Here Is Why Bucs May Sink Or Swim Based On Defense
August 30th, 2026
Bad defense often = L.
The three rookies KitKat-eating Bucs coach Todd Bowles banks on starting Week 1 (if healthy) on defense better grow up in a hurry. Otherwise, changes could be in the air in a few months.
Noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp dug up very interesting numbers how defenses help teammats on the other side of the ball.
Sharp documented that only one quarterback’s team has a winning percentage when that team’s defense coughs up 28 or more points in a game. That would be Josh Allen and Buffalo.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have a .500 record when the Eagles give up 28 or more points. Every other quarterback in the NFL has a losing record when his defense allows 28 or more points. And that includes Baker Mayfield.
And before folks jump on the Mayfield-sucks bandwagon, please note that Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert aren’t much better. And Joe is convinced the Mayfield haters would embrace the chance to land Burrow or Herbert if Mayfield left.
Mayfield’s winning percentage with the Bucs when the defense coughs up 28 points is .077. For comparison, Herbert’s record is .083. Burrow is .091.
But the point of this article is not to bash Mayfield, it’s to note that it’s high time a defensive head coach and defensive coordinator get the defense’s act together. That really isn’t too much to ask.
team win % by QB when defense allows 28+ points:
0.538 – Josh Allen (7-6)
0.500 – Jalen Hurts (7-7)
0.429 – Patrick Mahomes (3-4)
0.360 – Jared Goff (9-16)
0.333 – Davis Mills (2-4)
0.333 – Brock Purdy (3-6)
0.308 – Lamar Jackson (4-9)
0.286 – Sam Darnold (2-5)
0.286 – Kirk…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 28, 2026
August 30th, 2026 at 12:13 am
Last season the Bucs gave up 24.2 ppg. 441 pts which ranked 20th in points allowed. Also 4,049 yards (238.2 passing yards and 99.1 rushing yards per game) in case you’re wondering.
So I’m guessing with Bain and the new LBs Joe expects them to be worse? Maybe. But this is the modern NFL and your team has to score. The offense scored 22.4 ppg, 380 total pts and ranked 18th. Below average on offense and defense.
Like most of us have been saying, the offense can’t score consistently. And it doesn’t matter what the reason is. Barely score over 3 TDs a game isn’t getting it done. Scoring 3 more ppg would have the Bucs right outside the top 10 on offense.
Now, did anyone see anything that resembles a top 10 offense during the preseason?
August 30th, 2026 at 12:17 am
Our offense is half retarded and our defense is the other half
The Coach and GM as well
August 30th, 2026 at 12:24 am
How does you know WTF the offense is gonna do,Tell me Seattle will repeat i dare you!
August 30th, 2026 at 12:52 am
Bring on Coach Sean McDermitt as the Bucs NEW HC!
August 30th, 2026 at 2:27 am
Not sure how you came to that conclusion.
August 30th, 2026 at 3:54 am
Name one coach on this team that is exemplary. There isn’t one. I used to think Carberry.. but our O line play has deteriorated, along with our incompetent GM and his lack of roster building ability.
The only truly competent person in the building is number cruncher Greenberg.
I’m a 50 year fan, seen a lot …This team and this season reeks of disaster. The Glazers better have a legitimate plan for next year..
August 30th, 2026 at 5:33 am
Other than our lack of depth at corner I’m not worried about the defense this season. I’m more worried about the offense, especially early in the season. A lot of key guys have been injured and have barely practiced during training camp. The offensive line is one injury away from making this offense struggle. If fully healthy, I think this can be a top 10 offense.
August 30th, 2026 at 5:57 am
Points scored by the opposing offense is in proportion to the ability of the defense disrupting the backfield with their frint 4 in less than 2.5 seconds.
It’s been multiple years since we had a front 4 that could pressure any QB , not since Suh and JPP hung it up. I believe that changes this year and the Bucs will have a top 10 defense. Across the D-Line we have depth, speed and size. It will allow Morris and Trotter to find their footing.
LFG!
August 30th, 2026 at 6:03 am
I researched this Warren Sharp manufactured stat, and found it to be the most meaningless, flat-out stupid excuse for a stat in the historiographical reverence mentions of any stat ever recorded.
Why?
Because it is 100% misleading by using total points scored by any means instead of DEFENSE ONLY scores allowed. Let’s say the QB threw three pick-6’s and his defense gave up a mere one TD. With all extra points being good, there’s your 28 points.
The stat is worded like a QB has to overcome a bad defense when, in the example I provided, he has to overcome his own blunders.
Bad stat, Mr. Sharp!
Jared Goff was faced with 11 more 28 point scores to overcome than the runner up, Hurts with 14. How many of these deficits were a result of Goff’s poor play vs that of his defense, the way the stat is worded? Sure not gonna find that here!
August 30th, 2026 at 6:08 am
A more specific reason might be that Baker too frequently puts himself in harm’s (and turnovers’) way when the D is struggling. Setting aside who’s “to blame”, a strong D probably -> a healthy Baker -> a successful season.
August 30th, 2026 at 6:20 am
Tbh, I don’t really see this stat painting a clear picture of anything. However, there does seem some relative correlation between the top tier QBs (in pay, other than the outliers Joe highlights in the article) and win percentage when facing (>9 games) teams that score 28+ pts. It kind of illustrates the need to hold back $ on Baker’s contract demands, because he requires a stronger supporting cast for team success than say an Allen, Purdy, Dak, or Jackson. But really, this stat can point to many conclusions, like coaching
August 30th, 2026 at 6:35 am
I think Bowles philosophy is warped, whenever the Bucs D has the other team 3rd and 14 or more Bowles would rather give up 10-12 yards and make the other team punt instead of adding pressure, plays it safe, that extra 10-12 yards every time adds up in field position ,,, let’s just say Todd’s Spring hobby is not Riverboat Gambling
August 30th, 2026 at 6:53 am
“The Bucs need to hold teams under 28.”
Somewhere Monte Kiffin just whispered, “That’s the goal now?”
Todd Bowles’ defense is like homeowner’s insurance in Florida: expensive, complicated, and you’re never completely sure it’ll be there when disaster hits.
If your defensive head coach needs Baker to score 30 every week, eventually we have to discuss what the word “defensive” means.
August 30th, 2026 at 7:19 am
Todd … ‘Todd Bowles’ defense is like homeowner’s insurance in Florida: expensive, complicated, and you’re never completely sure it’ll be there when disaster hits.’
Awesome analogy Todd. HOPEFULLY now that we’ve actually spent some money on defense & ‘beefed it up’ we’ll find our way back into the Top-10 again this year.
August 30th, 2026 at 7:29 am
it would be ironic if zacs bad offense gets todd fired
August 30th, 2026 at 7:31 am
Ah , there’s the devil in the details. The answer to a winning season is to score 1 point more per game? The problem with using statistical outcome on a player basis is there is not an adjustment for injuries, the player or his starting team mates, or just plain bad coaching. I prefer a simpler statistical model that states team defense that allows 28 yards in two downs will likely lose. There is one of those in every game that is an L.
August 30th, 2026 at 7:36 am
It’s hilarious how some people only know one song, and then sing it with their whole heart.
Joe – Here is an article about how the defense needs to improve.
The lead vocals – So you’re saying Baker sucks.
August 30th, 2026 at 7:47 am
Look at the defense for the Cowboys..
Can you imagine?
August 30th, 2026 at 8:19 am
Joe
I was asking a question. Plus the article mentions 28 ppg given up by the defense which would be significantly worse than last season. My point is if the defense stays the same and the offense scores a FG more per game that could equal more wins.
August 30th, 2026 at 8:24 am
Just two more weeks folks. That’s when the phrases “should, could, if, and might” will finally come to a crashing halt.
Then it will just be the results. No more pontificating and propaganda.
Todd Bowles is about to get fully exposed for what he truly is: A fraud.
A defensive HC that can’t coach the defense. Simply the best.
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
August 30th, 2026 at 8:47 am
I know this wasn’t the intent of the article, but this hit me hard that Baker is not a top 10 QB. I hate that anytime we get good or above average QB play, they want top tier money. It reminds me when Winston wanted 30 million after a 30 interception season. Then went on to sign for a ham sandwich with the Saints. Why can’t they be reasonable. 50 million after a massive collapse of a season is insane money and not earned in my opinion. I like Baker for sure, and want him to finish his career here, but I don’t want to pay for peak Joe Montana play, when we’re not getting it on the field.
August 30th, 2026 at 8:48 am
Welp, this entire stat is derived from games going back to the start of 2022.
As for 2025:
Bucs went 1-5 in the 6 games we allowed >28 points with the offense only scoring >28 points in 3 of 6 games w/a 1-2 record in those 3 games.
Bills went 4-2 in the 6 games they allowed >28 points with their offense scoring >28 points in 5 of those 6 games w/a 4-1 record in those 5 games.
Point allowance and point generation go hand in hand.
Bills had 11 games they scored >28 points
Bucs had 5 games they scored > 28 points
August 30th, 2026 at 9:10 am
Despite those trying to poke holes in it – This stat seems quite relevant in relationship to last year’s record….. and perhaps this year’s as well….
Bucs were 1-5 in games that the opponent scored 28 points or more…..
Conversely, the Bucs were 6-1 in games that the opponent scored 21 points or less….
Buccaneers defense averaged giving up 24 ppg in 2025…..
So if the 2026 Bucs defense could improve enough to bring that average down by 3 points per game – the end result would very favorable…. likely 12 or more wins on the season.
I believe the defensive additions in 2026 – especially the improved pass rush – will lead to much better results at the end of the day. Inside and Outside LB rooms are night vs day better (and deeper) than last year!
Its also hard to imagine that the Bucs offense couldn’t bump up last year’s 22 ppg average by at least 2 or 3 points – to 24 or 25 ppg average…..
If both those things happen (which seems realistic to me) – this 2026 Bucs team will win a lot of games- and likely be one of the better teams in the league.
Can’t wait to see what this team looks like against the Bengals. I think that first game will tell us quite a bit about how this season will go….
August 30th, 2026 at 9:57 am
Based on these stats alone, the data suggests Todd Bowles and Jason Licht should’ve been given their walking papers.
August 30th, 2026 at 10:07 am
He’s not a defensive guru
He’s not a good game manager
He’s not an offensive HC
More than one of these things does not belong
August 30th, 2026 at 10:12 am
If the offense stays healthy it will be top 5.
If the defense stays healthy it will be somewhere in the 5-15 region. Probably somewhere in the middle of that range.
That’s the profile of a team that could win a Super Bowl with some luck (and continued health) in the playoffs.
August 30th, 2026 at 11:35 am
Pickgrin … ‘So if the 2026 Bucs defense could improve enough to bring that average down by 3 points per game – the end result would very favorable…. likely 12 or more wins on the season.’
I agree with your conclusion Pickgrin, but 12 wins still requires that the offense carry its’ share of the burden. For instance, we won 2 games in the 2nd half of last season … 20-17 over the Cards and 16-14 over the Panthers. Thankfully our defense did phenomenal in those 2 games (15.5 PPG average), because our offense only averaged 18 PPG in those 2 games.
And sometimes that’s what it takes to win in the NFL. But relatively few teams have a defense that’s good enough to compensate for an offense only averaging 18 PPG. Looks like the only 2 teams that accomplished that last season were Seattle (292 pts allowed) and Houston (295 pts allowed). They both did pretty well though.
August 30th, 2026 at 2:44 pm
True. and Bowles is our Guru. 8 ball says outlook not so good.
August 30th, 2026 at 10:01 pm
Bowles sucks. He’s the worst headcoach and terrible DC. Every young player will be out of position, every receiver will be wide open against this defense. Ruben Bain will be a cover cb 30% of his snaps.
Fire bowles by halloween,