BSPN Projects Rueben Bain’s 2026 Sack Total
May 23rd, 2026
Rookie expectations.
Rueben Bain is no YaYa Diaby (yet).
Who says? A BSPN-type.
Mike Clay, a spreadsheeter, looked at the NFL rookies and tried to project how some will perform. Many Bucs fans will be glum at what Clay’s software spit out while projecting how many times the Bucs’ first-round pick will put a quarterback on his arse.
He has Bain getting 5.6 sacks.
Rookies are averaging 106.0 sacks per season over the past decade, but the past two seasons (84.5 in 2024 and 100.0 in 2025) have been far below that average.
James Pearce Jr. led the way with 10.5 sacks last season, but no other rookie had more than 5.5, and only two others reached 5.0 (Jalon Walker and Nic Scourton). Micah Parsons’ 13.0 sacks in 2021 was the most by a rookie over the past decade, and only five other freshmen (including Pearce) reached double-digits. Four of the five were first-rounders. (Maxx Crosby was a fourth-rounder in 2019.)
That’s especially relevant considering that five edge rushers were drafted in the first round this year and is the reason why none of them is projected to clear 7.6 sacks. In fact, each sack projection above would rank in the top 25 among first-round picks over the past five years. All five edge rushers will likely be busy, but let’s keep statistical expectations in check.
Clay has David Bailey (7.6) and Malachi Lawrence getting more sacks than Bain. Bailey was drafted before Bain, Lawrence was taken by Dallas in Round 1 after Bain.
It’s always a long shot for Bain or any rookie to get double-digit sacks. So Joe isn’t expecting it.
Another reason not to expect Bain to blow up completely this fall? This Bucs defense too often lassos edge rushers.
May 23rd, 2026 at 8:15 am
Another reason he won’t hit double digits is that Coach Bowles doesn’t make his stat cards with enough space for double digits in the sack column.
May 23rd, 2026 at 8:25 am
Well, Micah Parsons plays LB.
May 23rd, 2026 at 8:27 am
Someone this year will get double digit sacks. I don’t care who it it.
May 23rd, 2026 at 8:30 am
Unfortunately 5 sacks sounds about right to me. He had what..9.5 sacks against college kids last year. Mesidor had 12.5 sacks. I just have this gnawing feeling that maybe expectations for Bain are too high.
May 23rd, 2026 at 8:38 am
NFL football is a TEAM game. The question is how many sacks will the team get. If a team averages 3 sacks a game, they likely will make the playoffs.
May 23rd, 2026 at 8:43 am
I really wanted the Bucs to add a beastly DT to our DLine this past draft (Kayden McDonald) but a beastly OLB (Rueben Bain) is a nice alternative. Especially since we’ve added some quality ‘beef’ to our interior DLine to go with Vea (6’4″ & 347 lbs) … Robinson (6’3″ & 320 lbs), RNR (6’2″ & 307 lbs) and the rookie Capehart (6’4″ & 313 lbs). That’s a significant increase in size (and nastiness) over what we’ve fielded these past couple years.
I’m convinced that the Bucs will be able to generate a much better pass rush this season. My hope is that Bowles let’s the beasts be beasts, and lessens his tendency to generate the pass rush by blitzing too much. Let the Front 4-5 ‘do their thing’ (attack) so the Back 6-7 can create better coverage.
May 23rd, 2026 at 8:47 am
Predict Mesidor will have 8 ,,,,,, he will maybe be a better pass rusher in the NFL.
May 23rd, 2026 at 8:51 am
Who is the D/C of the Bucs? hahahaha
May 23rd, 2026 at 9:04 am
Under Todd, I would say 5. If Todd changes a little and doesnt drop him in coverage, then maybe 8-10.
LEAVE HIM ALONE TODD!!! LET THE MAN EAT!!!!
May 23rd, 2026 at 9:53 am
Don’t worry folks, Kancey will come out of the tub for 11 sacks this yr. Then quickly return once the ink dries on a new guaranteed homer-blue-licht-special contract
May 23rd, 2026 at 10:48 am
An epiphany for Coach Bowles? 10.5 sacks, period.
May 23rd, 2026 at 11:07 am
Defense Rules, I really doubt they blitz less. They drafted Scott, who was one of the best bltzers in the draft.
But…by adding Bain, we should now see a low more pressure on opposing QBs as well…not just because of him, but because opposing Offenses not have to stop both end of the line, and the tough interior.
And Scott specializes in hiding behind big guys and then shasing down the QB.
I also believe our secondary will be better after a year of healing and development.
Special teams will become a weapon this year…more trick plays. Better coverage and blocking.
May 23rd, 2026 at 11:20 am
4
Baine is going to get dominated by NFL OT.
He’ll get 2 from an OL/QB mistake. He’ll get 2 from Vea flushing the QB into him.
5.5 is optimistic and generous.
May 23rd, 2026 at 11:25 am
Bonzai … ‘I really doubt they blitz less’.
You’re probably right now that I relook at how much we blitzed last year. We only blitzed 276 times last season (average 16 per game), way down from the 461 blitzes in 2024 (27 per game average) or 341 blitzes (20 per game average) in 2023.
Seems strange that the lowest number of blitzes Todd called as Bucs’ DC was in 2022 when he took over as HC (249 blitzes … less than 15 per game average). That’s the year we lost Suh & JPP, and Shaq only played half a season. Go back to Todd’s 1st year here (2019) and we had 613 blitzes (over 38 blitzes per game average). Huge difference.
2022 BTW was the year we had the best Pass Defense in his 7 years (ranked #9 in Yards) but the worst Run Defense (ranked #15). Obviously he was experimenting with some different defensive concepts (less priority on Run Defense & more on Pass Defense?) but he apparently didn’t like the results.
May 23rd, 2026 at 11:37 am
AHHHH ,personal maybe …Here’s your sign!
May 23rd, 2026 at 11:39 am
That’s a better than average projection for a rookie edge rusher. I’ll take it – especially if the other edge rushers the Bucs have do that or better.
May 23rd, 2026 at 11:44 am
5-6 sacks sounds about right for Bain.
He’s more of a ‘pressures’ guy.
Hopefully Yaya’s sack numbers increase bcuz of good pressure from Bain on the other side now.
May 23rd, 2026 at 11:45 am
For the record, I’d put money on Mesidor having more sacks in his NFL career than Bain.
May 23rd, 2026 at 12:08 pm
Mesidor could end up being injury prone… hard to get those sacks in the ice tub.
Mesador could be a great pass rusher if he says healthy, but we will see. He’s already pretty old. Bain will have more sacks in his career than Mesidor for two reasons.
1. He’s pretty tough and not injury prone in any way
2. He’s four years younger.
May 23rd, 2026 at 12:57 pm
When is comes to NFL football defense, TB thinks he is one of the elite strategists on the planet…unfortunately, he is in the distinct minority when it comes to that opinion. Give him his due, there have been times during his coaching career when he has shown flashes of brilliance, but alas, those days appear to be long gone. The man should stop drinking his own bathwater.
The league has long since caught on to his defensive strategies…they have changed their strategies to counter his, yet he cannot counter their expected response. In life, evolution of anything is a constant response to changing facts surrounding us. Todd hasn’t gotten the message.
May 23rd, 2026 at 1:15 pm
Bain Jr got 9.5 sacks last year while drawing all the Chips and Double Teams an being the main focus of Offenses game plan
May 23rd, 2026 at 1:31 pm
That would be a solid first year.
If Kancey could just stay healthy it would open up th outside for Bain and ya ya.
May 23rd, 2026 at 2:38 pm
Going to be lots of competition for sacks.
Yaya, Bain, Vita, Cancey, Roberts, Walker, AQM, Trotter, Anzalone, SVD, Trotter, Parrish, Scott.
Dude just needs to play the run and do what he did in college and we’ll be fine 👍🏼