NFL.com: Bucs Finish 8-9, No Playoffs
May 20th, 2026
NFL.com predicts sad season.
If a pair of stenographers typing for the NFL’s house organ are correct, it’s going to be another torturous December around these parts.
Ali Bhanpuri and Tom Blair of NFL.com decided to pick the winner of every game in the NFL this fall. And the Bucs, once again, will finish with a losing record and will miss the playoffs.
If that happens, we have a pretty good idea of how Team Glazer might react.
And both of those guys have the Dixie Chicks winning the division. It’s always the Dixie Chicks for the national media types. When in doubt, it’s the Dixie Chicks.
Some things never change.
Blair states his reason for the Bucs missing the playoffs for the second straight season is that he has Baker Mayfield fatigue. Each year, he banks on Mayfield turning the corner and joining elite quarterbacks in leading their teams to a Super Bowl run.
Blair must have been listening to “The Who.” He said he won’t get fooled again.
I seem to fall for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs every year, and a rollicking 6-3 first half should suck me in again — only for the bottom to fall out with another post-bye slump. The Lions, Chargers and Rams complicate things, but the main culprit is once again an inability to beat division rivals (the Saints in Week 15 and the Falcons in Week 16) down the stretch until a too-little, too-late final gasp, in this case in New Orleans. I’m not completely discounting the possibility that additions made to the defense (Rueben Bain Jr.) or improved health on the O-line keeps the Bucs viable for longer this time around, maybe giving them the chance to flip another one of those NFC South matchups or upset one of the two L.A. squads. In fact, that’s a good note to tuck away for later, when November recency bias takes hold. For now, the lingering disappointment of 2025 is still obviously the most important thing to factor in here.
Joe feels Blair’s pain. The Bucs losing seven of their final nine games really rattled Joe. And Joe isn’t ready to believe the Bucs have better personnel than last year.
If Mayfield can put this team on his back after the bye the way he did in several wins before the bye, Joe would feel a lot better.
Bhanpuri has the Bucs going 3-3 in the crappy NFC South. Blair has the Bucs going 2-4 in crappy NFC South games.
Here is how Bhanpuri and Blair see the Bucs’ season playing out:
Schedule, Ali’s Picks, Tom’s Picks
Week 1: at Bengals L L
Week 2: vs. Browns W W
Week 3: vs. Vikings L W
Week 4: vs. Packers L W
Week 5: at Cowboys W W
Week 6: vs. Steelers W W
Week 7: at Panthers L L
Week 8: vs. Falcons W L
Week 9: at Bears W W
Week 10: BYE — —
Week 11: at Lions L L
Week 12: vs. Panthers W W
Week 13: vs. Chargers W L
Week 14: at Ravens L L
Week 15: vs. Saints W L
Week 16: at Falcons L L
Week 17: vs. Rams L L
Week 18: at Saints L W
Final Record: 8-9 8-9
May 20th, 2026 at 12:23 am
It’s sad but right now we don’t deserve more credibility. Hope I’m wrong though
May 20th, 2026 at 12:39 am
My gut says a 7 win season so I definitely understand and agree with how they foresee this season playing out!
May 20th, 2026 at 1:23 am
Seems about right, unfortunately.
May 20th, 2026 at 1:29 am
Actually, I see about 5-6 wins looking at that schedule.
If that.
May 20th, 2026 at 3:02 am
7-10.. Fire D.E.I. COACH !!! WALK THE PLANK.
May 20th, 2026 at 4:04 am
Predicting in May that the Bucs will go 8-9 for the 2026 season is like predicting that a hurricane will hit Tampa Bay on September 10th. Turns out that’s the most likely day of the year for a hurricane to hit this area, BUT … that’s just a statistical average over many years.
Bruce Arians had a 65-42 record prior to our 2020 SB year. Based on that, Bucs should’ve gotten 9.5 wins in 2020, instead of the 11 wins that we ended up with. And we certainly shouldn’t have won the SB that year given that our pre-season odds were astronomical (+1000).
Bucs are building a good team, and we just have to see how it’ll play out … one game at a time.
May 20th, 2026 at 4:19 am
IF Bowles actually adjusts (for a change) and doesn’t have the same slop for a defensive scheme like we’ve seen the last 2 years, the Bucs COULD be decent.
May 20th, 2026 at 5:34 am
I got them winning 7. All depends on the D
May 20th, 2026 at 6:35 am
Very tough schedule and they still have Bowles, but if they have virtually NO serious injuries-ehh maybe.
May 20th, 2026 at 7:26 am
Weird. It’s almost like those guys use their eyes to tell their brain what’s happening right in front of them.
Only the Pom Pom waivers are capable of suspending reality that is starring them in the face.
Four years of the same approach by the same HC\DC. And the same results.
The Glazers were like Tina Turner and said “Hit me again Ike!”.
May 20th, 2026 at 7:28 am
I don’t know where this 7 crap comes from, we’re a LOT better team than when the season ended. If the offense that put up 38 on Seattle shows up, we’re winning ELEVEN.
May 20th, 2026 at 7:43 am
I agree, if we have the same level of injuries. If we are healthier than last season, we win more games. It’s that simple. We’ve improved the team in a lot of areas from special teams coaching, to offensive coaching to defensive roster improvement.
And it’s not just injuries in general, but injuries to the offensive line. If our offensive line stays intact, and our new defensive players in the front seven make a difference, we will do well.
The trick with all this forecasting is no one knows what all the changes every team made will do for them and how they will gel and so many teams have new coaching.
Just got to watch the games like everybody else. Continue to say last season’s good teams will still be good, last season’s media for teams will still be mediocre and last season’s terrible teams will still be terrible. There’s always percentage of the league that surprises the heck out of everybody. How many people thought we’d have a Patriots / Seahawks super bowl?
May 20th, 2026 at 7:45 am
I want to sound like I know what I’m talking about when it cones to this team, but that would be a lie. Can I see a 6-7 win season? Absolutely. How about a 10-11 win season? Yep, see that too.
To me the biggest factor will be the health of the OL. I know all teams deal with injuries but last year was a little ridiculous. And I honestly think the worst part was when the injuries happened. So many of them were halfway through the first quarter of games as opposed to letting the backup get a week’s worth of practice reps.
And of course the defense….. Asking Kancey to play 14 games and Bain to be worthy of a 1st round pick are not crazy things to ask. But if they both happen we know the defense will be better.
All I can somewhat confidently believe is if we miss the playoffs again get ready for the Mike Tomlin era.
May 20th, 2026 at 7:47 am
Neither of them are wrong on any of their points.
I don’t have us starting 1-3 tho, quite the opposite. The Bowles teams are good out of the gate, which of course would seem to me that every team is at its most positive at the beginning of the season from a mental stand point. Except for the bengals. I think we start off well again.
But there’s no denying the team will falter mid year and then you add in the nemesis like lambs, lions and ravens. We also aren’t winning against the bears in Chicago/Ben Johnson. So there’s 4 losses. That’s 13 games remaining. Does anyone see Todd going 10-3 in those games that isn’t drinking the koolaid? It’s not realistic
So yeah 8 or nine wins would seem to line up.
May 20th, 2026 at 8:33 am
Hey, on the positive side, if you take the games where at least one of the two prognosticators says they’ll win, the Bucs would finish with an 11-6 record. Let’s go with that!
May 20th, 2026 at 8:36 am
8 wins if we are lucky to be honest. I am feeling a Jameis-esque 5 – 12 type of season and quite honestly they could have had that record last year without some serious luck
May 20th, 2026 at 8:38 am
Weeks 5, 9, 12 are Prime Time games. All Losses.
8-9
Subtract 3
5-12
That’s the right answer.
THANKFULLY this will be a down year, so Bowles can be fired.
May 20th, 2026 at 8:47 am
8 wins is probably the ceiling. 4 wins is probably the floor.
May 20th, 2026 at 8:47 am
Should have been a 5 or 6 win team last season without some luck.
May 20th, 2026 at 8:49 am
Its no trick picking Bowles to be 8-9. His entire career is a litany of 7 to 9 win seasons. Its who he is.
May 20th, 2026 at 8:54 am
This really all depends on the health of the Bucs o-line…..
If they protect Baker, or often should be very potent.
Regardless, I do see our defense being a lot better this year.
May 20th, 2026 at 8:57 am
We dont deserve the benefit of the doubt….i still question the leadership and mental toughness of this team….
will 1 L turn into 2?…will coaches and players have a sense of urgency?..idk
if they take it 1 game at a time, i see 12 WINS….if they start drinking the kool-aid like they did lkast year they may not win 8games….
huge year for baker and bowles
GO BUCS!!!!
May 20th, 2026 at 9:03 am
I’m down for 11 wins. Having a healthy offensive line and a competent offensive coordinator will do wonders for our win total.
May 20th, 2026 at 10:12 am
Who the hell knows!
Who had us beating the Seahawks and 49ers last season?
Who had us losing to the Quinn Ewers led Dolphins?
May 20th, 2026 at 10:28 am
I agree with Defense Rules.
On the topic of Baker Mayfield:
“Each year, he banks on Mayfield turning the corner and joining elite quarterbacks in leading their teams to a Super Bowl run.” – Joe
He seemed to have turned that corner before his three injuries last year. If the offense has minimal injuries this year, and if Baker is protected…we should see some great play from him.
May 20th, 2026 at 10:33 am
In my eyes, barring another injury riddled season like last year, the offense should win a lot of games.
The defense should be improved, and any level of improvement is good for them at this point. They won’t be improved enough to carry the team this year, but they should be good enough to help us keep some leads.
And that will be enough for me this year. Protect some leads. Maybe a few turnovers and scores to fire the team up too.
May 20th, 2026 at 10:34 am
I hear what all are saying, and to a point, I agree. We might be lucky (or need luck) to win the division. All are citing Bowle’s long and mediocre track record and rightfully so.
But a thought crossed my mind: Isn’t Bowles due for a surprise season? It happens. 10, 11, 12 wins? It’s possible.
I think this team “identity” is much more competitive than last year, and that has to be worth something — as in better play and a few more wins.
May 20th, 2026 at 11:32 am
Backs against the wall 11+ I think they beat burrow and lose to Cleveland, right the ship ,bang off enough wins to get into the playoffs
May 20th, 2026 at 12:48 pm
Feeling a bit more optimistic these days I think they have some dawgs on the defense now and the oline is healthy with a experienced play caller can not wait to see Bain out there wreaking offenses. Go bucs.
May 20th, 2026 at 2:29 pm
“And Joe isn’t ready to believe the Bucs have better personnel than last year.”
————
Really Joe, you’re not ?
“If Mayfield can put this team on his back after the bye the way he did in several wins before the bye, Joe would feel a lot better.”
————–
Jack would feel a lot better if Baker doesn’t do that or have to. I’d feel a lot better with an efficient offense where the ball gets spread around and last minute heroics aren’t needed.
May 20th, 2026 at 3:14 pm
Ali has the Bucs losing 5 of their last 6. Tom has them losing 6 of their last 7. Clearly they are reflecting on what happened last year and predicting a trend. I call total BS on that. I’d also say that some of the off-season changes made are kind of subtle – depth, attitude, leadership, etc. I know Baker, we will gt to know Anzalone, Bain and Gainwell. I predict they will not allow a losing repeat. 10-7.