Back Off About Baker Mayfield’s Fourth Quarter Picks
January 29th, 2026
Misguided stat.
Joe, like many Bucs fans, was triggered by the number of picks Baker Mayfield threw in the fourth quarter this year.
It was enough, along with the Bucs dropping seven of their final nine games to miss the playoffs, to get Joe starting to think maybe Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht should be studying all the top-shelf quarterbacks this fall that are eligible to come out in the 2027 draft. Yes, 2027.
Those November and December losses need to be studied, obviously. But after doing some digging, Joe is thinking maybe the fourth-quarter picks, specifically this past season, are a bit overblown.
(Most statheads dismiss quarterback won-loss records as trivial fodder for subpar sports radio yakkers. And Joe understands. However, as Princeton grad and former NFL offensive lineman Ross Tucker said, if a quarterback is the most important player on the field, how can you then trivialize quarterback wins and losses?)
Fourth-quarter picks are not good, let’s get that straight. But when Joe pulled up stats on all starting quarterbacks, it certainly put Mayfield’s picks into context.
Mayfield had four fourth-quarter picks. So too did Bo Nix. And if he didn’t bust up his ankle in the divisional round, he’d likely be starting in a Super Bowl a week from Sunday.
Know who else had four fourth-quarter picks this year? Sam Darnold. And he is starting in the Super Bowl a week from Sunday.
Bet Bucs fans couldn’t sign a trade agreement fast enough if the Bucs could get Dak Prescott or Pat Mahomes straight up for Mayfield, right? Well, those two guys each had five fourth-quarter picks this past season.
And Joe had a Mayfield stat from a few years ago come across his Twitter feed, where the gist was Mayfield was horrible throwing picks in the fourth quarter in his career. Yes, Mayfield is not great at protecting the ball in the fourth quarter. He’s hardly alone.
Since the start of the 2020 season in the fourth quarter, Mayfield has 19 picks, fourth overall. Again, not something to brag about. Guess who leads the league this decade in picks? Joe Burrow. Guess who is third? Mahomes.
Joe doesn’t believe there is one sober Bucs fan who wouldn’t trade Mayfield even-up for Burrow or Mahomes.
Are Mayfield’s fourth-quarter picks good? Hell, no! But they’re not a career- or season-killer either.
Losing seven of your last nine games is a killer, though.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:06 am
Yet another lets make baker feel good article, to pump him up, he is what he is! He even said that he was “TRASH” let’s go Bucs! Bring in a new QB!!!!
January 29th, 2026 at 7:15 am
I’m sober as a judge Joe. I wouldn’t trade Mayfield for Burrow or Mahomes. Now if you were talking about upgrading the QB position I’d take 3 or 4 QBs but they’d all be under 25 years old. Maye, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, maybe Bo Nix and I would take that Mendoza kid.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:21 am
Give baker a respectable defense and I guarantee those late game picks for away. Keep asking him.to be superman and bail out Bowles trash defense and thats what you get.
Same with Jameis. Hes never QBd a team with a solid defense. Hes always trying to save the day. Both really good qbs in bad situations asked to be hero
January 29th, 2026 at 7:27 am
Baker is a 50/50 QB half his games he plays great half he plays sub par, look at his Bucs record, we can do worse, he’s the definition of average
January 29th, 2026 at 7:29 am
The 4th Quarter pick against the Lions in the Playoffs was a game killer.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:29 am
🤣🤣🤣
Cope however you need to but it’s hilarious to me the lengths some will go to put lipstick on this pig. I mean it’s truly incredible. Everyone can feel it, and I’m guessing Baker feels it too (which is why hes so snappy on twitter). Its the feeling that this is his last year with the Bucs. The excuses are running out. Losing 7 of 9 games is horrific for ANY QB and comparing him to SB winning QBs doesnt disprove my point. Typically to make Baker look better you have to compare him to better QBs. Baker has similar stats with other good and great QBs but not similar results.
I’m so excited for next season. I’m eager to see what type of fight this HC and roster has.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:33 am
The 4th Q pick was designed for fat, couch potatoes to pretend they are talent evaluators or to demonstrate limited vocabularies as in “Mayfield sucks.” Tampa Bay defense,like in all other things, is poor in generating turnovers; so when the offense creates one it is the end of the game. Rarely does the defense stop any possession so Bucs fans are geared to expect the worse off an interception. It never occurs to either Bowles or Bucs fat guy fans that the defense needs to be fixed. Would love to see NFL stats on teams forcing the other to punt.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:34 am
I’m sorry but when you’re going for a game winning drive, and you throw a pick, it matters.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:36 am
It would be malpractice if the Bucks didn’t select a quarterback and the 27 draft. Even if Baker is still playing at a high level you need that other guy.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:40 am
No matter what Baker Mayfield does in 2026—whether he plays competent, scrappy, or even above his pay grade—the Buccaneers are still captained by Todd Bowles, and that alone defines their ceiling. Bowles’ teams don’t lose because of quarterback chaos; they lose because of philosophical decay. His brand of football is risk-averse, reactive, and fundamentally out of sync with a league that rewards aggression, adaptability, and speed of decision-making. You can survive average quarterback play in today’s NFL. You cannot survive passive leadership.
Baker Mayfield is not elite, but he is functional. He can execute a system, elevate when protected, and steal games when momentum is allowed to breathe. Todd Bowles suffocates momentum. His conservative game management—punting in plus territory, playing for field position while trailing, shrinking in high-leverage moments—turns winnable games into slow, methodical defeats. Under Bowles, the margin for error becomes microscopic, and quarterbacks like Mayfield are forced to be perfect just to stay competitive. That’s not leadership; that’s abdication.
Even Bowles’ supposed strength—defense—has eroded into reputation without results. His schemes are complex but rigid, increasingly exploited by modern offenses that pre-snap diagnose and post-snap punish hesitation. The irony is brutal: Bowles demands mistake-free execution from his quarterback while his own defense routinely collapses in the very moments it’s designed to dominate. When that happens, the blame quietly slides downhill—to the QB, to injuries, to “execution”—never upward, where it belongs.
Baker Mayfield will be judged loudly. Todd Bowles will fail quietly. And that is precisely why the 2026 Buccaneers are doomed—not because Mayfield can’t be great, but because Bowles ensures no one ever can be.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:46 am
Jameis also threw picks early and often getting us in the hole from the getgo.
we were down two or three scores in the first half all to often.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:47 am
The problem is the defense couldn’t hold a lead
January 29th, 2026 at 7:49 am
If you’re not Tom Brady or Brock Purdy then it’s pretty cut and dried. The vast majority of NFL QBs were first round picks and most were early first rounders. Bunch of first picks. We sure shouldn’t waste a draft pick on a QB. We need a backup QB that’s a proven NFL winner. Bridgewater has proven he can win against NFL defenses, but if he hasn’t gotten his legs back- and he might just be working hard to get them back- then let’s find another proven backup. If we should lose again like what happened last year then Bowles and Baker won’t survive anyway. Then you might get lucky with a fairly early first round pick.
January 29th, 2026 at 7:57 am
If the defense was competent, maybe Mayfield wouldn’t feel the need to play hero ball.
The root cause is Todd Bowles and his defense. Period.
For the guy saying “Get A New QB”. Name one that’s available that is better than Baker Mayfield right now. I’ll wait.
January 29th, 2026 at 8:05 am
Fourth quarter picks are like fourth quarter points: the same as any other quarter. The +feel+ bigger, but they count just the same. You play to win football games, not quarters. A first quarter TD is worth the same six points as a fourth, and an interception in the first quarter hurts your odds of winning just as much as in the last. It’s only the emotional intensity that’s different.
January 29th, 2026 at 8:12 am
“If the defense was competent…”
The players are competent. The scheme they were asked to play was a very tall order. Ronde’s comments were really illuminating. You can’t expect most guys to know how to play every position and shift in and out of different positions on the fly. Regardless, once it was tried and shown to not work, and then again, and then again, and then again, it finally comes time to abort. Coach needed to tuck his tail and adapt to what works. Didn’t happen.
January 29th, 2026 at 8:15 am
The biggest gripe with Mayfield should be that he single handedly won some early season games that should have cost Bowles his job in the end. Without those late game heroics this was a four win team.
January 29th, 2026 at 8:22 am
Going to get blasted here by the “EXPERTS” but here goes.
Having only played QB in school, and a back up at that, late 4th quarter catch up forces decisions you may not otherwise make. You know its a do or die situation. Mind telling you have to make a play, got to make a play!! Clock staring you in the face. You don’t even hear the crowd. You also know everyone will put it on you if it fails.
Watching any team trying a late 4th comeback you can usually see the desparation.
Nice when it works, when it doesn’t brace yourself.
January 29th, 2026 at 8:24 am
What “Wouldn’t pay a single Buc to see this squad” said…1000% correct.
January 29th, 2026 at 8:37 am
@Statistically Insignificant Reader: Agreed – well said.
January 29th, 2026 at 8:39 am
Time to get Kyle Trask back? What does Zac thinks? We’ll find out this off season. lol
January 29th, 2026 at 8:43 am
How about how many times the defense blew the lead in the 4th quarter?
January 29th, 2026 at 8:44 am
No more negatives on anything Bucs. Lets get the Super Bowl Run Hype going. Positively! 🙂 After this Super Bowl most teams get the hype going on how they are in the running. Example:
With a couple good draft picks this team is Super Bowl Ready!
The Chicks coach will score 35 a game.
Bowles NEW defense will be top 5 in NFL.
Etc.
January 29th, 2026 at 8:58 am
Bucs will need a top 5 offense to win with Bowles putrid defense.