Big Prediction For Bucs Defense
September 7th, 2026
Could the Bucs have a strong defense this year? There’s a chance. But recent history suggests that happening would be something of an outlier.
Since Bucs coach Todd Bowles came to town, only once has the defense not been ranked in the 20s (or worse) in passing yards allowed per game. And that’s with a double-digit edge rusher.
A lot of folks, including Gennaro Filice of NFL.com, believe a beefed-up front seven will mark a return of defense to the Bucs this fall.
Todd Bowles’ defense has fallen off in recent seasons, with one of the biggest problems being the lack of a true edge monster. Yaya Diaby was a nice find in Round 3 of the 2023 draft, but no Buccaneer has posted double-digit sacks since Shaq Barrett back in 2021. This is why the Bucs are still thanking their lucky stars that Rueben Bain Jr. shockingly fell right into their lap in April’s draft. I’ve been driving the Bain train ever since, arm length be damned. Will the No. 15 overall pick post 10-plus sacks in Year 1? That’s a tall order for any first-year pro, but I think he can provide the kind of violent disruption that made Jared Verse the 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year. More pressure up front will make life easier in the back end, which is key for Tampa’s young-but-enticing secondary.
“Enticing secondary?” As in enticing for quarterbacks to throw on?
Look, the Bucs could have the best safety duo in the league. But the corners? Joe is a big fan of Jacob Parrish, but he has scant experience at outside corner. And Joe doesn’t want to recount bored Zyon McCollum’s ups-and-downs as a Bucs starting corner.
After those two, Bowles said Benjamin Morrison is the first off the bench if something happens to McCollum. So far, the only thing Morrison has proven is that he can pull a hamstring.
(Joe is pretty confident that Bowles gave Suh the green light to freelance, provided he had a valid reason to freelance — we’re talking about one of the game’s greats, Suh.)
Joe is firmly in the burning bush category when it comes to the defense carrying the team to the playoffs. Joe will have to see it to believe it.
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game
2019: 270.1 (30th)
2020: 246.6 (21st)
2021: 238.9 (21st)
2022: 203.6 (9th)
2023: 248.9 (29th)
2024: 243.9 (29th)
2025: 238.2 (27th)
September 7th, 2026 at 7:25 am
So why is Bowles considered a defensive guru again???? Once in 7 seasons ranked in the top 10 passing defense.
September 7th, 2026 at 8:01 am
Two good offensive coordinators and one injured riddled season saved Bowles. Nothing is going to save him this year unless the Bucs reach deep into the season.
September 7th, 2026 at 8:05 am
People do understand that the numbers are skewed right? Of course we will have higher passing yardage against us when teams realize that running is pointless. Since Todd arrived as D coordinator, we have had a top 5 run defense. When teams realize they are wasting their time trying to run, they will abandon it and pass. When they do that, you’ll have more passing attempts/yards against you. Have we had some big plays given up and some lapses? Absolutely. But the “bad” pass defense thing is slightly overblown (thanks to falcons games).
September 7th, 2026 at 8:07 am
Points per game given up is a much better indicator of how good a defense is than yards allowed
September 7th, 2026 at 8:10 am
Bowles defense is hot garbage. Zero reasons to keep him around at this point.
After the week one loss to Cincy in week one he’ll be on his heels the remainder of the season.
History shows he cannot recover once that happens.
Licht is also at fault for the state of the franchise. He’s the architect of this sh@t show.
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
September 7th, 2026 at 8:14 am
Joe … ‘Joe’s issue is that Bowles said several times he asks his outside linebackers to “do other things” than just rush the passer.’
Yup, that’s one of the issues when you only have 2 ILBs on the field … 2 ILBs sometimes aren’t sufficient to cover the short zone. Of course, every other 3-4 defense in the NFL ALSO has to use their OLBs to “do other things”, but we won’t go there.
September 7th, 2026 at 8:16 am
This is the heart of the issue to me, and to many Bucs fans concerning Todd Bowles. If your coach is supposed to specialize on one side of the ball and that side is not special then what. Bowles is also known for being a good man and that’s great but where else does he excel. If he were a great motivator, a great judge of coaching talent for his staff, a great teacher of the game then he could be a great coach. Please tell me what can give me confidence in his ability to lead this team.This organization has a great ability to find talent and keep them in Tampa. Bowles seems to be hamstringing, no slight on Benjamin Morrison, this resource and opportunity.
September 7th, 2026 at 8:31 am
Is Joe over-indexing on this passing yards stat? Surely points is the only meaningful stat once stripped of its context? Maybe Bowles stops the run which leads to teams taking more chances through the air, and that’s a good thing?
September 7th, 2026 at 8:33 am
The Bucs finally found an edge rusher, so naturally Bowles will have him covering a tight end on 3rd-and-28.
Ouch.
September 7th, 2026 at 8:34 am
Bowles asking edge rushers like Bain to “do other things” is like buying a Ferrari and assigning it to Meals on Wheels.
September 7th, 2026 at 8:44 am
* * * * Passing * * * * Rushing per
2019: 270.1 (30th) ~ 73.8 (1st in NFL)
2020: 246.6 (21st) ~ 158 (31st)
2021: 238.9 (21st) ~ 92.5 (3rd)
2022: 203.6 (9th) ~ 115.2 (15th)
2023: 248.9 (29th) ~ 95.3 (5th)
2024: 243.9 (29th) ~ 97.8 (5th)
2025: 238.2 (27th) ~ 99.1 (5th)
I am not sure these stats mean anything, other than lack of talent the last couple of years vs the pass. But in ’19 and ’20 the Bucs were one of the top teams overall, but still ranked poorly against the pass.
And there were some years team gave up trying to run against the Bucs like in 2019, so that would also skew the numbers.
Top 5 against the run in 5 out of 7 past years. Not bad. But then we know Todd will sell out his soul to stop the run, and leave the porous secondary to fend for themselves.
September 7th, 2026 at 8:46 am
@DR, you tell em. And we wonder why we have so many negative nellies commenting here. It makes the comment section hard to read.
September 7th, 2026 at 8:46 am
These stats are misleading, because teams are failing to run on the Bucs
Therefore, they are forced to pass the ball
Total points allowed, yards per pass play are better indicators
September 7th, 2026 at 8:49 am
The other side of the “But we’re good against the run so opposing offenses pass on us” is the harsh reality of when you can’t get pressure from four, and your CB’s are consistently playing sometimes 10-12 yards off of receivers (even with good safeties over the top), why wouldn’t you throw the ball? Ask yourself why EVERY opposing QB knows where the open receiver is against this defense on almost every passing down.
I think this entire dynamic changes if the pass rush ends up improving, but please stop pushing the “we stop the run” narrative.
September 7th, 2026 at 9:08 am
The Jacksonville Jaguars were ranked 21st in pass defense
But, teams passed the ball against them 635 times, the most in the NFL
And teams averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt, which were 3rd in the NFL
Their pass defense were really great against the pass
But first glance at the star sheet, you would think they sucked in pass defense
September 7th, 2026 at 9:09 am
**star sheet””
September 7th, 2026 at 10:11 am
Lately, most opposing teams don’t mind that we have been stopping the run. They know they can get extended drives by passing against this soft zone, even when it’s 3rd and 28. That said, if the revamped front 7 can apply meaningful pressure with 4, as well as cover the middle of the field effectively, the Bucs may see some light at the end of the tunnel! We’ll get a true test on Sunday!!
September 7th, 2026 at 10:30 am
LOL… Predictions!
Wondering if there is an accuracy stat for all the so called sports journalist’s “predictions”? Kinda wish they would all pick us to finish last in every one of them. At least we would have bulletin board material! These guys kill me.
We have done nothing. We embarrassed ourselves the second half of last season! They can tell this dominating defense just by sitting in their offices? Have they all come to a camp practice? Or do they just have inside info from the One Buc Janitor? Or maybe Bowles called and told them?
Go Bucs
September 7th, 2026 at 10:48 am
Haha you guys talking about him shutting down the run so of course teams pass…!
You think that’s a Bowles exclusive? Shouldn’t a guru, once he’s established that the run is shut down be able to anticipate and alter the D to then shut down the pass? That would be playing right into a gurus hands no!?
Hahaha Cripes. Surely Todd and the D weren’t focused on the run on 3rd and 28.
September 7th, 2026 at 10:50 am
Senor Harry
There are so many negative Nelly’s because Bowles and Licht care not good at their jobs. That simple, and not unwarranted.
Stats are for losers. Anybody with two eyes can see this organization is fundamentally poorly operated. Even Ray Charles.
September 7th, 2026 at 11:17 am
These stats make a statement. Bowles’ failure as a defensive coordinator is of monumental proportions. He absolutely should have been fired as defensive coordinator, for a consistently and superlatively poor defense and fired as a head coach for retaining himself as defensive coordinator.
Some of you out there might ask why would anyone fire themselves? I’ll tell you why. It is the honorable thing to do. If the head coach also assumes a subordinate role and he fails at that role and brings the team down, he should have the courage to recognize that and act upon it.
He had no problem firing his OC and several defensive assistants for their inadequacies. But his inadequacies were the worst of them all and they have been consistent 6 out of 7 years. Yet here he remains defensive coordinator.
Why does Bowels have so many detractors? So many that want him fired? Because it is common sense that he should be fired.
September 7th, 2026 at 12:36 pm
C’mon Joe, of course outside linebackers have to do more than rush the passer.
That is, unless you think the Bucs should ALWAYS rush at least five or worse, drop tackles into coverage.
September 7th, 2026 at 3:27 pm
The Bengals are going to run pass plays with recievers and tight ends against Trotter just like last year with Dennis. When they had white they had side line to side line speed. He can hit, but does he have make up speed?
September 7th, 2026 at 3:34 pm
Joes favorite stat….. Because he thinks it looks worst on Todd.
BUT, if you check w/l % cross referenced with pass yards allowed you find it doesn’t really matter nearly as much as Joe seems to think.
2025 least pass yards allowed Top 10
Bills
Viking’s
Brown’s
Chargers
Saints
Eagles
Texans
Chiefs
Patriots
Packers
You’d think, based on the importance Joes (and most of the trolls) seem to place on pass yards allowed, the teams with least pass yards would fill all the playoff slots and the SB winner would come from that group 🤔
Seahawks ranked 12th btw.
September 7th, 2026 at 3:43 pm
Seahawks ACTUALLY got to the playoffs and won the SB.
So there’s that!!!!!
Moron.
September 7th, 2026 at 4:15 pm
And they weren’t even top 10…..like I said
Imbecile
September 9th, 2026 at 11:33 am
I am of the opinion that it takes an amazing athlete to excel at OLB the way Todd runs his defense. We don’t have a Charles Haley on this team. I have thought we had close to it in JPP and Shaq though. Right now? We shall see.
Go Bucs!