Warren Sharp: Bucs Have No. 10 Strongest Schedule
May 12th, 2026
Uphill climb.
So if you believe one of the top handicappers in Las Vegas who has transitioned into a stathead, the Bucs will have to earn their wins this fall.
The full NFL schedule is expected to be released Thursday night. Oh, Joe suspects a couple of Bucs games will be part of schedule leaks in the next two days, especially if the Bucs will be playing in a nationally televised game in prime time (Joe hopes not) or a Saturday game or an international game.
The networks have their upfronts this week (where networks bring out their stars to help pimp shows to advertising executives in the audience). FOX had theirs yesterday and they announced a few games as a result.
Networks also like to pimp upcoming games on their morning news shows.
Noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp says the Bucs have the No. 10 toughest schedule. Times and dates don’t matter to him.
Why is Joe bringing this up? Because Sharp calculates strength of schedule far differently than most. Rather than looking at last year’s records to develop a strength of schedule, Sharp goes by this season’s projected win totals, Sharp typed on his website “Sharp Football Analysis.”
Basing strength of schedule on last year’s records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient.
NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development.
Additionally, the NFL’s 17-game season is a small sample size.
Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.
These factors make prior season records a poor indicator of future performance.
Statistical analysis supports this.
There, Sharp breaks down how, over the course of most of this century, basing strength of schedule on the prior season’s records was inaccurate.
If the Bucs have one of the toughest schedules in the league, that suggests to Joe our friends in the desert aren’t banking on the Bucs to be a double-digit win team.
May 12th, 2026 at 12:23 am
New formula or not, these never work out the way they’re supposed to. Kudos to him to not use that ridiculous outdated model, but there are way too many variables to prognosticate anything with any kind of accuracy.
May 12th, 2026 at 2:44 am
You can’t really predict SOS anyway because of injuries.
Im sure nobody wanted to play us after we beat Seattle in their crib and everyone wanted to play us at the end of the season.
May 12th, 2026 at 3:16 am
Last year, the Bucs played the AFC East and NFC West who had a total of 77 wins. This year, the Bucs play the AFC North and NFC North who had a total of 67 wins. And, last year, the Bucs played three division winners from the year before, whereas this year the Bucs play three second place teams. So, it doesn’t seem too bad if you look at it like that,
And, while the graph shows the Bucs with the 10th toughest schedule, the difficulty grades of teams 11 through 20 are clustered very close to the Bucs grade, and that includes the Falcons. The Saints are shown having a much easier schedule, and the Panthers are shown having a much tougher schedule.
The Bucs win 9 games and surpass the 8.5 win over/under if they just beat the teams that finished 2025 below 0.500. With a healthy team, a better offensive coordinator, and important improvements on defense, the Bucs should be a much better team this year, and they should win handily against this schedule – if someone can just keep that bastard Murphy out of the mix!
May 12th, 2026 at 5:39 am
It’s really sad that all we are is a .500 ball club at best. Vegas rules all.
They know how putrid Bowles is and what his losing tendencies are based on historical facts. Not Pom Pom waiving lemming speak.
Todd is a boil on our backside that needs to be lanced.
May 12th, 2026 at 6:07 am
Sharp Analysis … ‘NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development. Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.’
Warren Sharp is 100% right, but that only tells me that prognostications in May probably bear limited resemblance to final end-of-year results. Love his line “Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck” (which serves as a great caveat for limiting the validity of the final rankings), but he also didn’t mention injuries. That’s probably as much as anything a driving factor in how well teams do on the season. And especially injuries to key starters.
May 12th, 2026 at 6:38 am
Panthers have 3rd toughest schedule, Falcons a marginally weaker schedule than the Bucs and the Saints have the 2nd weakest schedule. That must be why Vegas is so much higher on the Saints winning the division than pundits are. Seems Vegas is not impressed with the offseason moves the Panthers made:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +155 to +175
New Orleans Saints: +280 to +340
Atlanta Falcons: +270 to +400
Carolina Panthers: +300 to +425
May 12th, 2026 at 6:39 am
2022 (3-3)
Week 1 – SNF @ Cowboys – 19-3 – W
Week 4 – SNF vs Chiefs – 31-41 – L
Week 8 – TNF vs Ravens – 22-27 – L
Week 10 – Munich vs Seahawks – 21-16 – W
Week 13 – MNF vs Saints – 17-16 – W
Week 16 – SNF @ Cardinals – 19-16 – W
Wild Card – MNF vs Cowboys – 14-31 – L
2023 (1-2)
Week 3 – MNF vs Eagles – 11-25 – L
Week 8 – TNF @ Bills – 18-24 – L
Wild Card – MNF vs Eagles – 32-9 – W
2024 (0-5)
Week 5 – TNF @ Falcons – 30-36 – L
Week 7 – MNF vs Ravens – 31-41 – L
Week 9 – MNF @ Chiefs – 24-30 – L
Week 16 – SNF @ Cowboys – 24-26 – L
Wild Card – SNF vs Commanders – 20-23 – L
2025 (1-3)
Week 2 – MNF @ Texans – 20-19 – W
Week 7 – MNF @ Lions – 9-2 – L
Week 12 – SNF @ Rams – 7-34 – L
Week 15 – TNF vs Falcons – L
With Brady, we were 3-3 in primetime games, and without him, we are currently 2-9 in primetime games. Even including 2022, we are only 5-12 in primetime games with Bowles leading the charge. I have no idea how a team can be so consistently bad in the biggest games.
May 12th, 2026 at 6:46 am
“With Brady, we were 3-3 in primetime games, and without him, we are currently 2-9 in primetime games.”
Weren’t there other guys playing on that team with Brady. You know, the ones Gronk said made it the most talented team he ever played on?
May 12th, 2026 at 6:55 am
“”Weren’t there other guys playing on that team with Brady. You know, the ones Gronk said made it the most talented team he ever played on?””
Think you missed the point here bud. As you said the most talented team Gronk has ever played on with the best QB of all time and they could barely scrape up a .500 prime time record. That’s a Todd Bowles led team for ya. Thanks for helping make the point.
May 12th, 2026 at 6:58 am
Thanks ScottyMack. Nailed it. This team now is a lot more talented than it was last year but has a ways to go to catch up to THAT team.
May 12th, 2026 at 7:13 am
Vegas “rules,” err buys, with money, not knowledge, which sadly makes their predictions more bankable
May 12th, 2026 at 8:11 am
Bruce Arians was head coach when Gronk was on the team. Not Bowles.
May 12th, 2026 at 8:17 am
Looks like it’s more “‘middle third” than especially hard, judging by the chart
May 12th, 2026 at 8:43 am
This team sucks at prime time gams better off just doing 1pm games so they don’t crap the bed on national TV.
May 12th, 2026 at 9:54 am
No one really cares other than the inmates of this asylum. But it really doesn’t matter, Bowles would find a way to lose to the USF JV team if they had one. Maybe a couple wins late in the year after Bowles “steps away from the game” by mutual agreement with the Glazers.
2-15
Adios, Todd and Jason.
May 12th, 2026 at 10:30 am
If the Bucs win 7 games this season, it will be a success for them!
May 12th, 2026 at 1:26 pm
5-12 is coming!
May 12th, 2026 at 1:30 pm
2-15!