Warren Sharp: Blame The Defense
July 3rd, 2025
Defense must improve.
It may have been worse than you thought.
Look, there is no doubt that the Bucs defense, specifically the pass defense, is what sunk the pirate ship last year.
All the Bucs needed was one friggin’ stop on defense in the wild card round loss to the Commandos, and the Bucs would have advanced, likely playing the Eagles who the Bucs stomped earlier in the year.
(Yeah, yeah, the Eagles had their top two receivers out in the game. What, the Bucs were supposed to lay down because of that? That’s what good teams are supposed to do, stomp on opponents when they are at a disadvantage.)
Just one punt. One punt is all the Bucs needed! All this hollering and whining about takeaways, the Bucs didn’t need a takeaway. They just need to force a punt and the defense couldn’t even do that! Shameful.
In his Sharp Football Analysis 2025 Preview, Warren Sharp sifted through his advanced stats and laid out the case that the Bucs defense nearly Pearl Harbored the season, forget a playoff game.
On top of scoring 118 points in the first quarter, the Bucs ADDED a whopping 134 more points in the second quarter.
That ranked #10 in the NFL and was MORE than what they scored in the second quarter in 2023.
How were they ahead in only seven of 17 games, fewer than in 2023.
Sharp looked at his data and pointed a finger directly at Bucs coach Todd Bowles for not figuring out an answer to the leaking pirate ship.
In short, Sharp believes the Bucs defense wasted a special offense last season.
The answer had nothing to do with Coen or the offense. They were exceptional. Blame Todd Bowles and the defense.
In the first half, on a per play basis, they ranked:
#29 in EPA/play
#26 in success rate
#29 in yards/playAnd on a drive basis, they ranked:
#28 in points allowed/drive
#30 in scoring drive rate
#31 in turnovers forced per drive
#25 in touchdowns allowed/driveSo once again, just like in 2023, Baker Mayfield had to play from behind and try to explode in the fourth quarter to win games in 2024.
The 2024 Bucs scored 152 points in the fourth quarter, #1 most in the NFL.
Well, Joe hopes Bowles has things figured out. He had all offseason to tweak his defense. The Bucs have added two talented rookie corners. The Bucs added a proven veteran edge rusher (finally!). The Bucs signed depth at inside linebacker.
If Bowles cannot get the defense to play better with all of those additions, it may be time for him to hire a defensive coordinator and hand the reins over.
July 3rd, 2025 at 4:23 am
Thank you.
July 3rd, 2025 at 4:51 am
So the Bucs’ defense sucked last season? That’s some hot take right there.
July 3rd, 2025 at 5:23 am
Better defense -> less pressure for Baker to be a hero -> fewer interceptions.
It’s going to be a great season!
July 3rd, 2025 at 5:35 am
So it must have been Todd the head coach that got the extension and not Todd the defensive coordinator?
July 3rd, 2025 at 6:28 am
We really saw numbers like this from our defensive head coach and said “We gotta extend this guy!”
July 3rd, 2025 at 6:58 am
Our defense stopped the Commanders on 4th down with 12 minutes to play at the 2 yard line. We fumbled the ball right back to them at the twelve yard line. Almost stopped them again but on 4th down Josh Hayes got beat in the back of the end zone. And I like Josh Hayes. Dean may have broken that play up. Then we tied it up instead of taking the lead because the offense made their second mistake of the 4th quarter. We win and lose as a team and that game could have gone either way. The depth and talent has been improved. The defense has never stopped playing hard, they’ve just been undermanned. That is being taken care of. Smartly signed big offensive contracts first. We’re going to be happy watching how much better this defense is going to be. Just watch.
July 3rd, 2025 at 6:59 am
All opposing quarterbacks had to do was figure out where the 5th string guy in the secondary was, and throw to the person they were guarding. We have GOT to keep a healthy secondary and LB’s this year!
July 3rd, 2025 at 7:18 am
Joe … ‘Bowles has had all offseason to tweak his defense. The Bucs have added two talented rookie corners. The Bucs added a proven veteran edge rusher (finally!). The Bucs signed some depth at inside linebacker.’
Our 2024 defense was more about talent (or lack of) and injuries than it was about Bowles’ ability to coach the defense. Bucs’ hierarchy made the decision to draft only 2 defenders (Braswell & Tykee Smith) in 2024 and go heavy on offense (Barton, McMillan, Irving, Klein, Culp) and that paid off … OFFENSIVELY. We CHOSE to stick with depth guys like Hayes, Thunderstruck, Britt (among others) and it bit us in the arse when injuries piled up. We CHOSE to save money by trading Carlton Davis, and not adding veterans (other than a disappointing Jordan Whitehead & Shaq for the last couple of games).
Our weaknesses were obvious last season, and I’m convinced that’s why we went heavy on defense in this draft, AND in adding several FA veterans to us improve. The ‘burden of proof’ now lies with BOTH of our coordinators actually.
And BTW Joe, it’s kinda unfair to say that “all the Bucs needed was one friggin’ stop on defense in the wild card round loss to the Commandos, and the Bucs would have advanced”. Bucs lost by 3 points. Had we scored a TD at 4:45 remaining in the 4th qtr instead of a FG the Commanders would’ve had to score a TD to win on that last drive. Of course, had Baker not fumbled on the Tampa 13 yard line with 12 minutes to go in the 4th qtr the Commanders wouldn’t gotten the ball with a very short field & scored then and we almost surely would’ve won. Fans & media could play those ‘What if’ games forever. Still doesn’t change history.
July 3rd, 2025 at 7:22 am
This would be more damning to me if I didn’t know 10 of our 23 turnovers came in the 2nd quarter of games.
Kenton just explained how a turnover can put a defense in position to start on their heels/with their backs against the wall when the offense coughs up the ball. Factor in the health of the squad & the talent shift because of it and you get a defense that you can’t cancel out offensive mistakes with. Got to be better going into 2025, and have the depth as prepared as possible for when they’re needed.
July 3rd, 2025 at 7:24 am
Wait a minute, we are told on here by a certain person that Mayfield is not clutch and can’t win games in cruiser ( his word ) moments. Being #1 in 4th quarter points is pretty good, isn’t it?
July 3rd, 2025 at 7:33 am
“…it may be time for him to hire a defensive coordinator and hand the reins over to someone else.” Say no more. SOLD!
July 3rd, 2025 at 7:38 am
Well I’m done rehashing and whining about last season. It’s a new year with many new players and veterans that weren’t available to us last year because of injury.
I’m very optimistic with this current roster. Now it’s up to Bowles to get this team to the NFC Champ game. No excuses this year.
July 3rd, 2025 at 7:46 am
There’s no argument the Bucs’ D had issues last year- injuries, lack of consistent Edge Rusher, lack of talented depth, especially at LB and Secondary.
That doesn’t excuse the Fact that the Offense, despite playing very well for most of the season, crapped their pants in Commanders’ playoff game.
July 3rd, 2025 at 8:20 am
Agreed he should hire a DC. The problem may be more about, as HC and DC, he can’t get the guys to play the way they are supposed to. I think you need to separate the jobs so you can have a good cop / bad cop dynamic. One guy can’t be both. The Xs and Os are likely deficient as well but failure to your job was a problem too.
July 3rd, 2025 at 8:30 am
defense couldve been better absolutely….
but the TOs(INTs & Fumbles) are what doomed us!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
July 3rd, 2025 at 8:59 am
Not worse than we thought…we know.
July 3rd, 2025 at 9:05 am
It’s funny that Bowles gets a pass because “injuries”, but the offense kept right on humming along with rookies starting and Evans and Godwin injured for long stretches for most of the season.
Playing 10 yard off ball coverage and then complaining that the pass rush isn’t getting there and they aren’t forcing turnovers is ridiculous.
July 3rd, 2025 at 9:20 am
why did we extend him?
July 3rd, 2025 at 9:21 am
Good article
July 3rd, 2025 at 9:23 am
“It’s funny that Bowles gets a pass because “injuries”, but the offense kept right on humming along with rookies starting and Evans and Godwin injured for long stretches for most of the season.”
No the offense didn’t keep “humming” without Mike & Chris, we lost both week 7 and dropped 3 straight games before heading into the bye week 11.
KC & SF games we were a combined +2 in the TO margin in each of those games and still lost by a combined 9 points in those 2 games.
July 3rd, 2025 at 9:42 am
Was there ONE coaching error that doomed the 2024 defense?
Yes. Bowles went wrong in sizing up Britt. The player was touted for his football IQ. For leadership. For trash talk. For strength at the point of attack. All those were true. But he just wasn’t a good, or even serviceable MLB. That’s not to slight the player but to call out the coach. (And GM).
The Bucs defense as a whole could take a shot. Bowles worked around poor safety play after Winfield’s injury. He taped together a pass defense when Hall and later Dean went down. While edge pressure failed Bowles schemed up an interior rush.
But there was no overcoming a hole in the middle of the field. Got so bad Britt had to be benched. And replaced by even more dreadful play. That wasn’t misfortune, that was a mistake. An error in talent evaluation of the player, the position and the team.
It also shows how important ILB play is to a team. Every sport is based on strength up the middle. It almost goes without saying, and LBs and RBs are a dime a dozen. Problem was the Bucs didn’t have a dime, and damn near didn’t have a defense. The need to cover up that central weakness pulled focus away from other areas and left the team stretched thin across the back. Injuries will happen; coaching blunders don’t have to.
Be better Bowles.
July 3rd, 2025 at 10:54 am
The sideline stiff….this year will be same old Bowles. A Zebra can not change stripes to spots.
July 3rd, 2025 at 11:05 am
And the Glazers reward him with a contract extension. Yeeeeesh!
July 3rd, 2025 at 11:11 am
The obvious has now become apparent. Thank you, Warren Sharp and thank you, Joe. Apologists and excuse makers can spin and blame injuries or lack of talent.
We are about to find out if the half time coach at two full time positions can institute a remedy to the woeful sieve called pass defense, one that his players understand their assignments in. One that lets players play to their strengths and stops requiring everyone to be a Swiss cheese knife.
Go Bucs.
July 3rd, 2025 at 12:05 pm
What i don’t get is how far our corners play so far off the receivers with wide open catches ,this is not coverage at all and i do not know what they were thinking its just crazy and unwatchable
July 3rd, 2025 at 12:07 pm
Bowles has a lot of proving to do this year the defense was undermanned and out coached !!
July 3rd, 2025 at 1:00 pm
Well……. where are the St Pete’s , GONE Gator’s and the like on this article? I’m half surprised they aren’t marching up and down calling Warren Sharp and Joe for that matter, a bunch of trolls and bullies for simply stating the facts. As they attempt their version of a half a$$ bullying those of us who at this point, … demand better!
As Warren Sharp points out, last year was a Total Waste of a top 3 offense due to… Drum Roll Please….. Todd Bowles.
I’m glad the truth has been made clear for the confused.
With that said, I don’t hate Bowles! Never met the man. It’s NOT personal, it’s Strictly Business. Bowles seems nice enough and I can appreciate that. The players think highly of him and I can appreciate that. Not a bad thing
Now, what I can RESPECT is full filling the Most Urgent NEED of a “Fully Focused” defensive coordinator! And without that BADLY NEEDED issue addressed, I have little faith in the distance “WE COULD GO” this coming season.
Please Todd Bowles, hire your Favorite DC out there. Stop trying to carry the entire load yourself. Futility isn’t pretty. But a giant Super Bowl Ring and a Shinny Lombardi IS! What do You really have to lose?
July 3rd, 2025 at 1:05 pm
‘Blame Todd Bowles and the defense.’
No truer words!
‘If Bowles cannot get the defense to play better with all of those additions, it may be time for him to hire a defensive coordinator and hand the reins over.’
OR do everyone a favor and just retire!…
July 3rd, 2025 at 2:43 pm
“Well……. where are the St Pete’s , GONE Gator’s and the like on this article?”
Pretty sure they’re the same guy lol
July 3rd, 2025 at 2:49 pm
These numbers are atrocious and embarrassing, much less for a defensive-minded HC. All the Todd slurpers first response is “injuries” as if he’s the only coach in the history of the game that has to overcome injuries.
Sure there were injuries, but out d-line was incredibly healthy, our starting CB was layer every game, we lost 1 5th round part-time ILB. It’s not like every position on D was decimated.
I think history is going to look back that we decided to keep the 61 year old DC with these awful stats over the young wunderkind OC and say WTF were they thinking?!
July 3rd, 2025 at 3:12 pm
@obvious
Im trying little man… Maybe my post will make it later.
July 3rd, 2025 at 3:25 pm
@hearty
…… I’m not as mellow as @stpete unfortunately.
We had injuries on all levels of the secondary and our backups were lacking in experience and talent. Ok, you say…..everybody deals with injuries, it’s no excuse. Tell that to some of y’all’s man crush Dan Campbell.
Can we mark you down as predicting we’ll be worse than your red headed saviours new team in duvaaal?
I think history will show you’re as dumb as your simple minded friends.
July 3rd, 2025 at 3:28 pm
@Obvious
I can’t speak for @stpete but I’m present and accounted for.
I’m not going to yap about the 2 job fallacy. You guys just scurry along to the next post when anyone tries to engage you in a logical debate. .
Quite a few of us have posted stats, and a multitude of objective, reasonable takes as to exactly how bad (or not so bad) our defense (specifically pass D) was and why…… Along with why we have hope/expect it’ll improve. This includes many respected commenters who I’ll leave un-named, who are willing to debate their points of view logically without resorting to “straw man” arguments and mis-direction. And then there’s you (and your 1sidekick) 🙄
After the bye:
17.5 PPG (the only stat that really matter)
“3rd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate.”
You’ve Obviously been wrong with your takes repeatedly (much more so than the snowflakes you like to scream about) but refuse to accept that reality and admit you’re wrong.
Remember your Dan Campbell injuries are no excuse take – lol, that’s my favorite. He had a dedicated DC who just got a HC job so what’s his/their excuse?
Nobody’s scared of your keyboard temper tantrums. Nobody’s intimidated by you.
Bless your heart little man.