Uphill climb.

So if you believe one of the top handicappers in Las Vegas who has transitioned into a stathead, if the Bucs are going to have to earn their wins this fall.

The full NFL schedule is expected to be released Thursday night. Oh, Joe suspects a couple of Bucs scheduled games will be leaked in the next two days, especially if the Bucs will be playing in a nationally televised game like a primetime game (Joe hopes not) or a Saturday game or an international game.

The networks have their upfronts this week (where networks bring out their stars to help pimp shows to advertising executives in the audience). FOX had theirs yesterday and they announced a few games as a result.

Networks also like to pimp upcoming games on their morning news shows, too.

So when we know who the Bucs will play when, it will give us a better idea how strong their schedule is. But if you listen to noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp, the Bucs have the No. 10 toughest schedule.

Why is Joe bringing this up from Sharp? Because he calculates strength of schedule far differently than most others. Rather than looking at last year’s records to develop a strength of schedule, Sharp goes by this season’s projected win-totals, Sharp typed on his website “Sharp Football Analysis.”

Basing strength of schedule on last year’s records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient.

NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development.

Additionally, the NFL’s 17-game season is a small sample size.

Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.

These factors make prior season records a poor indicator of future performance.

Statistical analysis supports this.

There, Sharp breaks down how, over the course of most of this century, basing strength of schedule on the prior season’s records was so inaccurate.

If the Bucs have one of the toughest schedules in the league, that suggests to Joe our friends in the desert aren’t banking on the Bucs to be a double-digit win team.