Doesn’t matter. They gotta win more than Carolina, which looks like a crap shoot right now.
December 3rd, 2025 at 12:19 am
Dogs love treats.
December 3rd, 2025 at 12:19 am
Ice will melt.
December 3rd, 2025 at 12:20 am
Marsupials scare me.
December 3rd, 2025 at 12:29 am
Did the scenarios myself, and basically so long as the Bucs beat the Saints, if they split with the Panthers, they’re almost certainly.
If the Bucs lose both games to the Panthers, and yet win all their other games – then they are almost certainly out.
Personally, I assume the Bucs lose in Carolina, but it’s worth noting they won the last two years there, barely, but vs much worse Panthers teams. But if the Bucs lose that game, then likely it comes down to winner takes all to end the season – and frankly if the Bucs got swept by the Panthers, including losing a home game that decides if they go to the playoffs, then they shouldn’t be in.
But, again, still very much assume the Bucs are in – and frankly, coming off a huge win vs the Rams, going into a bye week, it shouldn’t shock me at all if the Panthers lose to the Saints. Not that I think the Panthers are bad, it’s just one of those things a young team tends to do. Sort of how I said last week I thought the Panthers would win vs the Rams — and then lose to the Saints. I got the first half right, hopefully I got the second half right as well.
December 3rd, 2025 at 12:50 am
There is no way the man in the photo at the top of the page can instill the urge for any of his players to dominate the man in front of him. Instead, he has them mentally cramped up with his Fugazi pyramid scheme for a defense. Deception and trickery. How about just brutalizing the man in front of you.
December 3rd, 2025 at 1:11 am
I think the Bucs squeak out wins the next two weeks because the ain’ts & fowlclowns suck. If we get Mike and McMillan back and ready to go for the last three games I like our chances.
GO BUCS
December 3rd, 2025 at 1:45 am
Bowles can prepare his team to outsuck anyone if Bowleszo were coaching in 2008 the 0-16 Detroit Lions wouldn’t have been winless. Expecting 7-7 after the next two games is a legitimate expectation. Todd’s Loafaneers.
December 3rd, 2025 at 2:16 am
Problem with Carolina is inconsistency. They beat the Rams but only scored 7 in a home loss to the Saints and also let the Cards beat them. In other words, Canales occasionally does not have his team ready to play. For that reason I expect the Bucs to sneak into the playoffs and promptly get run, just like last year. The Panthers are just the new ATL, not there yet but we as fans will be stuck with Bowles again if it plays out that way; stuck in a rut of mediocrity like the Steelers.
December 3rd, 2025 at 3:18 am
Aqualung … ‘How about just brutalizing the man in front of you.’
Wow, simplify the whole defensive scheme to ‘Just beat the crap out of the guy in front of you’ and we’ve got it. Talent? Nah, we don’t need talent; just physical brute strength. Coaching & adjustments? Pfft, unnecessary. Dominate the guy in front of you & all will be perfect. Except it won’t Aqualung, and we both know it. This Bucs team isn’t manned to dominate mano-a-mano and that’s a major problem IMO.
We’ve got too many players who are undersized for the position they’re being asked to play. You don’t win 1-on-1’s that often with that going on. What I saw at Sunday’s game was our DLinemen not only not getting penetration by-and-large, but also being blocked out of their gap far too often. Cards only ran 19 times, but they averaged 5.0 YPC. And the Cards aren’t an especially good running team (ranked #24).
I LOVE great defense. And I’ve seen a bunch of it over the years as a Bucs’ fan for over 40 years now. Sunday WASN’T great defense. Quite the contrary.
December 3rd, 2025 at 3:47 am
With this D and Todd running it? LOL ROFLMFAO! One and done if we do make it to a playoff game!
December 3rd, 2025 at 4:20 am
The video is awesome. What a bunch of good guys.
So glad to hear Bucs are still favored.
FortMyersDave – Agree about the Panthers inconsistency and that the Bucs will sneak back into the playoffs.
December 3rd, 2025 at 6:06 am
Bucs will win there next 3 games and clinch a berth.. and focus on getting healthy the last 2 games. Not winning the last 2 games but focus on getting healthy. Offense plays maybe a Quarter or 2 and then chill
December 3rd, 2025 at 6:22 am
Would be great to get the entire Wideout room healthy for the playoffs.
That’s about the only way I think we don’t get bounced round 1.
December 3rd, 2025 at 6:27 am
Q1. Can we take on the Panthers and win the division?
Q2. In the process, can we pass the Eagles and be a higher seed?
Q3. Does being a higher seed matter given the likely wild card teams: LA, Seattle, GB, SF, Detroit, Dallas? We are 2-2 vs the lot.
Q4. Can we materialize some home field mojo and win a round 1 game?
Inquiring minds “just gots to know”, punks!
December 3rd, 2025 at 8:58 am
The Saints BEAT the Panthers. 49ers, too. Teams we beat without Godwin and Bucky.
The focus should just be on winning the next three. Then be healthy for the playoffs.
December 3rd, 2025 at 9:34 am
clowns keep talking about the panthers beat the rams lol…..who cares…
BUCS beat the 9-3 Seahawks, who lead there division….
wake up clowns!!!!…your crow stew is ready!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
December 3rd, 2025 at 9:46 am
Awesome vid!
December 3rd, 2025 at 9:52 am
People have short memories. 2020 Superbowl Champions were 7-5 and two weeks from having been shut out by the Saints. Had less than a 40 per cent chance of making playoffs.
December 3rd, 2025 at 10:05 am
Buddha Says:
December 3rd, 2025 at 9:52 am
People have short memories. 2020 Superbowl Champions were 7-5 and two weeks from having been shut out by the Saints. Had less than a 40 per cent chance of making playoffs.
with a mid season slump with the GOAT at QB….but yeah, blame bowles lol
GO BUCS!!!!
December 3rd, 2025 at 1:32 pm
That video is hilarious. Barton only benching 385-425 is crazy… the best i’ve done was 385 a few different times and that was at about 187 lbs… He can definitely get a lot stronger… he’s young. Vita and Tez made me laugh out loud. AI… 🙂