A Case For Baker Mayfield
July 18th, 2026
Comparison.
So Bucs fans, would you jump at the chance to pay the following quarterbacks if they suddenly became available?
* The first is the quarterback of America’s Team, Dak Prescott. He threw for the third-most yards and fourth-most touchdowns in the league last year.
* Or how about Justin Herbert, who may have the most talent of any quarterback in the league not named “Pat Mahomes?” Last year Herbert threw for just as many touchdowns as Baker Mayfield.
* Then there is Jordan Love, the Packers’ franchise quarterback. He had 23 touchdowns against just 6 picks last year.
Well, last night on “The Insiders,” seen weeknights on NFL Network, stats for the past three seasons for those three quarterbacks were displayed alongside Mayfield’s numbers. They were very similar.
Mayfield throws more touchdowns than those guys. Another difference is Prescott averaged some 24 yards passing per game more than Mayfield — yet those three quarterbacks get paid significantly more money than Mayfield.
Per Spotrac.com, Prescott is expected to earn an average of $60 million for 2026. Love is looking at $55 million. Herbert, $52 million.
Of those three quarterbacks, only Love has a playoff win the past three years, tied with Mayfield.
Speaking on “The Insiders” last night, NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport said Mayfield “would seem” to have $50 million a year as his rock bottom floor in negotiations with the Bucs.
Joe thinks that is fair.
Even if the Bucs and Mayfield can’t agree by Mayfield’s deadline (the start of training camp in 11 days), Rapoport thinks the Bucs would still be in a good place.
“I think if you the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it’s not ideal, but you know you are going to get the best version of [Mayfield],” Rapoport said.
As Joe has seen more closely in the Netflix series “Quarterback,” at no point can Mayfield ever be dogged for not giving 110 percent, even though physically there were times he had every reason to ease off the gas pedal.
That’s just the way Mayfield is wired.
July 18th, 2026 at 9:07 am
Thats why im at 4 yrs 48-52…he has that dog in him and can game, but sometimes games too hard and hurts himself (at the wrong side of 30)…needs to reel some of that in now and play smarter w/o sacrificing his body so much. Thats a mindset that only Bake can change though.
July 18th, 2026 at 9:17 am
I’m trying to figure out how, when Mayfield has kicked the living shlt out of those other 3 QBs the last 3 years, that he isn’t worth more money than the 3 of them? And you’re haven’t even given rushing stats, Joe. He really kicks the shlt out of them in those metrics.
July 18th, 2026 at 9:39 am
If he doesn’t get paid now and then balls out this year, he’ll have massive leverage in negotiations.
July 18th, 2026 at 9:44 am
Joe trying to stir up the Baker haters on an off day.
July 18th, 2026 at 9:52 am
Pay him 53-55 and call it a day. In a few seasons, it will feel like a great deal. Plus this team is right on the cusp of being really good for a long time.
July 18th, 2026 at 9:58 am
With all their stats being that similar my first thought is that the other three quarterbacks are over payed. Maybe the Bucs wont make the same mistake.
July 18th, 2026 at 10:09 am
I don’t understand why with every other position players have to actually EARN their salary but all quarterbacks have to do is compare with what other quarterbacks make. None of those other 3 quarterbacks are worth what they make yet all three have significantly more wins than Baker.
Win two playoff games this season Baker and you will be able to write your own check.
With all of that most, you shouldn’t want it any other way!!
July 18th, 2026 at 10:12 am
….all of that moxy….
July 18th, 2026 at 10:14 am
If the Bucs won’t pay him someone else will. Baker has his flaws but if we had a better offensive minded coach at the helm of the ship Baker definitely would be league MVP.
July 18th, 2026 at 10:19 am
The real question is:
Are the Bucs able to properly allocate their resources?
If the Bucs are able to have the following:
– a top 5 defense
– a top 5 running game
– a top 5 special teams unit
– a top 5 offensive line
Then we CAN and WILL win a SB with BM at QB.
Until then it is a useless cause…
July 18th, 2026 at 10:22 am
The case for Baker Mayfield is that he’s thrown the 2nd most Passing TDs and 3rd most yards while working under three unqualified OCs with a rotating cast of subpar support.
It’s insane how people misunderstand football.
Competent All22 analysis also shows that Baker wasn’t even the problem with the offense in the SECOND half of the season, despite being injured. If you don’t trust me, trust Ronde Barber’s film analysis.
July 18th, 2026 at 10:29 am
LOL!
I love Ronde.
But he shows a few of BM’s best plays and that is the synopsis of his analysis?
Oh my.
I have a beautiful bridge to sell you folks.
Meet me in SF.
Which is where ME13 is now living and enjoying the full accoutrements of a real HC and OC…
LOL!
July 18th, 2026 at 10:35 am
Baker’s self imposed deadline can’t get here fast enough. That’s if he doesn’t TACO, and extend the talks through camp. God forbid. Can’t wait to talk ball instead of how much Baker should get.
July 18th, 2026 at 10:39 am
and QB
July 18th, 2026 at 10:42 am
Since we are comparing numbers, let’s compare primetime v8ctories, let’s look at the receiving core or starting OL, how about 4th qt turnovers, maybe the fact that every week has to be a shootout due to poor buc defense, how many games did those players miss in that 3 yr period, what’s their RB situation.. you hav3 a contract, any new contract should be based on last year’s performance, especially in a sport with diminishing returns as you age. We all know why Tom came to town, baker benefitted from that same OL n WR, as well as a culture of accountability instilled by Tom. So tell me, what’s happened to that accountability culture during Baker’s tenure? Baker is a baller for sure. Now, he has to prove he’s a mature leader
July 18th, 2026 at 11:45 am
54 per year
July 18th, 2026 at 11:45 am
Joe … ‘Of those three quarterbacks, only Love has a playoff win the past three years, tied with Mayfield.’
THAT’S the great equalizer among the 3 of them & why you feel Baker is worth $52-$60 mil Joe? Because each of them has ONE friggin playoff win? I know you can do better than that.
Two QBs played in the Super Bowl last season. Seahawks’ Sam Darnold is playing under a 3-year, $100.5 mil contract with $55 mil guaranteed (comes out to $33.5 mil per year). Patriots’ Drake Maye is still on his rookie contract, averaging $9.2 mil per year. So NEITHER of those QBs is making the BIG BUCKS but BOTH QBs have fairly sound supporting casts that helped them do very well last season. Coincidence? Not hardly.
As of right now, New England ranks #6 in Top-51 CAP Space with $37.7 mil available. Seattle ranks #13 in Top-51 CAP Space with $25.7 mil available. Just for reference, Tampa Bay ranks #27 with $8.7 mil available. Which of those 3 teams have the LEAST flexibility in being able add talent (depth?) between now and the end of this season?
July 18th, 2026 at 11:51 am
@ marine..That goes for every team
July 18th, 2026 at 11:55 am
MadMax Says:
“Thats why im at 4 yrs 48-52”
That sounds very reasonable. Make 2 years guaranteed and call it a day.
Bucs probably offered him 40-45 with their first offer. He probably offered 55-60.
The first offers are always exaggerated.
They’ll make a deal before the Season starts. If it isn’t by training camp, it will make the news, but it really won’t actually be a big deal.
Also, I believe Mayfield will take whatever the best offer is before the season starts, because he does not want to be without a contract if Bowles gets fired.
July 18th, 2026 at 11:56 am
The Bucs clearly don’t want to pay Baker north of $50 million, however, if the likes of Prescott, Goff, Love, Tua, Trevor Lawrence can get $50 plus, why can’t Baker? What have they won?
July 18th, 2026 at 11:56 am
@Defense Rules
He said only Love has a playoff win.
July 18th, 2026 at 12:00 pm
Just like stone crab claws
It ain’t personal
Market price!
July 18th, 2026 at 12:03 pm
If Mayfield gets $55-60 million per, say goodbye to 2 or more of these players in the next 2 years- Vea, Kancey, Winfield, Godwin or Mauch.
July 18th, 2026 at 12:08 pm
You have no chance to win in the NFL without having a quarterback that is at least “somewhat better than average.” I think that’s the right description of Mayfield. Hard to wrap my head around these nine-figure contracts, though. For both sides to be arguing over a few million per year seems pointless. Especially when the contract will likely be more money than the Mayfields, their children and maybe their grandchildren could ever spend.
July 18th, 2026 at 12:15 pm
Bottom line is that no one knows what kind of team will be fielded this season The past in football doesn’t dictate the next season it just doesn’t! Hence the Seattle NE etc…What i do know is mayfield is the best option right now,and he gives it his all plus he can play the position very well ,im looking forward to this fresh healthy season …how can you not?
July 18th, 2026 at 12:26 pm
@ steve
You are not wrong.
July 18th, 2026 at 12:27 pm
The market is what it is. The only questions you ask are do you wanna gamble with..
-A mid QB in the 1st?
–Giving up future picks to trade up (still a gamble as ALL rookies are)?
–Hope (not a strategy) that you can rehab (another) cast off QB?
I’ll take known over unknown everytime and twice on Sundays, MNF and Thursday nights! The contract will likely require we move on from VV or CG next year, but we’re set up pretty well for next year’s draft. JL needs to start taking a flier on 3rd-5th round QB prospects every 2-4 years.
SGT Schultz says “He’s go-ink NO-vere!!” (And when has he ever been wrong?)
July 18th, 2026 at 12:28 pm
Brady new what he needed to win. He accepted a lower percentage of the cap so the team could add key pieces.
Many teams pay “franchise QBs” top tier salaries and never sniff a super bowl.
Baker has shown us what he can do with elite talent around him. He’s also shown here and elsewhere that things fall apart for him when that talent pool is depleted. That’s not a good argument to pay him a disproportionate percent of the cap.
Baker has always been willing to bet on himself. It seems reasonable for Licht to let Baker bet on himself this year, and maybe again next year with the franchise tag.
July 18th, 2026 at 12:28 pm
Bucs fans whining about paying mayfield is hilarious. Because we’re known for our QB play/longevity here in T town. lol
We’re gonna end up with Brisett and a rookie QB that never pans out, until a decade goes by and we spend for another super.
Rinse and repeat
July 18th, 2026 at 12:49 pm
Those stats are crazy! 15 more tds then the next guy? Doesn’t td’s throws count? It does the last time I looked! Prescott ain’t sh!+..
July 18th, 2026 at 1:10 pm
Do you remember the feeling you got when Tom Brady left and they brought John Wolford and Baker Mayfield in to compete with Kyle Trask to see who would start at the QB position? Nobody here thought those guys were 50 million a year franchise QBs. The problem is nobody found something better than Mayfield and he achieved the goals he was initially brought in to do. Credit to him but a fail on the GM. The same could be said about multiple positions.
July 18th, 2026 at 1:19 pm
I think he’ll get paid just because of Netflix. Am I a Baker fan? Yes, and there’s no doubt he gives it his all. However, he’s thrown 27 red zone interceptions and I’d be very leery of that surgically repaired left shoulder.
July 18th, 2026 at 1:40 pm
Just got into the show. Pay this man.
July 18th, 2026 at 1:57 pm
The math is simple folks
Bucs pay Bake 33 Mil this-Franchise at 50 Mil next and Franchise again at 60. This equals 143 mil.
Bucs renegotiate current deal and pay well north of 150 mil for the same 3 years
Plus Bucs retain flexibility if the next HC wants a different QB
July 18th, 2026 at 2:17 pm
Also, with the full starting offensive line Baker could go through a lot of the season without being sacked. All he needs to do is slide instead of being tackled a little bit more and there’s almost 0 risk of him getting injured. If the linemen go out injured of course that’s out the window but we’ll see if that happens…
July 18th, 2026 at 2:26 pm
Baker has quite a bit more support as a top 10 quarterback than people think. Chris Simms has him at number 10. And since the Jeremy Fowler top 10 release, I heard Mark Schlereth say that he would put Mayfield at 10. Rich Eisen just did a top 10 and while he didn’t settle on Baker in the top 10, he seriously considered it in his words. And that’s coming off the injury riddled down year.
July 18th, 2026 at 2:31 pm
Big that with comparisons
Those are old contracts that do not reflect what those contracts would be in 2026
MARKET PRICES!
My guess is that he will have a new contract to start training camp.
July 18th, 2026 at 2:45 pm
Not old contracts all current numbers SB-Bucs ride out the year on the 33 mil.
July 18th, 2026 at 2:54 pm
Todd … then Baker is going to hit the market in 2027
Insulting to not renegotiate a new contract for 2026 and the future.
July 18th, 2026 at 3:01 pm
Pay the man! $50 M per year. He deserves that for taking the past 3 years on a huge discount! Who do you get to replace him? Pay him!
July 18th, 2026 at 3:06 pm
Continued… He’s a true team leader! He never quits! He carries the O when necessary, often to his detriment! Pay him! Repeating… Who do you get to replace him?????
July 18th, 2026 at 3:11 pm
@ derwood, im sorry but i must be missing your point.. The gm made a mistake??
July 18th, 2026 at 3:15 pm
Uh, not so fast @Todd …that would be 80 million in ’27 with the FT and accelerated dead money and 40mil in ’26.
July 18th, 2026 at 3:20 pm
Baker signed a 100 mil contract and this is the lat year at 33 mil
The Franchise Tag next year is 50.3 mil
The Franchise Tag the following year is about 60 mil
That is 143 mil over the next 3
These numbers are all available at over the cap-read them
July 18th, 2026 at 3:37 pm
Defense Rules … those teams won and got to the SB because of superior coaching staffs, HC in particular.
NE also benefitted from one of the softest schedules in years.
Sure the money they are making helps but Baker has been making close to Darnold money. Bowles can’t hold MacDonalds or Vrabels jockstrap.
July 18th, 2026 at 3:38 pm
A background concern I have is that I’ve heard that Bowles is one of the lowest-paid coaches. Is that why they’re keeping him? Is that why they could not keep Coen, because an OC can’t make as much as the head man? And did they really give Evans a big offer after giving him his previous, brief Buc-for-Life contract? They’ve been apparently lavish with some lesser stars, but perhaps not the top end. The Brady contract is mentioned frequently here. Does anyone really believe that it was not a stunt contract made in surrealistic circumstances as opposed to a model for normal negotiating?
July 18th, 2026 at 3:50 pm
You need to take a look at the near 30 million in dead money. We cannot franchise tag Baker without him costing 80 million next year due to the dead money. That’s insane and so is letting him go and owing 30 million for absolutely nothing. We have put ourselves in the position where we must sign him or fail miserably as a franchise. I would think he will give us the opportunity to sign him at a fair AAV. That’s most likely somewhere in the mid 50’s and he’s going to want at least 4-5 year’s commitment. I see no reason not to do it and not doing it is akin to organizational suicide. We have the money to make up the difference next year as the salary cap climbs and can split the dead money across the length of the contract.
July 18th, 2026 at 3:59 pm
How many of the QB’s making 50+ million a year wear offered that much after a collapse from 5-1 to 8-9?
July 18th, 2026 at 3:59 pm
This is ridiculous. Go look at their interceptions the last 3 years. Baker leads the others by 9, 10 and 14. Then use your brain to analyze how many games are one score games in the NFL. Any different results of we turn over ball 3-4 times less each of the past 3 seasons. If we got those results, pay Baker like these guys. If not don’t.
July 18th, 2026 at 4:08 pm
I think they don’t want to pay him just yet. If he balls out this year and has great success yes he will have leverage but he would have earned it. If he plays bad or gets hurt then the bucs made a good decision. Todd’s seat is on fire not warm fire. Our team collapsed and Bakers was a part of that. He gives it all but maybe it’s not good enough. If the offense is great and we lose because of defense. Zac will be the new coach he will gush over Mayfield and get him paid. It’s a win win for the Bucs. When not if Todd is fired and our offense and defense sucked. A new coach may want a diggerent direction and not be saddled with a huge contract they have to trade.
July 18th, 2026 at 5:10 pm
Buc’s need to sign the dude before or during training camp!
July 18th, 2026 at 5:28 pm
TBbucsfan… that’s fair. Something to that.
I’ve also watched Love throw a couple pick 6s from inside his own 20 that I have never seen Baker do.
Most of Bakers INTs, the D has had a chance to stop the opposition and has not. When Mahomes and the SB Champ Darnold have as many INTs as Baker… it becomes a team problem as much as a QB problem.
Not absolving Baker, he needs less TOs, but the INT thing doesn’t necessarily swing the argument the other way. Needs research as you say and even then there will be context outside the QB control we can’t quantify.
July 18th, 2026 at 5:58 pm
How many QB’s get offered $50 million a year after an 8-9 season?
July 18th, 2026 at 6:05 pm
No. Football is a team sport. Would rather sign Sam Darnold.
July 18th, 2026 at 6:15 pm
How many players get fifty million a year after a losing season?
July 18th, 2026 at 6:29 pm
The dead money would only apply if we let Baker walk. So, Baker counts $30 million next year whether he plays for us or not. So, we will be resigning him you would think. Unless the Glazers are going to wait and see and let the new coach and GM decide if they want to keep him or not. That makes sense.
-David
July 18th, 2026 at 6:46 pm
Do QB’s with a losing record typically get 50 million a year contracts?
July 18th, 2026 at 6:54 pm
I like how Netflix whitewashed the Dolphins game. No mention of it.