Fun With Pass Rush Win-Rates
April 8th, 2026
Miami edge Akheem Mesidor.
Before Joe gets rolling here, clarity is required.
A pass rush win-rate can be both tricky and susceptible to numbers-twisting to prove a point.
When it comes to win-rate in the trenches, that only documents that a defender was able to shed a block, or an offensive lineman was able to keep a defender out of the backfield. It doesn’t measure whether the defender is quick or slow to shed a block, or if he is good at a win-rate, if he’s able to close the deal and get a tackle or a sack.
It seems a lot of Bucs fans are heavy panting for this Akheem Mesidor, an edge rusher from Miami. Well, it seems his win-rate on edge rushes is OK but not exceptional.
(Please re-read the previous two paragraphs before flipping out thinking this is ragebait.)
What sticks out to Joe is that a guy Joe is interested in being a second round pick, Oklahoma’s R Mason Thomas. He has a better win-rate than Mesidor. And Thomas played in the SEC and Mesidor played in the shamefully weak ACC.
Again, Joe is not trying to ragebait anyone, only noting the interesting data.
The question about Mesidor isn’t if he can play on the NFL level. It’s if the Bucs are smart enough to also hire his position coach at Miami, Hall of Fame sack artist Jason Taylor, and give Taylor full autonomy to coach up Mesidor as he sees fit with zero interference.
EDGE prospects career pass rush win rate vs draft night age percentiles pic.twitter.com/y4wALuWsTg
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) April 7, 2026
April 8th, 2026 at 12:46 am
Wow…Howell is about as good as Bain or Bailey. Shocked.
April 8th, 2026 at 1:48 am
It takes its brain out to play with and accidentally damages it.
April 8th, 2026 at 4:11 am
Know you like to keep beating the hire Taylor drum, but it’s not happening this season. Def be interested next season though when the new DC is hired.
April 8th, 2026 at 4:13 am
Like Thomas, but also like Derrick Moore as a later round option.
April 8th, 2026 at 4:24 am
My only problem with Akheem Mesidor, is his age . only because he was playing with a lot of people younger than him the difference in ages between late teens and 25 is major both physically and mentally just as example the kid out of Auburn is only 20 projected to be a first round draft pick would Akeem been a first round draft pick at 20 🤷♂️
April 8th, 2026 at 5:30 am
Nah we’ll probably draft McCoy from Tennessee. Sure the dude can be good when he’s healthy & he missed all of last year with a torn ACL. He’s our type of player. We like the injured.
April 8th, 2026 at 5:40 am
Invite Jason Taylor to intern with the Bucs this Summer regardless if we pick Mesidor or not.
April 8th, 2026 at 6:27 am
Using the same references Joe, how did our existing Edge guys do in college Joe? MAYBE we’ve got a diamond in the rough (or 2 or 3) in our current OLB group that’ll break out this year IF we turn them loose to pass rush AND provide them better support (via a better interior pass rush).
April 8th, 2026 at 7:17 am
I’ll take DT Kayden McDonald in 1st, then take DE Derrick Moore (Michigan) in second. We just got more physical. DE Moore is going to be a better all-around pro then in college with size, length, and a real bull rush and multiple pass rush moves. He is right there next to the top on the chart and has the stats.
April 8th, 2026 at 7:27 am
Trade the second round pick and move up.
Or drafts and offensive lineman.
Second round draft picks for the defense never seem to work.
April 8th, 2026 at 8:00 am
Interesting.
April 8th, 2026 at 8:09 am
R Mason Thomas from OU has a motor that never quits…
would love him in rd2
GO BUCS!!!!
April 8th, 2026 at 8:46 am
Howell, Jacas, Thomas, Parker. I would be happy with any of them in the 1st or 2nd.
April 8th, 2026 at 9:09 am
These are career stats, so that needs to be understood for each player. These college edge players have varied histories in college. For example, Mesidor finished strong in his senior year but his early career was so so. On the other hand, Faulk at Auburn is very young and had great numbers two years ago, but not last season. Well his coaches moved him to DT from DE so his numbers went down.
We need to look at Faulk. He was an outstanding team leader at only 20, so a Licht type of guy. A great DE at run-stopping, but not a refined pass rusher. I’m torn as he seems like a 4-3 DE and not a 3-4 OLB.
April 8th, 2026 at 11:30 am
Based on that chart the value of a guy like Sutton or Lawrence in the 2nd round with a Big ol DT in the first looks better and better.
April 8th, 2026 at 12:17 pm
Amen, GABucBall.
April 8th, 2026 at 1:45 pm
JOE I love tha idea of signing Jason Taylor but don’t stop there let Jason coach up yaya , walker and shock the world brasewell lol but seriously we need to sign some kind of pass rushing skill coach who has bin there and some that to help all the rushers.