Improving one small element could produce big results.

As much as Joe is triggered by the 2-7 post-bye collapse of the Bucs last year, they were one win away from a division title.

And despite Joe wanting to go scorched earth on a team that choked like dogs with a quitting defense down the stretch (even though the offense got healthier) just one play here or there may have made the difference between watching the playoffs at home and hosting a Wild Card game.

Joe was reading Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, which is chock-full of deeper-than-deep stats on all teams last year.

Sharp had an interesting graphic (see below). With the offensive line and receivers ravaged by injuries, Baker Mayfield (who was badly injured himself) was middling throwing on first and third downs. Joe actually thinks that’s pretty good when you remember how many starters were out for prolonged periods.

The Bucs’ passing success percentage on first downs ranked No. 12 and on third downs was No. 18. Again, average until you factor in how Mayfield too often played behind two backup tackles and two lousy backup guards — while too often throwing to receivers who were a seventh-round pick, an undrafted free agent and a washed veteran who is currently unemployed.

But on second downs? Mayfield and the Bucs were one of the worst in the league.

(A successful second-down play by most NFL statheads is when the offense gains at least 70 percent of the yards needed for a first down.)

Why did the Bucs rank No. 27 on second downs but were average on first and third downs? If the Bucs can just maintain their first- and third-down success and improve the second-down passing success rate league average, that could result in one additional scoring drive per game.

The Bucs lost six games last year by just one score. So improving one small element of the offense could transform into a pretty big result.