The Bucs, The Playoffs And The Draft
October 21st, 2026
Sad state of the Bucs.
Let’s have some fun with numbers, shall we? Because we sure as hell are not having any fun with the Bucs on the field.
There are two topics Joe will deal with here. Playoff probabilities and draft probabilities.
Since the Bucs are no fun — vomit-inducing, actually — let’s deal with surreality first and then we will deal with something closer to reality.
First up, playoffs! Believe it or not, the Bucs have the second-best chance of all NFL South landfill teams of making the playoffs. No, really. That’s what BSPN says!
The numberscrunchers over at the four-letter give the Bucs a 14 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 12 percent chance of winning the division, despite having a 1-5 record. So all is not lost!
BSPN currently has Carolina with a 71 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 69 percent shot of winning the division.
Now onto something closer to reality. That is the draft.
Per BSPN’s calculations, the Bucs have an 84 percent chance of a top-10 pick in the draft next spring. A top-five pick? It’s basically a coin flip at 52 percent.
Now, when it comes to landing the No. 1 pick, that lies at eight percent.
October 21st, 2026 at 12:21 am
I thought you said this was going to be fun, Joe?
I’m not having any fun. This team stinks.
October 21st, 2026 at 12:45 am
all I care about is getting rid of Todd Bowles and Jason Licht so since that is not going to happen., I have moved on from this team. Good luck Joe.
October 21st, 2026 at 12:58 am
I think more like the Bucs & the draft instead because I don’t see the playoffs. Some are surprised they’re looking like this but I’m really not. They were looking like this at the end of the year last year & I had a feeling this year was gonna go either way.
October 21st, 2026 at 12:59 am
If only they had Jim Mora coaching the team now talking about the playoffs. He’d be perfect giving that speech for them right now, too!
October 21st, 2026 at 1:07 am
Joe, why have you not stopped to celebrate that Kancey has started every game this year??
October 21st, 2026 at 1:21 am
This team has a lot of good young players. I’m looking for season-long improvement. Then of course I’m looking forward to the regime change. And the inevitable turnover of roster. A lot of current players, some of them popular, will be gone this time next year. And probably for the best.
October 21st, 2026 at 1:23 am
Short window to turn it around, I hope for the best. Worst case scenario is we keep losing and the Glazer tribunal convenes and eradicates the Bucs hierarchy to return to being glorious bastards.
October 21st, 2026 at 1:59 am
I don’t even want to entertain playoffs as a possibility. Three reasons:
1) The likelihood of being disappointed.
2) The absurdity of even bothering to hope for wins. I no longer want wins. My number 1 priority is to make sure that Bowles is fired. The best way to ensure that is to make it inevitable by losing as many games as possible.
3) Draft position is much more important for this team than getting a few extra wins for a lame duck HC.