The Bengals Offense And 28 Points
September 11th, 2026
Slowing down Joe Burrow.
For Joe, the key is 28 points.
Or, more importantly, can the Bucs hold the explosive Bengals offense to under 28 points? Joe thinks that’s the key right there.
Why does Joe use under-28 points as the bar? Well, over the summer, former handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp had a very interesting defensive stat and how it affects quarterbacks.
There is only one quarterback in the NFL who has a winning percentage when his defense allows 28 or more points. There is also only one quarterback who has a .500 record when his defense gives up 28 points.
The lone winning quarterback is Josh Allen. The quarterback who has a .500 record when his defense allows 28 points is Jalen Hurts.
Every other quarterback in the NFL has a losing record when their defenses allow 28 points. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is 1-12 in games when his defense coughs up 28 points.
Slowing down Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense is easier said than done.
“[It’s a] big challenge, huge challenge,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said this week. “I mean, those guys have been together for a long time in that offense.
“[Joe] Burrow and [Ja’Marr] Chase have been together since college, so they’ve been doing it for a long time. [They are] very precise, know each other very well – not just those two, but [Tee] Higgins and the rest of the guys as well, [Chase] Brown, the rest of the team, very good chemistry there, very good chemistry there. We’ve just got to line up and be very sound at what we do, and we’ve got to make plays.”
Good luck.
Last year, the Bucs’ defense was the worst in Todd Bowles’ regime, averaging 24 points allowed. There have been massive changes to the defense, specifically the front-seven.
The front-seven is not what Joe is worried about with the Bucs’ defense. It’s the Bucs’ corners facing probably the best one-two punch in the NFL, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
If the Bengals ring up 28 points, it is unlikely the Bucs can win, based on history.
team win % by QB when defense allows 28+ points:
0.538 – Josh Allen (7-6)
0.500 – Jalen Hurts (7-7)
0.429 – Patrick Mahomes (3-4)
0.360 – Jared Goff (9-16)
0.333 – Davis Mills (2-4)
0.333 – Brock Purdy (3-6)
0.308 – Lamar Jackson (4-9)
0.286 – Sam Darnold (2-5)
0.286 – Kirk…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 28, 2026
September 11th, 2026 at 5:01 am
Speaking of defense, there was no 3 and 28 conversions for the Rams last night. Now you know why Evans left Joe. He’s chasing a Ring. Kyle Shanahan, Todd Bowles. You choose.
September 11th, 2026 at 5:11 am
I suspect Hodad is correct on his reasoning but the Rams looked horrible last night. SF had the epitome of a dink dunk offense. Let’s see what Todd can do with all his new toys on defense.
September 11th, 2026 at 5:43 am
Get to Burrow, sacks not just pressures… GAME OVER, if we don’t… We’ll be in for a long game. D-Line needs to swarm! LFG
September 11th, 2026 at 6:20 am
They are gonna have burrow running for his life – i think bucky is gonna have a big game as well
September 11th, 2026 at 6:37 am
Evans left because he no longer held head billing (younger guys stepping up and taking touches away). It’s interesting how an over inflated ego affects an individual.
September 11th, 2026 at 6:40 am
burrow is so damn good…as that saying goes…
“you can only hope to contain him”
September 11th, 2026 at 6:51 am
There’s been a tremendous amount of conversation here about how terrific the Bucs will be this year. I hope it’s true, but I don’t expect immediate miracles.
September 11th, 2026 at 7:32 am
Is Joe Burrow better than Kirk Cousins? Yes? Bowles had no answers whatsoever for Cousins the last 2 years. Things to look for:
Bain/Diaby in coverage
ILB’s trying to cover guys they can’t cover
CB’s 10 yards off the LOS
These were a few signs of a failing defense the last few years. We’ll see if Bowles has the capability of adjusting.
September 11th, 2026 at 7:34 am
28? I’ll be surprised if bowles can hold burrow to 48 or less. I’m taking the bengals and the over.
Bowles race to 11 losses starts Sunday.
September 11th, 2026 at 7:37 am
One more key number. 7 to 10 ?
How much yds off the Dbs will be when covering Higgins and Chase.
No matter how much better the pass rush will be it doesnt matter if Burrow can throw in 2 seconds because the WRs will be open from the get go.
Look at all the top Ds last season. Look at the Seahawks, Pats, 49ers from the first couple of games. Look how tight is the coverage most of the time.
Coach Bowles plays a Defense that almost like 90% of the times the coverage is soft and the Dbs are 10 yds off. You will not going to contest a lot of catches like that.
Why you think all QBs (starters, backups, rookies) have great passing games against us more often than not. Its only because the lack of consistent pass rush? Or its also because the receivers are akways open with no defender 3 yds close to them.
Go Bucs
September 11th, 2026 at 7:45 am
We need to see if the Bengals offensive line has improved. If they play the way they did in preseason Burrows might not make it through the game. The Bucs won’t be able to completely shut them down, but they can dink and dunk their way to victory by playing keep away.
September 11th, 2026 at 7:52 am
after that collapse last year hard to believe they can beat those guys on the road but the o line is healthy and the defense is way different, go bucs!
September 11th, 2026 at 7:58 am
I dont know about 28 points. The Bengals offensive line is going to have to prove they can block first
September 11th, 2026 at 7:59 am
Last year’s opening game, Browns held Bengals’ Chase Brown to 43 yards on 21 carries and Burrow was sacked 3 times as Bengals offense was held to 17 points.
Bengals won the game 17-16 as Browns’ QB Joe Flacco was intercepted twice .
So there is the formula- stop the run, pressure Burrow and don’t make turnovers or stupid penalties.