Keeping Anthony Nelson
February 15th, 2026
Anthony Nelson holds the ball aloft after walking into the end zone with his first NFL pick-six at New Orleans.
UPDATED: The Bucs need to count nickels because they must spend a bunch of Team Glazer loot on defense and maybe more than they want on a backup quarterback.
(Joe can just hear the Sage of Tampa Bay sports, Ira Kaufman, yelping in delight, saying, “That’s it! A backup quarterback and a running back who catches three-yard passes in the flat. That’s winning football!”)
If the Bucs are truly serious about doing damage in the playoffs, not just winning eight games and the NFC title and being one-and-done in the playoffs, the front-seven needs to work on a makeover. You can’t do that with just rookies, not with the Bucs need toing fill so many holes. So that means buying players.
They aren’t cheap.
To that end, NFL data scientist Sam Hoppen on his Substack page tossed out the idea that maybe Anthony Nelson could be a cap casualty. Per Hoppen, Nelson is due a hair south of $2 million this fall. In reality, Hoppen is wrong, Nelson is due about $5 million for 2026.
The Bucs also don’t have a ton of great options, potentially leaving Nelson on the chopping block. He did have his best [season] since 2021 this year, but he’s still just a rotational edge rusher.
Nelson is one of these “tweeners.” He’s not a starting edge rusher and he’s not built to dominate against physical teams. Over the years, Joe has seen Nelson fully taken out of games by physical teams.
But Nelson is a damn smart player and when he is not blasted by physical opponents, he always seems to be in the right spot. Remember his game-saving forced fumble two years ago at Carolina? And last year he went wilding against the slimy Saints in New Orleans.
Would Joe try to restructure Nelson’s contract? Sure, but it takes two to tango. Joe thinks Nelson is a valuable backup.
If it comes between being able to get a starting stud edge rusher (Maxx Crosby, Trey Hendrickson) or keep a quality backup (Nelson), of course Joe is going to side with the stud starter.
February 15th, 2026 at 12:40 am
David Walker will probably replace him.
February 15th, 2026 at 12:54 am
I’ve always thought he was a solid rotational guy. Can’t buy much with 1.9 mil anymore. I feel like it’s like of a steal for a glue guy like that. Obviously you want to get a stud opposite diaby and add another solid guy on the mix, but I feel Nelson is worth that easily
February 15th, 2026 at 1:40 am
No need for expensive free agents. Bowles has proven to be an excellent head coach and defensive coordinator who develops young, inexpensive players. It’s why he was retained and everyone else was fired. It’s why he’s still wearing the double hats of HC and DC. And it’s why we now have Two Todds.
Bucs haven’t been this well positioned for success in a long time.
Super Bowles, baby.
February 15th, 2026 at 2:08 am
This is a disaster area.
February 15th, 2026 at 3:00 am
What? Why?
Nelson makes $4.5M this year…. (fair IMO)
His 2026 cap hit is $5.366M
His dead cap hit (if cut) is $3.464M
“Saving” $1.9M if you get rid of him…..
Which leaves a hole on the roster that must be filled….
Which begs the question – What kind of FA player will you be able to sign for $1.9M?
Oh, and BTW – there’s 3 dummy years added to the end of Nelson’s contract totaling $2.598M…. Those would escalate and have to be paid in 2026 if you tell Anthony to hit the road….
So the Bucs would LOSE $600k in 2026 cap space by cutting Anthony Nelson…. and still have to pay for a replacement….
I’m no math wizard – but that sounds like a pretty silly suggestion that didn’t even merit consideration, much less a full article treating said silly suggestion seriously….
February 15th, 2026 at 4:23 am
@ Pickgrin
The time between the Super Bowl and free agency IS the “silly suggestion” time of year. Buckle up, this year is likely to be a doozy.
February 15th, 2026 at 4:55 am
Pickgrin … ‘So the Bucs would LOSE $600k in 2026 cap space by cutting Anthony Nelson…. and still have to pay for a replacement.’
Thanks Pickgrin. Quite a different result in analysis from what ‘NFL data scientist Sam Hoppen’ presented on his Substack page. Thankfully the Bucs have guys like Assistant GM Mike Greenberg who’ll keep them straight when analyzing numbers on players like Anthony Nelson.
February 15th, 2026 at 5:04 am
Six months ago this was a super bowl ready roster, at least according to some. Now it’s got more holes than a cheese grater. I wonder what happened? It’s a mystery that may never be solved.
February 15th, 2026 at 5:26 am
So many bloated contracts on this team. We’re not getting our moneys worth. Now I’m reading spend more on this roster by extending YaYa early. Unlike Zyon, make him earn it. Ship out the ones who aren’t earning it. Licht, and Bowles doing the same thing expecting better results. We’re not going anywhere with the same players.
February 15th, 2026 at 6:16 am
Keep him….gonna be a 4 to 6 win year anyway, so it dont matter….the mathing maths with todd still here.