2026 Goal: Worry More About Scoring Points
July 8th, 2026
Focus on fundamentals, please.
Usually, this same trope comes from defensive coaches way, way too often. And long ago Joe was just sick of it.
Sadly, Bucs coach Todd Bowles is afflicted with this same disease, though the inflammation is not nearly as bad as the virus lousy Lovie Smith carried around.
Way, way too many coaches think the magic elixir to solve any team’s ills is winning the turnover battle. Not first playing good football, not first blocking, not first tackling, but it’s all about winning the turnover battle.
Last Joe checked, the team with the most points wins, not the team with the most takeaways.
Turnovers are way, way too unpredictable. They often are as much an accident as they are technique. A defense has to hope the opponent is sloppy with the football.
Joe noticed last year, by way of handicapper-turned-stathead Warren Sharp in his Warren Sharp’s 2026 Football Preview, the Bucs did well in the turnover battle but lost the war of wins and losses.
Sharp is not bullish on the Bucs this fall and he believes they were lucky to win eight games last year.
With injuries and offensive performance such as we saw in 2025, and the struggles for Bowles’ defense, how did the Bucs actually win eight games in 2025?
Luck and beating bad teams.
Turnovers, fumble luck, and penalties are the three massive non-repeating gifts, and the Bucs were handed the fortunate end of all three.
Tampa Bay finished +7 in turnover margin, the #6 mark in the NFL.
Their turnover-related EPA of +35.34 ranked #5.
They recovered 3.6 more fumbles than expected, the #7 rate in the league. Opponents lost 10 fumbles (#4 most).
The Bucs recovered 72% of their own offensive fumbles and also recovered 48% of opposing fumbles.
Think about it: The Bucs were +7 in turnovers last year and missed the playoffs. In 2024, the Bucs were -5 in turnovers and they won 10 games.
Rather than banking on so much hope an opponent is sloppy securing the ball, why not put as much if not more effort into playing good, solid, fundamental football? Block. Tackle. Hustle. Score.
Joe seems to recall Tom Brady throwing three picks on the road in the NFC championship and the Bucs finished the game as NFC champs.
There is much more to football than takeaways. And Joe’s tired of so many putting so much emphasis on turnovers and overlooking or ignoring so much else.
July 8th, 2026 at 12:47 am
Yeah way too many factors to just focus on one arbitrary stat. And the only stat that ultimately rules… Is what Mr Winston was eatin. W’s.. Thanks Joes for filling in this football void that is rapidly closing. It’s right around the corner. Go Bucs.
July 8th, 2026 at 1:16 am
Well duh. If the offense doesn’t score more than 30 a game, Bowles defense is gonna lose the game for you. Even when Arians was a proper head coach, lots of games Bwoles defense gave up 25+ points.
When you don’t have a defense that can shut down wheelchair riding Kirk Cousins, you better be able to get a 40 burger a game if you want post season sniffs
July 8th, 2026 at 3:12 am
A good Defense forces 3 and outs on a regular basis
Turnovers mask a bad defense but only so long as your luck holds out!
July 8th, 2026 at 4:08 am
Remember when Bowles was busy “helping” the offense at the end of last year and they scored a lot less points? What does that tell you?
July 8th, 2026 at 5:15 am
“Takeaways are nice but they are far from an absolute they will win you a game alone. Think about it: The Bucs were +7 in turnovers last year and missed the playoffs. In 2024 the Bucs were -5 in turnovers and they won 10 games.“
They don’t mean sh*t if you cannot turn sudden changes of possession into points.
I posted in a totally different thread, our offense scored 3 points off our last 11 forced takeaways.
All of you trying to turn this into something else lol
That’s fnckin terrible.
Buffalo game, 3 turnovers forced for a total of 3 points. Terrible
July 8th, 2026 at 5:25 am
At the end of the game whoever scores the most points wins the game. Nothing else matters. Defense can limit points but if the opponent outscores you they win. End of story.
July 8th, 2026 at 5:41 am
“At the end of the game whoever scores the most points wins the game. Nothing else matters. Defense can limit points but if the opponent outscores you they win. End of story.“
Why do you think a pick 6 is worse/better than just a pick? As a matter of fact, what’s the 6 in “pick 6” even mean?
Y’all can’t be serious
July 8th, 2026 at 6:08 am
Despite what Jose says – turnovers (or the lack of) played a HUGE part in determining wins and losses during the Bucs 2025 season:
ATL – Even – Won
HOU – Even – Won
NYJ – +2 – Won
PHI – -2 – Lost
SEA – +2 – Won
SF – +2 – Won
DET – Even – Lost
NO – +3 – Won
NE – +1 – Lost
BUF – +1 – Lost
LAR – -2 – Lost
ARI – +2 – Won
NO – Even – Lost
ATL – Even – Lost
CAR – -1 – Lost
MIA – -3 – Lost
CAR – +2 – Won
Bucs were 6-2 when they had more turnovers than the opponent (4-0 when the differential was +2)…
Bucs were 2-3 when neither team had a turnover advantage
Bucs were 0-4 when the opponent had more turnovers
July 8th, 2026 at 6:33 am
Turnovers are kinda fun to watch though. Well…half the time anyway. They make a lot more difference at the very end of a game than the beginning.
I think Zac Robinson will make a very noticable difference.
Special teams usually matters more than turnovers. I like our new coach there.
July 8th, 2026 at 6:40 am
Correction – 6-0 when the Bucs had +2 or better turnover differential
July 8th, 2026 at 7:30 am
‘Joe seems to recall Tom Brady throwing three picks on the road in the NFC championship and the Bucs finished the game as NFC champs.’
I remember that game also Joe, but there was a little more to that win. Brady did throw 3 INTs in the 2nd half, but our defense held the Packers to punts on the last 2 of those (gave up a TD on the 1st one).
Our defense created 2 takeaways, and our offense scored 2 TDs on those. So turnovers results in a 7 pt advantage for the Bucs. And o ya, we won by 5 pts, so turnovers were in fact a huge part of that Bucs’ win.
Oh wait, we’d be giving our Todd Bowles’ defense credit for doing something right. Nope, must’ve been some other reason that we won that game.
July 8th, 2026 at 7:34 am
“Our defense created 2 takeaways, and our offense scored 2 TDs on those. So turnovers results in a 7 pt advantage for the Bucs.”
The Scotty Miller play came off a SMB int, lol my how we forget
July 8th, 2026 at 7:48 am
WBL
great post!!!!!
offense didnt get the job done….simple as that!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
July 8th, 2026 at 8:01 am
You can’t score points if you’re turning it over.
2020- the year Bucs won SB, Mayfield’s Browns won 11 games and a playoff game.
In a late December game that year vs Jets and Sam Darnold, Mayfield had the ball twice with under 6 minutes to play in a close game with opportunities to take the lead and/or tie the game.
He fumbled away the ball on a sack on 1 possession and fumbled away the ball on a QB sneak on the Jets’ 15 yard line. with a minute to go.
If Mayfield can correct those 2 flaws in his game – holding on to the ball too long and taking sacks, and fumbling …he could be an elite QB.
July 8th, 2026 at 8:41 am
When special teams set the opposition up at the 50 year line bad things happen. Either you give up a score and go down by 7, or they punt the ball to the 5 yard line and the offense has to drive 95 yards to score. This happened most games last year until they finally gave up and gave the other team the ball at the 35.
July 8th, 2026 at 9:02 am
Put all the lipstick you want to on that pig. The results are still the same.
Winning a putrid division then getting bounced at home in round one doesn’t move the needle for most fans.
The only people happy with a one and done are the Glazers. They like the revenue.
Bowles couldn’t even accomplish that in 2025. Regression at its finest.
When a win is needed, Todd finds a way to lose. He’s the Sultan of Suck!
July 8th, 2026 at 9:14 am
DING… DING… DING… DING…. DING!
July 8th, 2026 at 10:06 am
Pickgrin, good post!
Quality article, Jose! (Testing that, lol…feels weird)
July 8th, 2026 at 10:15 am
So, when it comes to overall turnovers, I think of Jon Gruden a,d how he challenged the Defense to score 10 touchdowns in his first year.
That’s the kind of turnovers we need.But this defense is too inexperienced to be challenged that way.
Joe is right. Focus on proper technique. This is why we need a dedicated DC.
Mike Tomlin pretty much always had a DC with the Steelers, even though he was also a defensive coach:
Dick LeBeau (2007–2014)
Keith Butler (2015–2021)
Teryl Austin (2022 – 2025)
The result? Strong defense and no losing seasons.
July 8th, 2026 at 10:44 am
Well this is certainly a sobering analysis regarding the 6-2 start and it gives some credence to the folks that think we’ll win 5 or less games this fall.
I still fall into the 7 to 9 crowd.
July 8th, 2026 at 11:46 am
How about a defense that’s a little more drought than wet toilet paper?
Punts are turnovers. If the other team can’t score they can’t win.
July 8th, 2026 at 12:34 pm
Yeah, but,………….SACKS!!!!!!!!
July 8th, 2026 at 1:03 pm
Bowles idea of getting a derailed train back on the tracks is to hit it with an asteroid.
July 8th, 2026 at 1:20 pm
How do you base last season’s results ,with this season’s outcome ? (Seattle, NE)
July 8th, 2026 at 1:51 pm
For like the 9th time now the team we will be fielding this year will be completely different than the team we fielded last year. The talent level is almost literally night and day between the backups we had on the field and the starters we will have this year as well as all the dead wood that was replaced like Reddick. Sadly, at some points Lavonte and his bad knees counted as dead wood too. People were getting open outrunning our linebackers across the field with impunity. If we avoid injuries, that won’t happen this year. Plus Todd obviously knows the new thing with defenses is running more nickel and dime and I’m convinced that’s a key reason we drafted Keionte Scott. On offense, just having our monstrous offensive line healthy changes and upgrades *EVERYTHING*. We will run everywhere which will dramatically open up the pass.
July 8th, 2026 at 3:09 pm
Its amazing anyone can be paid as much as Todd Bowles, underachieve and still keep his job. There is something seriously wrong with the world!
July 8th, 2026 at 3:39 pm
“There is much more to football than takeaways. And Joe’s tired of so many putting so much emphasis on turnovers and overlooking or ignoring so much else.”
Really Joe ? I haven’t observed you guys putting much emphasis on turnovers.
Sacks from the edge, yes. Pass yards allowed, yes. Neither of which statistically improve w/l percentage.
It’s almost as if you pick things to focus on that make the D look bad but continually gloss over the offenses struggles. Hmmm 🤔
July 8th, 2026 at 4:36 pm
“It’s almost as if you pick things to focus on that make the D look bad but continually gloss over the offenses struggles. Hmmm 🤔“
Weird no? Like who in their football minds says:
“There is much more to football than takeaways. And Joe’s tired of so many putting so much emphasis on turnovers and overlooking or ignoring so much else.“
When they’ve tracked data all the way back to the 70s and determine win percentage with how that data impacts a teams win percentage.
Example like the Dolphins game
We went into that game with a 67% win pct as the favorites to win.
After the 1st turnover it dropped to a range of 40-45% because it was early game turnover
The 2nd turnover it dropped our win pct to 20-25%
By time our 3rd and final turnover happened later in the game out win probably was 0%
Yet the focus was on Ewers and a the Dolphins who scored 10 point immediately off the heels of 2 of our 3 offensive turnovers.
Joe doesn’t want them to matter, but they do and there is no way of spinning it to lesser importance.
July 8th, 2026 at 7:06 pm
Those NFL linebackers and defensive backs can be sneaky dudes. And really big and strong and fast. Sometimes they win- they love picking the ball and screaming “OSKIE” which tells your defensive teammates it’s time to switch from being tacklers to being blockers. They can turn downright nasty. Think of Nelson running over Rattler with the batted pass pick he stomped all over him.
I’d rather have 16 picks and 29 ppg than 11 picks and 22 points a game.
Any day of the week.