“Implied Probability” Bucs Go DL Or TE At No. 15
April 7th, 2026
Bucs GM Jason Licht.
The term “implied probability” may as well, for Joe, be called “throw [it] against the wall and see if it sticks.”
The Twitter account of someone who goes by the handle of “@fb_insights” usually has pretty good statistical football insights. In this case, it has both good and bad.
Joe has no idea who is behind this Twitter account, and Joe has no idea where he/she got this data or if he/she put it together. It has obvious intel on the Bucs’ draft targets at No. 15 and some asinine analysis.
For example, the highest chance of the Bucs picking at No. 15 is either defensive line or edge rush. Joe has already detailed how the Bucs’ defensive line is thinner than most think.
Edge rush? That’s obvious.
The No. 2 position is tight end. A lot of Bucs fans get angry when this is mentioned, but the Bucs are a field-stretching tight end away from potentially having a dominant offense. That’s the only weak link on the offense.
And here comes the asinine. The Bucs’ No. 3 position to draft would be, per @fb_insights, offensive line.
Pardon Joe for wiping the tears after laughing so hard.
Unless there’s a blockbuster trade, the Bucs are not drafting any offensive lineman at No. 15. @fb_insights admitted he/she reads the PFF tribe and only the PFF tribe would try to make a sober argument the Bucs may draft an offensive lineman at No. 15.
(And this is also why NFL general managers howl in both laughter and outrage at the PFF tribe’s dumb@ss offensive line grades.)
Where would this offensive lineman play? Are the Bucs going to bench Tristan Wirfs? Are the Bucs going to bench Luke Goedeke, who just signed a big contract last year? Are the Bucs going to bench Cody Mauch? Are the Bucs going to bench Ben Bredeson, who is in the middle of a newish three-year contract? Are the Bucs going to bench Graham Barton?
The answer to all five questions is “Hell, no!”
Don’t believe Joe? Just go back to when Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht said from the combine that the Bucs’ offensive line is the strongest position group on the team. He said it twice, both for #NFLMedia as a whole, and on the “Ira Kaufman Podcast.”
Now Joe can easily see Licht drafting a guard on the third day of the draft. Bucs backup guards were trash last year.
Yes, Joe knows the Bucs re-signed Dan Feeney. That doesn’t mean he will make the 53-man roster.
Market implied probabilities of the first position that teams could draft in April pic.twitter.com/oIUUF0USrn
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 31, 2026
April 7th, 2026 at 12:25 am
No way to TE.
That would be a major disappointment. They have a very good all-around tight end. They don’t have ILB and edge and they need another CB
April 7th, 2026 at 12:33 am
and…… No one in the media saw the Bucs drafting a WR with their first pick last year.
Say… how is Cody Mach’s knee doing/going to be…. In the Last year of his contract…. Can you catch my drift?
Do , does Fred Flintstone subscribe to drafting the best player available at 15 or tip the scales to needs?
The Bucs are and have been lacking in Explosive offensive talent, sure they have had great chain movers and low on the totem pole of bell ringers… in a League tilted towards bell ringers !
April 7th, 2026 at 1:39 am
Bredeson and Mauch are still question marks after their injuries….thats why i hope we draft Ioane….Bredeson can be our swing backup. Unless sonny gets within reach and we trade up.
April 7th, 2026 at 1:42 am
Mauch told Joe last week of season he was ahead and schedule and expected to be 100 percent for OTAs, sans any setbacks. Joe had heard nothing but good things about Mauch’s recovery since.
April 7th, 2026 at 1:44 am
It’s sensible. Like an old gearbox, Bredeson might never return to full health, and we have NO depth along the interior. Mauch is due extension, followed by Barton, leaving no O-line players on rookie contracts. Drafting a stud guard on a five year deal like Seattle did last year makes the world of sense to me. And if the difference between say Messidor and R Mason Thomas isn’t that big, we pick up an EDGE in round 2.
April 7th, 2026 at 1:45 am
Again… you win games by scoring more points than the other team.
Those are literally the rules, you can look it up and everything.
With that said, I personally would not draft Sadiq at #15, but I’m not going to throw a fit if the Bucs do that. There is ZERO depth after Otton at TE – Durham is not an NFL caliber player and Culp is still very much a lottery ticket that causal fans are much higher on than the team is. Ko, meanwhile, is pretty much a dedicated blocking specialist. So TE is a need, for sure.
Ideally the Bucs could trade back, pick up an extra 2nd and/or 3rd rounder, then that would make things a lot easier as there’s a good number of receiving TE’s in this draft.
April 7th, 2026 at 2:45 am
I really hope we trade back. I want Rodriguez if way trade back.
He’s ready I have been talking about him since the college season ended.
Two 2nd would be ideal.
April 7th, 2026 at 5:11 am
Better be D in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds. If the Bucs trade back and get an extra 3rd round pick, I’m OL with using it on WR, TE or G.
April 7th, 2026 at 6:00 am
We need probably six starters on defense to get to a championship level so TE can maybe wait.
April 7th, 2026 at 6:15 am
If they are fine with Mauch, Brederson, Wirfs knees
Then l see no reason why we shouldn’t draft CB Jermod McCoy
If the 20 year old CB fall to us, it was about 15 months when he had his surgery
April 7th, 2026 at 6:15 am
Yes TE no DL
April 7th, 2026 at 7:01 am
I am glad to hear that Mauch is ahead of schedule and hope that is true.
But my gosh with Bucs injury news, we have always heard that the players were ahead of schedule.
Godwin, Wirfs, Jensen, Dennis, Bucky, Kancey, etc.
April 7th, 2026 at 7:04 am
By the way, I am with Munch on the whole TE analysis.
Hoping we don’t take the TE at 15 but TE is a clear need and if somehow, we end up with the number 1 TE on the board with explosive ability than that can help us win games too.
There are lots of ways to win in the NFL — there is not just one way to build a team.
April 7th, 2026 at 7:21 am
Rod Munch … ‘Again… you win games by scoring more points than the other team.’
And again Rod, you ALSO win by allowing your opponent to score fewer points than you score.
There have actually been 5 NFL games in history that ended with a final score of 2-0.
April 7th, 2026 at 7:25 am
The same guy that said Braswell is gonna shock the league. The guy who who thinks of Evans as family, only to watch his “family” abandon him in his hr of need. The same guy that saw all pro pay in McCullom. Come on Joe. You should know by now that Licht is lying to you whenever his mouth is moving. That canned ham of a head 8s completely out of touch with his team and th3 community
April 7th, 2026 at 7:25 am
HC Grover … ‘Yes TE no DL’.
Drafting a NT/DT named Kayden McDonald in Rnd 1 would have a much bigger & a longer lasting impact than drafting a TE named Kenyon Sadiq would.
April 7th, 2026 at 7:32 am
Wait. Scoring points is the game’s objective? I thought it was the coaches head judging by comments in this here forum
April 7th, 2026 at 7:36 am
I agree Defense Rules. We need to fortify our DL and ILB and CB. They are musts with this draft.
April 7th, 2026 at 7:42 am
TE in the first round is illegal
April 7th, 2026 at 7:43 am
And for all those looking to fall back, since becoming the Bucs GM in 2014, Jason Licht has traded back in the first round three times (2016, 2018, and 2022).
o 2016: Traded back from No. 9 to No. 11 and selected CB Vernon Hargreaves at #11, then Noah Spence at #39 & Roberto Aquayo at #59. At #9 Chicago picked Leonard Floyd, who’s had a pretty good career as an OLB.
o 2018: Traded back from No. 7 to No. 12, acquiring extra second-round picks. We drafted Vita Vea at #11, then MJ Stewart & Carlton Davis. So we picked up those 3, and the Bills drafted Josh Allen at #7, who’s been their franchise QB ever since. Probably a push?
o 2022: Traded out of the first round entirely, moving from No. 27 to No. 33. At #27 Jacksonville drafted LB Devon Lloyd (love to have him right now), and we ended up with Edge JTS. Nuff said?
April 7th, 2026 at 7:46 am
Anyone with eyes or even 1 eye could see the Defense just was not competitive the for the 2nd half of the season. It was like someone who could not catch a cold at the South Pole. Please Draft to build the Front 7, then the back end group that has the bored McCollum, time to fix the defense.
April 7th, 2026 at 7:50 am
Sadiq is a media made darling with low production in college and significantly overrated. The first four picks will be these positions in no particular order, ILB NT
Edge, CB depending who is on the board. Possibility a G in round 4 or 5 with extra picks. They should look at Cole Payton QB in rounds 5-6 if a available as he is a developmental player who could follow Baker after his new 3 year contract
April 7th, 2026 at 8:17 am
ahead of the 2025 draft Licht said WR room was a strength of the team and he still draft EE2!!!!
smoke in mirrors at its finest!!!
Im think JL trades down and selects OG with our first pick….why?…Cody Mauch…
he may be “cleared” by the docs, but so was CG14 after his injury and look what happened…he still wasnt 100% and it showed
Bucs will select OG early in the draft to avoid what happened last year with the OL
GO BUCS!!!!
April 7th, 2026 at 8:29 am
I’m trying to think of a draft EVER, when the Bucs selected a guy everyone was slobbering over. Ok, Jameis, but that was obvious. I desperately wanted is to draft Trey McBride a few years ago, (post Gronk), but NOOO0Oooo… we draft this Logan Hall guy with the second
April 7th, 2026 at 8:29 am
DR,
Love your posts normally, and I see where you coming from… cautionary tale and such. But you just can’t tie picking a player you shouldn’t have to trading back. No matter what kind of trade they make, they’ve done a great job at drafting in the second and third rounds and even lower. There’s no good excuse for picking a guy in the lower first round you shouldn’t have. They were bad draft picks and we all know it’s 50/50 with the draft so you can’t really say it’s because he traded back. Those things are not related. All your posts really proves is that Licht made mistakes (especially with Hargreaves, for all Todd’s flaws I don’t think Bowles would have let that happen since he likes to taller CBs) like all the other GMs do sometimes. I’m fine with that trading back if they pick the right players this time. Maybe trade out of the first round completely since their trade record is iffy at best in round one over the years (kidding).
In that graph above I would swap LB for TE then I would be more in agreement with it. It’s not just that they have TE ranked so high, I think LB is still a need. The new hair band were solid pickups but those were one year deals on older band members.
April 7th, 2026 at 8:32 am
Anzalone has a two year deal… doesn’t make any younger, though.
April 7th, 2026 at 8:35 am
Defense Rules Says:
“Drafting a NT/DT named Kayden McDonald in Rnd 1 would have a much bigger & a longer lasting impact than drafting a TE named Kenyon Sadiq would.”
Why?
Both are athletic college freaks that had only 1 good year of college production. Both are young but by all reports seem to be dedicated to their professions and work to do the little things to improve their game.
Whether either becomes elite at their position seems a little questionable at this time but again both have a chance for long term careers.
We have a Stud DT, another 1st round DL, a few other solid pros on the DL.
We have an average NFL starter TE, and then a bunch of guys as TEs.
Neither DT or TE or considered to be elite high draft positions — it seems to me one can make a pretty comparable case for either of these gentlemen to be a pick.
April 7th, 2026 at 8:44 am
A GM proven to be very good at building an OL would likely be predisposed to take Ioane, with the philosophy of keeping the team’s elite unit elite.
April 7th, 2026 at 9:05 am
Watch Daddy Sling It Says:
April 7th, 2026 at 8:44 am
A GM proven to be very good at building an OL would likely be predisposed to take Ioane, with the philosophy of keeping the team’s elite unit elite.
BINGO!!!!!!
Ioane or Kadyn Proctor are the way to go with our first pick!!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!
April 7th, 2026 at 9:45 am
I hope they don’t draft a dt in the first round I would rather them draft akheem mesidor.
April 7th, 2026 at 9:52 am
It’s clear that at number 15, there is a strong implied probability that the Bucs will draft a football player.
April 7th, 2026 at 10:45 am
Defense Rules Says:
April 7th, 2026 at 7:43 am
And for all those looking to fall back, since becoming the Bucs GM in 2014, Jason Licht has traded back in the first round three times (2016, 2018, and 2022)….
Good Analysis…. Could it be said that Licht is not very good in the 1st round but sure can come up with some gems in the later rounds.
To be honest, you need 1st rounders to be hits not misses.
April 7th, 2026 at 11:50 am
That beast guard from Penn State would look good in Pewter. Mauch and Bredeson are both in contract years. Many consider this guy to be the best offensive lineman in the draft. He’s very physical and has a nasty streak. He hasn’t given up a sack since 2023.
April 7th, 2026 at 1:14 pm
Licht isn’t good in the first round?
He drafted one definite HOF Mike Evans
He drafted one of our better IDL ever in Vita Vea
He drafted a likely HOF in Tristan Wirfs
So in a seven year period… with seven picks (i think) he drafted TWO HOF players, and a 3rd top of the league player in Vea. That’s three HUGE hits.
April 7th, 2026 at 1:21 pm
bakerfan … ‘you need 1st rounders to be hits not misses.’
Most assuredly. I give JL credit though, he’s gotten much better at drafting since BA arrived in 2019. Maybe it just took him several years to get HIS scouting team together. Or maybe he just found it a lot easier & more fruitful to work with BA then Bowles when drafting. Reason doesn’t really matter nearly as much as the results, and we’ve drafted very well IMO starting in 2019 (2018 wasn’t terrible either).
To me, the Top-3 rounds are critical. Teams NEED to get starters & key rotational players from that group. Every time you miss & the guy isn’t worth signing to a 2nd contract, that costs you either another high draft pick to replace him oryou have to go out & ‘buy’ a relatively expensive FA to take his place.