The Bucs, The 2025 Draft Class And Production
April 30th, 2025
Production matters.
Joe has heard the following chatter on social media and some of the takes are from sports radio hosts and their observations of the Bucs’ draft.
And Joe cannot really disagree.
It seems — that’s the keyword here, seems — that the Bucs put a little more stock into production than projection. And it the folks at NextGen Stats agree.
Per their data, the Bucs were one team that collectively focused more on production in last week’s draft. Per a chart devised by NextGen Stats, the NFL-owned advanced stats outfit, only four teams leaned more on production.
But it wasn’t just production for the Bucs. The Bucs’ draft class also measured out to be a little more athletic than average, barely in the top half of the league.
So it seems the Bucs had a philosophy entering. Drafting production in college translates into production in the league.
Joe isn’t sure that focus is a result of this being the first Bucs draft since 2015 that former assistant general manager John Spytek didn’t have a major voice in the personnel room.
Spytek is the current general manager in Las Vegas.
Production versus traits pic.twitter.com/vvfQ7XnT75
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) April 29, 2025
April 30th, 2025 at 12:25 am
Production is pretty important.
April 30th, 2025 at 12:25 am
I’d be curious to see how our drafts measured out from the last couple of years in comparison. Might be more telling as to whether Spytek’s absence had any effect, or if this has been our MO for a while…
April 30th, 2025 at 12:49 am
Will find out in a couple of years. Licht’s drafts pre-Spytek were, well, spotty.
April 30th, 2025 at 1:42 am
What’s more important then internal relative weight is that the bucs are one of four teams in the top right quadrant: more traits AND more production
April 30th, 2025 at 1:50 am
Indeed. 2014 – 2017 drafts vs 2017 – now, quite different overall results.
April 30th, 2025 at 1:51 am
*2018 – now
April 30th, 2025 at 2:16 am
Long road to the post season…. Gotta have spare parts that fit
April 30th, 2025 at 2:53 am
9 of 11 starters on defense and 9 of 11 starters on offense are via JL’s drafts.
Only free agents are Baker and Bredeson, Reddick and Walker.
I don’t know how this compares to other clubs but it seems to me JL has been killing it for years.
We’ve climbed out of cap hell….. Don’t we have $ left to spend if needed now also?
IF the offense remains top 5 this year and defense cracks the top 10, which should easily happen if we stay relatively healthy…. that should be enough to make serious noise in the NFC this year.
April 30th, 2025 at 3:13 am
This was a risk mitigation draft.
We lost four games mid season with Evans and Godwin injured – draft the WR with the highest floor – Egbuka.
We were minus five on turnovers and in a four way tie for 27th place in interceptions – draft two cornerbacks who had at least one season with several interceptions.
We had to blitz too often to get sacks – draft a DE and an OLB who produced more sacks than most.
We lost too many close games – take a WR with a floor of gadget player in the seventh round to be a wild card who may get us another win somewhere.
This surely was not a best player available draft.
We may disagree greatly about who the best players available were at different points in the draft. But, it certainly wasn’t Egbuka at the 19th pick the first round. But, with his high floor, Egbuka did meet a need and was as safe a pick as can be made in the NFL draft.
I can understand the reasons for drafting this way. It looks like the kind of drafting that enhances job security. But, it doesn’t feel like the kind of drafting that wins Super Bowls.
Time will tell.
April 30th, 2025 at 4:07 am
Toopanca … ‘I can understand the reasons for drafting this way. It looks like the kind of drafting that enhances job security. But, it doesn’t feel like the kind of drafting that wins Super Bowls. Time will tell’.
Part of me agrees with you Toopanca, but another part of me believes that we’re still in the hunt, primarily because the hunt hasn’t even begun yet. We’ve still got the rest of free agency (and some decent salary CAP money) to further improve our defense.
And that’s admittedly what I’m concerned about this year: our defense. We allowed 325 points on the season in 2023 … 19.1 PPG average, enroute to a #5 ranking. But our offense only scored 348 points … 20.5 PPG average … and we went 9-8.
But last year our offense literally exploded & scored 502 points in 2024 … 29.5 PPG average. That’s an incredible improvement of 9 PPG, and resulted in a #4 ranking offensively. But our defense slid backwards, allowing 385 points in 2024 … 22.6 PPG average to a #16 ranking. That’s going backwards by 3.5 PPG average, and it cost us several games IMO (including the wildcard loss).
Bucs didn’t make any dramatic defensive improvements in free agency (we added Haason Reddick & Anthony Walker, and re-signed LVD, Anthony Nelson, Bryce Hall & Greg Gaines). Average age: 30. Improved our depth via the draft (2 CBs & 2 DE/OLBs) but I doubt any of those 4 are inline for a starting job this Sept (you never know though, and I do think the 2 CBs will get some decent field time this season). Bottom lin e though is that I think we still need a couple more defensive improvements to be a bonafide Super Bowl contender this season.
April 30th, 2025 at 5:32 am
Production is fact. Potential is JTS and Diva. I give Jason credit for learning from his mistakes. PFF stats? Nah…
Go Bucs!
April 30th, 2025 at 5:33 am
Looks like the Dolphins have cornered the “less traits less production” market, lol.
April 30th, 2025 at 6:25 am
We repeatedly see the 4 game losing streak blamed on the fact that Evans and Godwin were out thus justifying spending the first round pick cramming another receiver in to the fold when defense is where the holes are in this team….
We dont see much of the blame for that 4 game losing streak on the fact that the defense gave up 41, 31, 30 and 23 points in those 4 games.
In 2 of the 4 games of that streak the offense had more that 300 yards passing….that said the other two were not good and the offense collapsed playing the niners….
April 30th, 2025 at 7:12 am
I see three new starters in the secondary from this draft. Parrish at Nickel, Smith at safety, and if healthy Morrison should send Dean’s one pick every leap year to the bench. Walker won’t start, but you can bet he’ll be in the rotation, so will the other DE. I had been posting for weeks the Bucs needed to draft Matthew Golden. I saw the need for a top receiver. It wasn’t who I thought, but think Emeka was the right pick. In the last ten years we’ve spent many a first rounder on edge rushers, DTs. Only once, Mike Evans have we used a 1st round pick on a receiver. It was past time. Love this draft, and the cherry on top has to be Tezmanian devil Johnson. Bucky’s best friend to boot.
April 30th, 2025 at 7:28 am
Toopanca at 3:13
“I can understand the reasons for drafting this way. It looks like (insert and smells like) the kind of drafting that enhances job security (the top 5 great GM’s don’t think that way cause the team performance takes care of that). But it doesn’t feel like the kind of drafting that wins the Super Bowls.
Bingo!
An accurate introspective take sir.
April 30th, 2025 at 7:32 am
It seems like I see this in every post section. Everyone acts like the defense was terrible and we need to replace/add a bunch of players but the reality is, our defenses was heavily injured, above normal for sure. Can you give me a healthy Winfield and Dennis all season and most of our troubles go away. The pass rusher still mediocre but to say that we didn’t improve much on defense is pretty short sighted. If Riddick plays anywhere near the way he did two years ago and both Diaby and Braswell develop as they should and then you throw Walker in the mix, our pass rush is very different. Move Smith to safety and Parrish plays nickle and I think we’re ready to roll. Just having guys back healthy will make our defense better plus you had the new pieces and we’re all set. If our defense is decimated again this year, won’t be as tough on this as it was last year but it’s hard to wen a super bowl unless you’re lucky enough to stay pretty healthy. We were very healthy in both of our super bowls wins.
April 30th, 2025 at 7:51 am
The defense was already greatly improved by getting rid of Britt and JTS, neither of whom was suited to playing in a 3/4
April 30th, 2025 at 8:16 am
Beej: Completely agree, also moving Larry Foote back to coaching where he should be going to help. Excited for Morrison and Walker as well.
April 30th, 2025 at 8:27 am
Health is the vital ingredient to sustained success, look at Detroit in the playoffs last year, the injuries caught up to them. Same with KC’s line in the SB in their loss to us, it plays a huge part. If we stay relatively healthy on both sides of the ball this year we will be better, especially the defense, it was crippled. Some one, I think Joe wrote that the Bucs learned they don’t want to trot out mediocre backups when the starters go down. Absolutely correct. I think Bowles looks at them as like 1a, 1b and so on as starters, 2nd stringers, etc.
April 30th, 2025 at 8:58 am
Seems like Bowles is all in on this draft, so no excuses, it has to be better than last year or it could point right back at him as the problem. It seemed like Licht and Bowles have pretty good chemistry at the draft, so I don’t see any changes at the top anytime soon.
April 30th, 2025 at 9:50 am
Interesting that Spytek went WAY over to the right on athletic ability. He drafted all the ‘freaks’ apparently. Should be interesting to watch the TB and Raiders drafts over the next couple seasons.
As for this year, we added 3 definite future starters, and at least 2 ‘role’ players. Out of 6 drafted, that’s pretty darned good.
April 30th, 2025 at 9:54 am
The Defense started getting bit by the Buc Luck bug (injuries) after the Detroit win. That slowed the team down as it does any NFL squad. Glad to see it emphasized in the comments here. Bucs have to have some luck injury-wise just to make it to the Conference Championship. Both SB winning teams were healthy. I have to take my hat off to the Offense here. In all my years of being a fan, I have never seen a Bucs Offense at this level of excellence. That’s in spite of the constant change of OCs. Kudos to all involved, and go Bucs!!
April 30th, 2025 at 10:07 am
Toopanca, and Ancient. The kind of drafting that enhances job security? Hello Ancient! An accurate introspective take sir? Let’s see. These two are trying for their sixth straight trip to the playoffs. They have as good a team camaraderie as any in the league. They have been to and won Super Bowls. What kind of fan would feel like their accurate and introspective view is this was a draft to enhance job security? You guys have an inaccurate and paranoid view. But you’re 100 percent correct on the bottom line. The way they operate definitely enhances their job security. It’s called winning. Some people have it and some don’t.
April 30th, 2025 at 10:11 am
It’s great that the Head Coach is also the Defensive Coordinator! It really is, I’ve come around. It’s proven to work.