Baker Mayfield Doesn’t Care About Third-And-Long
June 22nd, 2026
Gunslinger.
Baker Mayfield has no fear.
Joe remembers when America’s Quarterback, Jameis Winston, was talking to Dirk Koetter in an interview at Jameis’ Pro Day in Tallahassee. Koetter later recounted how Jameis told him, “I’m not afraid to make any throw.” Koetter responded, “You should be.”
No, Jameis sure wasn’t afraid. Defender standing right there? So what? LOL
Now Mayfield doesn’t throw near the picks Jameis did, but it appears stats show Mayfield has a similar don’t-give-a-s(p)it attitude about throwing. He doesn’t care about the down or distance.
Per Tony Holzman-Escarenos, a senior researcher for the NFL, only two quarterbacks last year converted more first downs on third-and-long situations than Mayfield. And both only had one more first down converted than Mayfield.
Jordan Love and Drake Maye (30 times) converted or scored touchdowns on third-and-long (seven or more yards) more than Mayfield (29). Mayfield was tied with Bo Nix.
Stunning to Joe is that a quarterback who was so good at converting so many third-and-longs struggled in so many games last season. That usually does not add up.
Love, Maye and Nix all made the playoffs and Maye got his team to a Super Bowl. Mayfield watched the playoffs on his couch, just like you and Joe.
This stat also tells Joe either the Bucs’ running game wasn’t getting the job done early in a set of downs and/or Mayfield wasn’t as proficient on first-down throws.
June 22nd, 2026 at 7:34 am
Sign him! Let’s get this over with. This is a franchise quarterback. Lucky to have him.
June 22nd, 2026 at 7:40 am
Defense Rules says we might just have us a top 10 defense this season. Joe’s have been reporting on our new OC(experienced game caller), our top 3 offensive line, and our receivers- Godwin, Egbuka, JMac, Tez, 6’3” rookie, Otten, rookie tight end, Gainwell, Bucky, Tucker. That’s 10 playmakers. This OLine led an offense that averaged nearly 30 points per game. I think they know they can be even better. The team is getting obscene amounts of disrespect nationally. Our special teams should step up. Anybody sleeping on this team is about to be jolted awake. Summer is here. Fall is coming. We’ve got us a good football team and I ain’t whistling Dixie.
June 22nd, 2026 at 7:59 am
Everyone of those QBs made the playoffs. I wonder how many of Baker’s 29 first downs occurred during the 6-2 part of the season vs. the 2-7 stretch?
June 22nd, 2026 at 8:02 am
Except LA Chargeres (Herbert) and Detroit Lions (Goff) and I don’t believe anyone would argue they are franchise QBs.
June 22nd, 2026 at 8:02 am
Pay him.
June 22nd, 2026 at 8:25 am
Remember when it was 3rd and 2 in the 4th quarter versus Atlanta and Baker cant make a simple pass to extend the drive and run out the clock. Good times. Maybe he needed it to be 3rd and 20 so he wouldn’t throw it at the WRs feet. Same thing happened in NO when he threw the ball behind the 1st down marker at Ottons feet. So many examples of him missing the simple throw in 4th quarter.
People keep saying pay him, well hes making 40 mil this season, hes already getting paid. Enjoy it while it lasts Bake fans, this is his last season here.
June 22nd, 2026 at 8:34 am
Jameis told him, “I’m not afraid to make any throw.” Dang…that was a harbinger of things to come!
June 22nd, 2026 at 8:48 am
It’s a sign of ineffective 1st and 2nd downs
June 22nd, 2026 at 8:48 am
“I wonder how many of Baker’s 29 first downs occurred during the 6-2 part of the season vs. the 2-7 stretch?”
17 conversions came in the 8 games before the bye.
12 conversions came in the 9 after the bye.
There’s more that plays into this and correlated with our ability/inability to move the chains.
June 22nd, 2026 at 8:58 am
But, where is the rest of the story, Joe?
How many times did Baker take a sack in those situations that pushed the Bucs out of field goal range in close games? Most of the games the Bucs lost last season were close games, and going backwards hurts when it takes a kicker on a tear like McLaughlin out of field goal range.
Now, a Joe recently reported how little separation receivers were getting which put pressure on Baker to hold the ball.
And, the OL was not his friend when he dropped back in those situations.
And, while White and Tucker ripped of some big runs in such situations when given the chance, the Bucs overwhelmingly predictably passed in those situations to the point that other teams sold out to rush Baker, so there is a reason to have a new OC this season.
June 22nd, 2026 at 9:33 am
Just noticed–it doesn’t say HOW many third and longs were attempted. I’d venture we had a LOT more than the others
June 22nd, 2026 at 9:42 am
The Bucs spent most of their time in 3rd and 7 or 3rd and 8 so that makes sense. There were offensive line injuries all season long not just for the losing streak.
June 22nd, 2026 at 10:15 am
The Bucs need Baker and he knows it. The Bucs have had him for four years on a discounted contract and have to pay him what he is worth – a top ten quarterback.
June 22nd, 2026 at 10:40 am
The only reason this team was not 3-14 was Baker Mayfield. This fanbase is delusion.
June 22nd, 2026 at 11:06 am
Love, Maye, and Nix all play on better overall teams with far superior defenses! So it does add up. All had better running games except maybe the Broncos.
June 22nd, 2026 at 12:03 pm
3rd and 28
June 22nd, 2026 at 12:17 pm
This stat also tells Joe either the Bucs’ running game wasn’t getting the job done early in a set of downs and/or Mayfield wasn’t as proficient on first-down throws.
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Or penalties put them behind the sticks.
June 22nd, 2026 at 12:23 pm
No worry. Bucs will go 4-13 this year.
June 22nd, 2026 at 12:35 pm
The only stat that matters: “Mayfield watched the playoffs on his couch”
But here we are arguing that Baker deserves $50+ million per season?
Makes absolutely no sense. The really good QBs don’t even deserve that much per year. No one player should be paid that much.
Very soon the common man will be completely priced out from going to the games.
If it keeps going this direction we could see a strike.
June 22nd, 2026 at 12:37 pm
Give Baker credit for having good rushing numbers on 3rd and long – of those 29 1st downs, 8 came from running, and he averaged nearly 9 yards per rush in those situations.
But passing on 3rd down – not so impressive. On 3rd and 7-9, his passer rating (did you know he has the highest passer rating EVER in the playoffs!) is 58.2. Although on 3rd and 10 or more it does jump up to 91 – which again is all about dumping off the ball to a RB for 7 yards to boost the competition percentage and passer rating. QBR doesn’t break down in this much detail, which is a shame since it would tell us stuff like intended air yards – that would be a good number to know.
Split: 3rd & 7-9
Passing — Cmp: 17 | Att: 32 | Inc: 15 | Cmp%: 53.13 | Yds: 191 | TD: 0 | 1D: 11 | Int: 1 | Rate: 58.2 | Sk: 6 | Sk Yds: 46 | Y/A: 6.0 | AY/A: 4.56
Rushing — Att: 8 | Yds: 79 | Y/A: 9.9 | TD: 0 | 1D: 5
Split: 3rd & 10+
Passing — Cmp: 24 | Att: 44 | Inc: 20 | Cmp%: 54.55 | Yds: 307 | TD: 2 | 1D: 10 | Int: 0 | Rate: 91.8 | Sk: 7 | Sk Yds: 49 | Y/A: 7.0 | AY/A: 7.89
Rushing — Att: 7 | Yds: 57 | Y/A: 8.1 | TD: 0 | 1D: 3
June 22nd, 2026 at 12:47 pm
Looking at more of Baker’s splits… interesting stuff.
When did he play his worst? When the Bucs were leading.
When did he play his best? When the Bucs were losing (ie, he got a bunch of garbage time stats)
Despite being week 6 MVP, his worst quarter was the 4th quarter.
He was more effective under center and ran playaction – he was least effective from shotgun. That isn’t about Baker, that’s about the dumb OC not using play-action. Hopefully Zac goes back to 2024 and see’s how Coen used it so effectively.
June 22nd, 2026 at 12:54 pm
And finally, here’s the stat that tells a lot…
Baker was at his worse when he held the ball. I never looked up this stat before, but it 100% complete verifies what I saw in 2024, that Baker was at his best when he got the ball out quickly. His numbers from 2024 and 2025, show that when he had 2.5+ seconds in the pocket, his passer rating plummets. That’s happy feet Baker.
Passer rating – Time in pocket < 2.5s
2024: 116.1
2025: 95.1
Passer rating – Time in pocket 2.5s +
2024: 88.9
2025: 83.0
That's not bashing Baker, but it does again verify what you see when you watch the games. Have Baker get rid of the ball quickly, and he's a lot more likely to be successful.
June 22nd, 2026 at 1:03 pm
No matter what side of the ball the Bucs are on, the offense has a good chance of converting on 3rd and long.
Fire bowles.