Unlocking Second-Down Mystery May Get The Bucs An NFC South Title
July 4th, 2026
Improving one small element could produce big results.
As much as Joe is triggered by the 2-7 post-bye collapse of the Bucs last year, they were one win away from a division title.
And despite Joe wanting to go scorched earth on a team that choked like dogs with a quitting defense down the stretch (even though the offense got healthier) just one play here or there may have made the difference between watching the playoffs at home and hosting a Wild Card game.
Joe was reading Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, which is chock-full of deeper-than-deep stats on all teams last year.
Sharp had an interesting graphic (see below). With the offensive line and receivers ravaged by injuries, Baker Mayfield (who was badly injured himself) was middling throwing on first and third downs. Joe actually thinks that’s pretty good when you remember how many starters were out for prolonged periods.
The Bucs’ passing success percentage on first downs ranked No. 12 and on third downs was No. 18. Again, average until you factor in how Mayfield too often played behind two backup tackles and two lousy backup guards — while too often throwing to receivers who were a seventh-round pick, an undrafted free agent and a washed veteran who is currently unemployed.
But on second downs? Mayfield and the Bucs were one of the worst in the league.
(A successful second-down play by most NFL statheads is when the offense gains at least 70 percent of the yards needed for a first down.)
Why did the Bucs rank No. 27 on second downs but were average on first and third downs? If the Bucs can just maintain their first- and third-down success and improve the second-down passing success rate league average, that could result in one additional scoring drive per game.
The Bucs lost six games last year by just one score. So improving one small element of the offense could transform into a pretty big result.
July 4th, 2026 at 12:56 pm
I personally don’t need the stat nerds to break down percentages for me when it comes down to the bucs last year . The defense was straight up lousy in gang tackling , flying to the ball & read n react when it mattered most . It also didn’t help that baker was giving the ball away in crunch time . The coaches were horrible & if they don’t get their heads out of thier asses , then we have a total rebuild coming.
July 4th, 2026 at 1:11 pm
They won 6 games by only one score as well, so it’s kind of a wash. Don’t see a total rebuild coming at all actually. A change in coaching staff is likely all that’s needed to get this team beyond the 1st round of the playoffs. Easy to see todd is the biggest thing holding them back.
July 4th, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Coaching matters. Good coaching is important . Bad coaching should be eliminated.
Glad Jason stuck with Tdod and waved goodbye to a hall of famer.
July 4th, 2026 at 1:53 pm
I don’t think Shepard was ‘washed’ at all. He made some clutch catches last year.
July 4th, 2026 at 1:59 pm
So does injurys obviously
July 4th, 2026 at 2:02 pm
In ’24 we were used to getting 4-5 yards running on 1st down via a variety of methods. Last year….quick screen rinse and repeat
July 4th, 2026 at 2:08 pm
Beeej, spot on.
July 4th, 2026 at 2:40 pm
If, could, should, might, maybe, probably, hopefully.
These are words that form a mantra for losers to fail upwards.
Bud Licht chose Toad Bowels over Mike Evans.
Just pure genius.
July 4th, 2026 at 3:08 pm
Why is it RBs(smaller than Baker) can get tackled 20 plus times a game and they do & are expected to pop right up and be ready to take the rock and be fed more BUT Baker decides to scrabble and run a few times per game EVERYBODY swears he is playing with injuries even thou NO REPORTS say he has any injuries!! hmmmm I wonder
July 4th, 2026 at 3:14 pm
RBUC… the difference between the QB and RB and how injuries affect performance is called a throwing arm.
July 4th, 2026 at 3:29 pm
Evans missing 12 games in 2 seasons at 32 yrs old, 33 when this season starts! And mayfield is old at 32 you guys don’t make sense
July 4th, 2026 at 3:32 pm
We should be in better shape without Mike’s 1k being as important as wins. No more we have to get Mike his touches…. The offense runs thru Mike bullshlt.
Godwin is back, J-Mac is ready, EE is recharged. Tez and Hurst + Gainewell and Bucky all ready to roll. And we have an OC who’s ready for the challenge of using more/all of our weapons not just Mike, EE, and Bucky 👍🏼
July 4th, 2026 at 3:40 pm
Whats funny everyone talks about the bad as far as mayfield, how bout this go back last season to the 49ers and seahawks games,mayfield absolutely shredded both top ranked defenses, with a healthy oline the dude can sling it! Just sayn
July 4th, 2026 at 3:57 pm
Very simple: QBs and RBs are different animals. They are built different too, literally.
The only reason a sane coach would have a quarterback on the field is to throw the ball. Anyone remember Dan Kendra? Dude was Mike Alstott. He was more fullback than running back with a JPP mentality. 🙂
(Be careful today uniKendra!)
Running backs expect, and train for years and years, to absorb punishment. Not quarterbacks.
Remember when Chucky didn’t want to draft Brady Quinn because he was “too buff?” Quinn was really, really rocked up like a fullback when he came out of Notre Dame. Chucky believed that a QB too musclebound won’t throw right.
So there’s your difference.
July 4th, 2026 at 4:02 pm
(ahem) Joe has many, many, many times. 🙂
July 4th, 2026 at 4:05 pm
I know, Bake knows, Jason knows he’s about to get it….4 yrs, 52 i even told him that on his fb page…its coming…then Big V and some restructuring…yeah, its gonna hurt the cap, oh well 🙂 …we’ll deal next year
July 4th, 2026 at 4:36 pm
I find it a mixed blessing that the Bucs ultimately missed the playoffs…mostly because the Rams would have embarrassed them at Ray Jay no less. That loss likely gave them the pick that luckily landed Bain as well.
July 4th, 2026 at 4:39 pm
Here’s 1, Keeping evans and let mayfield walk …Now that’s thinking….
July 4th, 2026 at 4:40 pm
🚨
@Joe, let me feast Sir:
Everyone keeps focusing on one stat while missing the bigger picture. Joe’s second down numbers aren’t just about play calling, they’re about context. Tampa was forced to play large stretches of the season with backup tackles, backup guards, an injured Baker, and a receiving corps that was missing or limited. That’s a recipe for predictable second-down football.
Now fast forward to 2026. The offensive line is healthier. Zac Robinson brings a different philosophy. Bucky Irving has another year under his belt. Jalen McMillan isn’t a rookie anymore. Emeka Egbuka adds another explosive separator. Gainwell gives them another weapon out of the backfield. That’s a younger, faster, deeper offense.
And let’s address the elephant in the room: Mike Evans is a Buccaneers legend. First-ballot Hall of Famer. But football is about projecting forward, not living in the past. He would’ve entered the season at 33 after missing 12 games over the previous two years. Father Time remains undefeated, (JUST LIKE LYNCH MOB 50’s!) and analytics consistently show receiver production and availability begin to decline in the early 30s. Building an offense around multiple weapons instead of one aging superstar is exactly how modern NFL offenses stay explosive.
Last year the offense still finished among the league leaders despite everything that went wrong. Imagine what happens if they simply move from 27th to league average on second-down passing efficiency. Warren Sharp is right, that alone can create another scoring drive each game. Considering six losses came by one score, that’s not a small improvement. That’s the difference between watching the playoffs and hosting one.
The defense absolutely has to improve, and coaching deserves criticism. But pretending this offense got worse because Mike Evans is gone ignores where this roster is headed. It’s younger. It’s deeper. It’s healthier. And for the first time in years, defenses won’t be able to key on forcing the ball to one receiver. That’s evolution, not regression.
2026 won’t be about replacing Mike Evans. It’ll be about becoming harder to defend. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the NFC South.
🔥 LFG!
💍 ME!!
🧌 Come at me trolls!!!
July 4th, 2026 at 4:41 pm
@MadMax
Amen brother! 🫡
July 4th, 2026 at 4:45 pm
BoriMex 813:
Strong analysis.
July 4th, 2026 at 4:48 pm
I agree with half that winny!Im thinking we have a ball club now with a set of fresh new faces that has a chip on their shoulders ! They’re healthy also..Missing the stupid playoffs might have been a blessing!!
July 4th, 2026 at 5:07 pm
Don’t think Bain would have lasted another pick or two
July 4th, 2026 at 5:08 pm
Where will all these trolls go when the Bucs win a bunch of games?
July 4th, 2026 at 5:43 pm
So what am I missing? Middling on 1st and 3rd downs and really bad on 2nd downs passing. Was it because when we ran on 1st down we sucked which set up 2nd and long?
July 4th, 2026 at 5:51 pm
Very good point, getting blown out by the Rams at home AGAIN does nothing positive for this club so it was absolutely a blessing cause we now have a potential franchise changing DE that brings that attitude which we surely lack and haven’t had since the last Miami Hurricane fell in the draft to us. DEJA VU so THANK GOD everything happened the way it did cause we are a totally different team now and I couldn’t be more excited with what Licht has done this off season. It’s gonna be one interesting season boys…get ready.
RAISE THE FLAGS BABY🏴☠️ 💪
July 4th, 2026 at 5:54 pm
@Oscar
That’s a big part of it my friend. We were one of the least efficient teams running on first down, which repeatedly created 2nd-and-7+ situations. Defenses could pin their ears back, disguise pressures, and force longer-developing concepts. That’s exactly where the offense bogged down. If we improve first-down efficiency, whether it’s a better run game or higher-percentage play-action/RPO concepts, and suddenly 2nd down becomes manageable, the entire playbook stays open, and third downs become much more favorable. (Enter Pistol 🔫 Zac’s spread formation). Football is a chain reaction, and winning first down changes TODO!
🔥 LFG!!
💍 ME!!!
July 4th, 2026 at 5:54 pm
the graphic shows what we all know… and what all of the defensive coordinators in the league have known for years: the bucs run on first down and pass on second down.
July 4th, 2026 at 5:55 pm
@ WeDemBoyzFromDaBay
🙏 brother.
July 4th, 2026 at 6:48 pm
@Saskbuc & Joe
Well that throwing arm U 2 schooling me about needs to find the receiver at a faster rate & be more accurate once it’s located ESPECIALLY 20 or more yards down the field, cause the Franchise QBs worth the kind of contract Mayfield is about to sign makes those completions at a high clip!! I remember one of Liam Coen’s pressers, back when he was the Buc OC, the reporter made the observation that his offense was full of a lot of short passes to quickly get the ball out of Mayfield’s hands and into a playmakers possession!! Knowing how intelligent Coen is I’m sure he also designed the offense, back in 2024, to significantly cut down on Baker’s interceptions,as well!! So when JL finally offers Baker his extension that IMMEDIATELY spells the end of every other player Licht wants to extend for market value, a thing of the past so I hope this gamble works in the Bucs favor as far as the team making a deep playoff run😳🤞🏼‼️
FRANCHISE QBs DONT NEED EVERY PART OF THE OFFENSE 2 B PERFECT AT ALL TIMES 2 FIND SUCCESS
July 4th, 2026 at 6:53 pm
Baker baby! 54M x 4
July 4th, 2026 at 7:10 pm
Could’ve should’ve would’ve! Spoken like a true troll! All past tense, smarty britches!
July 4th, 2026 at 7:28 pm
The yardage per attempt on 3rd down is key here. It proves Baler was forced to play hot potato with the football due to the guards. On obvious passing downs the Bucs had to throw immediately or Baker would get killed. And that’s really what killed our offense more than anything.
July 4th, 2026 at 7:30 pm
When you go from the best pass protection to the worst, that’s a big jump.
July 4th, 2026 at 7:32 pm
When the Bucs win a bunch of games again it won’t be for a few years…..unless Twocoach is dismissed in 2026.
But if a miracle happens and the Bucs training staff and medical don’t botch up the player condition as ineptly as they have been, yay. I’d much rather watch the Bucs win a bunch of games, but it’s simply a violation of the laws of science for Twocoach to have another winning season.
That is reality.
July 4th, 2026 at 7:49 pm
RBUC… no they don’t and I apologize for probably coming across as a d*ck there but they need a healthy arm.
The RB can bang that shoulder over and over, give it some meds, just hold on to the ball, barely gotta move it just gotta shield for impact.
Baker plays though upper body issues to his detriment. It’s been talked about lots here that he should be pulled so he’s not a detriment to the team if he is unhealthy enough to be inaccurate. Unfortunately we have to assume that 75% Baker was better than 100% Teddy or Baz.
We have seen in the past 2 years, Baker can be accurate and very good with protection and good playcalling. You don’t just have a year and half like Baker did then suck. There are reasons for it and they have been spoken about ad nauseam.
July 4th, 2026 at 8:32 pm
Well, running backs also wear larger, heavier shoulder pads than QBs. They also typically wear thigh, hip, and knee pads which are rarely worn by QBs.
July 4th, 2026 at 8:38 pm
Been watching the 2025 season over again for the third or fourth time. I find i amusing how before the bye, the announcers had nothing but praise for Bowles (as usual) and Grizzard, who was frequently called one of the up and coming bright minds in the NFL.
What I saw the second half of the season was an offense that usually looked pretty good for the first drive or two but then bogged down until it got to desperation time in the fourth quarter.
Maybe Grizzard was good scripting the game’s first 20 or so plays but got lost when he had to ad lib or worse, change the script entirely when his plan wasn’t working. The hurry-up was likely run entirely by Baker with Grizzard not calling any plays.
July 4th, 2026 at 8:47 pm
Buccaneer Bonzai Says:
July 4th, 2026 at 5:08 pm
Where will all these trolls go when the Bucs win a bunch of games?
Been hearing that same argument since 2022. Still here waiting for that to happen.
You do realize that we criticize Bowles because we actually want to win, correct???
Please reach out when all the Pom Pom waiving lemming speak delivers us to a first round bye and a deep playoff run.
Todd has three years left so I’ll put my money on four years from now.
Unless of course the Glazers awake from their slumber and finally cut the drift wood.
July 4th, 2026 at 10:05 pm
I often wonder what it really is. Does Bowles suck at scheming a defensive game plan? Do the players suck at being able to do their jobs? Are things too complicated? Do we have the right players?
I mean, Bowles defense has looked good to stellar a couple of years. Did the league “catch up” to it or are the players, collectively, not nearly as good as we had in those years?
Don’t get me wrong. I think Bowles has made numerous bone headed decisions in game management – three games last year should have been wins if Bowles would have kicked field goals instead of going for it on 4th and medium/long and failing. That, alone is worthy of a head coach change.
I’m just not sure if he is as bad a defensive coordinator as recent teams would suggest. I’m also not sure if having to be in charge of the whole team instead of just the defense isn’t too much for Bowles, or for that matter, most NFL coaches.
July 4th, 2026 at 10:56 pm
Great post ScottyMack.
I would say it’s a combination of Bowles being stubborn and the league figuring out his tendencies.
And yes doing two jobs has not improved his performance one bit.
He’s been bailed out by a putrid division since he took over as the HC.
But once the prime time playoff games start, he wilts under the heat.
July 5th, 2026 at 9:04 am
Hey Joes,
The real story is in the passing rate ranking per down.
The chart shows that the Bucs were 25th in passing rate on first down, 9th on second down, and 8th on third down. That kind of predictability hands the game plan to the other team’s defense. It is virtually automatic – jam up the Bucs receivers at the line and send the rush after Baker on second and third downs.
Time and again last year, that peculiar form of malpractice cost the Bucs sacks that took them out of field goal range which cost the Bucs wins.
July 5th, 2026 at 11:43 am
Huh?
I think. We did not have plays for third and UDFA or… second and future sales associate? Buka could not carry the whole WR room.
Also kinda makes me wonder where all the guards went when we needed one. Just one!
Strange to me that we sometimes looked worse when we got some dudes back. I can’t even begin to figure that one out.
Go Bucs
July 5th, 2026 at 6:33 pm
Its the best down to be the worst at. Nothing big here imo